Tag Archives: Hawaii

Tropical Storm Lowell Forms South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Lowell formed south of Baja California on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 113.6°W which put it about 450 miles (725 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Lowell was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A scatterometer onboard a satellite detected winds to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) on the southeast side of former Tropical Depression Seventeen-E on Monday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Lowell.  The circulation around Lowell was not well organized.  The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southwestern quadrant of the tropical storm.  Bands in the other parts of Tropical Storm Lowell consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) on the southern side of Lowell.  Winds on the northern side of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

An upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean was producing northeasterly winds which were blowing toward the top of Tropical Storm Lowell.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and they were responsible for the stronger thunderstorms being in the southwestern quadrant of Lowell.  The moderate upper level winds also appeared to be tilting the top part of Tropical Storm Lowell toward the southwest of the circulation at the surface.

Tropical Storm Lowell will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  So, there will be sufficient energy in the upper ocean to support intensification.  If the upper level winds weaken, then Lowell could intensify during the next several days.  However, if the upper level winds remain at their current speed, then it will be difficult for the tropical storm to become more organized.  The wind shear is forecast to decrease slowly, which would allow Tropical Storm Lowell to strengthen gradually.

Tropical Storm Lowell will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high is forecast to steer Lowell toward the west during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Lowell will move farther away from Baja California.

Tropical Storm Fausto Develops Southwest of Baja California

Tropical Storm Fausto developed southwest of Baja California on Sunday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Fausto was located at latitude 20.7°N and longitude 119.6°W which put it about 640 miles (1020 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Fausto was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of former Tropical Depression Eleven-E on Sunday morning and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Fausto.  The distribution of thunderstorms around Fausto was asymmetrical.  Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern half of the circulation.  The strongest winds were occurring in those bands of thunderstorms.  Bands in the southern half of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) in the northern half of the circulation.  The wind in the southern half of the circulation was blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Fausto will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification.  Fausto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 25°C.  An upper level trough west of Tropical Storm Fausto will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause vertical wind shear which will also inhibit potential intensification.  Tropical Storm Faust is likely to weaken slowly when it moves over cooler water.

Tropical Storm Fausto will move south of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Fausto toward the west during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Fausto will move away from Baja California.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression Twelve-E spun up quickly south of Mexico and Tropical Depression Ten-E stalled between Mexico and Hawaii.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Twelve-E was located at latitude 11.3°N and longitude 97.3°W which put it about 525 miles (850 km) southeast of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.  The depression was moving toward the north-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.  Tropical Depression Twelve-E is forecast to intensify quickly and it could strengthen into a major hurricane during the next several days.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located at latitude 13.7°N and longitude 134.0°W which put it about 1700 miles (2735 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  The depression was moving toward the north-northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Douglas Moves Away from Hawaii

A weakening Tropical Storm Douglas moved away from Hawaii on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Douglas was located at latitude 22.9°N and longitude 163.3°W which put it about 200 miles (325 km) east-southeast of French Frigate Shoals.  Douglas was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Storm Douglas weakened on Monday.  An upper level trough west of Hawaii produced southerly winds which blew toward the top of Douglas’ circulation.  Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear.  The wind shear caused former Hurricane Douglas to weaken even though it was moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature was near 27°C.  The low level center of circulation was surrounded by showers and lower clouds.  The only thunderstorms were occurring on the northern periphery of the tropical storm.  Bands in the other parts of Douglas consisted of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Douglas will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Douglas toward the west during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Douglas will move across the International Date Line and over the Western North Pacific Ocean later this week.  The upper level trough will continue to cause vertical wind shear and Douglas will continue to weaken.

Hurricane Douglas Passes Just North of Hawaii

Hurricane Douglas was passing just to the north of the Hawaiian Islands on Sunday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday night the center of Hurricane Douglas was located at latitude 22.0°N and longitude 157.3°W which put it about 60 miles (95 km) northeast of Honolulu, Hawaii.  Douglas was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Oahu, Kauai and Niihau.

The core of Hurricane Douglas exhibited greater organization on Sunday night.  Thunderstorms around the eye at the center of Douglas grew taller as the hurricane moved over warmer water.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 40 miles (65 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center in the northern half of Hurricane Douglas.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out about 50 miles (80 km) on the southern side of the circulation.  The stronger winds were remaining north of the Hawaiian Islands.  There were reports of localized minor wind damage on some of the islands.

Hurricane Douglas will move around the south side of a subtropical high pressure system over the North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Douglas toward the west-northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the core of Hurricane Douglas will pass north of Oahu.  Scattered minor wind damage could occur on Oahu, Kauai and Niihau.  The southern part of the eyewall could come closer to Kauai and the risk for wind damage is greater there.  Winds blowing uphill could enhance rainfall on Oahu, Kauai and Niihau.  Flash Flood Watches were in effect for those islands.

Hurricane Douglas Prompts Hurricane Warning for Oahu

The approach of Hurricane Douglas prompted the issuance of a Hurricane Warning for Oahu on Saturday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Douglas was located at latitude 19.5°N and 150.1°W which put it about 325 miles (525 km) east of Hilo, Hawaii.  Douglas was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (150 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Oahu.  Hurricane Watches were in effect for Hawaii, Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Hawaii, Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Kauai and Niihau.

Hurricane Douglas weakened gradually on Saturday as it moved over cooler water.  Douglas was moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature was near 25°C.  As a result of the cooler water, thunderstorms did not grow as high in the atmosphere.  There was still an eye at the center of circulation, but breaks began to appear in the ring of storms around the eye.  Most of the stronger thunderstorms were in the northern half of the circulation.  Bands in the southern half of the circulation consisted mainly of showers and lower clouds.   Winds to hurricane force extended out about 30 miles (50 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 110 miles (175 km) from the center.

Hurricane Douglas will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Douglas toward the west-northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Douglas will pass north of the Big Island of Hawaii on Sunday morning.  The core of Douglas could pass near Oahu on Sunday night.

Hurricane Douglas will bring gusty winds to the Hawaiian Islands.  The strongest winds could occur on Oahu.  Winds speeds will be greater at higher elevations.  Douglas could drop heavy rain on the sides of the islands where the wind blows up the slopes.  Flash flooding will be possible.

Hurricane Douglas Prompts Watches for Hawaii

Hurricane Douglas prompted the issuance of Hurricane Watches for some of the Hawaiian Islands on Friday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Douglas was located at latitude 17.0°N and longitude 143.5°W which put it about 785 miles (1260 km) east of Hilo, Hawaii.  Douglas was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

Hurricane Watches were issued for Hawaii, Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe.

Hurricane Douglas continued on a track toward the Hawaiian Islands on Friday, which prompted the issuance of Hurricane Watches.  Douglas was weakening slowly as it moved over slightly cooler water.  In addition, Hurricane Douglas appeared to go through an eyewall replacement cycle which may have contributed to the weakening.  Even though it had weakened, Douglas remained a powerful, well organized hurricane.  There was a circular eye at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Douglas.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of Douglas.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Douglas was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 30.5.  Hurricane Douglas was capable of causing localized major damage.

Hurricane Douglas will move through an environment less favorable for major hurricanes during the next several days.  Douglas will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 25°C.  So, Hurricane Douglas will not be able to extract as much energy from the upper ocean.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The lack of wind shear will allow Hurricane Douglas to weaken gradually.

Hurricane Douglas will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern and Central North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Douglas toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Douglas will approach Hawaii on Sunday.

Hurricane Douglas Strengthens to a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Douglas strengthened to a major hurricane on Thursday morning.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Douglas was located at latitude 13.1°N and longitude 134.7°W which put it about 1470 miles (2365 km) east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.  Douglas was moving toward the west-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

Hurricane Douglas strengthened rapidly into a major hurricane during the past 24 hours.  A circular eye formed at the center of Douglas.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Douglas.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center.

Hurricane Douglas will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Douglas will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Douglas could strengthen on Thursday.  Douglas will start to move over slightly cooler water on Friday.  It is likely to weaken slowly once the core of the circulation moves over the cooler water.

Hurricane Douglas will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Douglas toward the west-northwest during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Douglas could approach Hawaii on Sunday.  Watches could be issued for Hawaii later this week.

Tropical Storm Douglas Strengthens Into a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Douglas strengthened into a hurricane east of Hawaii on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Douglas was located at latitude 11.8°N and longitude 129.5°W which put it about 1785 miles (2870 km) east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.  Douglas was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Douglas exhibited more organization on satellite images.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of circulation and an eye was visible intermittently on satellite images.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Douglas.  Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center.

Hurricane Douglas will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Douglas will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Douglas will continue to intensify and it could strengthen into a major hurricane.

Hurricane Douglas will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Douglas toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Douglas could approach Hawaii on Sunday.  Watches could be issued for Hawaii later this week when Douglas moves closer.

Tropical Storm Douglas Strengthens Quickly

Tropical Storm Douglas strengthened quickly over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Tuesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Douglas was located at latitude 12.4°N and longitude 124.2°W which put it about 2110 miles (3390 km) east of Hilo, Hawaii.  Douglas was moving toward the west-southwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Douglas exhibited much better organization on Tuesday morning.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern and eastern sides of the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around around the center of Douglas.  The strongest bands were in the southern half of Tropical Storm Douglas.  Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Douglas.

Tropical Storm Douglas will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Douglas will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Douglas is likely to intensify into a hurricane during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen into a major hurricane later this week.

Tropical Storm Douglas will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high is likely to steer Douglas toward the west-northwest during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Douglas could approach Hawaii by late in the weekend.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression Seven-E weakened over cooler water east of Hawaii.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Seven-E was located at latitude 19.3°N and longitude 134.1°W which put it about 1575 miles (2535 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  The depression was moving toward west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

Two Tropical Depressions Form Over Eastern Pacific

Two tropical depressions formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Monday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Seven-E was located at latitude 18.7°N and longitude 130.3°E which put it about 1345 miles (2170 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  The depression was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Eight-E was located at latitude 13.7°N and longitude 119.8°W which put it about 905 miles (1460 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  The depression was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Depression Seven-E was asymmetrical.  The strongest storms were occurring in bands southwest of the center of circulation.  Bands in other parts of the depression consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The depression was already to moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature was near 25°C.  It was moving under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge which was producing northeasterly winds.  Those winds were blowing toward the top of the depression and they were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  Cooler water and wind shear were contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Depression Seven-E is likely to weaken since it will continue to move over cooler water.  The depression will move south of a subtropical high pressure system.  The high will steer the depression toward the west while it weakens.  On its anticipated track the depression will weaken long before it could pose a threat to Hawaii.

The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Depression Eight-E is also asymmetrical.  Many of the strongest storms were occurring in bands in the western half of the circulation.  Some thunderstorms began to develop in bands in the eastern half of the depression on Monday morning.  Storms on the western side of the circulation began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the depression.

Tropical Depression Eight-E will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean will produce northeasterly winds which will blow toward the top of the depression.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will have less effect because the depression will be over warmer water.  Tropical Depression Eight-E will strengthen during the next 48 hours and it could intensify into a hurricane.

Tropical Depression Eight-E will move around the southern side of the subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer the depression toward the west during the next few days.  On its anticipated track the depression will move in the general direction of Hawaii.