Tag Archives: Eastern North Pacific

Unusual Development Possible Southwest of Baja California

Unusual development of a tropical or subtropical cyclone is possible southwest of Baja California during the next few days.  The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued a special Tropical Weather Outlook on Thursday afternoon for a weather system southwest of Baja California.  NHC indicated that there is a 50% probability of development of a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next five days.  No tropical cyclone or subtropical cyclone is known to have developed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean in January.  The record extends back to 1949, but it is most complete for the era of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) which extends from 1970 to the present.

A broad area of low pressure was located about 1300 miles (2100 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Clusters of showers and thunderstorms were occurring in parts of the low pressure system.  Visible satellite images were not showing evidence that the showers and thunderstorms were forming into rainbands.  There was a broad area of low pressure, but there was no evidence of a distinct low level center of circulation.

The broad area of low pressure will move through an environment somewhat favorable for the formation of a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next few days.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C, which means that there will be enough energy in the ocean to support a tropical cyclone.  An upper level low is northwest of the broad surface low pressure system.  The upper level low is producing strong southwesterly winds which are blowing across the top of the broad low pressure system.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear, which will inhibit the formation of a tropical cyclone.  If the winds weaken, a tropical cyclone could form, but if the wind shear remains stronger, a subtropical cyclone could develop.  As mentioned above, the National Hurricane Center indicates that there is a 50% probability of development of a tropical or subtropical cyclone.

The broad area of low pressure is forecast to move slowly toward the north during the next several days.  If a tropical or subtropical cyclone develops with taller thunderstorms, then the southwesterly winds blowing around the upper low will steer the cyclone toward Baja California.  The system could bring gusty winds and heavy rain to Baja California and northern Mexico in a few days.

Hurricane Willa Strengthens to Cat. 5, Poses Imminent Threat to Mexico

Hurricane Willa strengthened Monday morning to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale and Willa poses an imminent threat to Mexico.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Willa was located at latitude 19.1°N and longitude 107.2°W which put it about 135 miles (215 km) southwest of Cabo Corrientes.  Willa was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 925 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from San Blas to Mazatlan, Mexico.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to San Blas and from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya, Mexico.

Hurricane Willa strengthened from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in 36 hours.  Willa is a small, very well organized hurricane.  There is a small circular eye at the center of circulation.  The eye is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds are occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the core of Hurricane Willa.  Storms near the core are generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping mass away from the hurricane.

Hurricane Willa is a small hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extend out about 30 miles ( 50 km) from the center of Willa.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Willa is 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 9.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 44.7.  The core of Hurricane Willa is capable of causing catastrophic damage.

Hurricane Willa will remain in an environment capable of supporting strong hurricanes for about another 24 hours.  Willa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through an environment where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  If an outer rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Hurricane Willa to weaken.  An upper level trough near the West Coast of the U.S. will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Hurricane Willa on Tuesday.  Those winds will cause vertical wind shear and the shear will start to weaken Willa.  Since Willa is a small hurricane, it will weaken faster than a larger hurricane would weaken.

Hurricane Willa will move around the western end of a ridge of high pressure over Mexico.  The ridge will steer Willa toward the north for another 12 hours or so.  Then the upper level trough will turn Hurricane Willa toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Willa will move over the Islas Marias on Tuesday morning.  Willa will reach the coast of Mexico between San Blas and Mazatlan on Tuesday afternoon or evening.

Hurricane Willa could still be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Mexico.   Willa will be capable of causing major damage.  The core of Hurricane Willa will bring damaging winds.  It will also produce a storm surge of 10 to 13 feet (3 to 4 meters) near where core of Willa makes landfall.  Hurricane Willa will drop heavy rain over Nayarit, Sinaloa and Durango.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, upper level divergence from Hurricane Willa appeared to be causing wind shear which was weakening Tropical Storm Vicente.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was located at latitude 14.9°N and longitude 100.8°W which put it about 365 miles (590 km) southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Vicente was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Willa Rapidly Intensifies Into a Major Hurricane, Warnings Issued for Mexico

Hurricane Willa intensified rapidly into a major hurricane on Sunday and Warnings were issued for Mexico.  At 11: 00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Willa was located at latitude 17.7°N and longitude 107.2°W which put it about 210 miles (340 km) south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  Willa was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 170 m.p.h. (275 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 941 mb.  Hurricane Willa was a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from San Blas to Mazatlan, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to San Blas.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya.

Hurricane Willa intensified from a tropical storm to a Category 4 hurricane in 24 hours.  A small circular eye formed at the center of Hurricane Willa.  The eye was surround by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Willa.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The strong divergence allowed the surface pressure to decrease quickly and that caused the wind speeds to increase rapidly.

Willa is a small hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force only extend out about 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Hurricane Willa.  Winds to tropical storm force only extend out about 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Willa is 29.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 8.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 38.1.

Hurricane Willa will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Willa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will not be much vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Willa could strengthen to a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale during the next 12 hours.  An upper level trough near the west coast of the U.S. will produce southwesterly winds which will start to affect Hurricane Willa in about 24 hours.  Those winds will cause vertical wind shear, which will cause Willa to start to weaken.

Hurricane Willa will move around the western end of a ridge of high pressure over Mexico.  The ridge will steer Willa toward the north on Monday.  The upper level trough near the west coast of the U.S. will turn Hurricane Willa toward the northeast on Tuesday.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Willa could make landfall on the coast of Mexico on Tuesday night.  Willa could be a major hurricane when it approaches the coast.  It will be capable of causing major wind damage and a significant storm surge along the coast.  Willa will also drop locally heavy rain and it could flash floods when it moves inland over Mexico.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean Tropical Storm Vicente was moving near the southeastern periphery of Hurricane Willa.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was located at latitude 13.9°N and longitude 98.7°W which put it about 220 miles (355 km) south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico.  Vicente was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Willa Strengthens Quickly Southwest of Mexico

Only one day after the formation of Tropical Storm Vicente, Tropical Storm Willa strengthened quickly southwest of Mexico.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Willa was located at latitude 15.2°N and longitude 105.8°W which put it about 280 miles (450 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Will was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Several bands of showers and thunderstorms wrapped tightly around a distinct low level center of circulation on Saturday and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Willa.  Willa continued to organize quickly on Saturday afternoon.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms formed and began to revolve around the core of Tropical Storm Willa.  Storms near the core started to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Willa was still compact.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Willa will move through an environment favorable for intensification.  Willa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Willa is likely to intensify into a hurricane during the next 24 hours.  It could intensify rapidly and there is a chance Tropical Storm Will could strengthen into a major hurricane during the next two or three days.

Tropical Storm Willa will move around the western end of a ridge of high pressure over Mexico during the next two or three days.  The ridge will steer Willa toward the northwest during the next 24 to 48 hours.  An upper level trough west of California will turn Willa toward the northeast in about 48 hours.  On its anticipated track Willa could approach the coast of Mexico in about fours.  Willa could be a hurricane when it nears the coast.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Vicente also strengthened on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 94.3°W which put it about 120 miles (200 km) south-southeast of Salina Cruz, Mexico.  Vicente was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Small Tropical Storm Vicente Forms Southwest of Guatemala

Small Tropical Storm Vicente formed southwest of Guatemala on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was located at latitude 13.3°N and longitude 92.2°W which put it about 110 miles (180 km) south of Tapachula, Mexico.  Vicente was moving toward the northwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Vicente formed out of a tropical wave that almost produced a tropical depression over the western Caribbean Sea earlier this week .  An area of low pressure developed within the tropical wave, but the low moved over Honduras before it could organize enough to be designated as a tropical depression.  The low continued to organize once it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Guatemala.  A distinct low level center of circulation was evident on visible satellite imagery on Friday and the National Hurricane Center designated the system at Tropical Storm Vicente.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Vicente is very small.  Winds to tropical storm force only extend out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Vicente does have a well developed center and a ring of thunderstorms surrounds the center of circulation.  Several short bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Storm Vicente.  Storms around the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Vicente will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification.  Vicente will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Vicente is likely to strengthen during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Northerly winds blowing across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec will transport drier air over the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  If the drier air enters the circulation of Vicente, then the tropical storm could weaken.  Since the circulation around Tropical Storm Vicente is so small, the tropical storm could intensify or weaken very rapidly if the environmental conditions change.

Tropical Storm Vicente will move around a ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and Mexico.  The ridge will steer Vicente in a general westerly direction during the weekend.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Vicente will stay south of Mexico during the next 24 to 48 hours.  Vicente could move more toward the northwest early next week when it moves around the western end of the ridge of high pressure.

Tropical Storm Tara Develops South of Manzanillo

Tropical Storm Tara developed south of Manzanillo, Mexico on Monday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Tara was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 104.4°W which put it about 95 miles (155 km) south of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Tara was moving toward the west-northwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Tara is still organizing.  More thunderstorms are developing near the center of circulation.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms are beginning to form around the center.  Storms near the center are starting to generate upper level divergence which is pumping mass away to the east of the tropical storm.  The circulation around  Tropical Storm Tara is small.  Winds to tropical storm force only extend out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Tara will be in an environment somewhat favorable for intensification.  Tara will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level trough near Baja California will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear which will inhibit intensification.  The wind shear will not stop intensification, but they will slow it.  Tropical Storm Tara will remain close to Mexico and there is a chance that drier air from land could enter the northern part of the circulation.  Tropical Storm Tara is forecast to strengthen gradually.  However, because the circulation around Tropical Storm Tara is small, it could intensify or weaken very quickly if the environmental conditions change.

Tropical Storm Tara will be in an area where the steering currents are weak for another day or two.  Tara is forecast to move slowly toward the west-northwest during the next 24 to 48 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Tara will remain west of Mexico.  However, several forecast models predict that Tara will move more northward and make landfall west of Manzanillo.  The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for that portion of the coast in case Tara brings tropical storm force winds to the coast.

Tropical Storm Sergio Cause Warnings for Baja California

Tropical Storm Sergio prompted the issuance of warnings and watches for parts of Baja California on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located at latitude 20.0°N and longitude 121.5°W which put it about 770 miles (1240 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Sergio was moving toward the northeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bahia San Juan Bautista to San Evaristo, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Sergio weakened slightly on Wednesday, but the structure of the circulation remained well organized.  A large clear area at the center of circulation was the remnant of the eye that existed when Sergio was a hurricane.  The remnant of the eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several thin bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Storm Sergio.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Sergio.

Tropical Storm Sergio will move over cooler water on Thursday.  An upper level trough west of California will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The combination of cooler water and more wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Sergio to weaken slowly.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Storm Sergio toward the northeast during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Sergio will reach Baja California on Thursday night.  Sergio will bring gusty winds, but locally heavy rain is a greater risk because heavy rain could cause flash floods.

Hurricane Sergio Turns Back Toward Baja California

Hurricane Sergio turned back toward Baja California on Tuesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Sergio was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 127.4°W which put it about 1215 miles (1960 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Sergio was moving toward the northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (155 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Hurricane Sergio was slowly weakening.  It appeared that cooler, drier air was entering the western half of the circulation.  Sergio has been moving slowly and its winds may have mixed some cooler water to the surface of the ocean.  Rainbands on the western side of Sergio consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds and thunderstorms in western side of the eyewall were weakening.  Stronger thunderstorms were still occurring in the eastern side of the eyewall and that was where the strongest winds were occurring.  Some strong storms were also occurring in a band southeast of the center of circulation.

Hurricane Sergio will move through an environment that will cause it to continue to weaken slowly.  Sergio is currently over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C, but it will move over cooler water in a day or so.  An upper level trough centered west of California will produce southwesterly winds which will cause more vertical wind shear.  The combination of cooler water and more wind shear will cause Hurricane Sergio to weaken to a tropical storm within the next 24 to 36 hours.

The upper level trough will steer Hurricane Sergio toward the northeast during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Sergio could approach central Baja California on Thursday night.  It will likely be a tropical storm at that time.  Tropical Storm Watches could be issued for parts of the coast later today or on Wednesday.  Sergio will bring gusty winds and it will drop locally heavy rain.  The rain could cause flash flooding.  Sergio could also bring some rain to New Mexico and west Texas during the weekend.

Major Hurricane Sergio Churns Southwest of Baja California

Major Hurricane Sergio churned southwest of Baja California.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Sergio was located at latitude 13.3°N and longitude 117.9°W which put it about 845 miles (1360 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Sergio was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

Hurricane Sergio is a well organized hurricane.  There is a circular eye at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounds the eye and the strongest winds are occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the core of Hurricane Sergio.  Storms near the core are generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping mass away in all directions from the hurricane.

Winds to hurricane force extend out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Hurricane Sergio.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation.  The Hurricane intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Sergio is 23.6.  The Hurrricane Size Index (HSI) is 15.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 38.7.

Hurricane Sergio will remain in an environment capable of supporting a major hurricane for several more days.  Sergio will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Sergio could strengthen to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  Hurricane Sergio will move over cooler water in a couple of days and it is likely to weaken when that occurs.

Hurricane Sergio will move south of a subtropical ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Sergio toward the northwest during the next day or so.  The ridge is forecast to strengthen on Friday and it will steer Sergio more toward the west when that happens.  On its expected track Hurricane Sergio will move gradually farther away from Baja California.

Hurricane Rosa Moves Toward Baja California

Hurricane Rosa moved toward Baja California on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Rosa was located at latitude 22.4°N and longitude 118.9°W which put it about 440 miles (710 km) south-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico.  Rosa was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bahia de los Angeles to San Felipe, Mexico.

Hurricane Rosa will move into an environment unfavorable for hurricanes on Sunday.  Rosa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is cooler than 26°C.  In addition an upper level low near the west coast of the U.S. will produce southwesterly winds which will cause vertical wind shear.  The combination of cooler water and more vertical wind shear will cause Hurricane Rosa to weaken.  Rosa could weaken to a tropical storm by Sunday night.

The upper low will steer Hurricane Rosa toward the northeast during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Rosa could reach Baja California on Monday.  It will likely be a tropical storm at that time.  Even though it will weaken, Rosa will drop heavy rain over parts northern Baja California and the southwestern U.S.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean Tropical Storm Sergio formed southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located at latitude 12.3°N and longitude 103.3°W which put it about 390 miles (630 km) southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.  Sergio was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.