Tag Archives: Dominican Republic

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Prompts Watches for Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands, Dominican Republic

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six prompted the issuance of Tropical Storm Watches for Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic and some of the Lesser Antilles on Monday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Six was located at latitude 14.2°N and longitude 59.2°W which put it about 165 miles (270 km) east-southeast of Dominica. The potential tropical cyclone was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches were issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico including Culebra and Vieques. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the northern border with Haiti. Tropical Storm Watches were also issued for Dominica, Guadeloupe and Martinique.

The National Hurricane Center designated a low pressure system east of the Lesser Antilles (formerly designated at Invest 94L) as Potential Tropical Storm Six on Monday afternoon in order to issue the Tropical Storm Watches. The circulation around Potential Tropical Cyclone Six exhibited more organization on Monday. More thunderstorms formed in bands revolving around the center of the low pressure system. Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the low pressure system. The removal of mass should allow the surface pressure to decrease.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. The low pressure system will move under a small upper level ridge near the Lesser Antilles. The upper level winds are weak in the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Potential Tropical Cyclone Six could develop into a tropical storm by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high will steer the low pressure system toward the west-northwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Potential Tropical Cyclone Six will move over the central Lesser Antilles on Monday night. It will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Potential Tropical Cyclone Six could approach Puerto Rico later on Tuesday.

Elsa Weakens South of Hispaniola

Former Hurricane Elsa weakened back to tropical storm intensity while it passed south of Hispaniola on Saturday. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 73.0°W which put it about 255 miles (410 km) east of Kingston, Jamaica. Elsa was moving toward the west-northwest at 29 m.p.h. (46 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Port Au Prince, Haiti to the southern border with the Dominican Republic. Hurricane Watches were in effect for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Santiago de Cuba. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portion of the coast from Port Au Prince to the northern border with the Dominican Republic and from Punta Palenque, Dominican Republic to the southern border with Haiti. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for Jamaica and the Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Palenque to Cabo Engano, Dominican Republic. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Cayman Brac, Little Cayman and the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos, Villa Clara and Matanzas.

Strong winds in the lower levels pushed the surface center of former Hurricane Elsa to the west of the center in the middle levels early on Saturday. The displacement between the two centers disrupted the vertical circulation of Elsa and it weakened back to tropical storm intensity. More thunderstorms started to develop east of the center of Tropical Storm Elsa on Saturday morning. Mountains in southwestern Haiti appeared to deflect the low level flow around the northern side of Elsa. More thunderstorms began forming to the north of the center of Tropical Storm Elsa on Saturday afternoon. A NOAA plane appeared to find that the surface pressure was decreasing again at the center of Elsa on Saturday afternoon. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. The center of Tropical Storm Elsa will pass just south of Haiti and just north of Jamaica. Elsa will move more slowly during the next 24 hours. It will move into a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be less vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Elsa could intensify back to a hurricane on Saturday night.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next 18 hours. The high will continue to steer Tropical Storm Elsa toward the west-northwest, but Elsa is likely to more more slowly. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. is forecast to weaken the high pressure system on Sunday. When the high weakens, then Tropical Storm Elsa will move more toward the northwest. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Elsa will pass just to the south of the southwestern coast of Haiti. The center of Tropical Storm Elsa could pass north of Jamaica and be near eastern Cuba by Sunday morning. Elsa could approach the Florida Keys on Monday. Elsa will cause gusty winds and locally heavy rain over parts of Haiti, Jamaica and Cuba.

Hurricane Elsa Speeds across the Caribbean Sea

Hurricane Elsa sped across the eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Elsa was located at latitude 14.8°N and longitude 66.3°W which put it about 395 miles (635 km) east-southeast of Isla Beata, Dominican Republic. Elsa was moving toward the west-northwest at 29 m.p.h. (46 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Jamaica. Hurricane Warnings were also in effect for the coast of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic and for the coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the southern border with Haiti. Hurricane Watches were in effect for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanmo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Santiago de Cuba. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the coast of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the northern border with the Dominican Republic and for the coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to Cabo Engano. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Cayman Brac and Little Cayman. A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Bahia de Manzanillo.

After intensifying to a hurricane on Friday morning, Hurricane Elsa exhibited a slightly weaker appearance on Friday night. Strong easterly winds in the lower levels were pushing the surface center of Elsa to the east of the center in the middle troposphere. Those winds were causing vertical wind shear and they were pushing the surface center under a layer of drier air in the middle troposphere. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the eastern side of Hurricane Elsa. Drier air was inhibiting the formation of thunderstorms northwest of the center of Elsa. Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence that was pumping mass away from the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) on the northern side of Elsa. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Elsa will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move through a region where the winds in the upper and lower levels will blow from the east. The winds in the lower levels could be stronger, which would generate vertical wind shear. The shear will inhibit intensification and it could keep the surface center of circulation under a layer of drier air. If the winds in the lower levels remain strong, then Hurricane Elsa could weaken on Saturday. However, if the winds in the lower levels weaken, then Hurricane Elsa could start to intensify again.

Hurricane Elsa will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high is forecast to steer Elsa quickly toward the west-northwest. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. is forecast to weaken the high pressure system on Sunday. When the high weakens, then Hurricane Elsa will move more toward the northwest. On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Elsa will be south of the Dominican Republic on Saturday morning. Elsa could be near the southern coast of Haiti by Saturday night. Hurricane Elsa could be near Jamaica and eastern Cuba by Sunday morning. Elsa could approach South Florida or the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Monday.

Tropical Storm Elsa Strengthens, Will Hit Windward Islands Friday

Tropical Storm Elsa strengthened on Thursday night. Elsa was on course to hit the Windward Islands on Friday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 11.8°N and longitude 55.9°W which put it about 260 miles (420 km) east-southeast of Barbados. Elsa was moving toward the west at 26 m.p.h. (43 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Barbados, Martinique, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Grenada and Jamaica. Tropical Storm Watches were also in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Palenque, Dominican Republic to the southern border from Haiti, and from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas, Haiti.

Despite moving quickly toward the west-northwest, the circulation around Tropical Storm Elsa strengthened on Thursday night. The inner end of a rainband wrapped partly around the northeastern portion of the center of circulation. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring mainly in bands in the southern and eastern parts of Elsa. Bands in the western half of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move through a region where the winds in the upper and lower levels will blow from the east. The winds in the lower levels will be stronger, which will generate vertical wind shear. The shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Storm Elsa is forecast to strengthen. If the winds in the lower levels get stronger than they are forecast to be, then those winds could push the lower part of Elsa west of the upper half of the tropical storm. If the lower and upper halves of Tropical Storm Elsa’s circulation decouple, then it would weaken.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next two days. The high will steer Elsa quickly toward the west-northwest. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Elsa will move across the Windward Islands on Friday. Elsa will produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain over the Windward Islands. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Storm Elsa could be near Hispaniola on Saturday and it could approach Jamaica and Cuba on Sunday. Elsa could be near South Florida or the Gulf of Mexico by early next week.

Marco Strengthens to a Hurricane, Laura Drenches Hispaniola

Former Tropical Storm Marco strengthened into a hurricane on Sunday over the Gulf of Mexico while Tropical Storm Laura dropped drenching rain on Hispaniola.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Marco was located at latitude 25.3°N and longitude 87.4°W which put it about 280 miles (450 km) south-southeast of the Mouth of the Mississippi River.  Marco was moving toward the north-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River, Mississippi.  Hurricane Watches were in effect for the portion of the coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana to Morgan City and for New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border.

Former Tropical Storm Marco strengthened into a hurricane on Sunday.  A small eye developed at the center of circulation.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Marco.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the northeast of the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Marco was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center.

Hurricane Marco will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours.  Marco will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level trough over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Hurricane Marco.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent Marco from strengthening during the next 18 hours.

The upper level trough and a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean will steer Hurricane Marco toward the north-northwest during the next day or so.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Marco will approach southeast Louisiana on Monday.  Marco will bring gusty winds and drop locally heavy rain over southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Laura dropped heavy rain on the Dominican Republic and Haiti.  There were reports of flash floods.  At 2:00 pm. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located at latitude 19.4°N and longitude 74.3°W which put it about 80 miles (130 km) southeast of Guantanamo, Cuba.  Laura was moving toward the west-northwest at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portion of the northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Samana to the border with Haiti and for the entire coast of Haiti.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Turks and Caicos, the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, and the Ragged Islands.  Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Carla, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Florida Keys to the Isle of Youth.  Tropical Storm Watches were also in effect for the Central Bahamas and Andros Island.

Tropical Storm Marco Strengthens, Hurricane Watch for New Orleans

Tropical Storm Marco strengthened on Saturday and a Hurricane Watch was issued for a portion of the central Gulf Coast.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Marco was located at latitude 21.9°N and longitude 68.1°W which put it about 50 miles (80 km) west of the western tip of Cuba.  Marco was moving toward the north-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas and New Orleans.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.

Tropical Storm Marco exhibited much better organization on Saturday.  Weather radar on a reconnaissance plane and from Cuba as well as visible satellite images indicated that a small eye developed at the center of Marco.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Storm Marco.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping away to the north of the tropical storm.  The circulation around Marco was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) to the east of the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 50 miles (80 km) on the western side of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Marco will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the nextt 24 hours.  Marco will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move east of an upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico.  The trough will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear is not likely to be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Marco is likely to intensify into a hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Since he circulation around Marco is small, the tropical storm could strengthen or weaken quickly if the environment changes.

The upper level trough and a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean will steer Tropical Storm Marco toward the north-northwest during the next 36 to 48 hours.  On its anticipated track Marco could approach southeastern Louisiana by Monday afternoon.  Marco could be a hurricane when it approaches the coast.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Laura dropped heavy rain over Puerto Rico and it prompted the issuance of a Tropical Storm Watch for the Florida Keys.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located at latitude 18.0°N and longitude 68.1°W which put it about 125 miles (200 km) east-southeast of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.  Laura was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the northern coast of Hispaniola from Le Mole St. Nicholas, Haiti to Cabo Engano, Dominican Republic.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Turks and Caicos, the Acklins, Long Key, Crooked Island, the Inaguas, and the Ragged Islands.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo and Granma.

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the Central Bahamas and for Andros Island.

Tropical Storm Marco is forecast to move over HIspaniola and the mountains there are likely to disrupt the circulation.

TD 14 Strengthens into Tropical Storm Marco

Former Tropical Depression Fourteen strengthened into Tropical Storm Marco over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Marco was located at latitude 18.7°N and longitude 84.9°W which puts it about 180 miles (290 km) southeast of Cozumel, Mexico.  Marco was moving toward the north-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Herrero to Cancun, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Herrero to Dzilam, Mexico.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft found winds to tropical storm force in former Tropical Depression Fourteen and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Marco.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of Marco.  Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in short bands northeast of the center of circulation.  The strongest winds were occurring in those bands.  Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended 80 miles (130 km) to the northeast of Marco.  The winds in the other parts of the tropical storm were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Marco will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Marco will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move east of a large upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico.  The trough will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Marco.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Marco will intensify on Saturday and it could strengthen quickly because the circulation is small.  Tropical Storm Marco could also weaken quickly if the center moves over the Yucatan Peninsula.

Tropical Storm Marco will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high and the upper level trough will interact to steer Marco toward the northwest during the next 24 to 36 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Marco could pass near the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, disorganized Tropical Storm Laura sped across the northern Leeward Islands on Friday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located at latitude 17.0°N and longitude 84.9°W which put it about 195 miles (315 km) east-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico.  Laura was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, the British Virgin Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, the north coast of HIspaniola from Le Mole St. Nicholas, Haiti to Cabo Engano, Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, and the Ragged Islands.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Central Bahamas.

Isaias Rapidly Intensifies into a Hurricane Southeast of the Bahamas

Former Tropical Storm Isaias rapidly intensified into a hurricane southeast of the Bahamas on Thursday night.  At 11:40 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Isaias was located at latitude 20.3°N and longitude 72.1°W which put it about 70 miles (110 km) east-southeast of Great Inagua.  Isaias was moving toward the northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were issued for all of the Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, the Ragged Islands, Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, San Salvador, Andros Island, New Providence, Eleuthera, the Abacos, the Berry Islands, Grand Bahama Island and Bimini. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the entire coast of the Dominican Republic, Le Mole St. Nicholas, Haiti to the northern border with the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Ocean Reef to Sebastian Inlet, Florida.

A reconnaissance plane sampling former Tropical Storm Isaias on Thursday night found winds to hurricane force and a decrease in surface pressure.  The core of Hurricane Isaias organized quickly after it moved over the warm water north of the Dominican Republic.  A band of strong thunderstorms wrapped around the western side of the center of circulation.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 30 miles to the northeast of the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 240 miles (390 km) to the north and east of Isaias in the parts of the circulation that were over water.  Thunderstorms near the center of circulations were generating upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm and allowed the pressure to decrease.   Brands of thunderstorms were wrapping around the eastern and northern sides of the circulation.

Hurricane Isaias will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours.  Isaias will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Isaias will strengthen on Friday and it could intensify more rapidly once an inner core consolidates.  Isaias could intensify into a major hurricane while it moves over the Bahamas.

Hurricane Isaias will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the North Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Isaias toward the northwest during the next 36 hours.  It will turn the hurricane more toward the north on the weekend when Isaias reaches the western end of the high pressure system. On its anticipated track Hurricane Isaias will move over the Southeastern Bahamas on Friday morning.  Isaias will move over the Central Bahamas later on Friday and it could approach southeast Florida on Saturday.  Hurricane Isaias could approach the coast of the Carolinas on Monday.  Hurricane Isaias will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods.  Hurricane Isaias will also generate a dangerous storm surge in the Bahamas.

Tropical Storm Isaias Reorganizes North of Dominican Republic, Watch Issued for South Florida

The circulation around Tropical Storm Isaias reorganized near the northern coast of the Dominican Republic on Thursday afternoon and Tropical Storm Watches were issued for part of the coast of southeast Florida.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located at latitude 19.5°N and longitude 70.6°W which put it about 25 miles (40 km) southeast of Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic.  Isaias was moving toward the northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the entire coast of the Dominican Republic, Le Mole St. Nicholas, Haiti to the northern border with the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, the Ragged Islands, Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, San Salvador, Andros Island, New Providence, Eleuthera, the Abacos, the Berry Islands, Grand Bahama Island and Bimini.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Ocean Reef to Sebastian Inlet, Florida.

The low level center of Tropical Storm Isaias moved across the eastern part of the Dominican Republic on Thursday.  The middle and upper parts of Isaias skirted along the east coast of Hispaniola.  The various levels of Tropical Storm Isaias appeared to be reconsolidating near the northern coast of the Dominican Republic just to the east of Puerto Plata.  New thunderstorms were forming near the reorganizing center of Isaias.  Those storms were generating upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm and allowed the pressure to decrease.  Brands of thunderstorms were wrapping around the eastern and northern sides of the circulation.  The strongest winds were occurring in the portions of those bands over water.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Isaias tightened up on Thursday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 240 miles (390 km) to the north and east of Isaias in the parts of the circulation that were over water.

Tropical Storm Isaias will move through an environment favorable for intensification once it moves past Hispaniola.  Isaias will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Isaias will intensify when it moves north of Hispaniola and it could intensify rapidly once an inner core consolidates.  Isaias could intensify to a hurricane on Friday and it could strengthen into a major hurricane during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Isaias will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the North Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Isaias toward the northwest during the next 36 hours.  It will turn the tropical storm more toward the north on the weekend when Isaias reaches the western end of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Isaias will move over the Turks and Caicos by Friday morning.  Isaias will move over the the Bahamas on Friday and it could approach southeast Florida on Saturday.  Tropical Storm Isaias could approach the coast of the Carolinas on Monday.  Tropical Storm Isaias will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods.

Tropical Storm Isaias Drops Heavy Rain on Puerto Rico

Tropical Storm Isaias dropped heavy rain on Puerto Rico on Thursday.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 68.5°w which put it about 105 miles (165 km) east- southeast of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.  The center was about 80 miles (130 km) south of Cabo Engano.  Isaias was moving toward the northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, the U.S. Virgin Islands, the British Virgin Islands,  the entire coast of the Dominican Republic, Le Mole St. Nicholas, Haiti to the northern border with the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, the Ragged Islands, Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay and San Salvador.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Andros Island, New Providence, Eleuthera, the Abacos, the Berry Islands, Grand Bahama Island and Bimini.

Bands on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Isaias were dropping heavy rain over parts of Puerto Rico on Thursday morning.  Flash Flood Warnings were in effect for parts of the island.  Isaias was also causing winds to tropical storm force in parts in Puerto Rico.  A station at Yabucoa Tanque de Agua reported a sustained wind speed of 46 m.p.h. (74 km/h) and a wind gust to 56 m.p.h. (91 km/h).  A station at Las Mareas reported a sustained wind speed of 3 m.p.h. (69 km/h) and a wind gust of 54 m.p.h. (87 km/h).

The circulation around Tropical Storm Isaias exhibited much more organization on Thursday morning, although the mid-level center did appear to be displaced to the north of the low level center.  There was a center of circulation but the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  Most of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Isaias.  Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  Bands in the western half of Isaias consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Northerly winds on that side of the circulation were sinking over the southern part  of Hispaniola and that could have been suppressing the development of thunderstorms in that region.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Isaias was very still very large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 415 miles (665 km) on the northern side of Isaias.

Tropical Storm Isaias could weaken when the low level center of circulation moves across the eastern part of the Dominican Republic.  The low level circulation will be disrupted by the terrain but it looks like Isaias will pass east of the tallest mountains on Hispaniola.  The mid-level center of Tropical Storm Isaias appears to be passing very close to the eastern end of Hispaniola.  The middle and upper portions of the circulation are likely to remain intact and a new low level circulation could form north of Hispaniola.  Tropical Storm Isaias will move through an environment favorable for intensification once it moves past Hispaniola.  Isaias will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Isaias is likely to intensify when it moves north of Hispaniola and it could intensify rapidly once a new low level center of circulation develops.

Tropical Storm Isaias will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the North Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Isaias toward the northwest during the next 48 hours.  it will turn the tropical storm more toward the north on the weekend when Isaias reaches the western end of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Isaias will move across the eastern part of the Dominican Republic today.  Isaias will move over the Bahamas on Friday and it could approach southeast Florida on Saturday.  Tropical Storm Isaias will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the Bahamas.  Flash floods could occur.