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Major Hurricane Dorian Moves Toward the Carolinas

Major Hurricane Dorian moved toward the Carolinas on Wednesday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Dorian was located at latitude 31.3°N and longitude 79.6°W which put it about 105 miles (170 km) south of Charleston, South Carolina.  Dorian was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Savannah River, Georgia to the North Carolina/Virginia border including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.  A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the mouth of the St. Mary’s River, Florida to Savannah River, Georgia.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from the mouth of the St. Mary’s River to Savannah River, Georgia and from the North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague, Virginia.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for Chesapeak Bay south of Smith Point.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the portion of the coast from Chincoteague, Virginia to Fenwick Island, Delaware, for Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Drum Point and for the Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island.

Hurricane Dorian strengthened back into a major hurricane on Wednesday night as it moved over the warm water in the Gulf Stream.  A large eye with a diameter of 45 miles (75 km) became more circular and symmetrical.  The ring of thunderstorms surrounding the eye became continuous and a little thicker.  The strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms revolving around the core of Hurricane Dorian also got stronger.  Storms around the core of Dorian generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the hurricane and the surface pressure decreased.

The circulation around Hurricane Dorian increased in size on Wednesday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 200 miles (320 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Dorian was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 22.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 43.2.  Hurricane Dorian was capable of causing widespread major damage.

Hurricane Dorian will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Dorian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Dorian could get a little stronger during the night.  An upper level trough over the central U.S. will move toward Hurricane Dorian on Thursday.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the hurricane.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase, which will cause Dorian to start to weaken.

Hurricane Dorian will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The ridge will steer Dorian toward the north on Wednesday night.  The upper level trough will turn Hurricane Dorian toward the northeast on Thursday.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Dorian could approach the coast of South Carolina on Thursday morning.  Dorian will move along the coast of North Carolina on Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.

Even if the center of Hurricane Dorian stays just south of the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina, the large circulation means that locations near the coast are likely to get hurricane force winds.  Winds blowing water toward the coast could cause storm surges of 5 to 8 feet (1.5 to 2.5 meters) in some locations.  Dorian could also drop locally heavy rain and cause flash flooding  near the coast.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Fernand made landfall north of La Pesca, Mexico on Wednesday and Tropical Storm Gabrielle developed south of the Azores.  Ar 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Fernand was located at latitude 25.0°N and longitude 99.0°W which put it about 100 miles (160 km) west-northwest of La Pesca, Mexico.  Dorian was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was located at latitude 21.5°N and longitude 34.4°W which put it about 1220 miles (1965 km) south-southwest of the Azores.  Gabrielle was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 m/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Hurricane Dorian Moves Parallel to Florida Coast

Hurricane Dorian moved parallel to the east coast of Florida on Tuesday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Dorian was at latitude 28.4°N and longitude 79.0°W which put it about 95 miles (155 km/h) east of Cape Canaveral, Florida.  Dorian was moving toward the north-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (9 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Sebastian Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida and from Savannah River, Georgia to Surf City, North Carolina.  Hurricane Watches were in effect for the portion of the coast from Ponte Vedra Beach to Savannah River, Georgia and from Surf City, North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portion of the coast from Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet, Florida and from Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida to Savannah, River, Georgia.  Tropical Storm Watches were also in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos and Grand Bahama Island.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the portion of the coast from the North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague, Virginia and for Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point.

Although Hurricane Dorian was moving again, it exhibited the structure of a hurricane that had been stationary for a day and had undergone an eyewall replacement cycle.  There was a large ragged eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Multiple bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the large core of Hurricane Dorian.  Storm near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.

An eyewall replacement cycle caused the size of the circulation around Hurricane Dorian to increase.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  Wind to tropical storm force extended out about 175 miles (285 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Dorian was 19.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 19.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 39.1.

Hurricane Dorian will move through an environment favorable for intensification on Wednesday.  Dorian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, the large size of Hurricane Dorian will limit potential intensification.  Hurricane Dorian could intensify a little on Wednesday.  An upper level trough over the U.S. will approach Dorian on Wednesday night.  The trough will produce southwesterly winds which will cause more vertical wind shear on Thursday.

Hurricane Dorian will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday.  The high will steer Dorian toward the north-northwest.  The upper level trough will turn Dorian toward the northeast on Wednesday night.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Dorian will move nearly parallel to the east coast of Florida on Wednesday.  Dorian could approach the coast of South Carolina by Wednesday night.

Elsewhere Tropical Storm Fernand was over the western Gulf of Mexico and Tropical Depression was west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was located at latitude 23.2°N and longitude 96.4°W which put it about 100 miles (155 km) east-southeast of La Pesca, Mexico.  Fernand was moving toward the west at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Altimira, Mexico to the Mouth of the Rio Grande, River.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located at latitude 19.1°N and longitude 32.8°W which put it about 615 miles (995 km) west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  It was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Fernand Forms Over W. Gulf of Mexico, Dorian Edges Away From Bahamas

Tropical Storm Fernand formed over the western Gulf of Mexico and powerful Hurricane Dorian edged slowly away from the Northwestern Bahamas on Tuesday afternoon.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was located at latitude 23.5°N and longitude 95.3°W which put it about 160 miles (260 km) east of La Pesca, Mexico.  Fernand was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Warning that was in effect for the portion of the coast from Barra del Tordo to the mouth of the Rio Grande River.

The circulation around an area of low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico exhibited greater organization on Tuesday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Fernand.  The circulation around Fernand consisted of a broad area of lower pressure.  One rainband wrapped around the northern periphery of the circulation and a second rainband wrapped around the western periphery of the circulation.  Bands in other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and low clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 105 miles (170 km) from the center of the circulation on the western side of Fernand.

Tropical Storm Fernand will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fernand will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Fernand is likely to strengthen during the next 24 hours.  However, the broad circulation will limit how fast the tropical storm can intensify.

Tropical Storm Fernand will move south of an ridge of high pressure over the southern U.S.  The ridge will Fernand toward the west-northwest during the next day or two.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Fernand is expected to make landfall on the coast of Mexico between La Pesca and Mezquital on Wednesday.  Fernand will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain.  The rain could cause flash floods where Tropical Storm Fernand moves inland over northeastern Mexico.  Fernand could also cause a storm surge of 6 feet (2 meters) along the coast.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, powerful Hurricane Dorian began to edge slowly away from the Northwestern Bahamas.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Dorian was located at latitude 27.5°N and longitude 78.7°W which put it about 105 miles (170 km) east of Ft. Pierce, Florida.  Dorian was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida and from Edisto Beach to South Santee River, South Carolina.  Hurricane Watches were in effect for the portions of the coast from Ponte Vedra Beach to Edisto Beach and from South Santee River to Duck, North Carolina including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet, Florida and from Ponte Vedra Beach to Edisto Beach.  The Hurricane Warnings for the Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos and Grand Bahama Island had been changed to Tropical Storm Warnings, since Dorian was moving away from those locations.

Hurricane Dorian finally started to move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean on Tuesday.  An upper level trough over the U.S. will turn Dorian toward the northeast on Wednesday.  On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Dorian will stay offshore and move parallel to east coast of Florida.  A small deviation to the west could bring the core of Dorian close to the coast.  The center of Hurricane Dorian could move very close to the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina on Thursday.  The circulation around Hurricane Dorian increased in size on Tuesday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 170 miles (275 km) from the center.

Tropical Storm Florence Still Dropping Heavy Rain on the Carolinas

Tropical Storm Florence was still dropping heavy rain on parts of the Carolinas on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located at latitude 33.6°N and longitude 79.9°W which put it about 45 miles (75 km) south-southwest of Florence, South Carolina.  Tropical Storm Florence was moving toward the west at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from South Santee River, South Carolina to Surf City, North Carolina.

Although the inner core of Tropical Storm Florence continues to spin down slowly, the circulation covers much of North Carolina, South Carolina, and eastern Georgia.  The center and much of the circulation around Florence is over land, but strong inflow east of the center continues to transport moist air over North Carolina.  The strongest winds are occurring over the Atlantic Ocean in two rainbands east of the center.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 150 miles (240 km) east of the center of circulation over the Atlantic Ocean.  The winds over North Carolina and South Carolina are generally blowing at less than tropical storm force.  Thunderstorms in some rainbands could produce gusts to tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Florence has moved very slowly toward the west during the past 24 hours.  The extremely slow motion has allowed bands of showers and thunderstorms to persist over locations and rainfall totals have exceed a foot (0.3 meters) in some places.  Parts of the Cape Fear River and Trent River have already reached major flood levels.  Portions of the Neuse River are at moderate flood levels.  Sections of Interstates 95 and 40 are closed because of high water.

The high pressure system that has been blocking a northward movement of Tropical Storm Florence will start to shift to the east on Sunday.  The eastward movement of the high will allow Tropical Storm Florence to move a little faster and turn toward the northwest.  Florence could be over western North Carolina on Sunday evening.  Wind blowing up the eastern slopes of the will enhance rainfall.  Tropical Storm Florence will continue to drop heavy rain over North Carolina and South Carolina on Sunday.  The heavy rain could cause rivers and streams to go higher.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Helene neared the Azores, Tropical Storm Isaac weakened to a tropical wave over the Caribbean Sea and Tropical Storm Joyce was pulled northeast in the wake of Helene.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located at latitude 40.2°N and longitude 32.1°W which put it about 75 miles (120 km) northwest of Flores, Azores.  Helene was moving toward the northeast at 24 m.p.h. (39 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for all of the Azores.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was located at latitude 33.1°N and longitude 39.6°W which put it about 785 miles (1260 km) west-southwest of the Azores.  Joyce was moving toward the east-northeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Florence Strengthens Into a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Florence strengthened rapidly into a major hurricane on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Florence was located at latitude 22.0°N and longitude 45.7°W which put it about 1370 miles (2205 km) east-southeast of Bermuda.  Florence was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 957 mb.

Hurricane Florence strengthened rapidly on Wednesday morning.  A small circular eye formed at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Florence.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation of Hurricane Florence is small.  Winds to hurricane force extend out about 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 95 miles (155 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Florence is 23.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 7.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 30.6.

Hurricane Florence will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong hurricane.  Florence is currently over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C and it will move over warmer water during the next several days.  An upper level trough north of Florence is producing westerly winds which are blowing toward the top of the hurricane.  However, those winds do not seem to be creating significant vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Florence could maintain its intensity and there is a chance it could get stronger when it moves over warmer water.  Because of the small circulation, if there are changes in the environment around Hurricane Florence, then the intensity could change quickly.  Also, any eyewall replacement cycles could cause the intensity to fluctuate.

Hurricane Florence will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Florence in a general northwesterly direction during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Norman could be southeast of Bermuda by early next week.  The guidance from the numerical models has been variable and there is still much uncertainty about the track Hurricane Florence will take later next week.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Gordon was dropping rain on Alabama and Mississippi.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Gordon was located at latitude 32.3°N and longitude 90.2°W which put it about 5 miles (10 km) west of Jackson, Mississippi.  Gordon was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Tropical Storm Gordon Makes Landfall on the Gulf Coast.

Tropical Storm Gordon made landfall on the Gulf Coast near Pascagoula, Mississippi on Tuesday night.  At 11:30 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was located at latitude 30.4°N and longitude 88.4°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) east of Biloxi, Mississippi.  Gordon was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida border.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Okaloosa-Walton County line to the Alabama-Florida border.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Gordon was asymmetrical.  The strongest bands of showers and thunderstorms were north and east of the center of circulation.  The strongest winds were occurring in those bands.  A C-MAN station on Dauphin Island, Alabama reported a sustained wind speed of 62 m.p.h. (100 km/h) and a wind gust of 72 m.p.h. (117 km/h).  The winds were much weaker south and west of the center of Tropical Storm Gordon and there was little rain in those parts of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Gordon will start to weaken as the center moves inland.  Gordon will continue to move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Tropical Storm Gordon toward the northwest during the next day or two.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Gordon will move across southern Mississippi on Wednesday and over Arkansas on Thursday.  The wind will be strong enough to cause minor damage and it will cause some power outages.  Locally heavy rain and the potential for flash floods are the greater risks.  Flash Flood Warnings were in effect for parts of West Florida and Southwest Alabama.  Flash Flood Watches were in effect for Mississippi and Southeastern Arkansas.

Elsewhere over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Florence was continuing to intensify east of the northern Leeward Islands.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Florence was located at latitude 20.7°N and longitude 43.9°W which put it about 1515 miles (2440 km) east-southeast of Bermuda.  Florence was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Tropical Storm Gordon Nears Gulf Coast

Tropical Storm Gordon moved closer to the Gulf Coast of the U.S. on Tuesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was located at latitude 28.5°N and longitude 86.8°W which put it about 145 miles (235 km) east-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.  Gordon was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida border.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River including Lake Pontchartrain and from the Alabama-Florida border to the Okaloosa-Walton County line in Florida.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Gordon appeared to be getting more organized on Tuesday morning.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation.  Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the east of the tropical storm.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms north and east of the center were moving toward the Gulf Coast.  The bands southwest of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation, but the winds were weaker in the southwestern quadrant of Tropical Storm Gordon.

Tropical Storm Gordon could strengthen into a hurricane before it makes landfall.  Gordon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level trough over the southeastern U.S. was producing southwesterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds were causing some vertical shear, but they will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  The surface pressure decreased slightly on Tuesday morning.  Increased friction near the coast could cause the circulation to tighten around the center, when Tropical Storm Gordon gets closer to the Gulf Coast.

Tropical Storm Gordon will move around the southwestern end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Gordon in a general northwesterly direction during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Gordon is likely to make landfall on the northern Gulf Coast on Tuesday night.  Gordon will produce winds to near hurricane force at the coast.  It could cause a storm surge of 5 to 8 feet (1.5 to 2.5 meters) east of the center where the wind blows water toward the coast.  The highest storm surge will occur in bays and the mouths of streams and rivers where the shape of the coast funnels water into those areas.  Tropical Storm Gordon will also drop heavy rain over portions of northwest Florida, southwest Alabama, Mississippi and eastern Louisiana.  Locally heavy rain could create the potential for flash floods.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, former Tropical Storm Florence strengthened into the third Atlantic hurricane of 2018.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Florence was located at latitude 19.7°N and longitude 42.5°W which put it about 1270 miles (2045 km) east-northeast of the Lesser Antilles.  Florence was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Storm Gordon Forms, Causes Warnings for South Florida

Former Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven developed a distinct center of circulation on Sunday morning and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Gordon.  At 8:30 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was located at latitude 25.1°N and longitude 80.6°W which put it about 10 miles (15 km) west of Key Largo, Florida.  Gordon was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key to Ocean Reef including Florida bay.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Alabama-Florida border to Morgan City, Louisiana including Lake Pontchartrain.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Gordon became much better organized during the past 12 hours.  A distinct low level center of circulation formed and many more thunderstorms developed.  A C-MAN station on Fowey Rock, Florida reported sustained winds of 49 m.p.h. (80 km/h) supporting the designation as a tropical storm.  The circulation of Tropical Storm Gordon was still organizing.  More thunderstorms were developing in bands northeast of the center of circulation than in other parts of the tropical storm.  Those storms were beginning to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the core of Gordon.

Tropical Storm Gordon will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours.  Gordon will be moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will be moving through a region where the upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Gordon will continue to intensify and it could intensify more rapidly once the inner core becomes better organized.  There is a chance that Gordon could strengthen into a hurricane before it reaches the north coast of the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Gordon will move around the west end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The ridge will steer Gordon in  a general west-northwesterly direction.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Gordon will move away from South Florida later today.  Gordon could approach the north coast of the Gulf of Mexico late on Tuesday.  Locally heavy rain could cause floods in South Florida.  Tropical Storm Gordon could produce a storm surge of 6 to 9 feet (2 to 3 meters) along parts of the northern Gulf Coast.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Causes Tropical Storm Watch for U.S. Gulf Coast

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven caused the National Hurricane Center to issue a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the U.S. Gulf Coast on Sunday afternoon.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Alabama-Florida border to Morgan City, Louisiana including Lake Pontchartrain.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven was located at latitude 22.7°N and longitude 77.3°W which put it about 275 miles (445 km) east-southeast of Marathon, Florida.  It was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1012 mb.

Bands of showers and thunderstorms began to form in a tropical wave over the Bahamas and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven in order to be able to issue the Tropical Storm Watch for the north coast of the Gulf of Mexico.  The circulation of Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven was still organizing.  A distinct low level center of circulation had not formed.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing and the bands were starting to revolve around the inner part of the weather system.  Thunderstorms were beginning to generate some upper level divergence.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven will be moving into an environment favorable for intensification.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge is forecast to develop over Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven.  If that occurs, then the upper level winds would be weak and there would be little vertical wind shear.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven is forecast to intensify into Tropical Storm Gordon.  If the system moves slowly enough, there is a chance it could strengthen into a hurricane before it reaches the Gulf Coast.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven in a general west-northwesterly direction.  On its anticipated track the system will move over the Florida Keys on Monday.  It will be over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and the system could reach the northern Gulf Coast late on Tuesday or early on Wednesday.

Elsewhere over the tropical Atlantic, Tropical Storm Florence was moving quickly away from the Cabo Verde Islands.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 34.6°W which put it about 700 miles (1125 km) west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Florence was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Hurricane Franklin Brings Wind and Heavy Rain to Mexico

Hurricane Franklin brought gusty winds and heavy rain to parts of Mexico when it made landfall on Wednesday night.  The center of Hurricane Franklin made landfall between Veracruz and Nautla near the town of Lechuguillas, Mexico.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (140 km) at the time of landfall, which made Franklin a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  Franklin weakened to a tropical storm as it moved inland during the night.

At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was located at latitude 19.8°N and longitude 98.3°W which put it about 60 miles (95 km) east-northeast of the Mexico City, Mexico.  Franklin was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Rojo to Boca Partido, Mexico.

Franklin brought hurricane force winds to the portion of the coast north of Veracruz, Mexico.  Those winds pushed water toward the shore and created a storm surge along the coast.  The highest surge may have reached 6 to 9 feet (2 to 3 meters) near and just to the north of where the center made landfall.  Winds blowing up the slopes of mountains produced very heavy rain and flooding could be occurring in some locations.  The heavy rain will continue as Tropical Storm Franklin moves west across central Mexico.

Tropical Storm Franklin will continue to weaken as it moves across Mexico.  Heavy rain will continue to fall over portions of central Mexico and the potential for additional flooding exists.  The mountains are likely to disrupt the low level circulation.  However, the middle and upper portions of the circulation could remain intact.  Some models are forecasting that Franklin, or its remnants, could redevelop when it reaches the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.