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Tropical Storm Ian Passes South of Jamaica

Tropical Storm Ian passed south of Jamaica on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located at latitude 14.7°N and longitude 77.7°W which put it about 395 miles (630 km) southeast of Grand Cayman. Ian was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Grand Cayman. Hurricane Watches were in effect for the Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio and Artemisa. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. Tropical Storm Watches were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque and Matanzas.

Tropical Storm Ian gradually got better organized on Saturday. More thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms formed and began to revolve around the center of Ian’s circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the northern side of Ian. The winds in the southern half of Tropical Storm Ian were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Ian will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Ian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Ian is likely to intensify more quickly on Sunday. Tropical Storm Ian is likely to intensify to a hurricane during the next 24 hours. Ian could intensify rapidly after an inner core with an eye and an eyewall form. Ian could intensify to a major hurricane within 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Ian will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ian toward the northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Ian could be near Grand Cayman on Monday morning. Ian could be near western Cuba on Tuesday morning. Ian could be a major hurricane when it approaches western Cuba. Ian will move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Gaston brought wind and rain to the western Azores and Tropical Depression Hermine was weakening north-northeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was located at latitude 38.6°N and longitude 33.4°W which put it about 255 miles (410 km) west of the Faial, Azores. Gaston was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 9979 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Corvo, and Flores.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Hermine was located at latitude 22.9°N and longitude 20.3°W which put it about 535 miles (860 km) north-northeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Hermine was moving toward the north at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Hurricane Fiona Moves Toward Bermuda

Hurricane Fiona moved toward Bermuda on Thursday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Fiona was located at latitude 28.0°N and longitude 70.6°W which put it about 455 miles (735 km) southwest of Bermuda. Fiona was moving toward the north-northeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 934 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

Hurricane Fiona moved closer to Bermuda on Thursday morning. A circular eye was at the center of Fiona’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Fiona. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of large quantities of mass was allowing the surface pressure to remain low.

Hurricane Fiona increased in size as it moved farther north. Winds to hurricane force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Fiona. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (325 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 24.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 49.1. Hurricane Fiona was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Jeanne from 2004.

Hurricane Fiona will move through an environment that will become less favorable for a major hurricane during the next 24 hours. Fiona will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level trough near the East Coast of the U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fiona’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Hurricane Fiona will start to weaken gradually when the wind shear increase.

The upper level trough near the East Coast of the U.S. will steer Fiona toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Fiona will be a little to the west of Bermuda on Thursday night. Fiona is likely to be a major hurricane when it gets to Bermuda. Hurricane Fiona will bring strong, gusty winds and heavy rain to Bermuda. Fiona could approach the Canadian Maritimes on Saturday.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Gaston prompted Tropical Storm Warnings for the Azores. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Corvo, Flores, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and Terceira. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was located at latitude 40.7°N and longitude 34.5°W which put it about 340 miles (550 km) west-northwest of the Azores. Gaston was moving toward the east-northeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Hurricane Lorenzo Brings Wind and Rain to the Azores

Hurricane Lorenzo brought wind and rain to the Azores on Tuesday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located at latitude 39.1°N and longitude 32.7°W which put it about 85 miles (135 km) west-southwest of Flores Island, Azores.  Lorenzo was moving toward the northeast at 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for the western and central Azores including Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa and Terceira. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the eastern Azores including Sao Miguel and Santa Maria.

Although Hurricane Lorenzo moved into a more extratropical environment, it remained a large and powerful hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 390 miles (630 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Lorenzo was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 50.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 66.7.  The radius of hurricane force winds was larger in Hurricane Lorenzo than it was in Hurricane Sandy in 2012.  The overall size of Hurricane Lorenzo was similar to the size of Hurricane Sandy.

Hurricane Lorenzo will move into an extratropical environment during the next several days.  Lorenzo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is colder than 24°C.  An upper level trough over the north Atlantic Ocean will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  The colder water and strong shear will cause Hurricane Lorenzo to weaken gradually.  The cooler, more strongly sheared environment will also cause Hurricane Lorenzo to make a transition into a strong extratropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

The upper level trough will steer Hurricane Lorenzo rapidly toward the northeast during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Lorenzo will turn more toward the east later on Thursday.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Lorenzo will bring strong winds, large waves and heavy rain to the Azores on Wednesday.  Lorenzo will be capable of causing extensive serious damage.  The extratropically transitioned Hurricane Lorenzo could approach Ireland and the United Kingdom on Thursday night and Friday.