Tag Archives: AL19

Tropical Storm Paulette Causes Hurricane Warning for Bermuda

A likely intensification of Tropical Storm Paulette caused a Hurricane Warning to be issued for Bermuda on Saturday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located at latitude 27.5°N and longitude 57.2°W which put it about 565 miles (905 km) southeast of Bermuda.  Paulette was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Paulette was on the verge of strengthening into a hurricane on Saturday morning.  Microwave satellite imagery indicated that a small circular eye was forming at the center of Paulette.  A ring of strong thunderstorms was developing around the eye.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Storm Paulette.  The stronger thunderstorms were in bands in the northern half of the circulation.  Bands in the southern half of Paulette consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.   Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) on the northern side of Tropical Storm Paulette.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) on the southern side of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Paulette will move through an environment favorable for intensification.  Paulette will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move into an area that is northeast of an upper low north of Puerto Rico and west of an upper level ridge that is over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  The upper low will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Paulette.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and the shear will slow the rate of intensification.  In spite of the wind shear Paulette is likely to strengthen into a hurricane during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Paulette will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic.  The high will steer Paulette toward the northwest during the next 36 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Paulette will approach Bermuda on Sunday night.  Paulette will almost certainly be a hurricane when it approaches Bermuda.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Nineteen was strengthening near Southwest Florida and Rene weakened to a tropical depression west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen was located at latitude 25.6°N and longitude 81.5°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km) south-southeast of Naples, Florida.  The depression was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coasst from Ochlockonee River to the Okaloosa/Walton  County Line in Florida.

Tropical Depression Nineteen was dropping heavy rain over the Florida Keys on Saturday morning.  The depression is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane as it moves over the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next 48 hours.  A Hurricane Watch is likely to be issued for the Northern Gulf Coast later today.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Rene was located at latitude 23.2°N and longitude 44.4°W which put it about 1415 miles (2275 km) west-northwest of teh Cabo Verde Islands.  Rene was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  Th maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Depression Nineteen Forms, Watch Issued for South Florida

Tropical Depression Nineteen formed between the Bahamas and Florida on Friday afternoon and a Tropical Storm Watch was issued for a portion of South Florida.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen was located at latitude 25.4°N and longitude 79.0°W which put it about 80 miles (130 km) east-southeast of Miami, Florida.  The depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Jupiter Inlet to Ocean Reef, Florida.

The circulation around an area of low pressure over the Bahamas organized quickly on Friday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Nineteen.  Thunderstorms developed near the center of the depression.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms formed and started to revolve around the center of circulation.  Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the depression.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.  A ship northwest of Andros Island reported winds to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h).

Tropical Depression Nineteen will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  For most of the time the depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move underneath the middle of an upper level ridge where the winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The center of the depression could spend about 12 hours over South Florida on Saturday which would inhibit intensification.  The depression will intensify over the Gulf of Mexico and it could strengthen into a hurricane.

Tropical Depression Nineteen will move south of a high pressure system over the southeastern U.S.  The high will steer the depression toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Nineteen will reach southeastern Florida during Friday night.  It could approach the northern Gulf Coast on Monday.  Tropical Depression Nineteen will bring locally heavy rain and gusty winds to South Florida during the next 24 hours.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Paulette turned toward Bermuda and Tropical Storm Rene weakened west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located at latitude 24.6°N and longitude 53.7°W which put it about 855 miles (1745 km) southeast of Bermuda.  Paulette was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.  Tropical Storm Paulette is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane and it could be a major hurricane when it passes near Bermuda on Monday.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Rene was located at latitude 20.7°N and longitude 41.1°W which put it about 1165 miles (1875 km) west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Rene was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Subtropical Storm Rebekah Forms West of the Azores

Subtropical Storm Rebekah formed west of the Azores on Wednesday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDY on Wednesday the center of Subtropical Storm Rebekah was located at latitude 38.3°N and longitude 40.7°W which put it about 745 miles (1195 km) west of the Azores.  Rebekah was moving toward the east at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Subtropical Storm Rebekah formed in a manner very similar to the way Hurricane Pablo developed last week.  A small center of circulation developed in the middle of a much larger, extratropical cyclone.  Thunderstorms developed around the center of the small low pressure system.  Even though the small low was over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 22°C, cold air in the upper troposphere generated enough instability to allow the thunderstorms to grow upward.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms developed and began to revolve around the small low pressure system, and the National Hurricane Center designated the system at Subtropical Storm Rebekah.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Rebekah.

Subtropical Storm Rebekah could strengthen during the next 24 hours.  Although Rebekah will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 22°C, colder air in the middle and upper troposphere will keep enough potential instability in the atmosphere to allow for the continued development of thunderstorms.  Since Rebekah is at the center of the larger low pressure system, the vertical wind shear will be less.  Subtropical storm Rebekah may intensify during the next day or so and it could make a transition to a tropical storm.

Subtropical Storm Rebekah will move eastward along with the larger low pressure system that surrounds the much smaller subtropical storm.  Southerly winds blowing around the eastern side of the larger low could push Rebekah toward the north at times.  On its anticipated track Subtropical Storm Rebekah could approach the western Azores on Friday.

Tropical Depression 19 Strengthens to Tropical Storm Rina

Tropical Depression Nineteen strengthened into Tropical Storm Rina on Monday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Rina was located at latitude 30.4°N and longitude 49.9°W which put it about 890 miles (1430 km) east of Bermuda.  Rina was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

Although an upper level low northwest of Tropical Depression Nineteen continued to produce westerly winds which caused moderate vertical wind shear, stronger thunderstorms developed east of the center of circulation.  Downdrafts in those storms were able to transport stronger winds to the surface and winds to tropical storm force were occurring at the surface.  The National Hurricane Center upgraded Tropical Depression Nineteen to Tropical Storm Rina on Monday night.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Rina is asymmetrical.  The stronger storms are occurring east of the center of circulation.  The winds to tropical storm force are occurring northeast of the center.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 60 miles to the northeast of the center of circulation.  The bands west of the center consist primarily of lower clouds and showers.  The upper level westerly winds are tilting the circulation toward the east with height.

The moderate vertical wind shear will continue to inhibit the intensification of Tropical Storm Rina.  Rina will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 25°C.  Although the water is cooler than it is in the tropical, colder air in the upper levels will make the atmosphere unstable enough to allow thunderstorms to continue to develop.  The vertical wind shear could decrease during the next 24 to 36 hours and some intensification is possible.  When Tropical Storm Rina moves farther north, it will move over colder water.

The upper level low to the northwest of Tropical Storm Rina and a ridge to the east of Rina are steering the tropical storm toward the north.  A general motion is expected to continue for another day or two.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Rina will pass between Labrador and the Azores.

Tropical Depression Nineteen Forms East of Bermuda

Tropical Depression Nineteen formed east of Bermuda on Monday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen was located at latitude 29.5°N and longitude 50.4°W which put it about 875 miles east of Bermuda.  It was moving toward the north-northeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1013 mb.

A small low pressure system has been meandering over the Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Azores.  More showers and thunderstorms formed near the center of the the low and the circulation became more circular.  Because the low pressure system developed the characteristics of a tropical cyclone, the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Nineteen on Monday morning.

The circulation of Tropical Depression Nineteen is being affected by vertical wind shear.  An upper level low located to the northwest of the system is producing easterly winds which are blowing across the top of the depression.  Those winds are producing moderate vertical wind shear shear which is tilting the upper portion of the circulation to the east.  The surface center of circulation was exposed on visible satellite images.  Most of the showers and thunderstorms were occurring to the east of the center.

Tropical Depression Nineteen is forecast to intensify into a tropical storm.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 25.5°C, which is marginally warm enough to support intensification.  The upper level low will continue to produce vertical wind shear which will inhibit intensification during the next 12 to 24 hours.  The shear is forecast to decrease on Tuesday and Tropical Depression Nineteen could strengthen into a tropical storm before it moves over colder water.

Tropical Depression Nineteen is currently in an area where the steering currents are weak.  The circulation around the upper level low to the northwest of the Tropical Depression is being deflected around an upper level ridge to the east of the depression.  Some of the flow is turning northward and the rest of the flow is turning toward the south.  The orientation of the upper low and ridge is forecast to change and the two systems are forecast to steer the depression toward the northeast later this week.  However, if the wind shear stays strong enough to prevent the circulation of the depression from growing vertically, then the winds in the lower level could steer the depression more toward the west.