Tropical Cyclone Uesi weakened east of Australia on Wednesday. At 1:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Uesi was located at latitude 25.9°S and longitude 161.7°E which put it about 500 miles (805 km) east-northeast of Brisbane, Australia. Uesi was moving toward the south-southwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.
Tropical Cyclone Uesi weakened steadily on Wednesday as it moved into a more unfavorable environment. An upper level low over eastern Australia and an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean interacted to produce strong northerly winds which blew across the top of Uesi. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear and they pushed the upper part of the circulation to the south of the lower level circulation. Thunderstorms were only occurring in bands south of the center of Tropical Cyclone Uesi. Bands in other parts of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.
Tropical Cyclone Uesi will continue to weaken as it moves into an even more unfavorable environment. The upper low over eastern Australia and the upper ridge over the South Pacific will steer Uesi toward the south. Tropical Cyclone Uesi will move over colder water. The trough and the ridge will also continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The combined effects of colder water and strong wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Uesi to weaken during the next several days.
Former Tropical Storm Wutip intensified into a typhoon southeast of Guam on Wednesday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Wutip was located at latitude 6.5°N and longitude 150.0°E which put it about 640 miles (1035 km) southeast of Guam. Wutip was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.
Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan. A Typhoon Warning is in effect for Satawal and Puluwat. A Tropical Storm Warning and a Typhoon Watch are in effect for Ulul and Faraulep.
Typhoon Wutip continued to exhibit better organization on Wednesday. A cluster of thunderstorms remained near the center of circulation. A band of storms wrapped around the southern side of the center, which could indicate the start of the formation of an eyewall. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Wutip. Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon. Winds to typhoon force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 160 miles (260 km) from the center.
Typhoon Wutip will move through an environment favorable for intensification for several more days. Wutip will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C. Typhoon Wutip will move around the western end of an upper level ridge. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation. Those winds will create some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be great enough to prevent intensification. Typhoon Wutip will continue to intensify and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane within 36 hours.
The ridge will steer Typhoon Wutip in a northwesterly direction during the next 48 hours. Wutip is likely to turn more toward the north-northwest when it approaches the western end of the ridge. On its anticipated track Typhoon Wutip could be south of Guam in 36 to 48 hours. Wutip could be the equivalent of a major hurricane at that time.
Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Oma continued to spin over the Coral Sea between New Caledonia and Australia. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Oma was located at latitude 22.7°S and longitude159.8°E which put it about 560 miles (905 km) northeast of Brisbane, Australia. Oma was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.
Tropical Cyclone 13P developed over the Coral Sea northwest of New Caledonia on Monday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone 13P was located at latitude 17.2°S and longitude 159.7°E which put it about 550 miles (885 km) northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia. It was moving toward the south at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.
A distinct low level center of circulation developed within an area of showers and thunderstorms over the Coral Sea on Monday. The strongest rainband extended from northeast of the center, south of the the center and then west of the center. Additional rainbands were forming in other part of the circulation. Storms near the center of circulation were beginning to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the south of the tropical cyclone.
Tropical Cyclone 13P will move through an environment favorable for intensification on Tuesday. It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. An upper level trough near the east coast of Australia is producing northerly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation. The core of Tropical Cyclone 13P is east of the strongest upper level winds, but the winds are causing moderate vertical wind shear. Despite the vertical shear, the tropical cyclone is forecast to intensify during the next 24 hours.
Tropical Cyclone 13P is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering it toward the south. There is some variability in the guidance from the numerical models about the future strength of the ridge. Some models do not strengthen the ridge much and those model predict that Tropical Cyclone 13P will move almost straight southward. Other models increase the strength of the ridge and steer the tropical cyclone more toward the south-southwest. A general motion toward the south or south-southwest seems most likely during the next 24 to 36 hours. On its anticipated track the core of Tropical Cyclone 13P would pass west of New Caledonia, but it could move closer to the east coast of Australia.