Tag Archives: AL03

Hurricane Chris Weakens South of Nova Scotia

Hurricane Chris weakened slowly on Wednesday as it passed well south of Nova Scotia.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Chris was located at latitude 39.6°N and longitude 63.0°W.  Chris was moving toward the northeast at 29 m.p.h. (46 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (140 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Hurricane Chris exhibited the structure of a hurricane on Thursday, but the clouds did not rise quite as high because it was over slightly cooler water.  There was still an eye at the center of circulation.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  The rainbands were weaker in the southwestern part of the hurricane because some drier air was entering that part of the circulation.  Storms in the core of the circulation were generating upper level divergence.

Hurricane Chris is likely to weaken again on Thursday.  It will start to move over much cooler water where there is less energy in the upper ocean.  In addition an upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the upper part of the hurricane.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  The shear will undercut the upper level divergence and tilt the circulation toward the northeast with height.  Hurricane Chris will start to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone when the effects of the cooler water and stronger shear begin to alter the structure of the hurricane.

The upper level trough was steering Hurricane Chris rapidly toward the northeast and that motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Chris will be near Labrador on Thursday night.  The extratropical cyclone that results from the transition of Hurricane Chris will be near Iceland during the weekend.

Chris Strengthens to a Hurricane Southeast of Cape Hatteras

Former Tropical Storm Chris strengthened to a hurricane southeast of Cape Hatteras on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Chris was located at latitude 33.7°N and longitude 72.4°W which put it about 205 miles (330 km) east-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Chris was moving toward the northeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Hurricane Chris strengthened on Tuesday when it moved northeast of cooler water Chris had mixed to the surface while it was meandering off the coast of the Carolinas.  An eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) formed at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in the eastern side of that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Chris.  The strongest rainbands were in the eastern half of the circulation.  Drier air near the western half of the circulation was contributing to the weaker bands in that part of the hurricane.  Storms in the core of the circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the north and east of the hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 95 miles (155 km) from the center.

Hurricane Chris will move through an environment favorable for intensification on Wednesday.  Chris will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  An upper level trough over the northeastern U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of the hurricane.  The winds speeds are similar at most levels and they will not generate a lot of vertical wind shear during the next 24 hours.  Hurricane Chris will strengthen on Wednesday and it could intensify rapidly.  Chris will move over cooler water when it gets north of the Gulf Stream and it will start to weaken when that occurs.

The trough over the northeastern U.S. will steer Hurricane Chris toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track Chris will move away from the coast of North Carolina.  Chris could be south of Nova Scotia in about 36 hours and it could be near Newfoundland in several days.

Elsewhere, the remnants of former Tropical Storm Beryl crossed Hispaniola and they were moving toward the southeastern Bahamas.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Former Tropical Storm Chris was located at latitude 20.1°N and longitude 72.6°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km) northeast of Port de Paix, Haiti.  It was moving toward the northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1013 mb.  A reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Wednesday if there are signs that it could be reorganizing into a tropical cyclone.

Tropical Storm Chris Develops South of Cape Hatteras, Beryl Nears Lesser Antilles

Tropical Storm Chris developed south of Cape Hatteras on Sunday morning, while Tropical Storm Beryl neared the Lesser Antilles.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Chris was located at latitude 32.9°N and longitude 75.0°W which put it about 160 miles (260 km) south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Chris was nearly stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Thunderstorms developed closer to the center of circulation on Sunday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated former Tropical Depression Three as Tropical Storm Chris.  The circulation of Chris was organizing quickly.  A band of showers and thunderstorms was wrapping around the center of circulation.  Several other rainbands were revolving around the core of the tropical storm.  The bands northwest of the center were weaker because there was drier air in that part of Chris.  The storms near the center of circulation were beginning to generate upper level divergence.

Tropical Storm Chris will remain in an environment favorable for intensification for the next two or three days.  The water in the upper portion of the Atlantic Ocean east of the Carolinas is warmer than normal.  Tropical Storm Chris will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  Chris will be southeast of an upper level trough over the northeastern quarter of the U.S. and it will be under a small upper level ridge.  The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Chris will continue to intensify and it could strengthen to a hurricane in the next day or two.

Since Tropical Storm Chris is under the small upper level ridge, the steering winds are weak.  Chris may not move much during the next 24 to 48 hours.  Tropical Storm Chris is forecast to linger of the coast of the Carolinas for several days.  Eventually an upper level trough will approach from the west and start to push Chris toward the northeast.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Beryl was nearing the Lesser Antilles on Sunday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located at latitude 14.4°N and longitude 57.9°W which put it about 210 miles (335 km) east of Martinique.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Dominica and Guadeloupe.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, St. Martin, Martinique, St. Lucia, and St. Barthelemy.

Thunderstorms continued to develop near the center of Tropical Storm Beryl on Sunday morning and the weakening trend halted at least temporarily.  Beryl remained a small tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  There were several bands of showers and thunderstorms in the eastern half of Tropical Storm Beryl.  The bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and low clouds.

Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast to into a region where the easterly winds in the lower levels are stronger.  That would increase the vertical wind shear and make it difficult for the circulation to stay vertically coherent.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  So, there will be enough energy in the upper ocean to support a tropical storm if the wind shear is not too strong.  Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast to weaken when it moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea, but that will depend on how strong the vertical shear gets.

Tropical Storm Beryl is moving south of the subtropical high over the Atlantic Ocean which is steering Beryl toward the west-northwest.  A general motion toward the west-northwest is forecast to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Beryl will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to St. Lucia, Martinique, Dominica and Guadeloupe during the next few hours,

Tropical Storm Beryl Weakens East of the Lesser Antilles

Tropical Storm Beryl weakened on Saturday as it move closer to the Lesser Antilles.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of circulation was located at latitude 13.1°N and longitude 54.3°W which put it about 495 miles (795 km) east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Dominica and Guadeloupe.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Martinique, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, Barbados and St. Lucia.

Tropical Storm Beryl moved into a region where the easterly winds in the lower level were stronger and the increased vertical wind shear started to blow the lower part of the circulation to the west of the upper part of Beryl.  It also seemed to move into an area of drier air, which caused most of the stronger thunderstorms to weaken.  There was still a well organized circulation in the lower levels, but it weakened on Saturday.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation and on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Beryl in recent hours.  If those storms persist then Beryl could strengthen again, but if they dissipate quickly, then the tropical storm could weaken again on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Beryl will move through an environment that contains factors that are favorable for intensification and other factors that are unfavorable.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It will move through an area where the lower level winds are stronger and so there will be more vertical wind shear.  There will be areas of moister air within a larger area of drier air.  If the recently developed thunderstorms persist on Sunday, then the Beryl could strengthen again.  However, if the storms dissipate in a few hours, then Tropical Storm Beryl could weaken further.  The small size of the circulation means that rapid changes in intensity can occur.

Tropical Storm Beryl was moving south of the subtropical high over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high was steering Beryl toward the west-northwest and that general motion is forecast to continue for the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Beryl could reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday night.  There is a lot of uncertainty about how strong Beryl may be when it reaches those islands.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean Tropical Depression Three spun south of Cape Hatteras.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Three was located at latitude 32.9°N and longitude 75.1°W which put it about 160 miles (260 km) south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  It was nearly stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1014 mb.

Hurricane Beryl Prompts Watches for Lesser Antilles, TD 3 Forms Southeast of Carolinas

The potential approach of Hurricane Beryl prompted the issuance of Watches for some of the Lesser Antilles on Friday afternoon, while at the same time Tropical Depression Three formed southeast of the Carolinas.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 10.6°N and longitude 47.8°W which put it about 965 miles (1555 km) east-southeast of the Leeward Islands.  Beryl was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (155 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Dominica.  Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for Martinique, Guadeloupe, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy.

The circulation of Hurricane Beryl remains very small.  The pinhole is no longer visible on satellite imagery, although strong thunderstorms continue to develop near the center of circulation.  Short narrow bands or showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.  Winds to hurricane force only extend out about 10 miles (15 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 40 miles (65 km) from the center.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It is moving south of an upper level ridge.  The ridge is producing easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  However, the wind speeds are similar at all levels and there is currently little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Beryl could intensify on Saturday, but the circulation is so small that any increase in wind shear could cause rapid weakening.

The subtropical ridge over the Atlantic Ocean is north of Hurricane Beryl and the ridge has been steering Beryl toward the west.  A motion more toward the west-northwest is forecast during the weekend.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Beryl will approach the Lesser Antilles later on Sunday.  That is the reason why the Watches were issued for some of those islands.  Beryl could still be a hurricane when it gets to the Lesser Antilles, but there is a lot of uncertainty about the intensity forecast because the hurricane is so small.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, the National Hurricane Center designated an area of low pressure southeast of the coast of the Carolinas as Tropical Depression Three.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Three was located at latitude 32.2°N and longitude 73.8°W which put it about 230 miles (370 km) south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  It was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1016 mb.  Tropical Depression Three is forecast to meander off the coast of the Carolinas during the weekend.  It could strengthen into a tropical storm and there is a chance it could intensify into a hurricane next week.

Tropical Depression Cindy Brings Stormy Weather to Southern U.S.

Tropical Depression Cindy brought stormy weather to parts of the southern U.S. on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Cindy was located at latitude 33.1°N and 93.5°W which put it about 70 miles (115 km) southwest of Little Rock, Arkansas.  Cindy was moving toward the north-northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 20 m.p.h. (30 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Storm Cindy made landfall early on Thursday morning near the border between Texas and Louisiana.  Cindy moved steadily northward during the day and it was centered over southwestern Arkansas by Thursday night.  Broad counterclockwise rotation around Cindy transported warm and very humid air over the southern U.S.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms dropped locally heavy rain in some places.  Rivers and streams were above flood stage in several southern states.  Flash Flood Warnings and Flash Flood Watches were issued for portions of the southern U.S. and Ohio River Valley.  Several tornadoes formed in the bands of thunderstorms.  A tornado in Alabama caused property damage.  Southerly winds blowing toward the shore were still causing storm surges along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Depression Cindy is forecast to move northeast toward the Ohio River Valley on Friday.  It will continue to produce locally heavy rain.  A slow moving cold front will approach the region from the west.  A band of stronger convergence could develop where the counterclockwise flow around Cindy interacts with the flow along the cold front.  Higher rainfall totals may occur where this interaction happens.  Wind shear created by the interacting weather systems could also create the potential for some tornadoes.  Tropical Depression Cindy could merge with the cold front during Friday night or Saturday.

Tropical Storm Cindy Nears Northwest Gulf Coast

Tropical Storm Cindy neared the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was located at latitude 28.6°N and longitude 93.4°W which put it about 95 miles (150 km) south-southeast of Port Arthur, Texas.  Cindy was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from San Luis Pass, Texas to Grand Isle, Louisiana.

Tropical Cyclone Cindy exhibits a hybrid structure in which a broad surface low pressure system is interacting with an upper low centered near the Upper Texas coast.  There is a distinct center of low pressure at the surface.  A band of showers and thunderstorms is northwest of the surface center.  Drier air in the middle and upper levels wraps around the southern and eastern sides of the center and there are no thunderstorms in those quadrants of the core of Tropical Storm Cindy.  A broad flow of moisture is producing bands of showers and thunderstorms in the outer portions of the eastern and northern sides of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Cindy is moving around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system centered over the Atlantic Ocean.  The subtropical high is steering Cindy toward the north-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Cindy will make landfall near the border between Texas and Louisiana on Thursday.  Cindy will turn toward the north and then the tropical storm will move northeastward on Friday.

Some locations will experience prolonged periods of rainfall and fresh water flooding will be possible in those area.  There could also be a storm surge of 3 to 6 feet (1 to 3 meters) near where the center makes landfall.  A few tornadoes could be spun up as rainbands move over the coast.

Tropical Storm Cindy Strengthens Over the Central Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Storm Cindy strengthened on Tuesday night as is moved slowly over the Central Gulf of Mexico.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was located at latitude 26.4°N and longitude 91.0°W which put it about 305 miles (495 km) southeast of Galveston, Texas.  Cindy was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from San Luis Pass, Texas to the Alabama/Florida border including Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.

Although Tropical Storm Cindy does not look very impressive on infrared satellite imagery, data from reconnaissance aircraft and surface observations from buoys and ships indicate that it has strengthened during the past few hours.  Tropical Storm Cindy displays the structure of a highly sheared tropical storm.  There are no thunderstorms near the center of circulation.  Most of the showers and thunderstorms are in bands well to the east and north of the center of circulation.  The circulation of Tropical Storm Cindy is large and winds to tropical storm force extend out about 275 miles (445 km) northeast of the center.

A combination of an upper level low to the northwest of Cindy and an upper level ridge to the east of it have generated enough upper level divergence to cause the surface pressure to decrease.  The lower pressure at the center created a bigger pressure difference with the subtropical high over the Atlantic Ocean and the stronger pressure gradient force accelerated the wind speed.  So, even though the upper level low produced enough vertical wind shear to prevent a classical process of tropical intensification in Tropical Storm Cindy, the larger scale weather features combined to produce a stronger, larger tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Cindy could intensify a little more if the large scale environment pumps out more mass and the surface pressure decreases further.  The tropical storm could also intensify if the upper low moves farther away from Cindy and the wind shear decreases.  It is unlikely that Tropical Storm Cindy will intensify into a hurricane, but there is a slight possibility that could occur before it makes landfall.

The subtropical high over the Atlantic Ocean is steering Tropical Storm Cindy slowly toward the northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for another 12 to 24 hours.  Cindy could gradually turn toward the north as it approaches the coast and the tropical storm will turn toward the northeast after it moves inland.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Cindy could approach the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night.

The large size of the circulation of Tropical Storm Cindy and its slow motion mean that locally heavy rain and flooding are the greater risks.  There is also the potential for rainbands to spin up tornadoes when they move onto the coast.  Southerly winds driving water toward the coast are already causing a storm surge along parts of the coast of Louisiana.  A storm surge of 3 to 6 feet (1 to 2 meters) may be possible where the strongest winds strike the coast.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Prompts Warnings and Watches for Louisiana and Texas

An area of low pressure designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Three moved into the Gulf of Mexico on Monday and the National Hurricane Center issued Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches for Louisiana and Texas.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Three was located at latitude 24.4°N and longitude 89.5°W which put it about 380 miles (610 km) south-southeast of Morgan City, Louisiana.  It was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River.  A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from High Island, Texas to Intracoastal City, Louisiana.

The circulation of Potential Tropical Cyclone 03 is not very well organized.  The system does have a well defined low level center of circulation.  However, there are no thunderstorms near the low level center.  All of the strong showers and thunderstorms are occurring in bands well to the east of the center of circulation.  Some of those bands do contain winds to tropical storm force.  An upper level low over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing strong southwesterly winds which are blowing over the top of the low level center.  The strong vertical wind shear created by those winds is preventing the development of storms closer to the low level center.

The environment around Potential Tropical Cyclone 03 will remain unfavorable for intensification on Tuesday.  The system will move move water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  So, there will be enough energy to support intensification.  However, the upper level low will continue to produce strong vertical wind shear over the low level center of circulation.  The upper low is forecast to move slowly toward the northwest.  It is possible that the strength of the upper level winds over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico could diminish in a day or two.  If the shear decreases, thunderstorms could form closer to the center and if the structure of the system takes on a more tropical appearance, it could be designated Tropical Storm Cindy.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 03 is moving around the western end of the subtropical high over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high is steering the system toward the north-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue.  On its anticipated track Potential Tropical Cyclone 03 is expected to approach the coast of Louisiana in about 48 hours.  The steering winds could weaken when the system gets closer to the coast and the uncertainty about the future track increases after about 48 hours.

Strong southerly flow on the eastern side of Potential Tropical Cyclone 03 will bring very humid air over the southeastern U.S.  The biggest risk is likely to be heavy rain and the potential for floods.  The system will also bring gusty winds and some storm surge to parts of the coast.

Tropical Storm Colin Near Landfall in Florida

Tropical Storm Colin accelerated toward the northeast on Monday afternoon and the center of circulation is about to make landfall near Steinhatchee, Florida.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Colin was located at latitude 29.8°N and longitude 83.8°W which put it about 65 miles (105 km) northwest of Cedar Key, Florida.  Colin was moving toward the northeast at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Englewood, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the East Coast from Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Oregon Inlet, North Carolina.

Although Tropical Storm Colin looked ragged on satellite and radar imagery, the pressure did drop to 1001 mb on Monday.  Colin is a very asymmetric tropical storm.  Almost all of the rain and stronger winds are in the eastern half of the circulation.  Most of the heavier rain is falling in bands southeast and northeast of the center.  An upper level trough over Mexico is producing strong southwesterly winds which are blowing over the western half of Colin.  Despite significant vertical wind shear, the center of circulation became more well defined on Monday.  There are few thunderstorms near the center and Colin is clearly a sheared tropical cyclone.

Tropical Storm Colin did produce minor storm surges along the west coast of Florida where the winds pushed the water toward the coast.  Local coastal flooding occurred, especially in the most surge prone areas.  In addition Tropical Storm Colin produced heavy rainfall over the peninsula of Florida.

Normally, a tropical storm weakens when it moves over land because there is more friction and it is removed from its energy source.  However, Tropical Storm Colin could move into a region where there is more upper level divergence.  If the upper level divergence pumps out more mass, the surface pressure could fall and the wind speeds could increase a little bit.  In addition, if Colin moves toward the northeast more quickly then the effect of vertical wind shear will be less.  The wind speed in Tropical Storm Colin is forecast to increase a little on Tuesday, even though it could start to lose its tropical characteristics.

The upper level trough should continue to steer Tropical Storm Colin toward the northeast on Tuesday.  It is expected to move rapidly across northeast Florida and the center of Colin could emerge over the Atlantic Ocean by Tuesday morning.  The center of Colin is expected to move close to the coast of the Carolinas and it could be east of Cape Hatteras by Tuesday night.

On its anticipated track, the strongest winds should occur over the Atlantic Ocean.  Tropical Storm Colin could contribute to locally heavy rainfall in northeast Florida, extreme southeast Georgia and coastal portions of South Carolina and North Carolina.  Wave action could cause some beach erosion.  Wind damage should be minimal, although some power outages could occur.