Tag Archives: Ambae

Tropical Storm Lola Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Lola rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Pacific Ocean northeast of Vanuatu on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Lola was located at latitude 13.7°S and longitude 169.6°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) east of Sola, Vanuatu. Lola was moving toward the south-southeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 948 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Lola rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Monday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) was at the center of Lola’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Lola. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that large quantities of pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Lola. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Lola was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensiy Size Index (HWISI) was 35.7. Tropical Cyclone Lola was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.

Tropical Cyclone Lola will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Lola will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Lola could continue to intensify during the next 12 hours. An upper level trough over the Coral Sea will approach Lola from the west later today. The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Lola’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Tropical Cyclone Lola could start to weaken when the wind shear increases.

Tropical Cyclone Lola will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system centered northeast of New Zealand. The high pressure system will steer Lola toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Lola will approach Vanuatu during the next 24hours. Lola will bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Espiritu Santo, Maewo, Ambae, Pentecost, Ambrym and Malekula. Tropical Cyclone Lola will be capable of causing regional major damage. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Lola could cause a storm surge of up to ten feet (three meters) in some places.

Tropical Cyclone Harold Batters Espiritu Santo

Tropical Cyclone Harold battered Espiritu Santo on Sunday.  The eye of Harold moved over the southwestern part of Espiritu Santo.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Harold was located at latitude 15.3°S and longitude 166.4°E which put it about 60 miles west-northwest of Luganville, Vanuatu.  Harold was moving toward the east at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 929 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Harold strengthened on Sunday as it slowly approached northern Vanuatu.  A circular eye with a diameter of 18 miles (29 km) was evident on satellite images.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Harold.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Harold.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of circulation.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Harold was 29.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) 43.2.  Harold was capable of causing significant damage.

Tropical Cyclone Harold will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Harold toward the east-southeast during the next few days.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Harold will move across the southern end of Espiritu Santo.  The center will also pass near the northern end of Malekula, near the southern end of Pentecost and near Ambrym.  Tropical Cyclone Harold will drop heavy rain over Espiritu Santo, Malekula, Pentecost, Ambrym, Epi, Ambae and Maewo.  Harold will move slowly and the heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods.  Strong winds blowing toward the coast could produce significant storm surges on the eastern and northern coasts of some islands.

Tropical Cyclone Harold will move through an environment favorable for a strong tropical cyclone.  Harold will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  Since the core of Tropical Cyclone Harold will pass over the southern end of Espiritu Santo, increased friction will cause the circulation to weaken during the next 12 to 24 hours.