Tag Archives: India

Tropical Cyclone Gaja Makes Landfall in Southern India

Tropical Cyclone Gaja made landfall on the coast of southern India just south of Nagappattinam on Thursday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Gaja was located at latitude 10.5°N and longitude 79.7°E which put it about 10 miles (15 km) south of Nagappattinam, India.  Gaja was moving toward the west-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gaja strengthened rapidly into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon while it approached the coast of Southern India.  A small circular eye formed at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Gaja.  The circulation of Gaja was small, which allowed it to strengthen quickly before landfall.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force only extended out about 10 miles (15 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out about 65 miles (105 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Gaja produced winds strong enough to cause damage in the area near Nagappattinam.  Those winds could bring a storm surge of 5 to 8 feet (1.5 to 2.5 meters) near where the center made landfall.  The small size of Tropical Cyclone Gaja and the fact it did not intensify until it neared the coast will limit the magnitude of the storm surge.  Gaja is forecast to move westward across southern India.  Tropical Cyclone Gaja will weaken when it moves inland but it will drop locally heavy rain over Tamil Nadu, Kerala and southern Karnataka.  The heavy rain could cause flash flooding in those regions.

Tropical Cyclone Gaja will weaken while it moves across southern India.  The small size of the circulation and mountains in that area will contribute to a fairly rapid weakening.  The circulation in the lower levels could be seriously disrupted when it moves over the mountains, but the circulation in the middle levels may persist.  Some numerical models are forecasting that Tropical Cyclone Gaja could strengthen back into the equivalent of a tropical storm when it moves over the Arabian Sea.

Tropical Cyclone Gaja Moves Closer to Southern India

Tropical Cyclone Gaja moved closer to southern India and strengthened on Wednesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gaja was located at latitude 11.7°N and longitude 83.6°E which put it about 260 miles (420 km) east of Cuddalore, India.  Gaja was moving toward the southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gaja strengthened on Wednesday.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation.  Some microwave images exhibited the appearance of an eyelike feature in the lower levels.  The inner end of a rainband appeared to be wrapping around the center of Gaja.  There were several bands of stronger thunderstorms in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Gaja.  Rainbands in the eastern half of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The storms around the center of circulation were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the northeast of Gaja.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Gaja was relatively small.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out about 65 miles (105 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Gaja will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Gaja will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move southwest of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce southeasterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will restrict upper level divergence to the southeast of Gaja.  They will also cause moderate vertical wind shear, which is probably the reason why most of the stronger thunderstorms are occurring in the western half of the circulation.  The wind shear will slow intensification, but Tropical Cyclone Gaja will strengthen during the next 24 hours.  Gaja could intensify to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Gaja will move south of a ridge in the middle troposphere during the next 48 hours.  The ridge will steer Gaja on a track that is a little south of straight westward.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Gaja will approach the coast of southern India in about 24 hours.  Gaja will make landfall in Tamil Nadu between Cuddalore and Nagappattinam in a little over a day.  It could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it makes landfall.  Gaja will bring strong winds and it could cause a storm surge of 5 to 8 feet (1.5 to 2.5 metres) at the coast.  Tropical Cyclone Gaja will drop locally heavy rain over portions of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Kerala.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Gaja Forms Over Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone Gaja formed over the Bay of Bengal on Sunday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gaja was located at latitude 12.9°N and longitude 86.7°E which put it about 500 miles (805 km) east of Chennai, India.  Gaja was moving toward the west-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

An area of low pressure moving over the Bay of Bengal strengthened on Sunday and the India Meteorological Department classified the system as Tropical Cyclone Gaja.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Gaja is still organizing.  There is a distinct low level center of circulation.  A short band of thunderstorms is west and north of the center.  Several other bands of showers and thunderstorms are developing in other parts of Tropical Cyclone Gaja.  One stronger band is east of the center of circulation and another stronger band is southeast of the center.  Storms near the center are beginning to generate upper level divergence which will pump mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Gaja will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  Gaja will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move south of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  The winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Gaja will intensify and it could be nearly equivalent to a hurricane/typhoon in two or three days.

The upper level ridge will steer Tropical Cyclone Gaja in a generally west-southwesterly direction.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Gaja will approach the coast of southern India in about 72 hours.  Gaja could be nearly the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon at that time.

Elsewhere, over the South Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Alcide still was moving slowly east of the northern end of Madgascar and Tropical Cyclone Bouchra developed between Diego Garcia and Cocos Island.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alcide was located at latitude 12.3°N and longitude 51.9°E which put it about 170 miles (275 km) east of Antisiranana, Madagascar.  Alcide was moving toward the northwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

At 4:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bouchra was located at latitude 5.4°S and longitude 89.1°E which put it about 700 miles (1130 km) northwest of Cocos Island, Australia.  Bouchra was moving toward the east at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Titli Brings Wind and Rain to India

Tropical Cyclone Titli brought wind and rain to India on Wednesday night when it made landfall.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Titli was located at latitude 19.1°N and longitude 84.4°E which put it about 30 miles (50 km) southwest of Brahmapur, India.  Titli was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Titli intensified rapidly on Wednesday prior to making landfall on the coast of India near Brahmapur.  An eye developed at the center of circulation and a ring of strong thunderstorms formed around the eye.  The strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Titli.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 170 miles (275 km) from the center of circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Titli was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Index (HWISI) was 34.1.  Tropical Cyclone Titli was capable of causing regional serious damage.

Tropical Cyclone Titli will move around the western end of an upper level ridge over the Bay of Bengal.  The ridge will steer Titli toward the north during the next 24 hours and then the tropical cyclone will move toward the northeast in a day or so.  On its anticipated track Tropical   Cyclone Titli will move slowly northward in Orissa state in India on Friday.  Titli will cause wind damage and it will drop locally heavy rain over Orissa.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Titli will spin down slowly as it moves north over Orissa.

Tropical Cyclone Titli Forms Over Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone Titli formed over the Bay of Bengal on Tuesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Titli was located at latitude 15.4°N and longitude 86.3°E which put it about 265 miles (425 km) southeast of Visakhapatnam, India.  Titli was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A distinct center of circulation formed within a large cluster of thunderstorms over the Bay of Bengal and the Indian Meteorological Department designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Titli.  The circulation of Titli was still organizing.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were forming close to the center of circulation on the western side of the tropical cyclone.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were forming on the periphery of the eastern side of the circulation.  Storms near the center of Titli were starting to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Titli will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours.  Titli will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce southeasterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation, but the vertical wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Titli is forecast to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 to 36 hours.

The upper level ridge will steer Tropical Cyclone Titli slowly toward the north-northwest during the next two days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Titli will make landfall on the coast of India near Brahmapur in about 36 hours.  Titli will likely be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it makes landfall.  It will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of northeastern India.  The strong winds will produce a storm surge of 6 to 9 feet (2 to 3 meters) at the coast.  The heavy rain could cause flash flooding when Tropical Cyclone Titli moves inland.

Elsewhere over the northern Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Luban was gradually strengthening over the Arabian Sea.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Luban was located at latitude 13.5°N and longitude 59.5°E which put it about 450 miles (725 km) east-southeast of Salalah, Oman.  Luban was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Cyclone 04B Develops Over Northern Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone 04B developed over the northern Bay of Bengal on Friday.  The circulation around an area of low pressure southeast of India strengthened on Friday and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) designated the system as Tropical Cyclone 04B.  Data from a scatterometer on a satellite indicated there were winds to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) in the western part of the circulation.  The Indian Meteorological Department was classifying the low pressure system as a depression and that was why it did not have a name.

At 4:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone 04B was located at latitude 18.7°N and longitude 86.9°E which put it about 340 miles (550 km) southwest of Kolkata, India.  It was moving toward the north at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Although there was a well defined low level center of circulation, the rest of the circulation of Tropical Cyclone 04B was not particularly well organized.  There were no strong thunderstorms near the center of circulation.  The stronger thunderstorms were occurring in a rainband 80 miles (130 km) northeast of the center of circulation.  Other bands revolving around the center consisted primarily of low clouds and showers.

Tropical Cyclone 04B is moving through an environment that is only marginally favorable for intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  So, there is enough energy in the upper ocean to support intensification, but that is about the only factor favorable for intensification.  Tropical Cyclone 04B is moving underneath the western end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge is producing southeasterly winds which are blowing across the top of the circulation.  Those winds are also causing moderate vertical wind shear and the shear is probably the reason why the band of thunderstorms is displaced northeast of the center of circulation.  It also appears that the western side of the circulation of Tropical Cyclone 04B is also pulling some drier air from over India into the system.  Tropical Cyclone 04B is unlikely to intensify due to the effects of moderate wind shear and drier air.

The upper level ridge is steering Tropical Cyclone 04B toward the north.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 04B could make landfall near Kolkata in 24 to 30 hours.  The primary risk is locally heavy rain which could cause flooding.  The rain is likely to reach northeastern India a few hours before the center of circulation makes landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Ockhi Moves Closer to India

Tropical Cyclone Ockhi moved closer to India on Monday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center to Tropical Cyclone Ockhi was located at latitude 17.9°N and longitude 70.7°E which put it about 170 miles (270 km) west-southwest of Mumbai, India and about 250 miles (400 km) southwest of Surat.  Ockhi was moving toward the northeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

An upper level trough over the northern Arabian Sea was producing strong southwesterly winds which were blowing across the top of Tropical Cyclone Ockhi.  Those winds were causing significant vertical wind shear.  Microwave satellite imagery was indicating that the shear may be strong enough to push the upper part of Ockhi’s circulation to the northeast of the lower part of the tropical cyclone’s circulation.  The circulation in the middle and upper levels continued to show evidence of an eye surrounded by a ring of strong storms.  Several bands of strong storms were occurring north of the center of circulation.

The upper level trough is steering Tropical Cyclone Ockhi toward the northeast and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track Ockhi will make landfall in Gujarat along the coast of the Gulf of Khambhat within 24 hours.  Strong vertical wind shear will continue to weaken Tropical Cyclone Ockhi.  Ockhi is likely to make landfall as the equivalent of a tropical storm.  Drier air is wrapping around the southern side of the circulation.  The heavy rain will fall over parts of Gujarat before the center of circulation reaches the coast.  Locally heavy rainfall could create the potential for flash floods in some places.

Tropical Cyclone Ockhi Turns Back Toward India

Tropical Cyclone Ockhi turned back toward India on Sunday night as it moved over the eastern Arabian Sea.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ockhi was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 68.9°E which put it about 405 miles (650 km) southwest of Mumbai, India.  Ockhi was moving toward the north-northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ockhi started to weaken on Sunday.  An upper level trough over the northern Arabian Sea was producing southwesterly winds which were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  In spite of the weakening trend, the structure of Tropical Cyclone Ockhi remained well organized.  There was a circular eye at the center of Ockhi.  A ring of strong storms surrounded the eye, but the ring was broken east of the center of circulation.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were occurring north of the core of Tropical Cyclone Ockhi.  The bands in the other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of low clouds and showers.  It appeared that some drier air might be wrapping around the southern and western parts of the circulation.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center or circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 180 miles (290 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Ockhi is likely to continue to weaken.  The upper level trough will continue to produce significant vertical wind shear over Ockhi.  The wind shear and drier air will weaken Ockhi to the equivalent of a tropical storm on Monday.  Some models dissipate the circulation of Ockhi before it makes a landfall in India, while other models move a weakened Tropical Cyclone inland before it dissipates.

The trough over the northern Arabian Sea will steer tropical cyclone Ockhi toward the northeast during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Ockhi could make a landfall on the coast of India between Mumbai and Veraval in 36 to 48 hours.  Ockhi could bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the Gulf of Khambhat and surrounding land areas in Gujarat.

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Ockhi Churns West of India

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Ockhi churned over the Arabian Sea west of India on Saturday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ockhi was located at latitude 12.1°N and longitude 69.1°E which put it about 535 miles (860 km) south-southwest of Mumbai, India.  Ockhi was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ockhi intensified again on Saturday and it was the equivalent of a strong Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  There was an elliptical eye at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye, but there was a weaker area in the eastern side of the ring.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  The storms around the center of circulation were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the northeast of Tropical Cyclone Ockhi.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 160 miles (260 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Ockhi has been moving through an environment favorable for intensification, but it will move into a less favorable environment on Sunday.  Ockhi will continue to move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  So, there will be enough energy in the upper ocean to support a strong tropical cyclone.  Tropical Cyclone Ockhi could intensify a little more during the next 12 hours.  However, an upper level trough over Saudi Arabia will approach Ockhi from the west.  Southwesterly winds ahead of the trough will increase the vertical wind shear over Tropical Cyclone Ockhi and the increased shear is likely to cause the tropical cyclone to start to weaken later on Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Ockhi is moving around the western end of a ridge centered over the Bay of Bengal.  The ridge is steering Ockhi toward the northwest.  Tropical Cyclone Ockhi will turn more toward the north on Sunday when it moves around the western end of the ridge.  The upper level trough approaching Ockhi from Saudi Arabia will steer the tropical cyclone toward the northeast in about 24 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Ockhi will approach the west coast of India north of Mumbai in about 60 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Ockhi Strengthens to Hurricane Equivalent

Tropical Cyclone Ockhi strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Friday as it moved over the Arabian Sea west of India.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ockhi was located at latitude 9.4°N and longitude 71.7°E which put it about 655 miles (1055 km) south of Mumbai, India.  Ockhi was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ockhi continued to intensify on Friday and it is now the equivalent of a hurricane or typhoon.  An eye has appeared intermittently on satellite imagery.  A ring of strong storms surrounded the eye, although there have been occasional breaks in the northeastern segment of the ring.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms were occurring outside the core of the circulation.  There were more showers and thunderstorms in the western half of the circulation.  Storms near the core of Tropical Cyclone Ockhi were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the west and north of the cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Ockhi will continue to be in an environment favorable for intensification for another 24 to 48 hours.  Ockhi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level ridge east of Ockhi is producing southeasterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds may be the reason why more of the stronger rainbands are in the western half of the circulation.  The winds are also causing some vertical wind shear, but the shear is not strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Ockhi is likely to continue to intensify for another 24 to 36 hours and it could become the equivalent of a major hurricane during the weekend.

The upper level ridge is steering Tropical Cyclone Ockhi toward the west-northwest.  Ockhi will move more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the upper level ridge.  Tropical Cyclone Ockhi will approach the midlatitude westerly winds in two or three days and those winds will start to steer Ockhi more toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Ockhi could approach the west coast of India in three or four days.