Tag Archives: Darwin

Tropical Cyclone Lili Forms Over Timor Sea

Tropical Cyclone Lili formed over the Timor Sea on Thursday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Lili was located at latitude 9.1°S and longitude 128.8°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) southeast of Tutuala, East Timor.  Lili was moving toward the south-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the Timor Sea exhibited more organization on Thursday and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Lili.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms began to wrap around the low level center of circulation.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms began to develop around the periphery of the circulation.  Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.   The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Lili was relatively small.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Lili will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Lili will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under the western portion of an upper level ridge.  Tropical Cyclone Lili will move through an area where the upper level winds are not too strong during the next 12 to 24 hours and there will not be a lot of vertical wind shear.  Lili could intensify during that period.  Tropical Cyclone Lili will move closer to the western end of the ridge in about 24 hours.  There are strong northerly winds blowing around the western end of the ridge and there will be more vertical wind shear.  If the shear increases, then the circulation around Lili is likely to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Lili will move north of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge is likely to steer Lili more toward the west.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Lili could reach East Timor in about 36 hours.  Lili will bring gusty winds, but heavy rain and flooding are greater risks.  An alternative forecast scenario is possible.  If the vertical wind shear is not too strong and the vertical structure of Tropical Cyclone Lili remains intact, the upper level ridge could steer Lili more toward the south.  In that case Tropical Cyclone Lili could bring rain to Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Marcus Brings Wind and Rain to Darwin

Tropical Cyclone Marcus brought wind and rain to Darwin, Australia on Friday night.  A weather station at Darwin Harbor recorded a wind gust to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Marcus was located at latitude 12.7°S and longitude 130.7°E which put it about 20 miles (30 km) southwest of Darwin, Australia.  Marcus was moving toward the southwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for the portion of the coast from Cape Hotham to Mitchell Plateau including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.  A Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Cockatoo Island to Mitchell Plateau.

Tropical Cyclone Marcus intensified as it approached Darwin.  An eye developed at the center of circulation and a ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye.  The strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Storms around the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping away mass from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Marcus will move through an area favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Marcus will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge over Australia is producing easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are creating some vertical wind shear, but the shear is not strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Marcus could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it moves over the Timor Sea on Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Marcus was being steered toward the southwest by the ridge over Australia and the southwesterly motion is expected to continue.  On its anticipated path the center of Tropical Cyclone Marcus will move across the Timor Sea on Saturday.  Marcus could approach the north coast of Western Australia east of Kalumburu in about 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Marcus Strengthens North of Australia

A Tropical Low north of Australia strengthened on Thursday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Marcus.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Marcus was located at latitude 10.3°S and longitude 132.6°E which put it about 190 miles (320 km) northeast of Darwin, Australia.  Marcus was moving toward the southeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology had issued a Warning for the portion of the coast from Maningrida to Daly River Mouth including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.  A watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Daly River Mouth to the Mitchell Plateau.

The circulation inside a Tropical Low north of Australia became better organized on Thursday which led the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to designate the system as Tropical Cyclone Marcus.  A primary band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the western and northern sides of the center of circulation.  Other bands of showers and storms were developing in other parts of the circulation.  Storms near the core of Marcus were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Marcus will be moving through an environment mostly favorable for intensification.  Marcus will be moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It is moving in an area where the upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  The only factor that could inhibit intensification is the proximity of Tropical Cyclone Marcus to the northern coast of Australia.  If the center of Marcus remains north of the coast, then the tropical cyclone is likely to intensify.  If the center moves over land, then a slow weakening would occur.

Tropical Cyclone Marcus is currently moving toward the southeast, but a subtropical ridge over Australia will turn Marcus toward the southwest when it approaches the coast.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Marcus will approach the northern coast of Australia in about 24 hours.  It is likely to move across the Cobourg Peninsula and over the Van Diemen Gulf.  Tropical Cyclone Marcus could be near Darwin in about 36 hours.  Marcus is forecast to continue southwest over the Timor Sea.

Tropical Cyclone Marcus is likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the northernmost portions of the Northern Territory of Australia.  The center will pass close to Darwin and it could bring gusty winds and drop heavy rain over that city.

Tropical Low Forms North of Australia

A Tropical Low formed north of Australia late on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of the Tropical Low as located at latitude 9.2°S and longitude 130.9°E which put it about 155 miles (250 km) north of Milikapiti, Australia.  It was moving toward the east at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (45 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Watch for the portion of the coast from Milingimbi to Daly River Mouth including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.

A center of circulation developed in an area of showers and thunderstorms north of Australia late on Wednesday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology classified the system as a Tropical Low.  The circulation was still organizing.  A short band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the southern and western sides of the center.  Other short rainbands were developing in other parts of the circulation.  Storms near the center of circulation were just beginning to generate upper level divergence.

The Tropical Low will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification.  It will mover over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  Westerly winds in the upper levels will cause some vertical wind shear, which will inhibit intensification.  However, the shear is not likely to be strong enough to prevent intensification.  The Tropical Low is likely to strengthen during the next 24 hours.  After that time the intensity will be influenced by how much of the circulation is over Australia.

The Tropical Low is being steered to the east by westerly winds north of Australia.  Those winds are forecast to weaken and the Tropical Low is expected to turn south toward the coast of Australia.  A subtropical ridge over Australia is expected to turn the Tropical Low toward the southwest in a day or so.  On its anticipated track the Tropical Low could be near the northern coast of Australia in 24 to 36 hours.  It could pass near the Cobourg Peninsula, Melville Island and Bathurst Island.  The Tropical Low could also bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the area near Darwin.