Tag Archives: HWISI

Hurricane Barbara Starts to Weaken

Hurricane Barbara started to weaken on Wednesday when it moved over cooler water well to the east of Hawaii.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Barbara was located at latitude 14.3°N and longitude 127.5°W which put it about 1860 miles (2990 km) east of Hilo, Hawaii.  Barbara was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 170 m.p.h. (275 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 941 mb.

The circulation around Hurricane Barbara remained very well organized.  There was a circular eye at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Barbara.  Storms near the core of the circulation were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 185 miles (295 km) from the center.

Hurricane Barbara still rated at Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Barbara was 28.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 44.8.

Hurricane Barbara will gradually move into an environment less capable of supporting a strong hurricane during the next few days.  Barbara will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 26°C.  As a result, Hurricane Barbara will extract less energy from the upper ocean and it will gradually weaken.  Barbara will move closer to an upper level trough located northeast of Hawaii.  When Hurricane Barbara gets closer to the trough later this week, stronger upper level southwesterly winds will create more vertical wind shear and the hurricane will weaken more quickly.

Hurricane Barbara will move south of a subtropical ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Barbara toward the west-northwest during the next 24 to 36 hours.  The ridge is forecast to strengthen on Friday and it will steer Hurricane Barbara more toward the west when that happens.  On its anticipated track Barbara could approach Hawaii in about five days.  It will be much weaker by that time.

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Fani Makes Landfall in India

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Fani made landfall near Puri, India on Thursday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fani was located at latitude 19.4°N and longitude 85.8°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) south of Puri, India.  Fani was moving toward the north-northeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 922 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fani is a large dangerous system.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extend out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 225 miles (360 km) from the center over the Bay of Bengal.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Fani is 31.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 25.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 57.2.  Tropical Cyclone Fani has the potential to cause widespread significant damage.

Tropical Cyclone Fani will cause the greatest wind damage along the northeast coast of Odisha.  It could also produce a significant storm surge along the coast.  The surge will be highest in bays, estuaries and mouths of rivers.  Fani will drop heavy rain over northeast Odisha, West Bengal and portions of Bangladesh.  The heavy rain is likely to cause inland fresh water floods in some locations.  Wind and rain could cause damage around Kolkata (Calcutta), India.

An upper level trough over India will steer Tropical Cyclone Fani toward the northeast during the next 48 hours.  On its anticipated path Fani will pass near Bhubaneshwar, Cuttack and Baleshwar in Odisha.  Tropical Cyclone Fani could still be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it passes near those locations.  Fani will weaken steadily while it moves northeast.  It is likely to be the equivalent of a tropical storm when it passes near Kolkata.  Tropical Cyclone Fani will weaken to the equivalent of a tropical depression when it passes over Bangladesh, but it could still drop heavy rain around Dhaka.  Serious flooding could occur in Bangladesh while Fani weakens.

Dangerous Tropical Cyclone Fani Near Northeast India

Dangerous Tropical Cyclone Fani neared the coast of northeastern India on Thursday.  Fani rapidly intensified into the nearly the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fani was located at latitude 18.0°N and longitude 84.9°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) east of Visakhapatnam, India.  Fani was moving toward the north at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 918 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fani intensified rapidly during recent hours.  A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) developed at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Fani.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fani grew larger as it intensified.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 185 miles (295 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Fani was 33.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 21.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 55.0.  Tropical Cyclone Fani was capable of causing widespread significant damage.

Tropical Cyclone Fani is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge is steering Fani toward the north.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Fani is likely to make landfall near Brahmapur, India in about 12 hours.  An upper level trough over India will steer Fani toward the northeast after it makes landfall.  Tropical Cyclone Fani could pass near Puri, Bhubaneswar, Cuttack and Kolkata (Calcutta), India.

Tropical Cyclone Fani will remain in a favorable environment during the 12 hours prior to landfall.  Fani will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through an environment where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Fani will weaken after landfall.  The upper level trough over India will produce stronger southwesterly winds, which will increase the vertical wind shear after Fani makes landfall.  More wind shear and more friction over the land will cause Tropical Cyclone Fani to weaken to the equivalent of a tropical storm within 24 hours after landfall occurs.

Tropical Cyclone Fani is a dangerous tropical cyclone.  The strengthen and size of Fani will create the potential for widespread significant damage.  The counterclockwise circulation will cause the winds to blow water toward the coast along the northern Bay of Bengal.  Tropical Cyclone Fani could generate a storm surge of 15 to 20 feet (4.5 to 6.0 meters) in bays, estuaries and the mouths of rivers which act as funnels during storm surges.  Heavy rain could cause inland fresh water flooding in parts of northeastern India and Bangladesh.  The greatest threats are to the Indian states of Odisha (Orissa) and West Bengal.

Tropical Cyclone Fani Strengthens to Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Fani strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fani was located at latitude 14.1°N and longitude 83.9°E which put it about 670 miles (1080 km) south-southwest of Kolkata (Calcutta), India.  Fani was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 946 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fani strengthened on Tuesday.  A small eye emerged at the center of circulation.  The eye was surround by a ring of thunderstorms.  The storms were stronger in the western half of the ring and that was where the strongest winds were.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Fani.  The stronger bands were south and west of the center of Fani.  It appeared that a little drier air may have been pulled into the northern half of the circulation and the bands were weaker in that part of the circulation.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Fani had a moderately sized circulation.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 40 miles (65 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 150 miles (240 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Fani was 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 36.8.

Tropical Cyclone Fani will remain in an environment favorable for strong tropical cyclones during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Fani will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move near the western end of an upper level ridge and the upper level winds will not be too strong.  The major inhibiting factor will be the drier air over the northern half of the circulation.  Tropical Cyclone Fani could maintain its intensity and even strengthen during the next 24 hours if the drier air moistens over the warm water of the Bay of Bengal.

Tropical Cyclone Fani will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge on Wednesday.  Fani will move more toward the north when it rounds the end of the ridge.  An upper level trough approaching India from the west will turn Tropical Cyclone Fani toward the northeast in about 18 to 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Fani could approach the coast of Orissa state southwest of Kolkata in about 48 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Fani could bring strong winds to parts of Orissa and West Bengal.  Fani could also cause a significant storm surge along portions of the coast around the northern Bay of Bengal.  Locally heavy rain could also cause floods in Orissa and West Bengal.

Major Tropical Cyclone Kenneth Brings Strong Wind, Rain to Comoros

Major Tropical Cyclone Kenneth brought strong wind and rain to the Comoros on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kenneth was located at latitude 11.3°S and longitude 42.8°E which put it about 35 miles (55 km) north of the Comoros.  Kenneth was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Kenneth intensified rapidly on Tuesday into the equivalent of a major hurricane.  A small circular eye appeared at the center of circulation on infrared satellite images.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Kenneth.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 130 miles (215 km) from the center of circulation.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Kenneth was 20.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 31.1.  Tropical Cyclone Kenneth was capable of causing major damage.

The southern half of the eyewall of Tropical Cyclone Kenneth passed over northern Grande Comore (Njazidja).  Mitsamiouli and Mbeni were likely to have experienced winds to hurricane/typhoon force.  Strong winds may have also affected the capital, Moroni.  Major wind damage may have occurred in those areas.  Heavy rain falling on steep slopes may cause flash flooding.  Easterly winds blowing up the slopes would have enhanced rainfall and the greatest risks for flooding were on the eastern sides of the mountains.  Those easterly winds may have also generated a significant storms surge along the northeast coast of Grande Comore (Njazidja).

Tropical Cyclone Kenneth will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 18 hours.  Kenneth will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge where the winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Kenneth is likely to intensify more while it moves across the Mozambique Channel.

Tropical Cyclone Kenneth will move north of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge will steer Kenneth a little to the south of due west.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Kenneth will make landfall on the north coast of Mozambique between Ibo and Mocimboa da Praia in about 18 hours.  Kenneth is likely to be a strong tropical cyclone at the time of landfall.  It will be capable of causing major wind damage and a storm surge at the coast.  Tropical Cyclone Kenneth will also drop heavy rain when it moves inland over northern Mozambique and it could cause additional flooding in that region.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Lorna moved gradually farther away from Diego Garcia.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Lorna was located at latitude 10.3°S and longitude 84.8°E which put it about 855 miles (1380 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Lorna was moving toward the east at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Major Tropical Cyclone Joaninha Brings Wind and Rain to Rodrigues

Major Tropical Cyclone Joaninha brought wind and rain to Rodrigues on Monday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Joaninha was located at latitude 19.3°S and longitude 63.9°E which put it about 45 miles (75 km) from Rodrigues, Mauritius.  Joaninha was moving toward the southeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 946 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Joaninha was the equivalent of a major hurricane.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 180 miles (290 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Joaninha was 23.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 18.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 42.3.  Joaninha was capable of causing major damage.

The southwestern portion of the eyewall of Tropical Cyclone Joaninha was very near Rodrigues.  Winds to hurricane typhoon force were occurring in that part of the eyewall.  Winds to tropical storm force are likely to affect all of Rodrigues.  The circulation around Joaninha was somewhat asymmetrical.  Most of the stronger rainbands were occurring in the eastern half of the circulation and the heaviest rain is likely to fall east of Rodrigues.  However, heavy rain in the eyewall could cause flooding in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Joaninha will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Joaninha will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through a region where there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Joaninha could strengthen slightly while it passes by Rodrigues.

An upper level trough near Madagascar will produce northwesterly winds which will steer Tropical Cyclone Joaninha toward the southeast.  On its anticipated track Joaninha will move away from Rodrigues on Tuesday.  Conditions in Rodrigues should improve gradually as Tropical Cyclone Joaninha moves away.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, weakening Tropical Cyclone Veronica was skirting the coast of Western Australia.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Veronica was located at latitude 21.1°S and longitude 115.4°E which put it about 140 miles (230 km) northeast of Learmonth, Australia.  Veronica was moving toward the southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.  Tropical Cyclone Veronica dropped heavy rain over parts of Western Australia and flooding was occurring in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor Makes Landfall in the Northern Territory

Tropical Cyclone Trevor made landfall on the coast of the Northern Territory of Australia southeast of Port McArthur early on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Trevor was located at latitude 16.5°S and longitude 137.0°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) east-southeast of Port McArthur, Northern Territory.  Trevor was moving toward the southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.  A Tropical Cyclone Warning was in effect from Port Roper, Northern Territory to Burketown, Queensland.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor intensified into the equivalent of a major hurricane before it made landfall.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Trevor was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.6.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor was capable of causing major damage when it made landfall.  It could have generated a storm surge of up to 12 feet (4 meters at the coast).

Tropical Cyclone Trevor will continue to move southwestward and it will gradually weaken as it moves farther inland.  Trevor will also drop heavy rainfall while it moves inland.  Flood Watches have been issued for parts of the eastern Northern Territory and western Queensland.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Veronica was advancing slowly toward the coast of Western Australia.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Veronica was located at latitude 18.9°S and longitude 117.1°E.  Veronica was moving toward the south at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.  A Tropical Cyclone Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Wallal to Mardie including Port Hedland and Karratha.

The structure of Tropical Cyclone Veronica changed significantly on Friday.  A large eye with a diameter of about 40 miles (65 km) developed at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Veronica.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 150 miles (240 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Veronica is moving around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system.  The high will steer Veronica toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Veronica will make landfall on the coast of Western Australia west of Port Hedland in about 24 hours.  Veronica will be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it makes landfall and it will be capable of causing serious damage.

Tropical Cyclones Veronica and Trevor Threaten Australia

Tropical Cyclones Veronica and Trevor posed threats to Australia on Wednesday night.  Tropical Cyclone Veronica intensified very rapidly into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Wednesday off the coast of Western Australia.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Veronica was located at latitude 16.5°S and longitude 117.6°E which put it about 275 miles (445 km) north-northwest of Port Hedland, Australia.  Veronica was moving toward the south-southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 929 mb.  A Tropical Cyclone Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Pardoo to Mardie including Port Hedland and Karratha.

Tropical Cyclone Veronica intensified very rapidly during the past 24 hours.  Veronica strengthened from the equivalent of a tropical storm to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  A small pinhole eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Veronica had a large circulation.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 200 miles (320 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Veronica was 29.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 18.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 48.4.

Tropical Cyclone Veronica will remain in an environment favorable for strong tropical cyclones for several more days.  Veronica will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Veronica could strengthen into the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane during the next 24 hours.  If a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause fluctuations in the intensity of Veronica.

Tropical Cyclone Veronica will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge will steer Veronica toward the south-southwest.  Tropical Cyclone Veronica could move toward the south-southeast after it rounds the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Veronica could approach the coast of Western Australia in about three days.  Veronica could be the equivalent of a major hurricane at that time.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor moved over the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Trevor was located at latitude 13.1°S and longitude 141.1°E which put it about 55 miles (90 km) southwest of Weipa, Australia.  Trevor was moving toward the southwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minium surface pressure was 988 mb.  A Tropical Cyclone Watch was in effect for the coast from Nhulunbuy to Karumba.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Trevor was gradually reorganizing as the center moved farther into the Gulf of Carpentaria.  Trevor will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor will intensify during the next 48 hours and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane.  On its anticipated track Trevor is forecast to approach the southwest of the Gulf of Carpentaria near Port McArthur in about 48 hours.

Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclone Trevor Nears Cape York Peninsula

Rapidly intensifying Tropical Cyclone Trevor neared the Cape York Peninsula on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Trevor was located at latitude 13.0°S and longitude 144.3°E which put it about 80 miles (130 km) east of Lockhart River, Australia.  Trevor was moving toward the west-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued Tropical Cyclone Warnings for the portion of the east coast of the Cape York Peninsula from Orford Ness to Cape Flattery, from Mapoon to Pormpuraaw on the west coast of the peninsula and for inland locations between the two coasts.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor rapidly intensified into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Monday.  An eye with a diameter of 15 miles (24 km) developed at the center of circulation.  The eye was surround by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Trevor.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Trevor was relatively small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 30 miles (50 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 90 miles (145 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Trevor was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 28.8.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor will remain in an environment favorable for intensification for another 12 hours until it makes landfall.  Trevor will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor could intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane before it makes landfall.  It will take Trevor about 24 hours to cross the Cape York Peninsula.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor will weaken during that time.  Trevor will emerge over the Gulf of Carpentaria in about 36 hours and it will strengthen again after it gets back over water.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor will move around the northwestern portion of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge will steer Trevor toward the west-southwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Trevor will make landfall near or just to the south of Lockhart River in about 12 hours.    Trevor is forecast to move westward across the Cape York Peninsula.  it is likely to emerge over the Gulf of Carpentaria between Weipa and Aurukun in about 36 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor will be capable of causing major damage.  It will bring strong winds and a storm surge to the area around Lockhart River.  Trevor will drop locally heavy rain over parts of the Cape York Peninsula and flooding could occur in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor could threaten the Northern Territory of Australia later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Idai Makes Landfall in Mozambique

Strong Tropical Cyclone Idai made landfall in Mozambique very close to Beira on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Idai was located at latitude 19.4°S and longitude 34.5°E which put it about 30 miles (50 km) northwest of Beira, Mozambique.  Idai was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 958 mb.

The core of Tropical Cyclone Idai moved directly over Beira, Mozambique.  The eye moved over Beira.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) at the time of landfall.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 150 miles from the center of Tropical Cyclone Idai.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Idai was 19.2 at the time of landfall.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 33.0.  Tropical Cyclone Idai was capable of causing very serious wind damage.  Both sides of the eyewall which contained the strongest winds moved over Beira.  The relatively slow rate at which Idai was moving would have resulted in a prolonged period of strong winds, which would have increased the potential for damage.

Clockwise rotation around Tropical Cyclone Idai would have produced strong southerly winds when Idai approached Beira.  Those winds would have pushed water into the mouth of the Rio Pungoe which is on the western side of Beria.  There could have been an enhanced storm surge of 12 to 18 feet (4 to 6 meters) in that area.  Beira is one of the largest cities in Mozambique and it has a population of over half a million people.  Idai could have cause very serious damage around Beira.

Tropical Cyclone Idai will move toward the west-northwest during the next day or two.  On its anticipated track Idai will move farther inland over Mozambique and it will eventually move over Zimbabwe.  Tropical Cyclone Idai will weaken steadily as it moves inland, but it will drop heavy rain over central Mozambique and over parts of Zimbabwe.  The heavy rain could cause flooding along portions of Rio Pungoe and Rio Buzi as well as other parts of central Mozambique and Zimbabwe.