Tag Archives: EP10

Tropical Storm Irwin Forms over the Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Storm Irwin formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Sunday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Irwin was located at latitude 17.2°N and longitude 121.3°W which put it about 835 miles (1315 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Irwin was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (60 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west-southwest of Baja California strengthened on Sunday and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Irwin. The distribution of thunderstorms in Irwin’s circulation was asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Storm Irwin. Bands in the northern side of Irwin’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The distribution of winds in Tropical Storm Irwin was also asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the eastern side of Irwin. The winds in the western side of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Irwin will move through an environment that is only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Irwin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C. It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Irwin’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear will inhibit intensification. There is also a region of drier air northwest of Tropical Storm Irwin. Tropical Storm Irwin could get a little stronger on Monday, but the vertical wind shear and the drier air will limit any intensification.

Tropical Storm Irwin will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Irwin toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Irwin will move toward the Central Pacific Ocean.

Tropical Storm Ivette Develops Unexpectedly

Tropical Storm Ivette developed unexpectedly over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Monday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Ivette was located at latitude 17.7°N and longitude 113.9°W which put it about 445 miles (710 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Ivette was moving toward the west at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

The circulation around former Tropical Depression Ten-E strengthened unexpectedly on Monday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Ivette. An upper level ridge west of Mexico had been producing moderate easterly winds that were blowing across the top of former Tropical Depression Ten-E’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the shear was blowing the tops off of any thunderstorms that tried to form in the tropical depression. The strengthen of the upper level winds weakened for a few hours on Monday, which caused the vertical wind shear to decrease. New thunderstorms formed in bands in the western half of former Tropical Depression Ten-E. Downdrafts in those thunderstorms transported stronger winds to the surface and the depression strengthened to Tropical Storm Ivette. Tropical storm force were occurring up to 90 miles (145 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Ivette’s circulation. The winds in the other quadrants were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Ivette will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next several days. Ivette will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are 27˚C. However, the upper level ridge west of Mexico will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Ivette is likely to weaken during the next 48 hours, although some fluctuations in intensity could occur if the strength of the upper level winds varies.

Tropical Storm Ivette will move around the southern part of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ivette slowly toward the west during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Ivette will move a little farther away from Baja California.

Tropical Depression Ten-E Forms South of Baja California

Tropical Depression Ten-E formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Saturday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located at latitude 18.0°N and longitude 111.5°W which put it about 355 miles (570 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. The tropical depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California exhibited more organization on Saturday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Ten-E. The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Depression Ten-E was asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of the tropical depression. Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Tropical Depression Ten-E was moving under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over northern Mexico. The upper level ridge was producing easterly winds that were blowing toward the top of the tropical depression. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the shear was the primary reason for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Depression Ten-E will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. However, the upper level ridge over northern Mexico will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Depression Ten-E could strengthen to a tropical storm if the upper level winds weaken for a few hours. The tropical depression will move over cooler water on Monday, which will make the environment unfavorable for intensification.

Tropical Depression Ten-E will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over northern Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Tropical Depression Ten-E toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Ten-E will move farther away from Baja California.

Tropical Storm Ignacio Develops Southwest of Baja California

Tropical Storm Ignacio developed southwest of Baja California on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Ignacio was located at latitude 18.3°N and longitude 114.0°W which put it about 415 miles (665 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Ignacio was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

The circulation around former Tropical Depression Ten-E strengthened on Monday morning and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Ignacio. The circulation around Ignacio was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of tropical storm Ignacio. Bands in the eastern side of Ignacio consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms west of the center of circulation generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm. Even though the stronger thunderstorms were on the western side of Tropical Storm Ignacio, the strongest winds were occurring in the northeastern quadrant of the circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Ignacio. Winds in the other parts of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Ignacio will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ignacio will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C. It will move under the southwestern part of a strong upper level ridge centered over Baja California. The ridge will produce strong easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ignacio’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and they were the cause of the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. The wind shear will limit intensification. Tropical Storm Ignacio could get a little stronger during the next 24 hours. Ignacio will move over cooler water on Tuesday and it is likely to weaken.

Tropical Storm Ignacio will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Ignacio toward the west-northwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Ignacio will remain far to the west of Baja California.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Hilda was located west of Tropical Storm Ignacio. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Hilda was located at latitude 15.4°N and longitude 122.6°W which put it about 975 miles (1570 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Hilda was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Storm Fausto Develops Southwest of Baja California

Tropical Storm Fausto developed southwest of Baja California on Sunday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Fausto was located at latitude 20.7°N and longitude 119.6°W which put it about 640 miles (1020 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Fausto was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of former Tropical Depression Eleven-E on Sunday morning and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Fausto.  The distribution of thunderstorms around Fausto was asymmetrical.  Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern half of the circulation.  The strongest winds were occurring in those bands of thunderstorms.  Bands in the southern half of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) in the northern half of the circulation.  The wind in the southern half of the circulation was blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Fausto will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification.  Fausto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 25°C.  An upper level trough west of Tropical Storm Fausto will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause vertical wind shear which will also inhibit potential intensification.  Tropical Storm Faust is likely to weaken slowly when it moves over cooler water.

Tropical Storm Fausto will move south of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Fausto toward the west during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Fausto will move away from Baja California.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression Twelve-E spun up quickly south of Mexico and Tropical Depression Ten-E stalled between Mexico and Hawaii.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Twelve-E was located at latitude 11.3°N and longitude 97.3°W which put it about 525 miles (850 km) southeast of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.  The depression was moving toward the north-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.  Tropical Depression Twelve-E is forecast to intensify quickly and it could strengthen into a major hurricane during the next several days.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located at latitude 13.7°N and longitude 134.0°W which put it about 1700 miles (2735 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  The depression was moving toward the north-northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Ivo Forms South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Ivo formed south of Baja California on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located at latitude 15.8°N and longitude 109.5°W which put it about 490 miles (790 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Ivo was moving toward the west-northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation developed in a low pressure system south of Baja California on Wednesday and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Ivo.  A band of thunderstorms wrapped around the western and southern parts of the center of circulation and satellite sensors indicated that winds to tropical storm force were occurring in the band.  Other bands of thunderstorms developed in the western half of Tropical Storm Ivo.  Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms near the center of Ivo began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Ivo will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 to 48 hours.  Ivo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move south of an upper level ridge that stretches from west of California to northern Mexico.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, which could slow the rate at which Tropical Storm Ivo intensifies. However, the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification and Ivo could strengthen into a hurricane within 36 hours.  Tropical Storm Ivo will start to move over cooler water when it moves west of Baja California and that will cause it to weaken during the weekend.

The ridge will steer Tropical Storm Ivo toward the northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Ivo will move west of Baja California.  The primary impact of Ivo will be to generate waves which will reach the west coast of Baja California and southern California.

Hurricane Hector Passes South of Hawaii

Powerful Hurricane Hector passed south of Hawaii on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Hector was located at latitude 16.7°N and longitude 156.8°W which put it about 325 miles (525 km) south-southeast of Honolulu, Hawaii.  Hector was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (220 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

The circulation of Hurricane Hector remained circular and symmetrical.  Information from radar and satellites indicated that Hurricane Hector had a double eyewall structure.  There was a small inner eye surrounded by an inner eyewall.  The inner eyewall was thin and it appeared to be weakening.  A clear area, sometimes called a moat, surrounded the inner eyewall.  A second thicker eyewall surrounded the moat.  Several shorter bands of of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hector.  The circulation of Hurricane Hector was relatively small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out about 95 miles (155 km) from the center.

Hurricane Hector exhibited a structure that is sometimes called an annular hurricane.  Annular hurricanes often achieve an equilibrium with their environment which can persist for days if there is not much wind shear.  Hector will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is between 27°C and 28°C.  It will move through a region where there is little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Hector will remain a strong hurricane and it could strengthen during the next 24 to 48 hours, if the inner eyewall dissipates completely.

Hurricane Hector will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the Central Pacific.  The high will steer Hector toward the west for several more days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Hector will remain south of Hawaii.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane John weakened west of Baja California and Tropical Storm Kristy exhibited little change on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane John was located at latitude 23.1°N and longitude 114.4°W which put it about 285 miles (460 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  John was moving toward the northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (155 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Kristy was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 130.0°W which put it about 1410 miles (2220 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Kristy was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Hurricane Hector Prompts Tropical Storm Warning for Hawaii

The imminent approach of Hurricane Hector prompted the issuance of a Tropical Storm Warning for Hawaii County.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Hector was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 150.7°W which put it about 370 miles (590 km) east-southeast of South Point, Hawaii.  Hector was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

The circulation of Hurricane Hector remains very well organized and it seems to have reached an equilibrium with its environment.  There is a circular eye at the center of circulation.  The eye is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds are occurring in that rings of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the core of Hurricane Hector.  Storms around the core were generating well developed upper level divergence was pumping mass away from the hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 40 miles (65 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 115 miles (185 km) from the center.

Hurricane Hector will remain in a favorable environment for several more days.  Hector will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Hector will remain a strong hurricane for the next few days.

Hurricane Hector will move south of the subtropical ridge over the Central Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Hector in a general westerly direction for several more days.  On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Hector will pass south of Hawaii.  However, rainbands on the north side of Hector could bring winds to tropical storm force to the Big Island of Hawaii, which is why the Tropical Storm Warning was issued for Hawaii County.

Recon Finds Hurricane Hector Nearly at Category 5

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft found on Monday that Hurricane Hector had strengthened to nearly Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Hector was located at latitude 15.2°N and longitude 143.1°W which put it about 870 miles (1405 km) east-southeast of South Point, Hawaii.  Hector was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 936 mb.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Hawaii County.

Hurricane Hector has a very symmetrical, well formed circulation.  There is a circular eye with a diameter of 19 miles (31 km) at the center of circulation.  The eye is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Hector.  Storms near the core were generating well developed upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane in all directions.

The circulation of Hurricane Hector is compact.  Winds to hurricane force extend out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 105 miles (170 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Hector is 33.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 12.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 45.4.

Hurricane Hector will remain in its current environment for several more days.  Hector will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  If a rainband wraps around the eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could occur.  Eyewall replacement cycles cause weakening at first while the inner eyewall dissipates.  Hurricanes can restrengthen if the outer eyewall starts for move closer to the center of circulation.  Most very powerful hurricanes only stay very intense for 12 to 24 hours before they start to weaken.  If takes a lot of energy to drive an intense hurricane and if Hector moves into an environment that is a little less favorable, then it could weaken.

Hurricane Hector will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern and Central North Pacific Ocean.  The subtropical high will steer Hector in a general westerly direction during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Hector will be southeast of Hawaii by Wednesday morning.  The core of Hurricane Hector is forecast to pass south of Hawaii, but it could come close enough to cause tropical storm force winds which is the reason for the Tropical Storm Watch.

Powerful Hurricane Hector Approaches Central Pacific, Ileana Forms South of Mexico

Powerful Hurricane Hector approached the Central Pacific Ocean on Sunday while Tropical Storm Ileana and Tropical Depression Twelve-E formed south of Mexico.  The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the coast because of the potential impacts of Tropical Storm Ileana.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Hector was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 138.6°W which put it about 1170 miles (1885 km) east-southeast of South Point, Hawaii.  Hector was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (270 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

The circulation of Hurricane Hector was very well organized.  There was a circular eye with a diameter of 18 miles (29 km) at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Hector.  Storms in the core of Hector were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation of Hurricane Hector remained compact.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 30 miles (50 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Hector was 28.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9,9 and The Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 38.2.

Hurricane Hector will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong hurricane during the next day or two.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C and 28°C.  Hector will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  An eyewall replacement cycle could occur if a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall.  It would cause fluctuations in the intensity of Hurricane Hector.

Hurricane Hector will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Hurricane Hector toward the west during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Hector will be southeast of Hawaii in about three days.

Tropical Storm Ileana developed south of Mexico on Sunday.  The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the portion of the coast from Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located at latitude 13.9°N and longitude 98.9°W which put it about 210 miles (335 km) south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico.  Ileana was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Depression Twelve-E formed west of Tropical Storm Ileana on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Twelve-E was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 105.8°W which put it about 320 miles (515 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  It was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

There is uncertainty about the future interaction of Tropical Storm Ileana and Tropical Depression Twelve-E.  The circulation of Tropical Depression Twelve-E is much larger than the circulation of Tropical Storm Ileana.  In addition, upper level divergence form the depression could cause vertical wind shear over Tropical Storm Ileana.  In one possible scenario Tropical Storm Ileana moves toward Tropical Depression Twelve-E and it is absorbed by the larger circulation.  Another possibility is that Tropical Storm Ileana moves around the eastern periphery of the circulation of the tropical depression,  The second scenario would bring Tropical Storm Ileana close to the west coast of Mexico which is why the Tropical Storm Watch was issued.