A tropical low pressure system designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E by the National Hurricane Center will drop heavy rain on parts of southern Mexico. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E was located at latitude 13.7°N and longitude 93.4°W which put it about 210 miles (340 km) southeast of Salina Cruz, Mexico. It was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was1005 mb.
The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the portion of the coast from Barra de Tonala to Puerto Escondido.
A large low pressure system moved slowly from the western Caribbean Sea into the extreme Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Guatemala during the past few days. The low pressure system dropped heavy rain over parts of Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala and Belize. Several smaller centers of circulation developed within the larger low pressure system on Tuesday. More thunderstorms developed around one of the smaller centers west of Guatemala on Tuesday evening and the sustained wind speed increased to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h). Some bands of showers and thunderstorms were beginning to develop around the low pressure system. A potential primary rainband appeared to be wrapping around the western and southern portions of the center of circulation.
The low pressure system will move through an environment favorable for some intensification on Wednesday. The low will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29.5°C. An upper level high over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will produce northeasterly winds which will blow toward the top of the low pressure system. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear which will inhibit intensification. The low pressure system will be close to the coast of Mexico, which will also limit intensification. The low pressure system could intensify while the center is over the warm water. It is forecast to become a tropical storm on Wednesday, which is why the Tropical Storm Watch was issued.
A high pressure system over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Caribbean Sea will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E toward the northwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track the low pressure system could make landfall on the coast of Mexico between Barra de Tonala and Puerto Escondido within 24 hours. It will bring gusty winds to that portion of the coast. The low pressure system will drop heavy rain on parts of Chiapas and Oaxaca. It could cause flash floods in some locations.