Tropical Storm Ivo formed south of Baja California on Wednesday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located at latitude 15.8°N and longitude 109.5°W which put it about 490 miles (790 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California. Ivo was moving toward the west-northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.
A distinct low level center of circulation developed in a low pressure system south of Baja California on Wednesday and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Ivo. A band of thunderstorms wrapped around the western and southern parts of the center of circulation and satellite sensors indicated that winds to tropical storm force were occurring in the band. Other bands of thunderstorms developed in the western half of Tropical Storm Ivo. Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Thunderstorms near the center of Ivo began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.
Tropical Storm Ivo will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 to 48 hours. Ivo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move south of an upper level ridge that stretches from west of California to northern Mexico. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, which could slow the rate at which Tropical Storm Ivo intensifies. However, the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification and Ivo could strengthen into a hurricane within 36 hours. Tropical Storm Ivo will start to move over cooler water when it moves west of Baja California and that will cause it to weaken during the weekend.
The ridge will steer Tropical Storm Ivo toward the northwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Ivo will move west of Baja California. The primary impact of Ivo will be to generate waves which will reach the west coast of Baja California and southern California.