Tag Archives: Cabo San Lucas

TD 4E Strengthens to Tropical Storm Carlotta

Tropical Depression Four-E strengthened to Tropical Storm Carlotta south of Mexico on Friday afternoon.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 99.4°W which put it about 60 miles (95 km) south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico.  Carlotta was moving toward the northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Tecpan de Galeana to Lagunas de Chacahua, Mexico.

A single, distinct center of circulation developed in Tropical Depression Four-E on Friday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Carlotta.  It is possible that the mountains in Mexico deflected the circulation in the lower levels and contributed to the improved organization of Tropical Storm Carlotta.  Stronger thunderstorms were forming near the center of circulation.  A primary band of showers and thunderstorms developed east and south of the core of Carlotta.  Other rainbands were revolving around the core of the tropical storm.  Storms in the core were generating upper level divergence and Carlotta looked like a tropical storm on satellite images.

Tropical Storm Carlotta will remain in an environment favorable for intensification while the center is over water.  The Sea Surface Temperature of the water south of Mexico is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak in that area and there is little vertical wind shear.  Carlotta could strengthen further during the next 12 hours.  When the center nears the coast of Mexico, the circulation could begin to pull in drier air from over the land.  If that happens, then Tropical Storm Carlotta could start to weaken even before the center officially makes landfall.

The steering winds are weak around Tropical Storm Carlotta.  A trough in the lower levels is moving across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and it appears to be pulling Carlotta slowly toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta will reach the coast of Mexico in 12 to 18 hours.  Tropical Storm Carlotta is expected to make landfall east of Acapulco.  Carlotta will produce some gusty winds but the greater risks are heavy rain and flash floods.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Bud is moving over the Gulf of California.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Bud was located at latitude 25.3°N and longitude 110.0°W which put it about 70 miles (110 km) west of Los Mochis, Mexico.  Bud was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.  Bud could drop heavy rain and cause flash floods in the states of Sinaloa, Sonora and Chihuahua.

Tropical Storm Bud Brings Wind & Rain to Baja California, New Depression Forms South of Acapulco

Tropical Storm Bud brought wind and rain to the southern part of Baja Calfornia on Tuesday while a new tropical depression formed south of Acapulco, Mexico.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located at latitude 22.2°N and longitude 109.8°W which put it about 50 miles (80 km) south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Bud was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning remained in effect for the portion of the coast from Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico including Cabo San Lucas.  The government of Mexico issued new Tropical Storm Watches for the portions of the coast from La Paz to San Evaristo and from Altata to Huatabampito, Mexico.

Rainbands on the northern side of the circulation of Tropical Storm Bud were producing winds to tropical storm force over the southern end of Baja California.  New thunderstorms began to form when a band north and east of the center of circulation moved over the southern part of the Gulf of California.  The Sea Surface Temperature of the water in the Gulf is near 27°C which is warmer than the water of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California.  The additional energy from the ocean may have contributed to the formation of the new storms.

A trough in the upper levels is forecast to steer Tropical Storm Bud toward the north-northeast during the next several days,  Bud could maintain its intensity for another 24 hours if the center of circulation passes southeast of Baja California.  If the center passes over Baja, the mountains would disrupt the circulation in the lower levels and Tropical Storm Bud would weaken.  In either case Tropical Storm Bud will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the southern end of Baja California for another day or so.  Bud will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the west coast of Mexico later on Friday.  Heavy rain could cause flash flooding in some locations.

Tropical Depression Four-E formed south of Acapulco on Thursday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 100.1°W which put it about 100 miles (155 km) south of Acapulco, Mexico.  It was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.  Because of the proximity to the coast the government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the portion of the coast from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta Maldonado.

A center of circulation developed in a cluster of thunderstorms south of Mexico and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Four-E.  The circulation was still organizing.  Several fragmented bands of showers and thunderstorms formed in the outer portions of the circulation.  The center of circulation was broad and there were several smaller cyclonic rotations swirling around inside the broader center.

Tropical Depression Four-E will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The proximity to the coast will be the primary factor inhibiting intensification.  The circulation could pull in drier air from Mexico.  Tropical Depression Four-E is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm on Friday.

Tropical Depression Four-E will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge, but the steering currents are likely to be weak.  The depression is expected to move slowly toward the north-northwest during the next day or two.  On its anticipated track the center of the depression could move near the coast during the weekend.  It could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain.  The rain could cause flash floods.

Hurricane Bud Weakens, Watch Issued for Baja California

Hurricane Bud weakened significantly on Tuesday, but it prompted the issuance of a Tropical Storm Watch for the southern portion of Baja California.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Bud was located at latitude 18.7°N and longitude 108.6°W which put it about 300 miles (485 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Bud was moving toward the north-northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (150 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.  The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the portion of the coast from Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico including Cabo San Lucas.

Hurricane Bud weakened to a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Tuesday.  The center of Hurricane Bud was over water where the Sea Surface Temperature was near 27°C, but much of the northern half of the circulation was over cooler water.  The slow movement of Bud may have also allowed the winds to mix cooler water to the surface.  Thunderstorms were not as tall and the bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and low clouds.  The stronger thunderstorms were occurring mainly south and east of the center of Hurricane Bud.

Hurricane Bud is forecast to spin down slowly during the next several days.  Cooler water at the surface of the ocean is not likely to supply sufficient energy to maintain the circulation.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear, but the lack of shear will be less important than effects of the cooler water.  The lack of stronger thunderstorms in the northern half of the circulation will limit the downdrafts that could transport stronger winds to the surface.  Hurricane Bud could weaken to a tropical storm on Wednesday if new thunderstorms do not form in the core of the circulation.

A ridge in the middle troposphere over the southwestern U.S. almost blocked the forward motion of Hurricane Bud on Tuesday.  Bud moved slowly toward the north-northwest.  A slow motion toward the north-northwest is forecast to continue for another 24 to 36 hours.  After that time a trough over the Pacific Ocean is forecast to push the ridge eastward.  When the trough approaches, stronger southerly winds will steer Bud northward more quickly.  On its anticipated track Bud is forecast to approach the southern tip of Baja California in 36 to 48 hours.

Hurricane Bud is likely to be a tropical storm when it nears Baja California.  Bud will bring gusty winds, but the bigger risk will be locally heavy rain.  Heavy rain falling on steep terrain could cause flash floods.  Bud or its remnants could also bring rain to parts of the southwestern U.S.

Bud Rapidly Intensifies Into a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Bud rapidly intensified Monday into a major hurricane southwest of Mexico.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Bud was located at latitude 16.7°N and longitude 106.8°W which put it about 265 miles (425 km) south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  Bud was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.  A Tropical Storm Watch remained in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

The circulation around Hurricane Bud is very well organized.  A circular eye exists at the center of circulation.  The eye is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds are occurring in the ring of storms.  A number of bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the core of the circulation.  The overall circulation is quite symmetrical and there are rainbands in all quadrants of Hurricane Bud.  Storms near the core are generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping mass away from the hurricane in all directions.

Hurricane Bud exhibits all of the characteristics of a well organized hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extend out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 140 miles (225 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Bud is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 12.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 34.5.

Hurricane Bud will move through an environment favorable for a major hurricane for another 12 to 24 hours.  Bud is currently over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C, but the Sea Surface Temperature of the water ahead of the hurricane is cooler.  Hurricane Bud will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Bud could intensify during the next 12 to 24 hours, because of little shear.  However, Bud is likely to weaken after that, when it moves over cooler water.

Hurricane Bud is moving near the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering the hurricane toward the northwest.  That general motion is expected to continue for another day or so.  Bud is forecast to turn more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track the core of Hurricane Bud is expected to remain west of the west coast of Mexico.  Bud could approach the southern part of Baja California in about four days.

Elsewhere, former Tropical Storm Aletta weakened to a tropical depression.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Aletta was located at latitude 16.8°N and longitude 117.8°W which put it about 665 miles (1070 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Aletta was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Bud Quickly Strengthens to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Bud quickly strengthened into a hurricane on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Bud was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 104.2°W which put it about 365 miles (590 km) south-southeast of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  Bud was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.  The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes.

Hurricane Bud strengthened quickly and the circulation exhibited the structure of a hurricane.  An eye formed at the center of circulation, although the eye was obscured intermittently by clouds.  A nearly complete ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in the ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the core of Hurricane Bud.  Most of the stronger rainbands were occurring in the eastern half of the circulation.  Winds near the core of Bud were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass allowed the pressure to decrease rapidly, which generated a stronger pressure gradient force and higher wind speeds.

Most of the stronger winds were occurring on the eastern side of Hurricane Bud.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 25 miles (40 km) to the east of the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 150 miles (240 km) to the east of the center.  The large area of tropical storm force winds on the eastern side of Hurricane Bud is the reason the government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the west coast of Mexico.

Hurricane Bud will continue to move through a very favorable environment for several more days.  Bud will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  Bud will move through a region where the upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Bud will strengthen more and it could intensify rapidly during the next day or two.  Bud could strengthen into a major hurricane on Monday or Tuesday.

Hurricane Bud is moving near the western end of a ridge over Mexico.  The ridge is steering Bud toward the northwest  and that motion is forecast to continue for another day or two.  Hurricane Bud is likely to move more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Bud will remain west of the west coast of Mexico.  Bud could approach the southern end of Baja California in four days.

Even though the center of Hurricane Bud is likely to remain west of the west coast of Mexico, some of the outer rainbands could move over parts of western Mexico.  Bud could bring gusty winds to places near the coast.  In addition Hurricane Bud could drop locally heavy rain in those areas and flash flooding will be possible.  Bud is likely to weaken before it reaches Baja California, but it could also bring gusty winds and heavy rains to that region later this week.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Aletta continued to weaken over cooler water.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Aletta was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 115.7°W which put it about 575 miles (925 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Aletta was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Max Rapidly Intensifies Into a Hurricane Near Acapulco

Tropical Storm Max intensified rapidly into a hurricane on Thursday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Max was located at latitude 16.3°N and longitude 99.9°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km/h) south of Acapulco, Mexico.  Max was moving toward the east at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (155 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Zihuatenajo to Punta Maldonado, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Maldonado to Laguas de Chacahua, Mexico.

The circulation of Hurriane Max is quite small.  Winds to hurricane force only extend out about 15 miles (25 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center.  Although the circulation of Hurricane Max is small, it is very well organized.  There is a small circular eye at the center of circulation.  The eye is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds are occurring in that ring of storms.

The center of Hurricane Max is very close to the coast of Mexico.  The outer fringes of the northwestern part of the circulation could already be pulling in some drier air.  Max will make landfall on the coast of Mexico within a few hours and it will start to dissipate as soon as the center make landfall.

The core of Hurricane Max will be capable of causing localized wind damage.  Max will also drop very heavy rain over parts of the states or Guerrero and Oaxaca and flash floods could occur in some areas of steeper terrain.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Norma formed to the west of Hurricane Max.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Norma was located at latitude 17.2°N and longitude 109.5°W which put it about 395 miles (635 km) south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Norma was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.  Tropical Storm Norma is forecast to strengthen and move toward Baja California.  Normal could be a hurricane when it approaches southern Baja California in a few days.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Prompts Hurricane Watch for Baja California

The National Hurricane Center is forecasting that a weather system currently designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E will become a tropical storm and affect Baja California.  The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning for the portion of the coast from Todos Santo to Los Barriles including Cabo San Lucas.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E was located at latitude 17.2°N and longitude 107.2°W which put it about 430 miles (695 km) south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California.  It was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

The circulation of Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E is in the early stages of organization.  There is a large counterclockwise circulation over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Mexico.  Numerous showers and thunderstorms are forming within the circulation, but there is no well defined center of circulation.  There are fewer showers and thunderstorms in the eastern portion of the circulation.  An upper level ridge centered over Mexico is generating brisk easterly winds which are blowing over the top of the circulation.  Those winds are causing moderate vertical wind shear and the system has not yet begun to generate much upper level divergence.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  So, there is plenty of energy in the upper ocean to support intensification.  The strength of the upper level winds is forecast to diminish and the wind shear is likely to decrease.  If the wind shear decreases, then the environment will become more favorable for intensification.  Intensification is likely to be slow while the circulation becomes more organized and develops a distinct low level center.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E could become a tropical storm on Wednesday.  It has a chance to intensify to a hurricane on Thursday.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge is steering the system toward the northwest and a general northwesterly motion is expected to continue for another day or two.  On its anticipated track the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E could approach the southern part of Baja California by late on Thursday.  It could be a strong tropical storm or a hurricane at that time.  Locally heavy rain falling on the steep terrain of Baja California always creates a risk for flash floods.