Tag Archives: Beryl

Beryl Reorganizes as a Subtropical Storm North of Bermuda

A low pressure system associated with former Tropical Storm Beryl reorganized north of Bermuda on Saturday and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Subtropical Storm Beryl.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Subtropical Storm Beryl was located at latitude 36.4°N and longitude 65.7°W which put it about 575 miles (930 km) south-southwest of Halifax, Nova Scotia.  Beryl was moving toward the northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

The remnants of former Tropical Storm Beryl moved slowly across the northern Caribbean Sea and then over the southeastern Bahamas to a position northwest of Bermuda.  A low pressure system formed at the surface.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms developed and began to revolve around the the low pressure system.  The low pressure system moved under the eastern side of an upper level trough.  The trough contains colder air in the upper levels and it was also producing southwesterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the surface low pressure system.  The southwesterly winds were generating moderate vertical wind shear and the strongest rainbands were occurring on the eastern side of the surface low.  Some drier air was moving around the western and southern part of the upper level trough, which may have contributed to the weaker bands on the western side of the circulation.  The presence of the upper level trough and the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms around the surface low prompted the National Hurricane Center to designate the system as a subtropical storm.

Subtropical Storm Beryl will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 26°C.  The upper level trough will continue to produce moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear and the drier air will inhibit intensification.  Subtropical Storm Beryl could intensify a little more during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over colder water later on Sunday and it will start to weaken when that occurs.

The upper level trough was steering Subtropical Storm Beryl toward the northeast and a general motion in that direction is forecast to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track Subtropical Storm Beryl will pass south of Nova Scotia on Sunday.  Beryl could be near Newfoundland by Tuesday.

Chris Strengthens to a Hurricane Southeast of Cape Hatteras

Former Tropical Storm Chris strengthened to a hurricane southeast of Cape Hatteras on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Chris was located at latitude 33.7°N and longitude 72.4°W which put it about 205 miles (330 km) east-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Chris was moving toward the northeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Hurricane Chris strengthened on Tuesday when it moved northeast of cooler water Chris had mixed to the surface while it was meandering off the coast of the Carolinas.  An eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) formed at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in the eastern side of that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Chris.  The strongest rainbands were in the eastern half of the circulation.  Drier air near the western half of the circulation was contributing to the weaker bands in that part of the hurricane.  Storms in the core of the circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the north and east of the hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 95 miles (155 km) from the center.

Hurricane Chris will move through an environment favorable for intensification on Wednesday.  Chris will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  An upper level trough over the northeastern U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of the hurricane.  The winds speeds are similar at most levels and they will not generate a lot of vertical wind shear during the next 24 hours.  Hurricane Chris will strengthen on Wednesday and it could intensify rapidly.  Chris will move over cooler water when it gets north of the Gulf Stream and it will start to weaken when that occurs.

The trough over the northeastern U.S. will steer Hurricane Chris toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track Chris will move away from the coast of North Carolina.  Chris could be south of Nova Scotia in about 36 hours and it could be near Newfoundland in several days.

Elsewhere, the remnants of former Tropical Storm Beryl crossed Hispaniola and they were moving toward the southeastern Bahamas.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Former Tropical Storm Chris was located at latitude 20.1°N and longitude 72.6°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km) northeast of Port de Paix, Haiti.  It was moving toward the northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1013 mb.  A reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Wednesday if there are signs that it could be reorganizing into a tropical cyclone.

Tropical Storm Chris Develops South of Cape Hatteras, Beryl Nears Lesser Antilles

Tropical Storm Chris developed south of Cape Hatteras on Sunday morning, while Tropical Storm Beryl neared the Lesser Antilles.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Chris was located at latitude 32.9°N and longitude 75.0°W which put it about 160 miles (260 km) south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Chris was nearly stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Thunderstorms developed closer to the center of circulation on Sunday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated former Tropical Depression Three as Tropical Storm Chris.  The circulation of Chris was organizing quickly.  A band of showers and thunderstorms was wrapping around the center of circulation.  Several other rainbands were revolving around the core of the tropical storm.  The bands northwest of the center were weaker because there was drier air in that part of Chris.  The storms near the center of circulation were beginning to generate upper level divergence.

Tropical Storm Chris will remain in an environment favorable for intensification for the next two or three days.  The water in the upper portion of the Atlantic Ocean east of the Carolinas is warmer than normal.  Tropical Storm Chris will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  Chris will be southeast of an upper level trough over the northeastern quarter of the U.S. and it will be under a small upper level ridge.  The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Chris will continue to intensify and it could strengthen to a hurricane in the next day or two.

Since Tropical Storm Chris is under the small upper level ridge, the steering winds are weak.  Chris may not move much during the next 24 to 48 hours.  Tropical Storm Chris is forecast to linger of the coast of the Carolinas for several days.  Eventually an upper level trough will approach from the west and start to push Chris toward the northeast.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Beryl was nearing the Lesser Antilles on Sunday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located at latitude 14.4°N and longitude 57.9°W which put it about 210 miles (335 km) east of Martinique.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Dominica and Guadeloupe.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, St. Martin, Martinique, St. Lucia, and St. Barthelemy.

Thunderstorms continued to develop near the center of Tropical Storm Beryl on Sunday morning and the weakening trend halted at least temporarily.  Beryl remained a small tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  There were several bands of showers and thunderstorms in the eastern half of Tropical Storm Beryl.  The bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and low clouds.

Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast to into a region where the easterly winds in the lower levels are stronger.  That would increase the vertical wind shear and make it difficult for the circulation to stay vertically coherent.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  So, there will be enough energy in the upper ocean to support a tropical storm if the wind shear is not too strong.  Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast to weaken when it moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea, but that will depend on how strong the vertical shear gets.

Tropical Storm Beryl is moving south of the subtropical high over the Atlantic Ocean which is steering Beryl toward the west-northwest.  A general motion toward the west-northwest is forecast to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Beryl will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to St. Lucia, Martinique, Dominica and Guadeloupe during the next few hours,

Tropical Storm Beryl Weakens East of the Lesser Antilles

Tropical Storm Beryl weakened on Saturday as it move closer to the Lesser Antilles.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of circulation was located at latitude 13.1°N and longitude 54.3°W which put it about 495 miles (795 km) east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Dominica and Guadeloupe.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Martinique, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, Barbados and St. Lucia.

Tropical Storm Beryl moved into a region where the easterly winds in the lower level were stronger and the increased vertical wind shear started to blow the lower part of the circulation to the west of the upper part of Beryl.  It also seemed to move into an area of drier air, which caused most of the stronger thunderstorms to weaken.  There was still a well organized circulation in the lower levels, but it weakened on Saturday.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation and on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Beryl in recent hours.  If those storms persist then Beryl could strengthen again, but if they dissipate quickly, then the tropical storm could weaken again on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Beryl will move through an environment that contains factors that are favorable for intensification and other factors that are unfavorable.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It will move through an area where the lower level winds are stronger and so there will be more vertical wind shear.  There will be areas of moister air within a larger area of drier air.  If the recently developed thunderstorms persist on Sunday, then the Beryl could strengthen again.  However, if the storms dissipate in a few hours, then Tropical Storm Beryl could weaken further.  The small size of the circulation means that rapid changes in intensity can occur.

Tropical Storm Beryl was moving south of the subtropical high over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high was steering Beryl toward the west-northwest and that general motion is forecast to continue for the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Beryl could reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday night.  There is a lot of uncertainty about how strong Beryl may be when it reaches those islands.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean Tropical Depression Three spun south of Cape Hatteras.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Three was located at latitude 32.9°N and longitude 75.1°W which put it about 160 miles (260 km) south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  It was nearly stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1014 mb.

Beryl Strengthens to a Hurricane East of the Lesser Antilles

Former Tropical Storm Beryl strengthened into a hurricane east of the Lesser Antilles on Friday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 10.7°N and longitude 46.5°W which put it about 1045 miles (1685 km) east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles.  Beryl was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (155 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

The circulation of Hurricane Beryl remains very small.  There is an eye with a diameter of 6 miles (9 km) at the center of circulation.  The eye is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the hurricane force winds are occurring in this ring of storms.  Several short, narrow bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the core of the circulation.  Storms near the core are generating upper level divergence which is pumping mass away from the hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force only extend out about 10 miles (15 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extend out about 40 miles (65 km) from the center.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 48 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It is moving south of an upper level ridge.  The ridge is producing easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  However, the wind speeds are similar at all levels and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Beryl is likely to intensify during the next day or so.  There is less mass in motion in a very small hurricane and so it can intensify quickly, but a small hurricane can also weaken quickly if vertical wind shear increases.

Hurricane Beryl is moving south of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean and the high is steering Beryl toward the west.  A general motion toward the west-northwest is forecast for the next several days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Beryl could approach the Lesser Antilles later on Sunday.  Beryl could be a hurricane when it nears the Lesser Antilles and watches and warnings may be issued later on Friday or on Saturday.

TD 2 Quickly Strengthens Into Tropical Storm Beryl

Tropical Depression 2 which was designated earlier on Thursday quickly strengthened into Tropical Storm Beryl.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located at latitude 10.3°N and longitude 42.8°W which put it about 1295 miles (2080 km) east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles.  Beryl was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

The circulation of very small Tropical Storm Beryl organized very quickly on Thursday afternoon.  There was evidence of a tiny eye on some microwave satellite images.  A small tight ring of thunderstorms surrounded the center of circulation and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several short bands of thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Storms near the core of Beryl were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Beryl will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next day or two.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 26.5°C.  There is cooler water north of the expected track of Beryl, which would limit intensification if the tropical storm wobbles toward the north.  An upper level ridge north of Tropical Storm Beryl will generate easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  The wind speed is similar at all level and the vertical wind shear will be modest.  Small tropical cyclones can intensify or weaken rapidly.  Beryl is likely strengthen on Friday and it could intensify into a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Beryl was moving south of the subtropical high over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high was steering Beryl toward the west.  A general motion toward the west-northwest is forecast during the next two to three days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Beryl could be east of the Lesser Antilles on Sunday.