Tag Archives: AL12

Hurricane Larry Strengthens to Cat. 2

Hurricane Larry strengthened to Category 2 over the Atlantic Ocean on Friday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Larry was located at latitude 15.0°N and longitude 42.0°W which put it about 1320 miles (2125 km) east of the Leeward Islands. Larry was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Hurricane Larry intensified to Category 2 on Friday afternoon. A small circular eye was present at the center of Larry. The eye was surround be a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Larry. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Larry. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Larry will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Larry will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Larry will intensify during the next 36 hours. Larry is likely to strengthen to a major hurricane during the weekend.

Hurricane Larry will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next 36 hours. The high will steer Larry toward the west-northwest during that time period. On it anticipated track Hurricane Larry will move in the general direction of Bermuda.

Larry Strengthens to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Larry strengthened to a hurricane over the eastern Atlantic Ocean early on Thursday. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Larry was located at latitude 13.0°N and longitude 32.3°W which put it about 545 miles (875 km) west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Larry was moving toward the west at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Larry intensified quickly during the past 24 hours and it reached hurricane intensity early on Thursday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Hurricane Larry and an eye appeared intermittently on visible and microwave satellite images. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Larry. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Larry. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Larry will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days. Larry will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27.5˚C. It will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Larry’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The winds in the lower levels will also blow from the east and so there will not be a lot of vertical wind shear. Hurricane Larry will strengthen during the next 48 hours and it could intensify to a major hurricane. Hurricane could undergo a period of rapid intensification once an inner core with an eye and an eyewall are fully formed.

Hurricane Larry will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high will steer Larry toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Hurricane Larry will move farther away from the Cabo Verde islands. Larry could be east of the northern Leeward Islands by the weekend.

Elsewhere, the remnants of former Hurricane Ida interacted with a slow moving cold front to cause widespread urban and flash floods in the northeastern U.S. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of the remnants of former Hurricane Ida was located at latitude 41.4°N and longitude 71.6°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km) southwest of Providence, Rhode Island. Ida was moving toward the northeast at 28 m.p.h. (43 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb. There were reports of urban and flash floods in central and eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey and southeastern New York including New York City. There were reports of tornadoes in Maryland and New Jersey.

Tropical Storm Larry Forms South of Cabo Verde Islands

Tropical Storm Larry formed south of the Cabo Verde Islands on Wednesday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Larry was located at latitude 12.3°N and longitude 24.8°W which put it about 175 miles (280 km) south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Larry was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Satellite images indicated that former Tropical Depression Twelve had strengthened on Wednesday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Larry. The circulation around Tropical Storm Larry exhibited more organization. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Larry. Even though the circulation was more organized, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands south and west of the center of Tropical Storm Larry. Bands in the northern and eastern parts of Larry consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) on the western side of Larry. The winds on the eastern side of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Larry will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few days. Larry will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27.5˚C. It will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Larry’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The winds in the lower levels will also blow from the east and so there will not be a lot of vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Larry will strengthen during the next few days. Larry could intensify to a hurricane within 36 hours. Tropical Storm Larry could undergo a period of rapid intensification once an inner core with an eye and an eyewall form. Larry could intensify to a major hurricane during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Larry will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high will steer Larry toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Larry will move farther away from the Cabo Verde islands. Larry could be east of the northern Leeward Islands by the weekend.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Ida was dropping locally heavy rain over parts of the U.S. and Tropical Depression Kate was spinning northeast of the Leeward Islands. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Ida was located at latitude 37.3°N and longitude 82.5°W which put it about 75 miles (120 km) west of Bluefield, West Virginia. Ida was moving toward the northeast at 24 m.p.h. (39 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb. Flash Flood Watches were in effect for the region from West Virginia and eastern Ohio to southern New England.

At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Kate was located at latitude 25.7°N and longitude 51.7°W which put it about 895 miles (1440 km) northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Kate was moving toward the north-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Tropical Storm Kyle Forms East of U.S.

Tropical Storm Kyle formed off the East Coast of the U.S. on Friday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Kyle was located at latitude 37.7°N and longitude 71.7°W which put it about 185 miles (300 km) southeast of Atlantic City, New Jersey.  Kyle was moving toward the east-northeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Based on data from satellites and surface observations the National Hurricane Center (NHC) determined that a low pressure system off the East Coast of the U.S. possessed characteristics of a tropical cyclone and winds to tropical storm force.  NHC designated the system as Tropical Storm Kyle on Friday afternoon.  Kyle had a well defined low level center of circulation.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Tropical Storm Kyle.  Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles to the southeast of the center of circulation.  Winds in the other parts of Kyle were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Kyle will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Kyle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  An upper level trough over eastern Canada and the Great Lakes will produces southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of tropical storm Kyle.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and they will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Kyle could strengthen a little more during the next day or so.

The southwesterly winds will steer Tropical Storm Kyle toward the east-northeast during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Kyle is forecast to pass south of Nova Scotia and Labrador.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Josephine was spinning east of the northern Leeward Islands.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Josephine was located at latitude 17.8°N and longitude 56.1°E which put it about 460 miles (740 km) east of the northern Leeward Islands.  Josephine was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Powerful Hurricane Lorenzo Churns Southwest of the Azores

Powerful Hurricane Lorenzo churned southwest of the Azores on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located at latitude 20.3°N and longitude 43.6°W which put it about 1575 miles (2535 km) southwest of the Azores.  Lorenzo was moving toward the north-northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 948 mb.

Hurricane Lorenzo weakened slowly on Friday, but it remained a large and powerful hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 250 miles (400 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Lorenzo was 23.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 20.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 44.3.  Hurricane Lorenzo was capable of causing major damage.

Hurricane Lorenzo weakened on Friday because it moved into a less favorable environment.  Lorenzo continued to move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature was near 27°C.  However, an upper level trough west of Lorenzo was producing southwesterly winds which were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  in addition, Hurricane Lorenzo appeared to be drawing drier air into the western half of the circulation.  The effects of increased vertical wind shear and drier air caused Lorenzo to weaken.

Hurricane Lorenzo will continue to move through a less favorable environment and weaken.  Since Lorenzo is a large hurricane, it will weaken more slowly than a smaller hurricane would.  As a result, Lorenzo will likely remain a hurricane for several more days.

The upper level trough will steer Hurricane Lorenzo toward the northeast during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Lorenzo will likely approach the Azores on Tuesday.  Lorenzo is likely to still be a hurricane at that time.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Depression Karen weakened to a trough southeast of Bermuda on Friday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of former Tropical Depression Karen was located at latitude 29.3°N and longitude 58.5°W which put it about 425 miles (685 km) south-southeast of Bermuda.  Karen was moving toward the northeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind sped was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Lorenzo Rapidly Strengthens Into a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Lorenzo rapidly strengthened into a major hurricane west of the Cabo Verde Islands on Thursday.  At 6:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located at latitude 15.2°N and longitude 39.3°W which put it about 995 miles (1600 km) west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Lorenzo was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

Lorenzo was a large well organized a hurricane.  There was a circular eye at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Lorenzo.  Storms around the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 210 miles (335 km) from the center.

Hurricane Lorenzo will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next day or so.  Lorenzo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Lorenzo is likely to strengthen to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale during the next 24 hours.  Lorenzo will move over cooler water during the weekend, which will cause the hurricane to weaken.

Hurricane Lorenzo will move around the western end of a ridge of high pressure over North Africa and the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  The ridge will steer Lorenzo toward the north during the weekend.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Lorenzo could approach the Azores next week.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean Tropical Storm Karen moved farther away from Puerto Rico.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT in Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located at latitude 25.5°N and longitude 63.5°W which put it about 520 miles (835 km) north-northeast of San Juan Puerto Rico.  Karen was moving toward the north-northeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Storm Karen Drops Heavy Rain on Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands

Tropical Storm Karen dropped heavy rain on parts of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located at latitude 17.5°N and longitude 66.0°W which put it about 65 miles (105 km) south of San Juan Puerto Rico.  Karen was moving toward the north at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Puerto Rico including Vieques and Culebra, the U.S. Virgin Islands and the British Virgin Islands.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Karen exhibited more organization on Tuesday afternoon.  A new low level center of circulation formed a little farther to the west near a cluster of stronger thunderstorms.  The minimum surface pressure decreased by several millibars.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of circulation and in bands revolving around the center.  Storms near the newly reformed center of circulation were generating more upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass was what allowed the surface pressure to decrease.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Karen will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 48 hours.  Karen will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  Karen has moved under the middle of an upper level ridge over the eastern Caribbean Sea where the upper level winds are weaker.  There will be less vertical wind shear during the next day or two.  The environment around Tropical Storm Karen will support intensification.  However, the center of Karen will pass over Puerto Rico during the next 24 hours.  The mountains in Puerto Rico will disrupt the circulation in the lower levels and Tropical Storm Karen will weaken when it passes over those mountains.  Karen will likely strengthen again when it moves north of Puerto Rico.

Tropical Storm Karen will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Karen toward the north during the next day or two.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Karen will move across Puerto Rico during the next 24 hours.  Karen will drop heavy rain on parts of Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and the British Virgin Islands.  Prolonged heavy rain will create a high risk for flash floods in those areas.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Jerry was moving slowly toward Bermuda and Tropical Storm Lorenzo was strengthening west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located at latitude 30.9°N and longitude 69.1°W which put it about 270 miles (435 km) west-southwest of Bermuda.  Jerry was moving toward the north-northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was located at latitude 12.4°N and longitude 29.3°W which put it about 270 miles (435 km) west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Lorenzo was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb

Tropical Storm Karen Develops Near Windward Islands

Tropical Storm Karen developed near the Windward Islands on Sunday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located at latitude 11.9°N and longitude 60.9°W which put it about 55 miles (90 km) east-southeast of Grenada.  Karen was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Trinidad and Tobago, Grenada, and for St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

A center of circulation developed in an area of thunderstorms east of the axis of a strong tropical wave near the Windward Islands on Sunday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Karen.  The strongest thunderstorms were forming in bands south and west of the center of circulation.  Bands north and west of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.   Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 125 miles (200 km) on the eastern side of the tropical storm.

An upper level trough northeast of the Lesser Antilles was producing strong westerly winds which were blowing across the northern side of Tropical Storm Karen.  An upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea was producing strong northeasterly winds which were blowing across the western part of Karen.  The upper level winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear which was inhibiting the development of thunderstorms in those parts of Tropical Storm Karen.  The center of circulation developed in a region between the stronger upper level westerly and northeasterly winds.  Most of the thunderstorms were forming in that area where the upper level winds were not as strong.

Tropical Storm Karen will move through an environment that will be only marginally favorable for intensification during the next day or two.  Karen will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature  is near 29°C.  However, the upper level trough and upper level ridge will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  If Tropical Storm Karen remains in the zone where the upper level winds are not as strong, it could strengthen.  However, if Karen moves under stronger upper level winds, it could weaken to a depression.  Tropical Storm Karen is forecast to move closer to the center of the upper level ridge in two or three days.  If that happens, then the upper level winds will be weaker and Karen could intensify.

Tropical Storm Karen will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Karen toward the west-northwest during the next 12 hours.  Karen will move more toward the north when reaches the end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Karen will move across the Windward Islands on Sunday.  Karen will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain.  Flash floods are likely.  Tropical Storm Karen could approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday.  Tropical Storm Watches are likely to be issued for those islands.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean Tropical Storm Jerry was spinning south of Bermuda.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located at latitude 25.0°N and longitude 66.9°W which put it about 520 miles (835 km) south-southwest of Bermuda.  Jerry was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Kirk Brings Rain to Lesser Antilles

Tropical Storm Kirk brought rain to some of the Lesser Antilles on Friday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 63.6°W which put it about 360 miles (575 km) south-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico.  Kirk was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.  All Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches have been discontinued.

An upper level trough over the Caribbean Sea is producing strong westerly winds which is blowing over the top of Tropical Storm Kirk.  Those winds are causing strong vertical wind shear, which is causing the strongest thunderstorms to occur on the far eastern side of the circulation.  Bands west of the center of circulation and near the center consist primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The center of circulation is over the eastern Caribbean Sea and the heavy rain is falling hours after the center passed the Lesser Antilles.  Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Kirk will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the weekend.  Kirk will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  However, the upper level trough will continue cause strong vertical wind shear for the next several days.  Tropical Storm Kirk will likely weaken to a tropical depression or a tropical wave during the next 24 to 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Kirk will move south of a subtropical high pressure system that is over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Kirk in a general west-northwesterly direction during the weekend.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Kirk should stay south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.  Kirk or its remnants could be near Jamaica in a few days.

Tropical Storm Kirk Redevelops East of Lesser Antilles, Warnings Issued

Tropical Storm Kirk redeveloped east of the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday morning and Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches were issued for some of those islands.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located at latitude 12.1°N and longitude 54.3°W which put it about 360 miles (575 km) east-southeast of Barbados.  Kirk was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for Barbados, St. Lucia, Dominica, Martinique and Guadeloupe.  A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) indicated that former Tropical Storm Kirk had weakened to a tropical wave on Monday and NHC ceased issuing advisories on the system.  The remnants of former Tropical Storm Kirk moved quickly westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean.  More thunderstorms began developing in the system on Tuesday.  NHC determined that sufficient thunderstorms had formed near the center of circulation by Wednesday morning to reclassify the system as a tropical cyclone and it started issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Kirk again.

A cluster of strong thunderstorms developed near the center of Tropical Storm Kirk.  Thunderstorms were also forming in several bands which were revolving around the center of circulation.  Thunderstorms near the core of Kirk were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the east of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Kirk will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Kirk will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are not too strong.  There will be some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification in the short term.  When Tropical Storm Kirk moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea, it will encounter stronger westerly winds and the vertical wind shear will increase.

Tropical Storm Kirk will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The subtropical high will steer Kirk on a path a little north of due west.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Kirk could be near Barbados on Thursday morning.  Kirk could reach the Lesser Antilles later on Thursday.  Tropical Storm Kirk will bring gusty winds and it could drop locally heavy rain.