Tag Archives: Caribbean Sea

Tropical Storm Harvey Develops East of Barbados

A reconnaissance plane found that a center of circulation and winds to tropical storm force had developed in a tropical wave previously designated as Invest 91L and Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.  Based on data collected by the recon plane the National Hurricane Center named the system Tropical Storm Harvey on Thursday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located at latitude 13.0°N and longitude 55.8°W which put it about 250 miles (400 km) east of Barbados.  Harvey was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Martinique, Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and St. Lucia.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Dominica.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Harvey became better organized on Thursday.  A low level center of circulation developed and bands of showers and thunderstorms began to revolve around the center.  Intermittent bursts of thunderstorms occurred near and to the west of the center of circulation.  The circulation of Tropical Storm Harvey is asymmetrical.  Most of the stronger thunderstorms are occurring in the western half of the circulation.  The bands in the eastern half of the circulation consist primarily of showers and low clouds.  Thunderstorms near the core of Harvey were generating some upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the south and west of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Harvey will be moving through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification.  Harvey will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level ridge northeast of Puerto Rico is producing northeasterly winds which are blowing toward the top of Tropical Storm Harvey.  Those winds are producing moderate vertical wind shear which is probably the cause of the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.  Tropical Storm Harvey is likely to get better organized on Friday and it could strengthen.  The intensity guidance is mixed.  Some guidance forecasts that Harvey will become a hurricane as it moves over the Caribbean Sea, while other guidance weaken the tropical storm back to a tropical wave.  So far, the guidance has underpredicted the strength of Tropical Storm Harvey and so strengthen would seem more likely.

Tropical Storm Harvey is being steered quickly toward the west by the subtropical high over the Atlantic Ocean.  A general westerly or west-northwesterly track is forecast for the next few days.  On its anticipate track Tropical Storm Harvey could reach Barbados in about 12 hours.  Harvey could also reach Martinique, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines on Friday.  Tropical Storm Harvey will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to those islands when it moves over them.

Tropical Storm Bret Forms Near Trinidad

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Potential Tropical Cyclone 02 on Monday afternoon as it moved closer to Trinidad and the plane found a closed circulation.  Based on data from the reconnaissance plane the National Hurricane Center classified the system as Tropical Storm Bret.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Bret was located at latitude 9.5°N and longitude 60.5°W which put it about 85 miles (135 km) southeast of Trinidad.  Bret was moving toward the west-northwest at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for Grenada, Trinidad, Tobago and the coast of Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana.  Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao.

The reconnaissance plane found a well organized center of circulation at the surface.  The strongest winds were occurring in vigorous bands of thunderstorms located north of the center of circulation.  Weaker showers and thunderstorms were occurring in bands south of the center of circulation.  The thunderstorms north of the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the north of the tropical storm.  The circulation of Tropical Storm Bret is fairly small.  Winds to tropical storm force only extend out about 80 miles (130 km) to the north of the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Bret will move through an environment that will only be marginally favorable for intensification on Tuesday.  Bret will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level ridge east of Bret and an upper level trough to the west are producing southerly winds which are generating moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear may be responsible for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.  The shear will also inhibit intensification during the next 24 hours, although some intensification may possible.  When Bret moves into the Caribbean Sea, the vertical wind shear will increase.  Tropical Storm Bret will also move very close to the north coast of Venezuela.  It could pull drier air from South America into the southern part of the circulation, which would contribute to further weakening.

The subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean is steering Tropical Storm Bret rapidly toward the west-northwest.  A fast west-northwesterly motion is forecast to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Bret will move across Trinidad, near the north coast of Venezuela and toward Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao.  It will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to all of those places.

Invest 92L Becomes Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, Warnings Issued for Windward Islands

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) changed the designation of Invest 92L to Potential Tropical Cyclone 02 on Sunday evening.  NHC implemented a new policy for 2017 which allows it to issue tropical cyclone watches and warnings before it officially classifies a system as a tropical cyclone.  NHC issued Tropical Storm Warnings for some of the Windward Islands because of Potential Tropical Cyclone 02 on Sunday evening in accordance with the new policy.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone 02 was located at latitude 7.9°N and longitude 52.4°W which put it about 630 miles (1015 km) east-southeast of Trinidad.  It was moving toward the west-northwest at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings have been issued for Barbados, St. Vincent, the Grenadines, Grenada, Trinidad, and Tobago.

The circulation of Potential Tropical Cyclone 02 appeared to get better organized on Sunday evening.  Satellite imagery seemed to indicate that a more circular area of thunderstorms was forming around the center of circulation.  The system was already producing sustained winds to 40 m.p.h. (60 km/h) and if a center of circulation develops, it will be classified as a tropical storm.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 02 will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level trough over the eastern Caribbean Sea is generating southwesterly winds that are causing some vertical wind shear.  Potential Tropical Cyclone 02 has about 24 to 36 hours before the shear increases significantly.  After that time the system will weaken.

A subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic is steering Potential Tropical Cyclone 02 toward the west-northwest.  A general west-northwesterly motion is expected to continue.  On its anticipated track Potential Tropical Cyclone 02 will reach the southern Windward Islands later on Monday.  It will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain when it gets there.

Invests 92L, 93L Monitored for Possible Development

Two weather systems designated as Invest 92L and Invest 93L are being monitored for possible development into tropical cyclones.  Invest 92L is a tropical wave that is speeding toward the Windward Islands.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Invest 92L was located at latitude 7.3°N and longitude 49.4°W which put it about 800 miles (1290 km) east-southeast of the Windward Islands.  It was moving toward the west-northwest at 24 m.p.h. (39 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Invest 93L consists of a broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the surface center of Invest 93L was located at latitude 19.0°N and longitude 87.1°W which put it about 145 miles (230 km) south of Cancun, Mexico.  It was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Invest 92L is a tropical wave and it has not yet develop a well defined surface center.  There is some evidence of cyclonic rotation on visible satellite imagery and there could be a center in the middle levels of the circulation.  Most of the stronger thunderstorms are located north and west of the center.  The are some bands of showers and thunderstorms south and west of the center.  There is some upper level divergence from the thunderstorms north and west of the center, but it is not well developed at the current time.

Invest 92L is in an environment that is moderately favorable to development of a tropical cyclone.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It is in a region of rapid easterly flow, but the wind speed is fairly similar at all levels.  So, there is not a lot of vertical wind shear.  The rapid easterly flow could be inhibiting the formation of a well defined center of circulation.  Invest 92L will be in a moderately favorable environment for about another 36 hours.  An upper level trough over the eastern Caribbean Sea will create increased vertical wind shear when Invest 92L reaches that location.  The National Hurricane Center is indicating that there is a 60% probability that Invest 92L will develop into a tropical cyclone during the next two days.

Invest 92L is being steered rapidly toward the west-northwest by a subtropical high north of it.  A fairly quick motion toward the west-northwest is expected to continue for the next few days.  On its anticipated track Invest 92L could be near the Windward Islands by late Monday.  Even it if does not develop into a tropical cyclone, the system will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to those islands.

The structure of Invest 93L is much more complicated.  There is a very broad but weak surface low pressure system over the Yucatan peninsula and the center of that low is being used as the center of the Invest.  However, there is a strong mid-level center of circulation near latitude 18.7°N and longitude 82.9°W which is about 115 miles (185 km) west-southwest of Grand Cayman.  Invest 93L is producing winds to near tropical storm force and those winds are occurring in thunderstorms associated with the mid-level circulation.  It is possible that downdrafts in those thunderstorms could transport enough momentum to the surface to generate a new surface center beneath the mid-level center.

Invest 93L is moving in an environment that will be favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone.  An upper level ridge is building between the trough over the eastern Caribbean Sea and another upper level trough over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.  The trough over the northwestern Gulf is producing strong southwesterly winds which are causing vertical wind shear over the surface low over the Yucatan peninsula.  However, the upper level ridge is producing an area of slower winds over the mid-level center and there is less vertical wind shear there.  In fact, the upper level ridge is enhancing upper level divergence over the mid-level center.  If that continues, surfaces pressure will begin to decrease in that region.  The National Hurricane is indicating that there is a 70% probability of development of a tropical cyclone or a subtropical cyclone during the next two days.

Invest 93L is moving slowly north-northwestward around the western end of the subtropical high over the Atlantic Ocean.  A general north-northwesterly motion is expected to continue for another day or two, but there is some spread in the guidance from the numerical models.  If a cyclone forms from the surface low over the Yucatan peninsula, then the greatest risk would be to the western Gulf of Mexico.  If a new surface center forms farther east under the mid-level center, then there would be a greater risk for the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico.  Interests around the Gulf should monitor Invest 93L.

Invest 90L Meandering Over Southwest Caribbean Sea

An area of low pressure designated as Invest 90L has meandered over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the past several days.  At 7:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Invest 90L was located at latitude 12.3°N and longitude 81.3°W which put it about 170 miles (275 km) east of Bluefields, Nicaragua.  Invest 90L was moving toward the west at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Invest 90L consists of a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.  There is a definite area of counterclockwise rotation, but the is no well defined core at the center of the low.  There is a swirl of low clouds and showers at the center of Invest 90L, but there are no thunderstorms near the center.  Thunderstorms form and dissipate in bands around the periphery of the circulation.

The environment around the southwestern Caribbean Sea is not as favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone as it was earlier this week.  Invest 90L is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  However, northerly winds blowing across the Gulf of Mexico have transported drier air over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The drier air has not reached Invest 90L, but the drier air is just to the northwest of the low pressure system.  An upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico is producing southwesterly winds which are blowing over the top of Invest 90L.  Those winds are generating moderate vertical wind shear which is inhibiting the organization of the low pressure system.  Even with the inhibiting factors the National Hurricane Center is indicating that the probability of the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next five days is 70%.

The fact that there is only a low level circulation means that Invest 90L is being steering by winds closer to the surface.  The winds in the lower levels have been pushing the low pressure system very slowly toward the west.  Guidance from numerical models suggests that Invest 90L could meander over the southwestern Caribbean Sea for several more days.

Possible Tropical Development Over the Southwest Caribbean Sea

A weak trough of low pressure over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone during the next few days.  The National Hurricane Center is stating that there is a 70% probability of the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next five days.  A broad trough of low pressure stretches from near Panama to east of Nicaragua.  There is not a well defined center of low pressure within the broader trough.  There were more thunderstorms earlier today, but many of them weakened on Monday evening.  A few more thunderstorms developed north of Panama during the past several hours.

The environment over the southwestern Caribbean Sea is favorable for intensification.  The Sea Surface Temperature of water in that part of the Caribbean Sea is around 29°C.  There is an upper level ridge over the area.  The winds are weaker in the center of the ridge and there is little vertical wind shear in that part of the atmosphere.  The ridge providing a source of upper level divergence which is allowing the surface pressure to decrease slowly.

Several numerical models are suggesting that a tropical cyclone could develop during the next few days.  The models do differ on exactly when and where the tropical cyclone could form.  The probability of development will be higher if the area of lower pressure remains over the water.  However, if the trough of low pressure drifts closer to the coast of Nicaragua, then the interaction of the circulation with land could inhibit the formation of a tropical cyclone.  Even if a tropical cyclone does not form, the trough could produce locally heavy rain over parts of Panama, Nicaragua and Honduras.

Tropical Storm Matthew Develops Near the Windward Islands

The National Hurricane Center determined that a surface circulation center formed within Invest 97L on Wednesday morning and it designated the system as Tropical Storm Matthew.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Matthew as located at latitude 13.4°N and longitude 60.7°W which put it about 35 miles (55 km) southeast of St. Lucia.  Matthew was moving toward the west at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for Guadeloupe, Martinique, Barbados, Dominica, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Matthew is still organizing and it appears as if the surface center is located southwest of the mid-level center.  There are many more thunderstorms north and east of the center and there are fewer thunderstorms south and west of the center.  The strongest winds are occurring in the bands of thunderstorms northeast of the center of circulation.  The winds are much weaker in the western half of Tropical Storm Matthew.  The stronger thunderstorms northeast of the center of circulation are generating upper level divergence which is pumping mass out to the north and east of Matthew.

Tropical Storm Matthew will be moving into an environment that is favorable for intensification The Sea Surface Temperatures in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea are near 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is not much vertical wind shear.  Even with those favorable conditions, several factors could slow the rate at which Tropical Storm Matthew intensifies.  First, it is moving west at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h).  Sometimes tropical cyclones generate low level vertical wind shear when they move that quickly.  Second, the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms around the circulation of Matthew could prevent the tropical storm form efficiently using the energy it extracts from the ocean.  In addition, if Tropical Storm Matthew moves too close to the northern coast of South America, it could pull in some drier air, which would also slow the rate of intensification.  Even with those potential inhibiting factors, Tropical Storm Matthew is likely to become a hurricane by the end of the week and it could become a major hurricane while it is over the Caribbean Sea.

A subtropical high pressure system to the north of Matthew is steering the tropical storm toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  Tropical Storm Matthew is likely to slow down over the weekend as it gets closer to the western end of the subtropical high.  Matthew will likely turn toward the north during the weekend.  There is a great deal of variability in how quickly and sharply the models predict the turn will be.  Some models forecast a quick sharp turn toward the north that could eventually carry Matthew near Bermuda.  Other models forecast a later slower turn that occurs over the western Caribbean Sea and could take take Matthew closer to the U.S.  It is too early to know which scenario will be the right one.

Tropical Storm Matthew will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Windward Islands and southern Leeward Islands.  Interests in other parts of the Caribbean Sea, the Bahamas, U.S. and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Matthew.

Invest 97L Poses Risk for Caribbean Sea

A tropical disturbance designated as Invest 97L poses a potential risk for locations around the Caribbean Sea.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Invest 97L was located at latitude 13.1°N and longitude 55.3°W which put it about 285 miles (460 km) east of Barbados.  Invest 97L was moving toward the west at 19 m.p.h. (31 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (70 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft flew a reconnaissance mission into Invest 97L on Tuesday afternoon.  The plane found the there were winds to near tropical storm force, but it could not identify a closed circulation.  The winds on the western side were weaker and the plane was unable to find a surface center.  There does seem to be cyclonic rotation above the surface at least on infrared satellite imagery.

The circulation in Invest 97L is still organizing.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms are forming north and east of the apparent center on satellite imagery.  Rainbands are also forming north and east of the center.  Recent satellite images suggest that some thunderstorms could be developing closer to the center of cyclonic rotation.  The current thunderstorms are generating upper level divergence which is pumping out mass to the north and east of the system.

Invest 97L is moving through an environment that is favorable for intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level winds over the majority of the circulation are relatively weak.  An upper level trough over the Caribbean Sea is generating vertical wind shear over the northern fringe of the circulation.  Invest 97L could become a tropical storm at any time.

A subtropical high pressure system to the north of Invest 97L is steering it toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue for another day or two.  On its anticipated track Invest 97L will move through the Windward Islands near Barbados, St. Lucia, Martinique, and Dominica on Wednesday.  It could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to those locations.

Disturbance Near Yucatan Could Develop Over Gulf of Mexico

A tropical disturbance over the northwestern Caribbean Sea near the Yucatan peninsula is moving northwest and it could develop into a tropical cyclone when it moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico.  The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has designated the disturbance as Invest 93L and NHC is putting the probability of development into a tropical cyclone during the next two days at 80%.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT the center of Invest 93L was located at latitude 18.5°N and longitude 87.5°W which put it about 170 miles (270 km) south of Cancun, Mexico.  Invest 93L was moving toward the northwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (70 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Invest 93L consists of a broad area of low pressure at the surface.  Several bands of thunderstorms are occurring in the eastern and northern parts of the circulation.  There is no well defined center of circulation and there are fewer thunderstorms in the inner portion of the circulation.  The strongest winds are occurring in the bands of thunderstorms north and east of the center.  There is some upper level divergence to the east of Invest 93L.

The environment around Invest 93L is not totally favorable for development.  The Sea Surface Temperature in northwest Caribbean Sea is near 30°C, which means there is plenty of energy in the upper ocean.  However, an upper level low near Texas and an upper level ridge east of Invest 93L are combining to generate strong southwesterly winds that are blowing over the top of the disturbance.  Those winds are creating significant vertical wind shear which is inhibiting the development of Invest 93L.  The upper level ridge is enhancing the upper level divergence to the east of the disturbance which allowed the pressure to fall several millibars on Saturday.  The upper winds are lighter near the axis of the ridge which is why the stronger bands of thunderstorms are persisting in that area.

Invest 93L is forecast to move toward the Yucatan peninsula on Sunday.  If the broad area over low pressure moves over land that will prevent it from developing until it moves back over water.  Numerical models are guiding that the disturbance will develop into a tropical cyclone when the area of low pressure moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level ridge is forecast to extend over the southeastern Gulf and if that happens the wind shear could decrease enough to allow development to occur.  Invest 93L could become a tropical depression or a tropical storm over the Gulf of Mexico.

The southwesterly flow over the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to turn Invest 93L toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track the system could reach the west coast of Florida near Cedar Key late Monday or early Tuesday.  The primary risk is likely to be locally heavy rain.  However, the coast in that area is very susceptible to storm surge and there could be some rise in the water level.  The National Hurricane Center has tentatively tasked a reconnaissance plane to investigate Invest 93L on Sunday, if necessary.

Erika Bringing Heavy Rain to the Northeastern Caribbean

Although it is not very well organized, Tropical Storm Erika brought heavy rains to parts of the northeastern Caribbean Sea on Thursday and it caused flooding on Dominica.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 65.3°W which put it about 135 miles (215 km) south-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico and about 1145 miles (1850 km) east-southeast of Miami, Florida.  Erika was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (70 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.  Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, the U.S. Virgin Islands, the British Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos, the coast of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to the border with Haiti, St. Barthelemy and St. Martin.  Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the Central Bahamas and the coast of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Erika is poorly organized to due persistent upper level winds from the west which are causing vertical wind shear.  The low level circulation consists of a large diffuse center with at least once smaller mesoscale center rotating around inside the larger diffuse center.  The mesoscale center could have been produced by one of the thunderstorm clusters that form nightly in the southeastern portion of the circulation.  Again on Thursday the strongest thunderstorms occurred east of the center of circulation.  Those thunderstorms produced a lot of upper level divergence but the upper level westerly winds pushed that divergence east of the low level center.  As a result, the surface pressure actually rose a couple of millibars on Thursday.  Stronger thunderstorms are forming southeast of the center of Erika again tonight.  So, the pattern of the past several nights appears to be repeating itself again.

An upper level trough over the western Caribbean Sea is causing the westerly winds that are the source of vertical wind shear over Erika.  That trough is expected to drift west and slowly weaken.  If it does weaken in a couple of days, then the upper level wind pattern could be more favorable for intensification.  However, the center of Erika could pass over or very near Hispaniola.  It is likely that the mountains on that island would significantly disrupt the low level circulation.  If the low level circulation maintains its integrity, the Sea Surface Temperatures around the Bahamas and south Florida are very warm.  If Erika still has a coherent circulation at that time it could organize quickly.

A subtropical ridge is steering Erika toward the west.  Erika is nearing the western end of the ridge and a turn toward the west-northwest is possible.  If Erika gets stronger and the circulation is taller, then the upper level trough could push it more toward the north.  On the other hand, if the circulation of Erika stays weaker and shorter, then lower level flow could push it farther west.  Erika is likely to pass near or over Hispaniola on Friday and on its anticipated track it could be approaching south Florida in about 72 hours.

Even if Erika is a disorganized tropical storm it is capable of producing heavy rains and flooding on any island it crosses.