Tag Archives: Hurricane Earl

Hurricane Earl Speeds Northeast

Hurricane Earl sped toward the east over the North Atlantic Ocean south of Newfoundland on Saturday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Earl was located at latitude 41.2°N and longitude 53.5°W which put it about 380 miles (610 km) south of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Earl was moving toward the northeast at 35 m.p.h. (56 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

Hurricane Earl was making a transition to an extratropical cyclone on Saturday morning. An upper level trough over eastern Canada was producing strong southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Earl’s circulation. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear. The wind shear was causing the eyewall around the eye at the center of Hurricane Earl to become fragmented. The eyewall was broken on the southwestern side of the eye. There were still thunderstorms in the northeastern remnant of the eyewall. Bands of showers and thunderstorms in the northeastern part of Earl’s circulation revolved around the center of Earl. Bands in the southwestern part of Hurricane Earl consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Hurricane Earl was almost as large as Hurricane Sandy was in 2012. Winds to hurricane force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Earl’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 415 miles (675 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 32.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 50.2.

Hurricane Earl will complete the transition to a strong extratropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Earl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are colder than 26˚C. The trough over eastern Canada will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The colder water and strong vertical wind shear will cause Earl’s structure to compete the transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The westerly winds in the middle latitudes will steer the extratropical cyclone toward the east during the next few days. The extratropical cyclone will weaken gradually over the North Atlantic Ocean south of Greenland during the next week.

Hurricane Earl Passes Southeast of Bermuda

Hurricane Earl passed southeast of Bermuda on Thursday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Earl was located at latitude 31.3°N and longitude 63.7°W which put it about 95 miles (150 km) southeast of Bermuda. Earl was moving toward the north-northeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 964 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

Hurricane Earl was producing winds to nearly tropical storm force in Bermuda. The L.F. Wade International Airport reported a sustained wind speed of 36 m.p.h. (58 km/h) and a wind gust of 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The structure of Hurricane Earl was beginning to resemble a hurricane that was moving from the tropics into the middle latitudes. An eye with a diameter of 60 miles (95 km) was at the center of Earl’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the large core of Hurricane Earl. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Earl’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Earl will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Earl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. An upper level trough near the East Coast of the U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Earl’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and the wind shear will inhibit intensification. The southwesterly winds could also enhance divergence to the northeast of Hurricane Earl. Earl could intensify on Friday if the effect of the enhanced divergence exceeds the effect of the vertical wind shear. The southwesterly winds are forecast to increase during the weekend when the upper level trough moves closer to Hurricane Earl. Stronger vertical wind shear will cause Earl to weaken and to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough near the East Coast of the U.S. will steer Hurricane Earl toward the northeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Earl will move away from Bermuda on Friday. The gusty winds and rain in Bermuda will diminish on Friday when Earl moves farther away.

Bermuda Issues Hurricane Watch for Hurricane Earl

The government of Bermuda issued a Hurricane Watch on Wednesday afternoon because of the potential effects of Hurricane Earl. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Earl was located at latitude 26.5°N and longitude 65.5°W which put it about 405 miles (650 km) south of Bermuda. Earl was moving toward the north at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for Bermuda. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for Bermuda.

Hurricane Earl exhibited more organization on Thursday afternoon. An circular eye with a diameter of 18 miles (30 km) was at the center of Earl’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a partial ring of thunderstorms. Thunderstorms surrounded the northern half of the eye. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the more organized core of Hurricane Earl. Storms near the center of Earl generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Earl increased in size on Thursday. Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Earl’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Earl was 12.7. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.5.

Hurricane Earl will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Earl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Earl will intensify during the next 36 hours. After an inner core with a fully formed eye and eyewall develops, Earl could intensify rapidly. Hurricane Earl could strengthen to a major hurricane within 36 hours.

Hurricane Earl will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Earl toward the north during the next 12 hours. An upper level trough near the East Coast of the U.S. will turn Hurricane Earl toward the northeast on Thursday. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Earl will pass southeast of Bermuda on Thursday evening. Bands in the western side of Hurricane Earl could bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Bermuda.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Danielle maintained hurricane intensity northwest of the Azores. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Danielle was located at latitude 44.9°N and longitude 34.9°W which put it about 625 miles (1010 km) northwest of the Azores. Danielle was moving toward the northeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Earl Becomes a Hurricane As It Moves Toward Belize

A NOAA aircraft investigating Tropical Storm Earl found that there were sustained winds to hurricane force and the National Hurricane Center upgrade it to Hurricane Earl at 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m EDT the center of Hurricane Earl was located at latitude 17.1°N and longitude 86.0°W which put it about 150 miles (240 km) east of Belize City, Belize.  Earl was moving slightly north of due west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Bay Islands of Honduras and the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Mayo, Mexico to the Belize/Guatemala border.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Honduras from Cabo Gracias a Dios to the Honduras/Guatemala border and from Punta Allen, Mexico to Puerto Costa Mayo.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Earl is 10.4.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 8.0 and the Hurricane Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 18.4.  Those indices mean that Earl is capable of causing localized minor wind damage.

The structure of Hurricane Earl improved significantly on Wednesday as it moved farther from the northern coast of Honduras.  An eye developed at the center of circulation and a band of thunderstorms wrapped about two thirds of the way around the eye.  The eyewall is broken southwest of the center.  Additional bands of thunderstorms are rotating around the periphery of the circulation.  The core of strongest winds is relatively small and only extends about 60 miles (95 km) from the center.  However, outer rainbands extend at least 250 miles (400 km) from the center of circulation and the overall size of Hurricane Earl is much larger than it was yesterday.

Hurricane Earl is moving through an environment that is favorable for further intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It is located beneath an upper level ridge and the upper level winds are weak.  So, there is little vertical wind shear and the ridge is enhancing the upper level divergence.  Hurricane Earl has another 10 – 15 hours to intensify before it reaches the coast.  Earl will weaken as it moves inland, but it could re-intensify after it moves over the Bay of Campeche.  The amount of re-intensification will depend on how long Hurricane Earl remains over land and where it enters the Bay of Campeche.

A subtropical high pressure system is steering Hurricane Earl on a track that is a little north of due west and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Earl will reach the coast near the border between Mexico and Belize in about 10 – 15 hours.

Since it is a hurricane, Earl will be capable of causing some wind damage.  Hurricane Earl will also create a storm surge near and to the north of where the center makes landfall because the winds will be pushing water toward the coast.  The size and number of the rainbands in Hurricane Earl will create the potential for very heavy rainfall and serious flooding as it moves inland over Belize and Mexico.