Tag Archives: Cabo Verde Islands

Tropical Storms Paulette and Rene Spin over the Atlantic

Tropical Storms Paulette and Rene continued to spin over the Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located at latitude 20.5°N and longitude 47.4°W which put it about 1035 miles (1665 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Paulette was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Storm Paulette was asymmetrical due to wind shear being cause by an upper level ridge over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  Paulette was under the western end of the ridge where there were strong winds blowing from the south.  Those winds were blowing toward the top of Tropical Storm Paulette and they were causing strong vertical wind shear.  As a result of the shear, the strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands northeast of the center of Paulette.  Bands in other parts of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles to the north of the center of circulation.  Winds in the southern half of Paulette were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Paulette will move through an environment that is mostly unfavorable for intensification during the next day or two.  Paulette will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27.5°C.  However, the upper level ridge will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Paulette is likely to weaken during the next 24 hours.  Paulette could move into an area where the upper level winds are not as strong during the weekend.  It could start to strengthen at that time.

Tropical Storm Paulette will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Paulette toward the west-northwest during the next 36 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Paulette could be northeast of the Leeward Islands on Saturday.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Rene was located at latitude 18.0°N and longitude 32.7°W which put it about 590 miles (950 km) west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Rene was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Storm Rene was moving under the southern part of the same upper level ridge that was affecting Tropical Storm Paulette.  Easterly winds were blowing toward the top of Rene’s circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  As a result of the shear, the strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Tropical Storm Rene.  Bands in the eastern half of Rene consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) on the northwestern side of Tropical Storm Rene.  The winds in the other parts of Rene were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Rene will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next day or two.  Rene will move over water where Sea Surface Temperature is near 26°C.  The upper level ridge will continue to cause vertical wind shear, but the shear could decrease enough at times to allow Tropical Storm Rene to strengthen.

Tropical Storm Rene will also move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic.  The high will steer Rene toward the west-northwest during the next 36 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Rene will move farther away from the Cabo Verde Islands.

Tropical Storms Paulette and Rene Form over the Atlantic

Tropical Storms Paulette and Rene formed over the Atlantic Ocean on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located at latitude 17.5°N and longitude 42.4°W which put it about 1360 miles (2190 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Paulette was moving toward the northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Rene was located at latitude 16.1°N and longitude 22.3°W which put it about 115 miles (185 km) east of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Rene was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Cabo Verde Islands.

Tropical Storm Paulette formed first when former Tropical Depression Seventeen strengthened on Sunday morning.  The circulation around Paulette exhibited more organization on Sunday afternoon.  More thunderstorms developed in bands in the northern half of the circulation and the strongest winds were occurring in those bands,  Bands in the southern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms on the northern side of the center began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) to the northeast of the center of Paulette.  Winds in the other parts of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Paulette will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Paulette will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27.5°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Paulette.  Those winds will cause vertical wind shear.  They are probably the cause of the asymmetric distribution of thunderstorms and they will slow the rate of intensification.  Tropical Storm Paulette will get stronger during the next day or two.

Tropical Storm Paulette will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Paulette toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Paulette could be northeast of the Leeward Islands in a few days.

The circulation within a tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic Ocean strengthened on Sunday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Rene.  A distinct center of circulation formed in Rene.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Rene.  The strongest thunderstorms were in bands in the western half of the circulation, but more thunderstorms were starting to develop in bands east of the center.  Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the north of the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storms force extended out 45 miles to the north of the center of Tropical Storm Rene.  The wind in the southern half of the circulation was blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Rene will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Rene will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It will move under the axis of the upper level ridge over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.  The upper level winds are weaker near the axis of the ridge and there will be less vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Rene is likely to intensify and it could strengthen into a hurricane later this week.

Tropical Storm Rene will also move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Rene toward the west-northwest during the next two to three days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Rene will move across the Cabo Verde Islands during the next 24 ours.  Rene will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain.

Tropical Depression Fifteen Forms Southeast of Cabo Verde Islands

Tropical Depression Fifteen formed southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen was located at latitude 13.2°N and longitude 20.2°W which put it about 320 miles (515 km) southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.  The depression was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A large, well developed low pressure system embedded in the northern end of a tropical wave moved over the Atlantic Ocean west of North Africa on Monday.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms began to strengthen when the low moved over water and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Fifteen.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of the depression.  Storms closer to the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from Tropical Depression Fifteen.  The circulation around the depression was quite large.  The diameter of the low level circulation was about 500 miles (800 km).

Tropical Depression Fifteen will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 48 hours.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge centered over North Africa.  The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear during the next day or two.  Tropical Depression Fifteen is likely to strengthen into Tropical Storm Nestor.

The ridge over North Africa will steer Tropical Depression Fifteen toward the northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the center of the depression could reach the Cabo Verde Islands within 24 hours.  Since the depression is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm watches and/or warnings could be issued.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Melissa completed a transition to an extratropical cyclone on Monday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located at latitude 41.0°N and longitude 51.4°W which put it about 405 miles (650 km) south-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland.  Melissa was moving toward the east at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Lorenzo Rapidly Strengthens Into a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Lorenzo rapidly strengthened into a major hurricane west of the Cabo Verde Islands on Thursday.  At 6:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located at latitude 15.2°N and longitude 39.3°W which put it about 995 miles (1600 km) west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Lorenzo was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

Lorenzo was a large well organized a hurricane.  There was a circular eye at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Lorenzo.  Storms around the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 210 miles (335 km) from the center.

Hurricane Lorenzo will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next day or so.  Lorenzo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Lorenzo is likely to strengthen to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale during the next 24 hours.  Lorenzo will move over cooler water during the weekend, which will cause the hurricane to weaken.

Hurricane Lorenzo will move around the western end of a ridge of high pressure over North Africa and the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  The ridge will steer Lorenzo toward the north during the weekend.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Lorenzo could approach the Azores next week.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean Tropical Storm Karen moved farther away from Puerto Rico.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT in Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located at latitude 25.5°N and longitude 63.5°W which put it about 520 miles (835 km) north-northeast of San Juan Puerto Rico.  Karen was moving toward the north-northeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Storm Karen Drops Heavy Rain on Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands

Tropical Storm Karen dropped heavy rain on parts of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located at latitude 17.5°N and longitude 66.0°W which put it about 65 miles (105 km) south of San Juan Puerto Rico.  Karen was moving toward the north at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Puerto Rico including Vieques and Culebra, the U.S. Virgin Islands and the British Virgin Islands.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Karen exhibited more organization on Tuesday afternoon.  A new low level center of circulation formed a little farther to the west near a cluster of stronger thunderstorms.  The minimum surface pressure decreased by several millibars.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of circulation and in bands revolving around the center.  Storms near the newly reformed center of circulation were generating more upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass was what allowed the surface pressure to decrease.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Karen will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 48 hours.  Karen will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  Karen has moved under the middle of an upper level ridge over the eastern Caribbean Sea where the upper level winds are weaker.  There will be less vertical wind shear during the next day or two.  The environment around Tropical Storm Karen will support intensification.  However, the center of Karen will pass over Puerto Rico during the next 24 hours.  The mountains in Puerto Rico will disrupt the circulation in the lower levels and Tropical Storm Karen will weaken when it passes over those mountains.  Karen will likely strengthen again when it moves north of Puerto Rico.

Tropical Storm Karen will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Karen toward the north during the next day or two.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Karen will move across Puerto Rico during the next 24 hours.  Karen will drop heavy rain on parts of Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and the British Virgin Islands.  Prolonged heavy rain will create a high risk for flash floods in those areas.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Jerry was moving slowly toward Bermuda and Tropical Storm Lorenzo was strengthening west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located at latitude 30.9°N and longitude 69.1°W which put it about 270 miles (435 km) west-southwest of Bermuda.  Jerry was moving toward the north-northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was located at latitude 12.4°N and longitude 29.3°W which put it about 270 miles (435 km) west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Lorenzo was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb

Tropical Storm Florence Reorganizes Southeast of Bermuda

Tropical Storm Florence reorganized southeast of Bermuda on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located at latitude 24.6°N and longitude 55.2°W which put it about 790 miles (1270 km) southeast of Bermuda.  Florence was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Vertical wind shear decreased around Tropical Storm Florence and the circulation showed evidence of better organization.  Stronger thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation and a primary rainband wrapped about three quarters of the way around the center.  An eye appeared to be forming.  Thunderstorms near the center generated more upper level divergence which pumped away mass and the surface pressure decreased on Saturday.  More thunderstorms also developed in other rainbands that were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Tropical Storm Florence appeared to be on the threshold of regaining hurricane intensity.

Tropical Storm Florence will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification during the next two or three days.  Florence will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move into a region where the upper level winds are weaker and there will be less vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Florence will intensify back into a hurricane on Sunday.  It could intensify rapidly once a eye and complete eyewall form.  Florence is likely to become a major hurricane by early next week.

Tropical Storm Florence will move near the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Florence in a general west-northwesterly direction during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Florence could approach the southeast coast of the U.S. by Thursday.  It is likely to be a major hurricane at that time.  The steering currents could weaken when Florence approaches the U.S. and it is too early to make a precise forecast of landfall.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storms Helene and Isaac strengthened over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located at latitude 13.2°N and longitude 22.8°W which put it about 155 miles (250 km) southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Helene was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Santiago, Fogo and Brava.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was located at latitude 14.4°N and longitude 37.5°W which put it about 1580 miles (2540 km) east of the Windward Islands.  Isaac was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Causes Tropical Storm Watch for U.S. Gulf Coast

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven caused the National Hurricane Center to issue a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the U.S. Gulf Coast on Sunday afternoon.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Alabama-Florida border to Morgan City, Louisiana including Lake Pontchartrain.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven was located at latitude 22.7°N and longitude 77.3°W which put it about 275 miles (445 km) east-southeast of Marathon, Florida.  It was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1012 mb.

Bands of showers and thunderstorms began to form in a tropical wave over the Bahamas and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven in order to be able to issue the Tropical Storm Watch for the north coast of the Gulf of Mexico.  The circulation of Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven was still organizing.  A distinct low level center of circulation had not formed.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing and the bands were starting to revolve around the inner part of the weather system.  Thunderstorms were beginning to generate some upper level divergence.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven will be moving into an environment favorable for intensification.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge is forecast to develop over Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven.  If that occurs, then the upper level winds would be weak and there would be little vertical wind shear.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven is forecast to intensify into Tropical Storm Gordon.  If the system moves slowly enough, there is a chance it could strengthen into a hurricane before it reaches the Gulf Coast.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven in a general west-northwesterly direction.  On its anticipated track the system will move over the Florida Keys on Monday.  It will be over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and the system could reach the northern Gulf Coast late on Tuesday or early on Wednesday.

Elsewhere over the tropical Atlantic, Tropical Storm Florence was moving quickly away from the Cabo Verde Islands.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 34.6°W which put it about 700 miles (1125 km) west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Florence was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

NHC Monitoring Two Areas for Tropical Development

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) was monitoring two areas for possible tropical development on Thursday afternoon.  A strong tropical wave was moving through the southeastern Caribbean Sea and the wave was designated as Invest 90L.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Invest 90L was located at latitude 12.2°N and longitude 65.8°W which put it about 160 miles (260 km) east of Bonaire.  The tropical wave was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55km/h) and there were gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1011 mb.

Another tropical wave moved off the coast of West Africa on Thursday and NHC designated that wave as Invest 99L.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Invest 99L was located at latitude 10.2°N and longitude 20.9°W which put it about 370 miles (595 km) south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.  The tropical wave was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

The tropical wave over the southeastern Caribbean Sea will have the most immediate impact to land.  The wave could bring gusty winds to Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao within 24 hours.  The circulation of Invest 90L is elongated in an east-west direction and that is probably because of strong easterly winds blowing in the lower atmosphere.  There are some indications of a counterclockwise rotation on loops of visible satellite imagery, but it is not clear if the rotation extends all the way down to the surface.  The tropical wave is generating winds to near tropical storm force in the northern portion of the wave.  There are numerous thunderstorms developing along the axis of the wave.

Invest 90L is moving under the western end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge is producing southerly winds which are blowing over the top of the tropical wave and those winds are contributing to moderate vertical wind shear.  The strong easterly winds in the lower levels are also contributing to the shear.  Invest 90L could develop into a tropical cyclone when it moves farther west.  The shear could diminish and the Sea Surface Temperatures in the western Caribbean Sea and Bay of Campeche are very warm.  NHC is indicating that there is a 20% probability Invest 90L will become a tropical cyclone during the next five days.

The tropical wave over the far eastern Atlantic has a better chance of developing into a tropical cyclone.  Invest 99L is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It is moving under the eastern end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge is causing northeasterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the tropical wave.  Those winds are producing moderate vertical wind shear.  When the wave moves farther west, it will move under weaker winds and the wind shear will decrease.  NHC is indicating that there is a 70% probability that Invest 99L will become a tropical cyclone during the next five days.