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Tropical Storm Lidia Weakens, Still Raining on Baja California

Tropical Storm Lidia has weakened but it is producing rain over Baja California.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located at latitude 28.3°N and longitude 114.6°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km) northeast of Punta Eugenia, Mexico.  Lidia was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to San Jose de Las Palomas, from Mulege to Isla San Luis and from Guaymas to Puerto Libertad, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Lidia weakened during the past 24 hours as it slowly moved northwest over Baja California.  There are some indications that the upper portion of the circulation may have decoupled from the lower half of Tropical Storm Lidia.  The upper portion of the circulation appears to be over the Gulf of California.  There are stronger thunderstorms over the Gulf of California because the Sea Surface Temperature is near 32°C in that body of water.  Those thunderstorms are producing heavy rain over parts of the eastern side of Baja California and the western part of Mexico adjacent to the Gulf of California.  The lower level center appears to be located northeast of Punta Eugenia over the Pacific Ocean just west of Baja California.  There are showers and thunderstorms near the low level center and they are dropping heavy rain in that area.  The potential for flash floods still exists in the areas where heavy rain is falling.

The low level center of Tropical Storm Lidia is forecast to continue to move toward the northwest.  Lidia will continue to weaken because the low level center is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 23°C.  It will take several more days for the low level center to spin down and it could still produce locally heavy rain over the northern part of Baja California during that time.  The upper level portion of the circulation will likely be absorbed by the larger scale environmental flow in those levels.  Some clouds and moisture in the upper levels could flow over the southwestern U.S.

Tropical Storm Lidia Brings Wind and Heavy Rain to Baja California

Tropical Storm Lidia brought gusty winds and very heavy rain to Baja California on Thursday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located at latitude 23.3°N and longitude 110.4°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km) northwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Lidia was moving toward the north-northwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Cortes to La Paz, Mexico including Cabo San Lucas.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Eugenia to Bahia San Juan Bautista including Cabo San Lucas and from Bahia Tempehuaya to Bahia Kino.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Eugenia to San Juan de Las Palomas and from Bahia San Juan Bautista to Isla San Luis and from Bahia Kino to Puerto Libertad.

Tropical Storm Lidia intensified as it approached the southern tip of Baja California on Thursday.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the center of circulation and a partial eyewall appeared to form.  The airport at Cabo San Lucas reported sustained winds of 58 m.p.h. (83 km/h) and a Mexican automated station reported a sustained wind of 70 m.p.h. (113 km/h) and gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) at a height of 735 feet (244 meters).  Tropical Storm Lidia has a large circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 185 miles (295 km) from the center of circulation.

The large size of Tropical Storm Lidia meant that it was bringing tropical storm winds to the southern part of Baja California and parts of the west coast of Mexico.  Lidia was also producing very heavy rain over Baja California.  Flash floods are likely in places where steep terrain causes water to run off quickly.

Tropical Storm Lidia is forecast to move slowly north-northwest over Baja California.  The slow motion will prolong the period of gusty winds.  It will also cause the rain totals to be higher and increase the risk for floods.  Much of the circulation will remain over water and the large size of Lidia will mean that the tropical storm will weaken slowly.

Tropical Storm Lidia Threatens Baja California

Tropical Storm Lidia became an increased threat to Baja California as it moved closer on Wednesday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located at latitude 20.7°N and longitude 109.2°W which put it about 160 miles (255 km) south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California.  Lidia was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Cortes to La Paz, Mexico including Cabo San Lucas.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Cortes to San Evaristo including Cabo San Lucas and from Tempehuaya to Huatabampito, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from San Evaristo to Loreto, Mexico and from Puerto Cortes to Puerto Andresito.

A distinct center of circulation began consolidating in a large area of low pressure previously designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E on Wednesday.  Numerous bands of showers and thunderstorms started developing around the consolidating center.  There were more showers and thunderstorms in the southern half of the circulation than there were in the northern half of the circulation.  Thunderstorms southwest of the center of circulation were beginning to generate some upper level divergence, but it was not well developed.  Tropical Storm Lidia formed out of a large low pressure system and it still has a large circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 120 miles (195 km) from the center on the eastern side of Lidia.

Tropical Storm Lidia was in an environment that was marginally favorable for intensification on Wednesday.  Lidia was moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature was near 30°C.  An upper level ridge to the east of Lidia was producing westerly winds which were causing moderate vertical wind shear, especially over the northern half of the circulation.  The environment around Tropical Storm Lidia is forecast to become a little more favorable for intensification on Thursday.  The upper level winds are forecast to become weaker, which would reduce the wind shear.  Lidia will still be moving over very warm water and it should intensify on Thursday.  The rate of intensification could increase as the core of the tropical storm becomes more organized.  There is a chance that Lidia could strengthen into a hurricane which is why there is a Hurricane Watch for part of Baja California.

Lidia is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge, which is steering the tropical storm toward the north-northwest.  A general north-northwesterly motion is expected to continue for another day or two.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Lidia could reach the southern tip of Baja California by Thursday evening.  In addition to gusty winds Tropical Storm Lidia will produce very heavy rain.  Heavy rain falling on the steep terrain of Baja California creates the risk of flash floods.

Eugene Becomes a Hurricane Southwest of Baja California

Tropical Storm Eugene strengthened rapidly into a hurricane on Saturday as it moved southwest of Baja California.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Eugene was located at latitude 14.4°N and longitude 113.5°W which put it about 630 miles (1020 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Eugene was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (155 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A primary raindband wrapped around the center of Hurricane Eugene on Saturday and an eye formed at the center of circulation.  The eye had a diameter of 30 miles (50 km).  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Thunderstorms were generating well developed upper level divergence which was pumping mass away in all directions.  The circulation of Hurricane Eugene was symmetrical and well organized.

Hurricane Eugene was moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) was near 29°C.  Eugene was underneath the western end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge was producing southerly winds which were blowing toward the top of the hurricane, but the vertical wind shear was not very strong.  Eugene is likely to intensify on Sunday.  It will gradually move over cooler SSTs and Hurricane Eugene will move over water where the water is cooler than 26°C on Monday.  When Eugene reaches the cooler SSTs, it will begin a steady weakening trend.

Hurricane Eugene is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering it toward the northwest.  Eugene is expected to continue to move toward the northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Eugene will move parallel to the west coast of Baja California.

Tropical Storm Eugene Forms South of Baja California

A distinct center of circulation consolidated within a broader area of low pressure south of Baja California on Friday and the National Hurricane Center classified the system as Tropical Storm Eugene.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Eugene was located at latitude 11.9°N and longitude 111.2°W which put it about 765 miles (1230 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Eugene was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Eugene is large and there are numerous bands of showers and thunderstorms rotating around the center of circulation.  A primary rainband is wrapping around the southern and eastern sides of the center and the strongest winds are occurring northeast of the center of circulation.  The circulation is circular and symmetrical.  Thunderstorms around the core of Eugene are beginning to generate upper level divergence which is pumping out mass in all directions.

Tropical Storm Eugene will move through an environment that is favorable for intensification.  Eugene will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level winds over Tropical Storm Eugene are relatively weak and there is not a lot of vertical wind shear.  The circulation of Tropical Storm Eugene will continue to consolidate and it is likely to intensify during the weekend.  It is likely to become a hurricane and it could intensify rapidly if an eye forms.

Tropical Storm Eugene is moving near the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering it toward the northwest.  A generally northwesterly motion is expected to continue during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Eugene would move parallel to the west coast of Baja California and the center would remain west of the coast.

Hurricane Paine Prompts Warnings for Part of Baja California

Tropical Storm Paine intensified into a hurricane on Monday and the government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the west coast of Baja California.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Paine was located at latitude 23.4°N and longitude 116.5°W which put it about 315 miles (510 km) south-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico.  Paine was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

There is a Tropical Storm Warning in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Quintin.

The circulation of Hurricane Paine is showing signs of weakening.  It had a well formed eye surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms a few hours ago.  The eye is no longer apparent on infrared satellite imagery.  There are still thunderstorms near the center of circulation.  The circulation appears to be pulling cooler, drier and more stable air around the southwestern quadrant of Hurricane Paine.  More thunderstorms are occurring in rainbands in the northwestern quadrant of the circulation.  There are few thunderstorms in the rainbands in the eastern half of Hurricane Paine.

Hurricane Paine will be moving into an environment that will be very unfavorable for a tropical cyclone.  The center is currently moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 24°C.  It will move over water where the SST will be less than 22°C on Tuesday.  Less energy in the upper ocean and cooler, more stable air will cause the circulation to weaken and it could weaken quickly.  An upper level low southwest of California will generate some vertical wind shear which could separate the upper part of Hurricane Paine from the lower level circulation as Paine weakens.

Hurricane Paine is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge over Mexico which is steering Paine toward the north.  On its anticipated track the center of Paine will pass west of Punta Eugenia on Tuesday.  The center or the upper part of the circulation could be near Cabo San Quintin on Wednesday morning.  It is expected to weaken to a tropical depression or a remnant low before it reaches Cabo San Quintin.  However, Paine could bring tropical storm force winds to a portion of the coast, which is why the Tropical Storm Warning was issued.

Tropical Storm Paine Intensifying Quickly Southwest of Baja California

The Eastern North Pacific Ocean continues to spin out tropical cyclones.  Tropical Storm Paine intensified quickly on Sunday as it moved southwest of Baja California.  In 24 hours Paine intensified from a tropical depression to near hurricane strength.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Paine was located at latitude 19.5°N and longitude 113.8°W which put it about 345 miles (555 km/h) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Paine was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Tropical Storm Paine moved through a very favorable environment on Sunday.  The Sea Surface Temperature (SST) was near 28°C.  The upper level winds were light and there was little vertical wind shear.  The favorable environmental conditions allowed a tight inner core to develop rapidly at the center of Tropical Storm Paine.  Infrared and microwave satellite imagery suggest that an eye could be forming at the center of Paine.  A nearly complete ring of strong thunderstorms surrounds the developing eye.  A primary rainband exists in the eastern part of the circulation.  Thunderstorms at the core of Tropical Storm Paine are generating upper level divergence which is pumping out mass in all directions.

Tropical Storm Paine will be in a favorable environment for another 12 to 18 hours.  It is likely to intensify into a hurricane on Monday.  After that time Paine will start to move over cooler SSTs and it should start to weaken.  The air over the cooler SSTs is also drier and more stable and Paine could weaken quickly on Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Paine is moving around the western end of a ridge over Mexico which is steering it toward the northwest.  When Paine reaches the western end of the ridge axis, it will move more toward the north.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Paine will pass to the west of the southern end of Baja California during the next several days.

Hurricane Newton Brings Wind and Heavy Rain to Baja California

Hurricane Newton is bringing wind and heavy rain as it moves over southern Baja California.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Newton was located at latitude 24.7°N and longitude 111.4°W which put it about 75 miles (120 km) west-northwest of La Paz, Mexico.  Newton was moving toward the northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

There are Hurricane Warnings in effect for the portions of the coast from Cabo San Lazaro to Todos Santos, from Los Barriles to Mulege and from Guaymas to Bahia Kino.  Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the portions of the coast from Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Abreojos, from Mulege to Bahia San Juan Bautista, from Bahia Tempehuaya to Guaymas and from Bahia Kino to Puerto Libertad.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast form Bahia Kino to Puerto Libertad.

Hurricane Newton made landfall on the southern tip of Baja California on Tuesday morning.  It moved along the western coast of the peninsula and the center passed to the west of La Paz, Mexico.  Newton is now moving north across Baja California near Ciudad Constitucion.  Newton is generating winds to hurricane force.  Areas of heavier rain are occurring near La Paz and Mulege.  Very heavy rain is falling where the wind is pushing air up the slopes of mountains and there is a substantial risk of flash flooding in those areas.

The structure of Hurricane Newton is beginning to deteriorate as it interacts with the mountains on Baja California.  The circulation is starting to tilt toward the north as the low level circulation is partially blocked by west coast of Baja while the middle and upper portions of the circulation continue to move north.  The strongest thunderstorms are occurring south of the center of circulation.  Additional strong thunderstorms are occurring rain bands north of the center over the Gulf of California.

Hurricane Newton will weaken as long as the center of circulation is moving over the mountains in southern Baja California.  It is possible that the middle and upper parts of the circulation could temporarily become detached from the existing low level center.  A new low level center could form under the middle and upper parts of the circulation when they emerge over the Gulf of California.  The Sea Surface Temperature in the Gulf of California is 32°C, but Newton will only be over the water for a few hours.  So, the potential for significant re-intensification is slight.

Hurricane Newton is moving around the western end of a ridge of high pressure.  The ridge is steering Newton toward the north.  That general motion is expected to continue for the next few hours and then Hurricane Newton could turn more toward the north-northeast.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Newton will emerge over the Gulf of California near Loreto in about 12 hours.  Newton will make a landfall on the west coast of Mexico in about 18 hours.

Hurricane Newton will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to the southern part of Baja California for the rest of Tuesday.  It will also produce heavy rain over portions of western Mexico on Wednesday.  Flash flooding will continue to be a risk in areas of steep terrain.  The remnants of Hurricane Newton could transport moist air over southeastern Arizona and western New Mexico.

Rapidly Intensifying Hurricane Newton Threatens Baja California

Hurricane Newton intensified rapidly from a tropical depression on Monday into a powerful hurricane that threatens Baja California.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Newton was located at latitude 21.3°N and longitude 109.0°W which put it about 125 miles (200 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Newton was moving toward the northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (150 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lazaro to Mulege including Cabo San Lucas.  A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the portions of the coast from Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Abreojos, from Mulege to Bahia San Juan Bautista and from Mazatlan to Puerto Libertad.  A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from Guaymas to Puerto Libertad.

The circulation of Hurricane Newton organized very rapidly on Monday.  A primary rainband wrapped most of the way around an eye.  Multiple bands of thunderstorms developed outside the eyewall.  Thunderstorms near the core of Hurricane Newton generated strong upper level divergence which pumped out mass and allowed the winds speeds to increased rapidly.  Newton intensified from a tropical depression into a hurricane in 24 hours.  The maximum sustained wind speed has increased from 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) 24 hours ago to 90 m.p.h. (150 km/h).

Hurricane Newton is in an environment that could allow it to strengthen until it reaches the southern tip of Baja California.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is 29°C.  The upper level winds are light and there is little vertical wind shear.  When Hurricane Newton reaches Baja California, it will weaken as it crossed over the mountains.  However, it could still be a hurricane when it reaches the warm water in the Gulf of California.

Hurricane Newton is moving around the western end of a mid-level ridge.  The ridge should steer it toward the north-northwest for another 12 hours.  When Newton reaches the end of the ridge, it will turn toward the north-northeast.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Newton will reach the southern portion of Baja California in less than 12 hours.  Newton could emerge over the Gulf of California in about 24 hours.  Newton could still be a hurricane when it reaches the western coast of Mexico near Guaymas on Wednesday.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Newton is 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 12.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index is 26.1.  Given that Hurricane Newton is likely to intensify until it makes landfall in Baja California, it has the potential to cause regional serious wind damage.  Heavy rain and flash flooding will pose an even greater threat in areas of steep terrain.  Newton has the potential to be a destructive hurricane.

Tropical Storm Newton Forms, Hurricane Warning Issued for Baja California

Tropical Storm Newton formed Sunday within a large area of thunderstorms west of Mexico.  Based on the forecast track and intensity the government of Mexico issued watches and warnings for parts of the west coast of Mexico and Baja California.  A Hurricane Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from La Paz to Santa Fe including Cabo San Lucas.  A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes.  Hurricane Watches were issued for the portions of the coast from La Paz to San Evaristo and from Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro.  Tropical Storm Watches were issued for the portions of the coast from San Evaristo to Loreto, from Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito and from Mazatlan to Huatabampito.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Newton was located at latitude 17.0°N and longitude 105.7°W which put it about 490 miles (790 km) southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Newton was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Newton is still organizing.  There is a broad cyclonic rotation southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Clusters of thunderstorms may be spinning up smaller cyclonic circulations within the larger circulation.  Bands of thunderstorms are developing in the southern and eastern of the portions of the larger cyclonic circulation.  There is upper level divergence pumping mass out to the west of the center, but there is no apparent tight core at the center of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Newton is in an environment that is favorable for intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge over Mexico is producing northeasterly winds which are blowing across the top of Tropical Storm Newton,  The upper level winds are restricting the upper level divergence to the east of Newton,  but the vertical wind shear should not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  It is possible that some drier air from Mexico could be pulled into the eastern half of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Newton is forecast to intensify on Monday.  The broad circulation could slow the rate of intensification until a distinct inner core forms.  Once a core develops, then Tropical Storm Newton could intensify more quickly and a period of rapid intensification may be possible.  Tropical Storm Newton could intensify into a hurricane before it reaches Baja California.

The ridge over Mexico is steering Newton toward the north-northwest and that motion is expected to continue for another day or so.  An upper level trough approaching the west coast of North America is expected to turn Tropical Storm Newton more toward the north as it nears the southern tip of Baja California.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Newton could be very near the southern tip of Baja California in about 36 hours.