Tag Archives: Guam

Typhoon Goni Rapidly Intensifies Into Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Typhoon Goni intensified rapidly into the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale east of the Philippines on Thursday night. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Goni was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 131.2°E which put it about 620 miles (1000 km) east of Luzon. Goni was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 205 m.p.h. (330 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 912 mb. Typhoon Goni is capable of causing catastrophic damage.

Typhoon Goni continued to intensify rapidly on Thursday night. A small circular eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) was at the center of Goni. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the tight core of Typhoon Goni. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the typhoon. The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease quickly which contributed to the rapid increase in wind speed.

Typhoon Goni will move through an environment favorable for a strong typhoon during the next 36 to 48 hours. Goni will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could occur. The cycle would cause Goni to weaken when the original inner eyewall dissipates and convergence becomes concentrated into a new outer eyewall. An eyewall replacement cycle would also cause the size of the circulation around Goni to Increase.

Typhoon Goni will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Goni toward the west. On its anticipated track Typhoon Goni will approach the coast of Luzon in about 48 hours. Goni is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it approaches Luzon.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Atsani moved south of the Marianas. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Atsani was located at latitude 11.6°N and longitude 142.6°E which put it about 170 miles (275 km) south-southwest of Guam. Astani was moving toward the west-northwest at 30 m.p.h. (48 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb. Tropical Storm Atsani was forecast to move toward the northwest and to strengthen.

Typhoon Goni Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Typhoon Goni intensified rapidly into the equivalent of a major hurricane east of the Philippines on Thursday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Goni was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 132.2°E which put it about 690 miles (1115 km) east of Luzon. Goni was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 934 mb.

Typhoon Goni intensified rapidly on Thursday. A small circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Goni. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Goni. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the typhoon. The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease quickly which contributed to the rapid increase in wind speed.

The circulation around Typhoon Goni was small. Winds to typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Goni. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Goni was 29.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 6.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 36.2.

Typhoon Goni will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Goni will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Goni could intensify more during the next 24 hours. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Goni to weaken.

Typhoon Goni will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Goni toward the west. On its anticipated track Typhoon Goni will approach the coast of Luzon in about 48 hours. Goni is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it approaches Luzon.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Atsani moved south-southeast of the Marianas. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Atsani was located at latitude 10.7°N and longitude 145.3°E which put it about 245 miles (400 km) south-southeast of Guam. Astani was moving toward the northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb. Tropical Storm Atsani was forecast to move toward the northwest and to strengthen.

Goni Rapidly Intensifies to a Typhoon, Atsani Forms

Former Tropical Storm Goni intensified rapidly into a typhoon east of the Philippines on Thursday and Tropical Storm Atsani formed south-southeast of the Marianas. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Goni was located at latitude 16.7°N and longitude 134.1°E which put it about 820 miles (1320 km) east of Luzon. Goni was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Typhoon Goni intensified rapidly on Thursday. A small circular eye was at the center of Goni. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Goni. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the typhoon. The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease quickly which contributed to the rapid increase in wind speed. The circulation around Typhoon Goni was small. Winds to typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Goni. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.

Typhoon Goni will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days. Goni will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Goni could intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Goni will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Goni toward the west. On its anticipated track Typhoon Goni will approach the coast of Luzon in about 72 hours. Goni is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it approaches Luzon.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Atsani formed south-southeast of the Marianas. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Atsani was located at latitude 8.7°N and longitude 148.0°E which put it about 450 miles (720 km) south-southeast of Guam. Astani was moving toward the north-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb. Tropical Storm Atsani was forecast to move toward the northwest and to strengthen.

Tropical Storm Kammuri Passes South of Guam

Tropical Storm Kammuri passed south of Guam on Tuesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Kammuri was located at latitude 11.8°N and longitude 141.8°E which put it about 225 miles (365 km) southwest of Guam.  Kammuri was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.  The Tropical Storm Warnings for Guam, Rota, Saipan and Tinian were discontinued.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Kammuri exhibited greater organization on Tuesday.  Rainbands around the center of circulation were more circular.  Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the north and west of the tropical storm.  There were also more thunderstorms in bands north and west of the center of Kammuri.  Bands southeast of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The wind field around Tropical Storm Kammuri was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out farther in the northern half of the circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 240 miles (340 km) to the northeast of the center of Kammuri.  In contrast, tropical storm force winds only extended out 75 miles (120 km) to the southeast of the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Kammuri will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few days.  Kammuri will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The shear will slow the rate of intensification, but it will not be strong enough to prevent Tropical Storm Kammuri from getting stronger.  Kammuri is likely to intensify into a typhoon during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane later this week.

Tropical Storm Kammuri will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western Pacific Ocean during the next 48 to 72 hours.  The ridge will steer Kammuri toward the northwest.  A second high pressure system will move eastward from Asia in about three days.  The second high will block Tropical Storm Kammuri from moving any farther toward the north and the high will steer Kammuri toward the west during the weekend.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Kammuri will gradually move closer to the Philippines.

Elsewhere, over the South Pacific Ocean near Vanuatu vertical wind shear weakened Tropical Cyclone Rita.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Rita was located at latitude 15.3°S and longitude 169.0°E which put it about 180 miles (290 km) north of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Rita was moving toward the south at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Storm Kammuri Forms, Warnings Issued for Marianas

Tropical Storm Kammuri formed on Monday and warnings were issued for the Marianas.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Kammuri was located at latitude 10.2°N and longitude 149.0°E which put it about 415 miles (665 km) southeast of Guam.  Kammuri was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of a large low pressure system southeast of Guam on Monday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Kammuri.  The circulation around Kammuri was still organizing on Monday night.  Multiple bands of showers and thunderstorms were forming and the bands were starting to revolve around the center of circulation.  Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm in all directions.

Tropical Storm Kammuri will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few days.  Kammuri will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Kammuri will continue to intensify and it could strengthen into a typhoon within 36 hours.  Kammuri could eventually intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Storm Kammuri will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean during the next two days.  The high will steer Kammuri toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Kammuri will pass south of Guam in about 18 to 24 hours.  Kammuri could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain.  An upper level trough will approach Tropical Storm Kammuri from the northwest in about 48 hours.  The trough will weaken the upper level ridge and the steering currents will weaken.  Kammuri could meander after the steering currents weaken.

Elsewhere, over the South Pacific Ocean Tropical Cyclone Rita was weakening northeast of Vanuatu.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Rita was located at latitude 14.3°S and longitude 170.0°E which put it about 265 miles (430 km) north-northeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Rita was moving toward the south-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Typhoon Bualoi Strengthens as it Approaches the Marianas

Typhoon Bualoi strengthened as it approached the Marianas on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Bualoi was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 147.8°E which put it about 175 miles (285 km) east-southeast of Saipan.  Bualoi was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

Typhoon Warnings were in effect for Tinian and Saipan.  A Typhoon Watch was in effect for Rota.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Alamagan, Pagan and Agrihan.

Typhoon Bualoi strengthened quickly on Sunday.  A small circular eye developed at the center of Bualoi.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the typhoon.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from Bualoi in all directions.

The circulation around Typhoon Bualoi was relatively small.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (215 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bualoi was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.3.  Bualoi was capable of causing localized serious damage.

Typhoon Bualoi will move through an environment favorable for intensification for another 36 to 48 hours.  Bualoi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Bualoi will continue to intensify and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 12 to 24 hours.

Typhoon Bualoi will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific.  The high will steer Bualoi toward the northwest during the next 48 hours.  The typhoon will move more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Bualoi could pass near Saipan in about 12 hours.  If the center passes near or over Saipan, then there will be winds of typhoon force.  However, since the circulation around Bualoi is fairly small, if the typhoon passes north of Saipan, it will receive much weaker winds.  Typhoon Bualoi could be near Iwo To in less than three days.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Neoguri was moving toward Honshu.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Neoguri was located at latitude 29.5°N and longitude 133.6°E which put it about 600 miles (965 km) southwest of Tokyo, Japan.  Neoguri was moving toward the north-northeast at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.  Tropical Storm Neoguri could pass close to the coast of Honshu near Tokyo in about 24 hours.

Neoguri Strengthens to Typhoon South of Okinawa, Bualoi Prompts Watches for Marianas

Former Tropical Storm Neoguri strengthened into a typhoon south of Okinawa on Saturday and Tropical Storm Bualoi prompted watches for the Marianas.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Neoguri was located at latitude 23.9°N and longitude 128.1°E which put it about 200 miles (320 km) south of Okinawa.  Neoguri was moving toward the north-northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

Typhoon Neoguri strengthened rapidly on Saturday.  An eye formed at the center of circulation and a ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye.  The strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Neoguri.  There were more bands of thunderstorms in the northern half of the typhoon.  The circulation around Typhoon Neoguri was small.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center.

Typhoon Neoguri will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next several days.  Neoguri will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  So, there will be enough energy in the ocean to support intensification.  However, an upper level trough over China will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Typhoon Neoguri.  Those winds will produce moderate vertical wind shear and the shear will be strong enough to cause Neoguri to weaken.  Since the circulation around the typhoon is small, it could weaken more rapidly if the upper level winds get stronger.

The upper level trough over China will steer Typhoon Neoguri toward the northeast during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Neoguri will pass east of the Ryukyu Islands including Okinawa during the next 36 hours.  It could approach Honshu in about 48 hours.  Typhoon Neoguri will likely be a tropical storm by the time it approaches Honshu.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, former Tropical Depression 22W rapidly strengthened into Tropical Storm Bualoi.  Bualoi had almost strengthened into a typhoon by Saturday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Bualoi was located at latitude 11.8°N and longitude 150.8°E which put it about 455 miles (730 km) east of Guam.  Bualoi was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Typhoon Watches were in effect for Rota, Tinian and Saipan.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Guam.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Bualoi organized quickly on Saturday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of circulation.  Microwave satellite images indicated that an eye could be forming.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Bualoi.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Bualoi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Bualoi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Bualoi will strengthen into a typhoon on Sunday and it could eventually intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Storm Bualoi will move south of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Bualoi toward the west-northwest during the next day or two.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Bualoi could reach the Marianas in 36 hours.  Bualoi will very likely be a typhoon when it reaches the Marianas.  The center of Bualoi could pass near Tinian and Saipan.  It could be near Iwo To in about four days.

Tropical Depression 22W Forms East of Guam

Tropical Depression 22W formed east of Guam on Friday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression 22W was located at latitude 10.5°N and longitude 156.0°E which put it about 815 miles (1315 km) east of Guam.  The depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Depression 22W was still organizing on Friday night.  More thunderstorms were forming near the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing and were beginning to revolve around the center of circulation.  Storms near the center started to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression 22W will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will not be a lot of vertical wind shear.  Tropical Depression 22W is likely to intensify into a tropical storm during the weekend and it could strengthen into a typhoon by early next week.

Tropical Depression 22W will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer the depression toward the west-northwest during the next two to three days.  On its anticipated track the depression could reach the Marianas within 72 hours.  It could be a typhoon by that time.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Neoguri strengthened south of Okinawa.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Neoguri was located at latitude 21.3°N and longitude 127.8°E which put it about 370 miles (600 km) south of Okinawa.  Neoguri was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.  Tropical Storm Neoguri could approach the southern Ryukyu Islands including Okinawa in about 36 hours.

Typhoon Hagibis Strengthens to Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane over Northern Marianas

Typhoon Hagibis strengthened to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the Northern Marianas on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon was located at latitude 16.8°N and longitude 144.8°E which put it about 195 miles (305 km) north-northwest of Guam.  Hagibis was moving toward the west-northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 915 mb.

Typhoon Hagibis rapidly intensified into the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on Monday.  A small, pinhole eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  The strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  A rainband appeared to be wrapping around the original eye and eyewall and an eyewall replacement cycle could be underway.  The start of an eyewall replacement cycle may have ended the period of rapid intensification.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Hagibis.  Storms around the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.

The apparent beginning of an eyewall replacement cycle produced an increase in the size of the circulation around Typhoon Hagibis.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 250 miles (400 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Hagibis was 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 27.8 and the Hurricane Wind intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 62.8.  Hagibis was capable of causing catastrophic damage.

The center of Typhoon Hagibis passed north of Tinian and Saipan.  Hagibis would have produced very strong winds on some of the Northern Marianas.  The strongest winds would have occurred between Saipan and Alamagan.  Typhoon Hagibis also dropped heavy rain over Saipan, Tinian, Rota and Guam.

Typhoon Hagibis will remain in an environment very favorable for strong typhoons during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Hagibis will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Hagibis is likely to weaken, while the inner eyewall dissipates and the outer eyewall becomes the part of the typhoon with the strongest winds.  Hagibis could strengthen again if the outer eyewall begins to contract.  An eyewall replacement cycle would increase the size of the circulation.

Typhoon Hagibis will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Hagibis toward the northwest during the next several days.  Typhoon Hagibis will move toward the northeast after it moves around the western of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Hagibis could approach the coast of Honshu near Tokyo by the end of this week.

Typhoon Hagibis Rapidly Intensifies Into Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Typhoon Hagibis rapidly intensified into the equivalent of a major hurricane east of the Marianas on Sunday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the cener of Typhoon Hagibis was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 148.8°E which put it about 320 miles (515 km) east-northeast of Guam.  Hagibis was moving toward the west-northwest at 19 m.p.h. (31 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 953 mb.

Typhoon Warnings were in effect for Tinian, Saipan, Alamagan and Pagan.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Rota and Agrihan.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Guam.

Typhoon Hagibis intensified very rapidly on Sunday night.  The maximum sustained wind speed increased from 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) in six hours.  A small circular eye formed at the center of Hagibis and a ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye.  The strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the typhoon.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away in all directions.  The removal of mass was allowing the minimum surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Typhoon Hagibis was increasing in size.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Hagibis was 20.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 18.1 and the Hurricane Wind intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 38,3,  Typhoon Hagibis was capable of causing major damage.

Typhoon Hagibis will continue to move through an environment very favorable for intensification for another 24 to 36 hours.  Hagibis will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Hagibis could continue to intensify rapidly and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale during the next 24 hours.  At some point a rainband is likely to wrap around the existing eye and eyewall and an eyewall replacement cycle will end the intensification of Typhoon Hagibis.

Typhoon Hagibis will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Hagibis toward the west-northwest during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Hagibis will turn more toward the northwest in a day or so.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Hagibis will reach the Marianas in about 12 hours.  The center of Hagibis is likely to pass north of Saipan.  Typhoon Hagibis will bring strong winds and heavy rain.  It will be capable of causing major damage to the Northern Marianas.  Typhoon Hagibis could approach southwestern Japan in four or five days.