Tag Archives: Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone Amphan Intensifies Into Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Amphan intensified into equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the Bay of Bengal on Monday.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Amphan was located at latitude 13.9°N and longitude 86.5°E which put it about 635 miles (1025 km) south-southwest of Kolkata, India.  Amphan was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 909 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Amphan appeared to develop a concentric eyewall structure on Monday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the original small eye and eyewall.  The inner eye had a diameter of 10 miles (16 km).  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the inner eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  An outer eyewall with a diameter of 50 mile (80 km) surrounded the inner eye.    Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the concentric eyewalls.  Storms in the core of Amphan were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

Tropical Cyclone Amphan had a large circulation.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (325 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Amphan was 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI0 was 51.5.  Tropical Cyclone Amphan was capable of causing catastrophic damage.

Tropical Cyclone Amphan will move through an environment very favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 36 hours.  Amphan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  It will move under an upper level ridge where the upper level winds are weak.  There will be little vertical wind shear.  The eyewall replacement cycle will stop the intensification of Tropical Cyclone Amphan.  Amphan will weaken, at least temporarily, when the inner eyewall dissipates.  When that occurs the strongest winds will be occurring in the outer eyewall.  The eyewall replacement cycle could cause the circulation to increase in size.

Tropical Cyclone Amphan will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Southeast Asia.  The high will steer Amphan toward the north-northeast.  On its anticipate track the center of Tropical Cyclone Amphan will approach the coast around the northern Bay of Bengal in 36 hours.  Amphan will be a large dangerous tropical cyclone when it approaches the coast.  Tropical Cyclone Amphan will generate a significant storm surge along the coast of Bangladesh.  Amphan will cause major wind damage.  It will drop locally heavy rain over northeast India and Bangladesh.  Freshwater flooding will occur.

Tropical Cyclone Amphan Rapidly Intensifies Into Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Amphan rapidly intensified into the equivalent of a major hurricane over the Bay of Bengal on Sunday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Amphan was located at latitude 13.3°N and longitude 86.4°E which put it about 675 miles (1090 km) south-southwest of Kolkata, India.  Amphan was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 919 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Amphan rapidly intensified into a large powerful tropical cyclone on Sunday night.  A small circular eye was at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Amphan.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Amphan grew in size on Sunday.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 210 miles (335 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Amphan was 31.6.  The Hurricane Size Index was 16.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 48.4.  Tropical Cyclone Amphan was capable of causing widespread significant damage.

Tropical Cyclone Amphan will remain in an environment capable of supporting a strong tropical cyclone during the next 36 to 48 hours.  Amphan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  It will move under an upper level ridge.  The upper level wind will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The ridge will actually enhance the upper level divergence.  If a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Tropical Cyclone Amphan to weaken.  Tropical Cyclone Amphan is likely to remain a large, powerful tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Amphan will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Southeast Asia.  The high will steer Amphan toward the north.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Amphan could approach the coast of Bangladesh in 48 hours.  Amphan is could still be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Bangladesh.  Tropical Cyclone Amphan could generate a significant storm surge at the coast.  Amphan will cause major wind damage and heavy rain could cause freshwater flooding.

Tropical Cyclone Amphan Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Amphan strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Sunday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Amphan was located at latitude 12.3°N and longitude 86.4°E which put it about 695 miles (1120 km) south-southwest of Kolkata, India.  Amphan was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Amphan continued to intensify on Sunday.  A small circular eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) developed at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surround the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Amphan.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.  Wins to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Amphan will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 to 48 hours.  Amphan will move over water where Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  It will move under an upper level ridge over the Bay of Bengal.  The winds in the upper level ridge are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Amphan will continue to intensify and it is likely to strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Amphan will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Southeast Asia.  The high will steer Amphan toward the north during the next 48 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Amphan will approach the coast around the northern Bay of Bengal in less than 72 hours.  Amphan will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to northeast India and to Bangladesh.  Tropical Cyclone Amphan is likely to generate a significant storm surge along the northern coast of the Bay of Bengal.

Tropical Cyclone Bulbul Strengthens over Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone Bulbul strengthened over the Bay of Bengal on Wednesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bulbul was located at latitude 14.8°N and longitude 89.9°E which put it about 520 miles (840 km) south of Kolkata, India.  Bulbul was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

A low pressure system that was formerly designated at Tropical Storm Matmo when it was over the South China Sea moved across southeast Asia and over the Bay of Bengal during the past few days.  The low pressure system became nearly stationary west of the Andaman Islands.  More thunderstorms began to develop and bands began to form on Tuesday.  The low pressure system strengthened on Wednesday and the India Meteorological Department designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Bulbul.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Bulbul was still organizing on Wednesday night.  More thunderstorms were developing around the center of circulation.  Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Bulbul.  The stronger rainbands were in the western half of the circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Bulbul will move through an area favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  Bulbul will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over southeast Asia.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Bulbul is likely to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within 36 to 48 hours.

The ridge over southeast Asia will steer Tropical Cyclone Bulbul toward the north during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Bulbul will approach the coast around the northern Bay of Bengal in two or three days.  Bulbul could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it approaches the coast.

Elsewhere, a much weaker Tropical Cyclone Maha neared the west coast of India.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Maha was located at latitude 20.0°N and longitude 70.2°E which put it about 75 miles (120 km) southwest of Dui, India.  Maha was moving toward the east-northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.  Tropical Cyclone Maha will drop rain of southern Gujarat on Thursday.

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Fani Makes Landfall in India

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Fani made landfall near Puri, India on Thursday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fani was located at latitude 19.4°N and longitude 85.8°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) south of Puri, India.  Fani was moving toward the north-northeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 922 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fani is a large dangerous system.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extend out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 225 miles (360 km) from the center over the Bay of Bengal.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Fani is 31.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 25.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 57.2.  Tropical Cyclone Fani has the potential to cause widespread significant damage.

Tropical Cyclone Fani will cause the greatest wind damage along the northeast coast of Odisha.  It could also produce a significant storm surge along the coast.  The surge will be highest in bays, estuaries and mouths of rivers.  Fani will drop heavy rain over northeast Odisha, West Bengal and portions of Bangladesh.  The heavy rain is likely to cause inland fresh water floods in some locations.  Wind and rain could cause damage around Kolkata (Calcutta), India.

An upper level trough over India will steer Tropical Cyclone Fani toward the northeast during the next 48 hours.  On its anticipated path Fani will pass near Bhubaneshwar, Cuttack and Baleshwar in Odisha.  Tropical Cyclone Fani could still be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it passes near those locations.  Fani will weaken steadily while it moves northeast.  It is likely to be the equivalent of a tropical storm when it passes near Kolkata.  Tropical Cyclone Fani will weaken to the equivalent of a tropical depression when it passes over Bangladesh, but it could still drop heavy rain around Dhaka.  Serious flooding could occur in Bangladesh while Fani weakens.

Tropical Cyclone Fani Strengthens to Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Fani strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fani was located at latitude 14.1°N and longitude 83.9°E which put it about 670 miles (1080 km) south-southwest of Kolkata (Calcutta), India.  Fani was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 946 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fani strengthened on Tuesday.  A small eye emerged at the center of circulation.  The eye was surround by a ring of thunderstorms.  The storms were stronger in the western half of the ring and that was where the strongest winds were.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Fani.  The stronger bands were south and west of the center of Fani.  It appeared that a little drier air may have been pulled into the northern half of the circulation and the bands were weaker in that part of the circulation.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Fani had a moderately sized circulation.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 40 miles (65 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 150 miles (240 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Fani was 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 36.8.

Tropical Cyclone Fani will remain in an environment favorable for strong tropical cyclones during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Fani will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move near the western end of an upper level ridge and the upper level winds will not be too strong.  The major inhibiting factor will be the drier air over the northern half of the circulation.  Tropical Cyclone Fani could maintain its intensity and even strengthen during the next 24 hours if the drier air moistens over the warm water of the Bay of Bengal.

Tropical Cyclone Fani will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge on Wednesday.  Fani will move more toward the north when it rounds the end of the ridge.  An upper level trough approaching India from the west will turn Tropical Cyclone Fani toward the northeast in about 18 to 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Fani could approach the coast of Orissa state southwest of Kolkata in about 48 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Fani could bring strong winds to parts of Orissa and West Bengal.  Fani could also cause a significant storm surge along portions of the coast around the northern Bay of Bengal.  Locally heavy rain could also cause floods in Orissa and West Bengal.

Tropical Cyclone Fani Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Fani strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Bay of Bengal on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fani was located at latitude 11.4°N and longitude 86.9°E which put it about 800 miles (1290 km) south of Kolkata (Calcutta), India.  Fani was moving toward the north at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fani exhibited greater organization on Monday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped most of the way around the eastern and northern sides of the center of circulation.  Although there was still a break on the southwestern side of the center, an eye may have been forming at the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Fani and the circulation was much more symmetrical.  Storm around the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 140 miles (225 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Fani will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Fani will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge where the winds are weak.  Very warm water and little vertical wind shear will allow Tropical Cyclone Fani to intensify during the next 48 hours.  It could intensify rapidly once the inner core is fully developed.  Fani is likely to strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next  2 to 3 days.

Tropical Cyclone Fani will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge during the next few days.  The ridge will steer Fani in a generally northward direction.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Fani could approach the coast of India southwest of Kolkata in three or four days.  Fani could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it approaches the coast.  Tropical Cyclone Fani has the potential to cause major wind damage.  It will also generate a dangerous storm surge along the coast.  Heavy rain will create the potential for fresh water flooding in inland locations.  The greatest risks at this time are for the Indian states of Orissa and West Bengal.

Tropical Cyclone Fani Develops East of Sri Lanka

Tropical Cyclone Fani developed over the southern Bay of Bengal east of Sri Lanka on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fani was located at latitude 7.8°N and longitude 88.6°E which put it about 635 miles (1020 km) east-southeast of Chennai, India.  Fani was moving toward the north-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation formed on the eastern side of a cluster of thunderstorms over the southern Bay of Bengal on Saturday and the India Meteorological Department designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Fani.  The circulation around Fani was still organizing.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms were developing in two clusters which were east and northwest of the center of circulation.  Bands in other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Fani will move into an environment that is more favorable for intensification.  Fani is currently under the southern part of an upper level ridge.  The ridge is producing easterly winds which are causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear is the primary factor slowing the intensification of Tropical Cyclone Fani.  Fani is forecast to move under the axis of the ridge where the upper level winds are weaker.  There will be less vertical wind shear when that happens.  Tropical Cyclone Fani will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  So, intensification is very likely when the wind shear decreases.  Fani is likely to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.  Rapid intensification could occur if the inner core of the circulation becomes more well developed.

Tropical Cyclone Fani will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge over southeast Asia.  The ridge will steer Fani toward the north-northwest during the next several days.  It will move more toward the north when it moves around the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Fani will move toward the northern Bay of Bengal.

Tropical Cyclone Phethai Brings Wind and Rain to India

Tropical Cyclone Phethai brought wind and rain to parts of eastern India on Sunday night.  The center of Phethai made landfall southwest of Visakhapatnam, India near the Mouths of the Godavari.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Phethai was located at latitude 15.7°N and longitude 82.4°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) southwest of Visakhapatnam.  Phethai was moving toward the north at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 55 m.p.h. (90 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Phethai strengthened earlier on Sunday, but it started to weaken slightly when it approached the east coast of India.  Phethai moved over slightly cooler water as it moved farther north over the western Bay of Bengal.  Tropical Cyclone Phethai moved closer to upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes and the vertical wind shear increased.  Cooler water and more wind shear caused Phethai to start to weaken when it approached the coast.

Even though Tropical Cyclone Phethai started to weaken when it approached the coast of India, the circulation remained well organized.  There was a distinct center of circulation.  Stronger thunderstorms were occurring just to the west of the center.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms were located north and east of the center of Tropical Cyclone Phethai.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 140 miles (225 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Phethai is moving around the western end of a ridge of high pressure over southeast Asia.  The ridge will steer Phethai in a north-northeasterly direction.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Phethai will move over eastern Andhra Pradesh and southern Orissa.  Phethai will drop locally heavy rain as it moves inland and flash flooding could occur in some locations.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Kenanga strengthened over the South Indian Ocean.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kenanga was located at latitude 12.7°S and longitude 83.7°E which put it about 1095 miles (1770 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Kenanga was moving toward the southwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Phethai Forms Over Southwest Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone Phethai formed over the southwest Bay of Bengal on Saturday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Phethai was located at latitude 11.1°N and longitude 84.5°E which put it about 480 miles (775 km) south-southeast of Visakhapatnam, India.  Phethai was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

More thunderstorms developed closer to the center of a low pressure system over the southwestern Bay of Bengal and the Indian Meteorological Department designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Phethai.  The distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  Most of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring northwest of the center of circulation.  There were fewer thunderstorms southeast of the center, although several bands of thunderstorms were developing on the eastern periphery of the circulation.  Storms northwest of the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the north of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Phethai will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification.  Phethai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It will move around the eastern end of an upper level ridge over southeast Asia.  The ridge is already producing southeasterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are causing moderate vertical wind shear and the shear is the reason for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.  The wind shear will continue and it will inhibit the intensification of Tropical Cyclone Phethai.  Phethai could strengthen during the next 24 to 36 hours, but the rate of intensification is likely to be slow.

The ridge over southeast Asia will steer Tropical Cyclone Phethai north-northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Phethai will move toward the east coast of India.  Tropical Cyclone Phethai could approach the coast near Visakhaptnam in about 48 hours.  Phethai will bring gusty winds but heavy rain and flooding will be greater risks.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone 06S formed over the South Indian Ocean on Saturday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone 06S was located at latitude 9.1°S and longitude 91.2°E which put it about 1285 miles (2070 km) east of Diego Garcia.  It was moving toward the south-southeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.