Tag Archives: Hurricane Fernanda

Tropical Storm Greg Moves Southeast of Hawaii

Tropical Storm Greg moved southeast of Hawaii on Tuesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Greg was located at latitude 11.1°N and longitude 145.9°W which put it about 850 miles (1370 km) southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Greg was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Storm Greg strengthened a little on Tuesday morning as it moved over the Central Pacific Ocean southeast of Hawaii. Even though Tropical Storm Greg was a little stronger, the distribution of thunderstorms in Greg’s circulation was asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Tropical Storm Greg. Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northern half of Greg’s circulation. The winds in the southern half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Greg will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Greg will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Greg’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear is already contributing to an asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. The vertical wind shear may not be strong enough to prevent intensification. So, Tropical Storm Greg could intensify a little more during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Greg will move south of a high pressure system over the eastern and central North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Greg toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Greg will pass far to the south of Hawaii.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Fernanda weakened gradually over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Fernanda was located at latitude 17.0°N and longitude 121.8°W which put it about 875 miles (1405 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Fernanda was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

Fernanda Rapidly Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Fernanda rapidly intensified to a major hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean during Sunday night. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Fernanda was located at latitude 15.6°N and longitude 117.7°W which put it about 715 miles (1150 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Fernanda was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Hurricane Fernanda continued to intensify rapidly during Sunday night. A small eye was at the center of Fernanda’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the core of Hurricane Fernanda. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Fernanda was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Fernanda’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 31.4.

Hurricane Fernanda will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Fernanda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Fernanda is likely to continue to intensify during the next 12 hours. Fernanda will move over slightly cooler water on Tuesday. The cooler water will cause Fernanda to start to weaken.

Hurricane Fernanda will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fernanda toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Fernanda will move farther away from Baja California.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Greg formed east-southeast of Hawaii. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Greg was located at latitude 11.3°N and longitude 139.8°W which put it about 1170 miles (1885 km) east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Greg was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb. Tropical Storm Greg is forecast to pass south of Hawaii later this week.

Fernanda Intensifies to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Fernanda intensified to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Sunday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Fernanda was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 116.5°W which put it about 670 miles (1075 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Fernanda was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Fernanda intensified rapidly to a hurricane on Sunday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Hurricane Fernanda’s circulation. A small eye was visible intermittently on satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the core of Hurricane Fernanda. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Fernanda was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Fernanda’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Fernanda will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Fernanda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Fernanda will intensify during the next 24 hours. Fernanda could intensify rapidly at times. Fernanda could strengthen to a major hurricane on Monday.

Hurricane Fernanda will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fernanda toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Fernanda will move farther away from Baja California.

Active East Pacific With Fernanda, Greg and TD 8E

The tropical Eastern North Pacific Ocean continued to be very active on Tuesday with Hurricane Fernanda, Tropical Storm Greg and Tropical Depression Eight-E.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Fernanda was located at latitude 16.5°N and longitude 134.4°W which put it about 1375 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii.  Fernanda was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Greg was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 110.1°W which put it about 490 miles (785 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Greg was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Eight-E was located at latitude 14.8°N and longitude 119.9°W which put it about 860 miles (1385 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  It was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Although Hurricane Fernanda is the strongest of the three tropical cyclones over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, it is slowly weakening as it moves over cooler Sea Surface Temperatures  (SSTs).  Hurricane Fernanda is over water where the SSTs are near 26.5°C and it will move over cooler water as it moves west toward Hawaii.

Tropical Storm Greg strengthened on Tuesday as it moved over water where the SSTs are near 29°C.  A primary rainband wrapped around the western side of the center of circulation.  Additional showers and thunderstorms formed closer to the center.  Greg is also expected to move west as it moves south of a subtropical ridge.

The future of Tropical Depression Eight-E is less certain.  Upper level divergence from Hurricane Fernanda is creating strong vertical wind shear over the stop of the depression.  The strong wind shear is causing the circulation of the depression to be poorly organized.  There are few showers and thunderstorms in the northern portion of the circulation because of the strong shear.  The stronger upper level winds could shear the top of the circulation away from the lower level circulation of the depression.  It is also possible that Tropical Storm Greg could catch up to the depression and absorb the remnants of the depression into its circulation.

Hurricane Fernanda Slowly Weakens As It Moves West

Hurricane Fernanda weakened slowly as it moved farther west over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Fernanda was located at latitude 13.0°N and longitude 129.2°W which put it about 1440 miles (2315 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Fernanda was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

Hurricane Fernanda completed at least one eyewall replacement cycle in which an outer eyewall formed around the original eyewall.  Eventually, the inner eyewall dissipated and a larger eye formed inside the outer eyewall.  The eyewall replacement cycle weakened Hurricane Fernanda when the stronger, inner eyewall dissipated.  Although Hurricane Fernanda is weaker, it is still a powerful hurricane.  There is a circular eye at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms still surrounds the eye and the strongest winds are occurring in that ring of storms.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the core of the circulation.  Thunderstorms in the core of Hurricane Fernanda are generating strong upper level divergence which are pumping out mass in all directions.

Hurricane Fernanda is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 29°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Fernanda will gradually move over cooler SSTs.  When Fernanda moves over the cooler SSTs, it will extract less energy from the ocean and the hurricane will continue to weaken.  The weakening could occur very gradually because the wind shear is limited.

Hurricane Fernanda is moving south of a subtropical high pressure system which is steering the hurricane toward the west-northwest.  The subtropical high is expected to steer Fernanda toward the west-northwest during the next several days.

Hurricane Fernanda Intensifies Rapidly to Category 4

Hurricane Fernanda intensified rapidly to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Fernanda was located at latitude 10.7°N and longitude 119.7°W which put it about 1060 miles (1710 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Fernanda was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

A clear circular eye formed at the center of Hurricane Fernanda.  The eye is surrounded by a ring of very strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds are occurring in the eyewall.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms formed outside the core of Fernanda.  There are more bands in the eastern half of the hurricane, but the overall circulation is fairly symmetrical.  The thunderstorms in the core of Fernanda are generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping mass away from the hurricane.

Fernanda is a small hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force only extend out about 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extend out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) is 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 9.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 34.1.  The indices indicate that Hurricane Fernanda is somewhat similar in size and strength to Hurricane Charley in 2004 when Charley was approaching the southwest coast of Florida.

Hurricane Fernanda will remain in an environment very favorable for intensification for another 24 to 48 hours.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 28.5°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Fernanda has a chance to intensify into a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale before it moves into a less favorable environment.  When a hurricane becomes as intense as Hurricane Fernanda is, an outer rainband can wrap around the eye and an eyewall replacement cycle can occur.  If an eyewall replacement cycle occurs in Hurricane Fernanda, then fluctuations in intensity may also happen.  Eventually Fernanda will move over cooler SSTs and the hurricane will start to weaken.

Hurricane Fernanda is moving south of a subtropical ridge and the ridge is steering the hurricane a little south of due west.  A general westward motion is forecast to continue during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Fernanda will continue to move farther away from Mexico.  Fernanda could approach Hawaii by the end of next week.

Fernanda Rapidly Intensifies Into a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Fernanda rapidly intensified into a hurricane on Thursday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Fernanda was located at latitude 11.2°N and longitude 116.0°W which put it about 900 miles (1450 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Fernanda was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (155 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A primary rainband wrapped around the center of circulation and an eye appeared intermittently on visible satellite images on Thursday afternoon.  The improved organization of the inner core of Fernanda allowed it to intensify rapidly into a hurricane.  The distribution of thunderstorms become more symmetrical and circulation exhibited a more circular appearance.  Thunderstorms in the inner core began to generate strong upper level divergence which pumped out mass in all directions.  The divergence of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease and the wind speeds to increase rapidly.

Hurricane Fernanda will move through an environment that will be favorable for further intensification during the next two days.  Fernanda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 29°C.  An upper level ridge northeast of Fernanda is producing easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the hurricane.  However, the speed of the upper level winds decreased on Thursday and there is less vertical wind shear.  A combination of a well organized inner core, warm SSTs and reduced vertical wind shear resulted in rapid intensification of Fernanda into a hurricane.  Rapid intensification could continue for another 24 to 36 hours and Fernanda is forecast to become a major hurricane on Friday.

A subtropical ridge to the north of Fernanda is steering the hurricane toward the west and a general westerly motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Fernanda will move farther away from Mexico.