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Tropical Cyclone Bulbul Makes Landfall Southeast of Kolkata

Tropical Cyclone Bulbul made landfall southeast of Kolkata, India on Saturday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bulbul was located at latitude 21.8°N and longitude 89.2°E which put it about 75 miles (120 km) southeast of Kolkata, India.  Bulbul was movign toward the east-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Bulbul made landfall on the coast of West Bengal southeast of Kolkata, India on Saturday.  The India Meteorological Department’s weather radar in Kolkata indicated that the eye of Bulbul crossed the coast of West Bengal.  Tropical Cyclone Bulbul was the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon at the time of landfall.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center.

The northern section of the eyewall of Tropical Cyclone Bulbul moved across the southeastern part of West Bengal and the southwestern portion of Bangladesh.  Thunderstorms in the eyewall were dropping heavy rain over those areas.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms in the northeastern part of Bulbul were also dropping heavy rain over other parts of Bangladesh.  The heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.  Southerly winds blowing around the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Bulbul were pushing water toward the coast.  Bulbul could cause a storm surge of 6 to 9 feet (2 to 3 meters) in some coastal locations.

Tropical Cyclone Bulbul will move around the northwestern part of a ridge of high pressure over southeast Asia.  The ridge will steer Bulbul toward the east-northeast during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Bulbul will move over coastal areas of Bangladesh between Dhaka and Chittagong.  Bulbul will weaken gradually as the center moves over land.  The wind speeds and storm surges will gradually decrease.  Tropical Cyclone Bulbul will continue to drop heavy rain over southern Bangladesh during the next 24 hours and the threat of fresh water floods will remain.

Tropical Cyclone Bulbul Moving Toward Kolkata

Tropical Cyclone Bulbul moved toward Kolkata, India on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bulbul was located at latitude 19.7°N and longitude 87.8°E which put it about 225 miles (360 km) south of Kolkata, India.  Bulbul was moving toward the north at 8 m.p.h. (13 k/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 861 mb.

It appeared that Tropical Cyclone Bulbul may have pulled drier air from India around the southern and eastern sides of its circulation.  Rainbands in those parts of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Microwave satellite images provided some evidence of an eye at the center of circulation.  A ring of thunderstorms around the eye exhibited weaker sections on the eastern side of the eye.  The strongest winds were occurring in the ring of storms.  Other strong bands of thunderstorms were present in the western half of the circulation.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Bulbul.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Bulbul was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size index (HSI) was 13.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.7.  Bulbul was capable of causing serious damage.

Tropical Cyclone Bulbul may be near its maximum intensity.  Bulbul will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  So, there is sufficient energy in the upper Bay of Bengal to support further intensification.  However, the introduction of drier air into the southern and eastern parts of the circulation will inhibit the development of thunderstorms in those portions of the tropical cyclone.  Bulbul will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over southeast Asia.  The ridge will produce some vertical wind shear which will also inhibit further intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Bulbul could weaken when it nears the coast around the northern Bay of Bengal.

Tropical Cyclone Bulbul will move around the western end of the ridge over southeast Asia.  The ridge will steer Bulbul toward the north for another 18 to 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Bulbul could approach the coast of India south of Kolkata in about 18 hours.  Bulbul will turn more toward the east when it moves around the northwestern part of the ridge in a day or so.

Tropical Cyclone Bulbul could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it makes landfall in West Bengal south of Kolkata.  Bulbul will bring gusty winds to the coast of West Bengal and Bangladesh.  Tropical Cyclone Bulbul will be capable of generating a storm surge of up to 6 to 9 feet ( 2 to 3 meters) along portions of the coast around the northern Bay of Bengal.  That area is particularly prone to storm surges.  Bulbul will drop locally heavy rain over parts of West Bengal and Bangladesh when it moves inland.  Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Fani Makes Landfall in India

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Fani made landfall near Puri, India on Thursday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fani was located at latitude 19.4°N and longitude 85.8°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) south of Puri, India.  Fani was moving toward the north-northeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 922 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fani is a large dangerous system.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extend out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 225 miles (360 km) from the center over the Bay of Bengal.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Fani is 31.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 25.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 57.2.  Tropical Cyclone Fani has the potential to cause widespread significant damage.

Tropical Cyclone Fani will cause the greatest wind damage along the northeast coast of Odisha.  It could also produce a significant storm surge along the coast.  The surge will be highest in bays, estuaries and mouths of rivers.  Fani will drop heavy rain over northeast Odisha, West Bengal and portions of Bangladesh.  The heavy rain is likely to cause inland fresh water floods in some locations.  Wind and rain could cause damage around Kolkata (Calcutta), India.

An upper level trough over India will steer Tropical Cyclone Fani toward the northeast during the next 48 hours.  On its anticipated path Fani will pass near Bhubaneshwar, Cuttack and Baleshwar in Odisha.  Tropical Cyclone Fani could still be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it passes near those locations.  Fani will weaken steadily while it moves northeast.  It is likely to be the equivalent of a tropical storm when it passes near Kolkata.  Tropical Cyclone Fani will weaken to the equivalent of a tropical depression when it passes over Bangladesh, but it could still drop heavy rain around Dhaka.  Serious flooding could occur in Bangladesh while Fani weakens.

Dangerous Tropical Cyclone Fani Near Northeast India

Dangerous Tropical Cyclone Fani neared the coast of northeastern India on Thursday.  Fani rapidly intensified into the nearly the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fani was located at latitude 18.0°N and longitude 84.9°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) east of Visakhapatnam, India.  Fani was moving toward the north at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 918 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fani intensified rapidly during recent hours.  A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) developed at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Fani.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fani grew larger as it intensified.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 185 miles (295 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Fani was 33.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 21.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 55.0.  Tropical Cyclone Fani was capable of causing widespread significant damage.

Tropical Cyclone Fani is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge is steering Fani toward the north.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Fani is likely to make landfall near Brahmapur, India in about 12 hours.  An upper level trough over India will steer Fani toward the northeast after it makes landfall.  Tropical Cyclone Fani could pass near Puri, Bhubaneswar, Cuttack and Kolkata (Calcutta), India.

Tropical Cyclone Fani will remain in a favorable environment during the 12 hours prior to landfall.  Fani will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through an environment where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Fani will weaken after landfall.  The upper level trough over India will produce stronger southwesterly winds, which will increase the vertical wind shear after Fani makes landfall.  More wind shear and more friction over the land will cause Tropical Cyclone Fani to weaken to the equivalent of a tropical storm within 24 hours after landfall occurs.

Tropical Cyclone Fani is a dangerous tropical cyclone.  The strengthen and size of Fani will create the potential for widespread significant damage.  The counterclockwise circulation will cause the winds to blow water toward the coast along the northern Bay of Bengal.  Tropical Cyclone Fani could generate a storm surge of 15 to 20 feet (4.5 to 6.0 meters) in bays, estuaries and the mouths of rivers which act as funnels during storm surges.  Heavy rain could cause inland fresh water flooding in parts of northeastern India and Bangladesh.  The greatest threats are to the Indian states of Odisha (Orissa) and West Bengal.

Tropical Cyclone Fani Strengthens to Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Fani strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fani was located at latitude 14.1°N and longitude 83.9°E which put it about 670 miles (1080 km) south-southwest of Kolkata (Calcutta), India.  Fani was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 946 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fani strengthened on Tuesday.  A small eye emerged at the center of circulation.  The eye was surround by a ring of thunderstorms.  The storms were stronger in the western half of the ring and that was where the strongest winds were.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Fani.  The stronger bands were south and west of the center of Fani.  It appeared that a little drier air may have been pulled into the northern half of the circulation and the bands were weaker in that part of the circulation.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Fani had a moderately sized circulation.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 40 miles (65 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 150 miles (240 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Fani was 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 36.8.

Tropical Cyclone Fani will remain in an environment favorable for strong tropical cyclones during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Fani will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move near the western end of an upper level ridge and the upper level winds will not be too strong.  The major inhibiting factor will be the drier air over the northern half of the circulation.  Tropical Cyclone Fani could maintain its intensity and even strengthen during the next 24 hours if the drier air moistens over the warm water of the Bay of Bengal.

Tropical Cyclone Fani will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge on Wednesday.  Fani will move more toward the north when it rounds the end of the ridge.  An upper level trough approaching India from the west will turn Tropical Cyclone Fani toward the northeast in about 18 to 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Fani could approach the coast of Orissa state southwest of Kolkata in about 48 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Fani could bring strong winds to parts of Orissa and West Bengal.  Fani could also cause a significant storm surge along portions of the coast around the northern Bay of Bengal.  Locally heavy rain could also cause floods in Orissa and West Bengal.

Tropical Cyclone Fani Develops East of Sri Lanka

Tropical Cyclone Fani developed over the southern Bay of Bengal east of Sri Lanka on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fani was located at latitude 7.8°N and longitude 88.6°E which put it about 635 miles (1020 km) east-southeast of Chennai, India.  Fani was moving toward the north-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation formed on the eastern side of a cluster of thunderstorms over the southern Bay of Bengal on Saturday and the India Meteorological Department designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Fani.  The circulation around Fani was still organizing.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms were developing in two clusters which were east and northwest of the center of circulation.  Bands in other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Fani will move into an environment that is more favorable for intensification.  Fani is currently under the southern part of an upper level ridge.  The ridge is producing easterly winds which are causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear is the primary factor slowing the intensification of Tropical Cyclone Fani.  Fani is forecast to move under the axis of the ridge where the upper level winds are weaker.  There will be less vertical wind shear when that happens.  Tropical Cyclone Fani will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  So, intensification is very likely when the wind shear decreases.  Fani is likely to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.  Rapid intensification could occur if the inner core of the circulation becomes more well developed.

Tropical Cyclone Fani will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge over southeast Asia.  The ridge will steer Fani toward the north-northwest during the next several days.  It will move more toward the north when it moves around the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Fani will move toward the northern Bay of Bengal.

Tropical Cyclone 04B Develops Over Northern Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone 04B developed over the northern Bay of Bengal on Friday.  The circulation around an area of low pressure southeast of India strengthened on Friday and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) designated the system as Tropical Cyclone 04B.  Data from a scatterometer on a satellite indicated there were winds to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) in the western part of the circulation.  The Indian Meteorological Department was classifying the low pressure system as a depression and that was why it did not have a name.

At 4:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone 04B was located at latitude 18.7°N and longitude 86.9°E which put it about 340 miles (550 km) southwest of Kolkata, India.  It was moving toward the north at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Although there was a well defined low level center of circulation, the rest of the circulation of Tropical Cyclone 04B was not particularly well organized.  There were no strong thunderstorms near the center of circulation.  The stronger thunderstorms were occurring in a rainband 80 miles (130 km) northeast of the center of circulation.  Other bands revolving around the center consisted primarily of low clouds and showers.

Tropical Cyclone 04B is moving through an environment that is only marginally favorable for intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  So, there is enough energy in the upper ocean to support intensification, but that is about the only factor favorable for intensification.  Tropical Cyclone 04B is moving underneath the western end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge is producing southeasterly winds which are blowing across the top of the circulation.  Those winds are also causing moderate vertical wind shear and the shear is probably the reason why the band of thunderstorms is displaced northeast of the center of circulation.  It also appears that the western side of the circulation of Tropical Cyclone 04B is also pulling some drier air from over India into the system.  Tropical Cyclone 04B is unlikely to intensify due to the effects of moderate wind shear and drier air.

The upper level ridge is steering Tropical Cyclone 04B toward the north.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 04B could make landfall near Kolkata in 24 to 30 hours.  The primary risk is locally heavy rain which could cause flooding.  The rain is likely to reach northeastern India a few hours before the center of circulation makes landfall.

Tropical Depression Forms Over Bay of Bengal

A tropical depression formed over the Bay of Bengal on Wednesday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of the tropical depression was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 83.3°E which put it about 105 miles (170 km) south of Visakhapatnam, India.  The depression was moving toward the north-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A low level center of circulation developed on the southwestern edge of a cluster of showers and thunderstorms over the Bay of Bengal and the Indian Meteorological Department classified the system as a depression.  The circulation is not particularly well organized.  As noted above, the low level center is on the southwestern side of showers and thunderstorms.  Several bands of showers and storms formed northeast of the center.  There were not many thunderstorms near the center of circulation.  There were bands of showers and lower clouds in the western half of the circulation.  An upper level trough over India is producing southwesterly winds which are blowing over the top of the depression.  Those winds are causing moderate vertical wind shear, which is tilting the upper part of the depression to the northeast of the low level center of circulation.  The depression also appears to be pulling drier air from India around the western side of the circulation.  The combination of wind shear and drier air is probably responsible for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

The depression will move through an environment that is marginally favorable for intensification.  It will move over water there the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  So, there is enough energy in the upper ocean to support intensification.  However, the upper level trough over India will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear, which will inhibit the consolidation of the low level circulation.  The depression is also likely to continue to draw in drier air from over India into the western part of the circulation.  The depression could strengthen, but it could also weaken if the upper level winds get stronger.

The trough over India is steering the depression slowly toward the north-northeast and that general motion is expected to continue.  On its anticipated track the depression is expected to move toward the northern Bay of Bengal during the next several days.  The depression could make landfall over northeastern India or Bangladesh later this week.

The primary risk from the depression will be locally heavy rain, which could cause flash floods in parts of eastern India and Bangladesh.  The wind will push water toward the north coast of the Bay of Bengal and the depression could cause a storm surge of several feet (approximately one meter).

Tropical Cyclone Forms Over Northern Bay of Bengal

A tropical cyclone formed over the northern Bay of Bengal on Thursday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of the tropical cyclone was located at latitude 20.0°N and longitude 86.5°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) south-southwest of Paradip, India.  The cyclone was moving toward the north-northeast at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A center of low pressure developed within a broader area of showers and thunderstorms over the northern Bay of Bengal on Thursday.  A wide band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the eastern side of the circulation.  The center of circulation was west of that primary rainband.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms formed in other parts of the circulation.  The circulation exhibited enough organization and characteristics to be classified as a tropical cyclone.  The Indian Meteorological Department was giving the the system a classification of depression.

The tropical cyclone is being steered north by a ridge of high pressure to its east.  On its anticipated track the tropical cyclone with make landfall on the coast of the northern Bay of Bengal within 12 hours.  Although the tropical cyclone is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C and there is not much vertical wind shear, it does not have much time to intensify before the center moves inland.  The tropical cyclone could strenthen a little more prior to landfall.  It will bring a storm surge of several feet (one to two meters) to the coast along the northern Bay of Bengal.  The tropical cyclone will also drop locally heavy rain and flooding could occur in some parts of India and Bangladesh.

Stronger Tropical Cyclone Mora Near Landfall in Bangladesh

A stronger Tropical Cyclone Mora neared landfall between Cox’s Bazar and Chittagong, Bangladesh.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mora was located at latitude 21.8°N and longitude 91.9°E which put it about 90 miles (145 km) south of Chittagong, Bangladesh.  Mora was moving toward the north at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.  Tropical Cyclone Mora was the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

The inner core of Tropical Cyclone Mora organized quickly on Monday.  The primary rainband wrapped entirely around the center of circulation and an eye formed.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core Tropical Cyclone Mora.  Thunderstorms near the core of Mora generated strong upper level divergence which pumped out mass and allowed the surface pressure to decrease.  The decrease of pressure caused the surface winds to increase to hurricane/typhoon intensity.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon strength extended out about 25 miles (40 km) from the center.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 150 miles (240 km) from the center.  The strongest winds were occurring in the eyewall and over the Bay of Bengal.

Tropical Cyclone Mora is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge is steering Mora toward the north and that general motion is expected to continue for another 12 to 18 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Mora will move near the coast of Bangladesh between Cox’s Bazar and Chittagong.  The center is likely to make landfall near Chittagong during the next few hours.

The recent intensification of Tropical Cyclone Mora has made it a more dangerous storm.  The increased wind speed will increase the potential for wind damage.  In addition, stronger winds will increase the height of the storm surge along the coast.  A storm surge of 6 to 9 feet (2 to 3 meters) will be possible along the coast between Cox’s Bazar and Chittagong.  The increase in organization of the core has also created the potential for heavier rain and greater fresh water flooding of rivers and streams.

Tropical Cyclone Mora will start to weaken after the center makes landfall.  However, it will continue to generate areas of heavy rain while it moves inland over Bangladesh and northeastern India.