Tag Archives: El Salvador

Possible Development over Southwest Caribbean Sea

A tropical depression or tropical storm could develop over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea east of Nicaragua during the next few days. An area of low pressure at the surface, currently designated as Invest 93L, is over that area. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Invest 93L was located at latitude 11.8°N and longitude 82.2°W which put it about 110 miles (175 km) east of Bluefields, Nicaragua. Invest 93L was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

Invest 93L was located on the eastern side of a larger area of low pressure that extends from the Southwestern Caribbean Sea across Central America to the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. A second, small low pressure system, currently designated as Invest 93E, was located over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of El Salvador. Visible satellite images appeared to show some counterclockwise rotation of lower clouds over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea east of Nicaragua. A few thunderstorms formed near the apparent center of circulation, but the system did not possess enough organization to be classified as a tropical depression.

Invest 93L will be in an environment that is somewhat favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next few days. Invest 93L will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. If Invest 93L remains over the Southwest Caribbean Sea, it could develop into a tropical depression during the next 48 hours. However, if the center of Invest 93L moves inland over Nicaragua, then it will not develop. The National Hurricane Center is indicating there is a probability of 40% that Invest 93L develops into a tropical cyclone. A reconnaissance plane has been tentatively tasked to investigate Invest 93L on Wednesday afternoon, if necessary.

Invest 93L will move near the southwestern part of a high pressure system that extends from the Western Atlantic Ocean over the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. The steering winds are weak near the southwestern part of the high pressure system, but those winds could steer Invest 93L slowly toward the northwest during the next few days. On its anticipated track, Invest 93L will move close to the coast of Nicaragua. Invest 93L could drop heavy rain over parts of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica and El Salvador. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some places.

Tropical Depression Forms South of El Salvador

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of El Salvador in Thursday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen-E was located at latitude 9.4°N and longitude 90.0°W which put it about 300 miles (485 km) south of San Salvador, El Salvador. The tropical depression was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Thunderstorms formed closer to the center of a small low pressure system south of El Salvador on Thursday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Eighteen-E. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in a band a little to the east of the center of circulation. Storms in that band began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression. Bands in the western half of the depression consisted of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge west of Central America. The northern part of the upper level ridge will produce weak westerly winds that will blow toward the top of the depression’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but it will not be strong enough to prevent the tropical depression from getting stronger. Tropical Depression Eighteen-E is likely to slowly intensify to a tropical storm during the next several days.

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E will move around the southern side of a surface high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high will steer the tropical depression toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Eighteen-E will move farther away from Central America.

Tropical Storm Polo Forms Southwest of Baja California

Tropical Storm Polo formed southwest of Baja California formed southwest of Baja California on Wednesday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Iota was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 116.0°W which put it about 605 miles (970 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Polo was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of a low pressure system southwest of Baja California on Wednesday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Polo. The circulation around Tropical Storm Polo was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in a band that wrapped around the eastern and southern sides of the center of Polo. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Polo will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Polo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27.5°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak during the next 24 hours and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Polo could intensify more on Wednesday. Polo will move closer to an upper level trough over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Thursday. The trough will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Polo. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and the shear will cause Polo to start to weaken later this week.

Tropical Storm Polo will move south of an high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Polo toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Polo will move farther away from Mexico.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Iota was moving across El Salvador. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Iota was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 89.5°W which put it about 20 miles (30 km) west-northwest of San Salvador, El Salvador. Iota was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Hurricane Iota Drops Heavy Rain over Nicaragua and Honduras

Hurricane Iota was dropping heavy rain over Nicaragua and Honduras on Tuesday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Iota was located at latitude 13.7°N and longitude 85.2°W which put it about 135 miles (220 km) east of Tegucigapla, Honduras. Iota was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bluefields, Nicaragua to the Honduras/Guatemala border including the Bay Islands.

Hurricane Iota continued to move steadily inland over Nicaragua on Tuesday morning. The center of Iota was just to the east of the border between Nicaragua and Honduras. Hurricane Iota was dropping heavy rain over much of Nicaragua and Honduras. Bands of showers and thunderstorms continued to revolve around the center of Iota. Those rainbands were dropping rain fast enough to cause flash floods over many of the same places that were flooded by Hurricane Eta.

Hurricane Iota will continue to move westward during the next 24 to 36 hours. Iota will weaken to a tropical storm when its center moves over Honduras during the next few hours. Iota will likely be a tropical depression when the center reaches El Salvador on Tuesday night. Even though Hurricane Iota will weaken steadily, it will continue to drop heavy rain over Nicaragua, Honduras and El Salvador. Catastrophic flash floods could occur in that region.

Tropical Storm Amanda Drops Heavy Rain on Guatemala and El Salvador

Tropical Storm Amanda dropped heavy rain on parts of Guatemala and El Salvador on Sunday.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Amanda was located at latitude 14.2°N and longitude 90.4°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) south-southeast of Guatemala City, Guatemala.  Amanda was moving toward the north-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings remained in effect for the entire coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador.

The circulation around former Tropical Depression Two-E strengthened on Sunday morning as it approached the coast of Guatemala and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Amanda.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) on the eastern side of Amanda.  Winds on the western side of the circulation were mostly less than tropical storm force.

The heaviest rain in Tropical Storm Amanda was falling near the center of circulation and in bands on the eastern side of the circulation.  Tropical Storm Amanda was located on the eastern side of a much larger counterclockwise circulation that is sometimes called a Central American Gyre (CAG).  The CAG will steer Amanda toward the north during the next 24 to 36 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Amanda will move across Guatemala toward the southern Yucatan peninsula.  Amanda will drop locally heavy rain over parts of El Salvador, Guatemala, Belize and eastern Mexico.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

The lower level part of the circulation of Tropical Storm Amanda will weaken while the tropical storm moves over land.  The circulation of Amanda that is above the surface could move over the Bay of Campeche early next week.  A new tropical cyclone could form over the Bay of Campeche if that happens.  The National Hurricane Center is indicating that there is a 50% probability of the formation of a tropical cyclone over the Bay of Campeche during the next five days.

Tropical Depression Two-E Forms Near Guatemala

Tropical Depression Two-E formed near the coast of Guatemala on Saturday.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Two-E was located at latitude 12.6°N and longitude 91.0°W which put it about 90 miles (145 km) south of Puerto San Jose, Guatemala.  The depression was moving toward the north-northeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the entire coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala.

A distinct center of circulation developed south of the coast of Guatemala on Saturday.  More thunderstorms formed near the center and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Two-E.  Thunderstorms continued to form near the center.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of the depression.  The depression was near the center of a much larger counterclockwise circulation that is sometimes called a Central American Gyre (CAG).

Tropical Depression Two-E will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move under an upper level ridge over Central America.  The upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Depression Two-E could strengthen during the next few hours and there is a chance it could intensify into a tropical storm.

Tropical Depression Two-E will move around the western end of a high pressure system.  The high will steer the depression toward the north-northeast.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Depression Two-E will make landfall on the coast of Guatemala on Sunday.  The depression could drop heavy rain over  Guatemala, El Salvador and western Honduras.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods.

Tropical Storm Selma Makes Landfall in El Salvador

Tropical Storm Selma made landfall in El Salvador on Saturday morning.  Selma weakened to a tropical depression after it moved inland.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Selma was located at latitude 13.7°N and longitude 88.5°W which put it about 45 miles (75 km) east of San Salvador, El Salvador.  Selma was moving toward the northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

The coastal warnings and watches for El Salvador and Honduras have been discontinued.

Tropical Depression Selma will continue to weaken as it moves farther inland.  The higher mountains will disrupt the circulation in the lower levels, but the circulation in the middle and upper levels could persist longer.  Tropical Depression Selma will drop locally heavy rain over El Salvador, western Honduras and eastern Guatemala.  The heavy rain could produce flash floods and mudslides.

Tropical Storm Selma Forms South of El Salvador

Tropical Storm Selma formed south of El Salvador on Friday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Selma was located at latitude 11.1°N and longitude 89.5°W which put it about 180 miles (290 km) south of San Salvador, El Salvador.  Selma was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the entire coast of El Salvador.  A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the entire Pacific Coast of Guatemala.

A distinct low level center of circulation formed in a larger area of thunderstorms south of El Salvador on Friday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Selma.  The circulation of Tropical Storm Selma is very asymmetrical.  Most of the showers and thunderstorms are located in the western half of the circulation.  There are bands of showers in the eastern half of the circulation.  An upper level ridge centered over the Yucatan Peninsula is producing easterly winds which are blowing over the top of the circulation.  Those winds are causing moderate vertical wind shear which is the primary reason for the asymmetrical structure of the circulation.  Selma is a small tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force only extend out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Selma will be moving through an environment that is neutral for intensification.  Selma will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level ridge will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The shear will inhibit further intensification.  If the upper level winds weaken, then some intensification may be possible.  However, if the upper level winds get stronger, then Selma could weaken to a tropical depression.

A large counterclockwise circulation centered over Nicaragua and Honduras is steering Tropical Storm Selma slowly toward the northwest and the general motion is expected to continue on Friday.  The upper level ridge over the Yucatan Peninsula will weaken on Saturday and that will allow Tropical Storm Selma to move more toward the north.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Selma will make landfall on the coast of El Salvador or Guatemala on Saturday.

Tropical Storm Selma will bring some gusty winds to the coast.  However, locally heavy rain and flash floods will be the primary risks associated with Tropical Storm Selma when it makes landfall.

Strong Shear Weakens Adrian to a Tropical Depression

Strong vertical wind shear weakened Tropical Storm Adrian to a tropical depression on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Adrian was located at latitude 10.5°N and longitude 93.1°W which put it about 420 miles (675 km) south-southeast of Salina Cruz, Mexico.  Adrian was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (7 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

An upper level ridge east of Adrian generated strong southeasterly winds which produced strong vertical wind shear and literally blew the top off of the tropical storm.  The upper half of the circulation was carried well to the northwest of low level circulation.  The low level circulation consists low clouds and weak showers.  No new thunderstorms have formed in the low level circulation since it decoupled from the upper half of the circulation.

Strong upper level winds are likely to continue to create strong vertical wind shear on Thursday.  Tropical Depression Adrian is likely to remain weak on Thursday.  If the low level circulation persists for several more days, then the upper level winds could weaken.  The Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  So, if there is still a low level circulation, some strengthening could occur when the upper level winds diminish.

Tropical Storm Adrian Develops South of Guatemala

Tropical Storm Adrian developed south of Guatemala on Tuesday.  Adrian became the earliest tropical storm to form over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean during the satellite era.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Adrian was located at latitude 9.5°N and longitude 92.3°W which put it about 360 miles (575 km) southwest of San Salvador, El Salvador.  Adrian was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A well defined low level center of circulation developed within a large area of thunderstorms over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Tuesday and the National Hurricane Center classified the system as Tropical Storm Adrian.  A primary rainband wrapped about half way around the western side of the center of circulation.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms formed farther away from the center.  There were more thunderstorms west of the center, but bands were forming in all quadrants of Tropical Storm Adrian.  The strongest winds were occurring close to the center of circulation, which is the typical structure of a tropical cyclone.  Thunderstorms near the core of Adrian were beginning to generate upper level divergence which was pumping away mass.

Tropical Storm Adrian will be moving through an environment that will be favorable for intensification.  Adrian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature will be about 30.5°C.  An upper level ridge east of Adrian is producing southeasterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are causing some vertical wind shear, but the shear should not be great enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Adrian is likely to intensify during the next several days and it could become a hurricane later this week.

Adrian is moving around the southwestern part of a subtropical ridge, which is steering the tropical storm toward the west-northwest.  A general west-northwesterly motion is expected to continue for several more days.  When Adrian reaches the western end of the ridge later this week, the tropical storm will turn toward the north and it will move closer toward the coast.