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Tropical Cyclone Paul Forms over Coral Sea

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Tropical Cyclone Paul formed over the Coral Sea on Wednesday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Paul was located at latitude 13.8°S and longitude 154.3°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) south-southeast of the Tagula Island. Paul was moving toward the south-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A low pressure system over the Coral Sea southeast of New Guinea strengthened on Wednesday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Paul. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Cyclone Paul. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern side of the center of Paul’s circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Paul. The circulation around Paul was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Paul’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Paul will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Paul will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. An upper level trough over eastern Australia will produce west-northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Paul’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Paul could intensify during the next 24 hours despite the wind shear. The vertical wind shear is forecast to increase on Friday. Paul will start to weaken when the wind shear increases.

Tropical Cyclone Paul will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone Paul will not move much during the next day or so. A high pressure system over the Southwest Pacific Ocean and eastern Australia is likely to start to steer Paul toward the west on Friday. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Paul will eventually start to move toward the northern Cape York Peninsula.

Elsewhere, a weakening Tropical Cyclone Olga was passing near Exmouth, Australia. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Olga was located at latitude 21.4°S and longitude 114.3°E which put it about 85 miles (135 km) north-northeast of the Exmouth, Australia. Olga was moving toward the southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb. A weather station on Barrow Island reported a sustained wind speed of 37 m.p.h. (59 km/h) and a wind gust of 45 m.p.h. (72 km/h).

Tropical Cyclone Jasper Nears Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Jasper neared the coast of Queensland on Tuesday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper was located at latitude 15.8°S and longitude 146.1°E which put it about 90 miles (145 km) north-northeast of Cairns, Australia. Jasper was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Melville to Cardwell, Australia. The Tropical Cyclone Warning included Cairns, Cooktown, Innisfail, Chillagoe and Palmerville.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper was approaching the coast of Queensland near Cape Tribulation on Tuesday night. Jasper was the equivalent of a strong tropical storm as it neared the coast. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Jasper’s circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours until the center reaches the coast of Queensland. Jasper will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Jasper could intensify a little before it makes landfall. There is a slight chance that Jasper could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over eastern Australia and the Coral Sea. The high pressure system will steer Jasper toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper will reach the coast of Queensland between Cairns and Cooktown in a few hours. The center of Jasper is likely to reach the coast near Cape Tribulation. Tropical Cyclone Jasper could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it reaches the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of Queensland between Cairns and Cooktown. The strongest winds will occur between Cairns and Cooktown. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. A Flood Watch is in effect for the North Tropical Coast, parts of the Cape York Peninsula and Gulf Country. Heavy rain will spread inland over the Cape York Peninsula as Jasper moves farther to the west. Tropical Cyclone Jasper could cause a storm surge of up to seven feet (two meters) along the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor Develops Over Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Trevor developed over the Coral Sea on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Trevor was located at latitude 13.2°S and longitude 146.1°E which put it about 190 miles (305 km) east of Lockhart River, Australia.  Trevor was moving toward the south-southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the Coral Sea organized quickly on Sunday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Trevor.  An inner rainband wrapped around the center of circulation and there were indications that an eye could be starting to form.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing in all parts of the Tropical Cyclone Trevor and the circulation was symmetrical.  Storms near the center of Trevor were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Trevor will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Trevor will intensify during the next day or so and it could intensify rapidly.  It is likely to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor will move around the northwestern portion of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge will steer Trevor toward the west-southwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Trevor could reach the east coast of the Cape York peninsula in about 36 hours.  Trevor could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon by that time.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has issued a Tropical Cyclone Warning for the portion of the coast from Cape Grenville to Cape Flattery.  Tropical Cyclone Watches are in effect for the portions of the coast from Cape York to Cape Grenville and from Cape Flattery to Cape Tribulation.