Tag Archives: Bermuda

Tropical Depression 19 Strengthens to Tropical Storm Rina

Tropical Depression Nineteen strengthened into Tropical Storm Rina on Monday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Rina was located at latitude 30.4°N and longitude 49.9°W which put it about 890 miles (1430 km) east of Bermuda.  Rina was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

Although an upper level low northwest of Tropical Depression Nineteen continued to produce westerly winds which caused moderate vertical wind shear, stronger thunderstorms developed east of the center of circulation.  Downdrafts in those storms were able to transport stronger winds to the surface and winds to tropical storm force were occurring at the surface.  The National Hurricane Center upgraded Tropical Depression Nineteen to Tropical Storm Rina on Monday night.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Rina is asymmetrical.  The stronger storms are occurring east of the center of circulation.  The winds to tropical storm force are occurring northeast of the center.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 60 miles to the northeast of the center of circulation.  The bands west of the center consist primarily of lower clouds and showers.  The upper level westerly winds are tilting the circulation toward the east with height.

The moderate vertical wind shear will continue to inhibit the intensification of Tropical Storm Rina.  Rina will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 25°C.  Although the water is cooler than it is in the tropical, colder air in the upper levels will make the atmosphere unstable enough to allow thunderstorms to continue to develop.  The vertical wind shear could decrease during the next 24 to 36 hours and some intensification is possible.  When Tropical Storm Rina moves farther north, it will move over colder water.

The upper level low to the northwest of Tropical Storm Rina and a ridge to the east of Rina are steering the tropical storm toward the north.  A general motion is expected to continue for another day or two.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Rina will pass between Labrador and the Azores.

Tropical Depression Nineteen Forms East of Bermuda

Tropical Depression Nineteen formed east of Bermuda on Monday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen was located at latitude 29.5°N and longitude 50.4°W which put it about 875 miles east of Bermuda.  It was moving toward the north-northeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1013 mb.

A small low pressure system has been meandering over the Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Azores.  More showers and thunderstorms formed near the center of the the low and the circulation became more circular.  Because the low pressure system developed the characteristics of a tropical cyclone, the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Nineteen on Monday morning.

The circulation of Tropical Depression Nineteen is being affected by vertical wind shear.  An upper level low located to the northwest of the system is producing easterly winds which are blowing across the top of the depression.  Those winds are producing moderate vertical wind shear shear which is tilting the upper portion of the circulation to the east.  The surface center of circulation was exposed on visible satellite images.  Most of the showers and thunderstorms were occurring to the east of the center.

Tropical Depression Nineteen is forecast to intensify into a tropical storm.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 25.5°C, which is marginally warm enough to support intensification.  The upper level low will continue to produce vertical wind shear which will inhibit intensification during the next 12 to 24 hours.  The shear is forecast to decrease on Tuesday and Tropical Depression Nineteen could strengthen into a tropical storm before it moves over colder water.

Tropical Depression Nineteen is currently in an area where the steering currents are weak.  The circulation around the upper level low to the northwest of the Tropical Depression is being deflected around an upper level ridge to the east of the depression.  Some of the flow is turning northward and the rest of the flow is turning toward the south.  The orientation of the upper low and ridge is forecast to change and the two systems are forecast to steer the depression toward the northeast later this week.  However, if the wind shear stays strong enough to prevent the circulation of the depression from growing vertically, then the winds in the lower level could steer the depression more toward the west.

Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms Over Eastern Atlantic

The busy 2017 Atlantic hurricane season continued when Tropical Storm Ophelia formed over the eastern Atlantic Ocean on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was located at latitude 31.5°N and longitude 39.6°W which put it about 845 miles (1355 km) west-southwest of the Azores.  Ophelia was moving toward the northeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Thunderstorms formed on Monday near the center of a low pressure system which had been lingering over the eastern Atlantic Ocean and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Ophelia.  The thunderstorms formed near the eastern side of the center and several bands of showers and thunderstorms formed in the rest of the eastern half of the circulation.  There were fewer thunderstorms in the western half of Ophelia.  The thunderstorms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the east of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Ophelia is an environment that is somewhat favorable to intensification.  Ophelia is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 27°C.  It is near the axis of an upper level trough which is oriented east to west over the Atlantic Ocean.  The trough is producing westerly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation and those winds are causing some vertical wind shear.  However, since Ophelia is over water where the SST is 27°C, the clouds are not rising as far into the atmosphere as they would if the water was warmer and some of the upper level winds are blowing completely over the top of the circulation of the tropical storm.  So, the vertical wind shear is not as significant as it could be if the top of Ophelia was higher in the atmosphere.  Tropical Storm Ophelia is likely to strengthen during the next several days and it could eventually become a hurricane.

Since Tropical Storm Ophelia is near the axis of the upper level trough, the steering winds are weaker.  The westerly flow is pushing Ophelia slowly toward the northeast.  The orientation of the trough is forecast to change during the next day or two and Ophelia is expected to move more toward the east-southeast.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Ophelia is expected to meander over the eastern Atlantic Ocean for several more days.

Tropical Storm Maria Brings Gusty Winds, Big Waves to Outer Banks

Tropical Storm Maria brought gusty winds and big waves to the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Tuesday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Maria was located at latitude 34.9°N and longitude 72.9°W which put it about 150 miles (240 km) east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Maria was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bogue Inlet, North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.

Most of the showers and thunderstorms are occurring in the eastern half of the circulation of Tropical Storm Maria.  The strongest winds are also occurring in the eastern half of Maria.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 230 miles (370 km) east of the center of circulation and about 185 miles (295 km) to the west of the center.  A NOAA buoy (41025) at Diamond Shoals was reporting sustained winds to near tropical storm force.  The large size and slow movement of Tropical Storm Maria were causing large waves that were reaching the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

Tropical Storm Maria is moving around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Maria slowly toward the north on Wednesday.  An upper level trough approaching the eastern U.S. will start to steer Maria toward the east on Thursday.  The upper level trough will push Tropical Storm Maria away from the U.S. on Friday.  When Maria moves over cooler water it will make a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, small Hurricane Lee neared major hurricane intensity.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Lee was located at latitude 30.0°N and longitude 55.5°W which put it about 570 miles (920 km) east-southeast of Bermuda.  Lee was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 971 mb.

Hurricane Lee has a small, well organized circulation.  There is a small eye at the center of circulation.  The eye is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving close to the core of Hurricane Lee.  Winds to hurricane force only extend out about 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center.

Hurricane Lee could intensify into a major hurricane on Wednesday.  Lee will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  The upper level winds will be weak on Wednesday and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Wind shear will increase later in the week when the upper level trough approaching the eastern U.S. gets closer to Hurricane Lee.

Hurricane Maria Weakens As It Moves Over Jose’s Cold Wake

Hurricane Maria weakened on Sunday as it moved over an area of cooler water mixed to the surface by Hurricane Jose last week.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Maria was located at latitude 30.0°N and longitude 73.0°W which put it about 385 miles (625 km) south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Maria was moving toward the north at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (150 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 950 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Surf City, North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.

Hurricane Maria is moving over an area traversed by Hurricane Jose a week ago.  The winds of Jose mixed cooler water to the surface.  The region of cooler water is sometimes called the cold wake because it is left behind after a hurricane passes over a section of the ocean.  Observations from a NOAA research aircraft indicate that the Sea Surface Temperatures beneath Hurricane Maria are 24°C to 25°C.  There is not enough energy in the upper ocean to support a major hurricane and the circulation of Hurricane Maria has weakened during the past 24 hours.  The clouds around the eye and in the rainbands are not as tall.

Even though the upper level winds are not too strong and there is not much vertical wind shear, Hurricane Maria is unlikely to intensify.  Maria will continue to move over cooler water mixed to the surface by Jose.  Maria is likely to continue to weaken slowly during the next day or two.  Maria is a large hurricane and winds to tropical storm force extend out about 230 miles (370 km) from the center.

Maria is moving around the western end of subtropical high over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high is steering Maria toward the north and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Maria would be southeast of Cape Hatteras on Tuesday night.  When Maria gets closer to the Outer Banks of North Carolina, the hurricane will reach the westerly flow in middle latitudes.  Those westerly winds are forecast to steer Hurricane Maria toward the east later this week.

Because of the large size of Hurricane Maria’s circulation, winds to tropical storm force could be near the Outer Banks even if the center of Maria remains offshore.  Maria will also generate large waves and significant beach erosion could occur.

Hurricane Maria Pulls Away from the Turks and Caicos

Hurricane Maria pulled away slowly from the Turks and Caicos on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Maria was located at latitude 23.3°N and longitude 71.4°W which put it about 395 miles (635 km) east-southeast of Nassau, Bahamas.  Maria was moving toward the north-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Turks and Caicos, Southeastern Bahamas and Central Bahamas.

The structure of Hurricane Maria did not change much on Friday.  An eye continued to mark the center of circulation.  A nearly complete ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye.  The strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the core of Hurricane Maria.  There were more showers and thunderstorms in the northern half of the circulation.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 160 miles (260 km) from the center.

Hurricane Maria will move through an environment that is somewhat favorable for hurricanes.  Maria will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level trough over the southeastern U.S. is producing southwesterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are not producing strong vertical wind shear, but they could impede upper level divergence to the west of Hurricane Maria.  Hurricane Maria could maintain its intensity for another day or two unless the vertical shear increases. If the shear increases, then Maria will start to weaken.

Hurricane Maria has reached the western end of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high is steering Maria toward the north-northwest.  A general north-northwesterly motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track the core of Hurricane Maria will pass east of the Bahamas.

Hurricane Maria Strengthens to Cat. 5 Near Leeward Islands

Hurricane Maria quickly strengthened to a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Monday.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Maria was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 61.1°W which put it about 15 miles (25 km) east-southeast of Dominica.  Maria was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 925 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, Dominica, Guadeloupe, St. Kitts, Nevis, Martinique, Montserrat, the U.S. Virgin Islands and the British Virgin Islands.  Hurricane Watches were in effect for Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Anguilla, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy and the portion of the coast from Isla Saona to Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Anguilla, St. Lucia, Antigua, Barbuda, Saba, St. Eustatius and St. Maarten.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for St. Vincent, the Grenadines and the portion of the coast from Puerto Plata to the Haiti/Dominican Republic border.

Hurricane Maria has a tight compact circulation.  There is a small eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) at the center of circulation.  The eye is surround by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds are occurring in that ring of storms.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the core of Maria.  The overall circulation of Hurricane Maria is small.  Winds to hurricane force only extend out about 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extend out about 125 miles (200 km) from the center.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Maria is 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 9.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 44.1.

Hurricane Maria will continue to move through an environment very favorable for strong hurricanes.  Maria will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Maria could strengthen further.  Since the eye of Hurricane Maria is so small, it would be easy for a rainband to wrap around the eye.  If that happens, then an eyewall replacement cycle could begin and the cycle could result in a temporary weakening of the hurricane.

Hurricane Maria is being steered to the west-northwest by the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  That high is forecast to weaken and Maria is likely to move more toward the northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipate track the center of Hurricane Maria will pass very close to Dominica and Guadeloupe on Monday night.  Maria could pass near Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis on Tuesday.  It could be near the U.S. Virgin Islands on Tuesday night and Hurricane Maria will approach Puerto Rico on Wednesday.

Hurricane Maria is a small but very dangerous hurricane.  The winds in the core of Hurricane Maria are capable of causing extensive damage.  In addition, heavy rain falling over steep terrain will likely produce flash floods.  Hurricane Maria will affect some of the same islands that were severely damaged by Hurricane Irma.  Maria will significantly hamper efforts in some places to recover from the effects of Hurricane Irma.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Jose has begun the transition to an extratropical cyclone as it moves northward off the east coast of the U.S.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Jose was located at latitude 34.8°N and longitude 71.1°W which put it about 445 miles (720 km) south of Nantucket, Massachusetts.  Jose was moving toward the north at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Watch Hill, Rhode Island to Hull, Massachusetts including Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the portion of the coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson and from New Haven, Connecticut to Watch Hill, Rhode Island.

The structure of Hurricane Jose began to change on Monday from the more circular shape of a purely tropical hurricane to an asymmetrical shape seen more commonly in extratropical cyclones.  Drier air wrapped around the western and southern sides of the circulation.  Most of the strong thunderstorms and heavy rain were occurring in the northern half of Jose.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 60 miles (95 km) north of the center, but there were few if any winds to hurricane force south of the center.  The circulation of Hurricane Jose is much larger than the circulation of Hurricane Maria.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 320 miles (515 km) from the center of Jose.

The Hurricane Intensity Index for Hurricane Jose was 10.4.  The Hurricane Size Index for Jose was 15.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index was 26.0.

Hurricane Jose will move into an environment that is unfavorable for hurricanes on Tuesday.  Jose will stay over warm Sea Surface Temperatures until it moves north of the Gulf Stream.  Once Jose moves north of latitude 38°N, it will start to move over cooler water.  An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. is producing southerly winds which are causing moderate vertical wind shear over Jose.  Cooler water and moderate shear would normally cause a hurricane to weaken.  However, as Hurricane Jose makes the transition to an extratropical cyclone, it will start to be powered by the temperature difference between warm and cold air.  The transition to an extratropical cyclone can sometimes produce a stronger storm when it occurs.

Hurricane Jose is moving around the western end of the subtropical high.  Another surface high pressure system is forecast to move north of Jose when the hurricane approaches the northeastern U.S.  The second high will block the northward motion and it will force Hurricane Jose to move toward the east.  Some models are forecasting that Jose could make a clockwise loop southeast of Cape Cod.  Hurricane Jose could bring gusty winds and high waves to sections of the coast in the northeastern U.S. during the next few days.

Tropical Storm Maria Spins Up Quickly, Watches Issued for Leeward Islands

Tropical Storm Maria spun up quickly on Saturday and Watches were issued for the Northern Leeward Islands.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Maria was located at latitude 12.3°N and longitude 52.6°W which put it about 620 miles (1000 km) east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles.  Maria was moving toward the west at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis and Montserrat.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for St. Lucia, Martinique, Guadeloupe, Dominca, Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Maria organized quickly on Saturday.  A primary rainband wrapped most of the way around the center of circulation.  Thunderstorms in the core of the circulation generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  Numerous additional bands of showers and thunderstorms developed outside the core of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Maria will move through and environment that will be favorable for intensification.  Maria will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Maria could intensify rapidly during the next day or two.  Maria is likely to become a hurricane on Sunday.  Maria could strengthen into a major hurricane early next week.

The subtropical ridge over the Atlantic Ocean has been steering Tropical Storm Maria quickly toward the west.  The ridge is forecast to weaken slightly during the next several days and Tropical Storm Maria will move more toward the west-northwest.  Maria could reach the northern Leeward Islands within 48 hours.  Maria could be near Puerto Rico in about three days.  Maria will move over some of the same places that were seriously damaged by Hurricane Irma.  Maria could severely impact recovery efforts in that region.

Elsewhere over the tropical Atlantic Hurricane Jose moved slowly toward the north southeast of the U.S. and Tropical Storm Lee formed over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Jose was located at latitude 28.9°N and longitude 71.9°W which put it about 485 miles (780 km) south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Jose was moving toward the north at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (155 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Lee was located at latitude 12.6°N and longitude 34.2°W which put it about 720 miles (1160 km) west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Lee was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Hurricane Jose Turns Back Toward U.S.

Hurricane Jose completed the long slow clockwise loop it made this week over the Atlantic Ocean and it turned back toward the U.S.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Jose was located at latitude 27.1°N and longitude 70.3°W which put it about 640 miles (1025 km) southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Jose was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Hurricane Jose as the primary rainband wrapped around the eastern and northern portions of the developing eye.  The strongest winds were occurring in that rainband.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the eastern half of the circulation.  There were fewer showers and thunderstorms in the western half of the circulation.

Hurricane Jose is moving over the part of the Atlantic Ocean that the hurricane traversed several days ago.  So, Jose is moving over cooler water that it mixed to the surface when it moved over the area the first time.  Hurricane Jose will soon move northwest of its previous track and it will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Jose will strengthen during the weekend and it could intensify rapidly once the eye and eyewall are fully formed.

After a few days of weak steering currents the large subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean has started to steer Hurricane Jose toward the northwest.  A general northwesterly motion is forecast to continue for another 24 to 36 hours.  At that time Jose will reach the western end of the high and it will turn more toward the north.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Jose could be near the Outer Banks of North Carolina in two or three days.  It is still too early to know if the center of Hurricane Jose will move into the U.S.

Hurricane Jose Makes Loop East of the Bahamas

Hurricane Jose made a slow clockwise loop east of the Bahamas during the past several days.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Jose was located at latitude 25.2°N and longitude 66.0°W which put it about 935 miles (1510 km) east of Nassau, Bahamas.  Jose was moving toward the west at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (155 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Hurricane Jose was in an area of weaker winds between an upper level ridge to the west and an upper level trough to the east.  The weaker steering winds pushed Jose around a slow clockwise loop.  The ridge is forecast to move north of Jose on Thursday and it should steer the hurricane toward the west.  The ridge is forecast to move east of Jose on Friday and the hurricane is expected to start moving more toward the north.

Hurricane Jose has been moving through an environment that was somewhat unfavorable for intensification.  Jose was moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature was near 29°C.  However, the upper level ridge was producing northerly winds which were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Jose maintained its intensity despite the moderate shear, although there were fewer showers and thunderstorms in western half of the circulation.  The wind shear could decrease as the upper level ridge moves north of Jose and the hurricane could strengthen.

It is still too early to know if Hurricane Jose will have much of an impact on the U.S.  Most of the guidance from numerical models keeps Jose out over the Atlantic Ocean, but its actual track will depend on where and when the clockwise loop ends.