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Tropical Cyclone Olga Forms Northwest of Australia

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Tropical Cyclone Olga formed northwest of Australia on Friday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Olga was located at latitude 12.95°S and longitude 120.1°E which put it about 520 miles (840 km) north of the Port Hedland, Australia. Olga was moving toward the south at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean between Indonesia and Australia strengthened on Friday night and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Olga. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Olga exhibited more organization on Friday night. A band of thunderstorms wrapped around the center of Olga’s circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center of Olga generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Olga.

Tropical Cyclone Olga will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Olga will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Olga will intensify during the next 24 hours. Olga could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Olga will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high pressure system will steer Olga slowly toward the south during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Olga will move a little closer to Western Australia. Olga is forecast to turn more toward the west later in the weekend. Tropical Cyclone Olga is forecast to have a minimal impact on Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai Redevelops South of Indonesia

Tropical Cyclone Teratai redeveloped south of Indonesia on Tuesday afternoon. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Teratai was located at latitude 12.0°S and longitude 106.4°E which put it about 380 miles (615 km) south of Jakarta, Indonesia and about 115 miles (185 km) south-southeast of Christmas Island. Teratai was moving toward the south at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

After strong upper level winds blew the top off of former Tropical Cyclone Teratai late last week, the circulation in the lower levels made an extended clockwise loop southwest of Indonesia. More thunderstorms formed west of the low level center of circulation on Monday and the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Teratai strengthened during the past 24 hours. Data from scatterometers on satellites indicated that the wind speeds increased back to tropical storm force on Tuesday. The distribution of thunderstorms was still asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Teratai’s circulation. Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Teratai consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. Teratai was a small tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move through an environment that will be mostly unfavorable for intensification during the next several days. Teratai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26.5˚C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge centered northwest of Australia. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Teratai’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear is already causing an asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms and the shear will continue to inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Teratai could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours, but if the wind shear increases Teratai is likely to weaken again.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Teratai toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move south of Christmas Island during the next several days.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai Forms Southwest of Java

Tropical Cyclone Teratai formed over the South Indian Ocean southwest of Java on Wednesday morning. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Teratai was located at latitude 9.3°S and longitude 102.2°E which put it about 375 miles (605 km) southwest of Jakarta, Indonesia. Teratai was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A distinct center of circulation formed in a small low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean southwest of Java on Wednesday morning and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Teratai. Thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation. Shorts bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Teratai. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Teratai.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move through an environment that will be only marginally favorable for intensification during the next several days. Teratai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge centered north of Australia. The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Teratai’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move into an area where drier air is sinking toward the surface of the ocean. The sinking drier air will inhibit the formation of new thunderstorms. Tropical Cyclone Teratai could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours. However, the effects of the sinking air and vertical wind shear are likely to cause Teratai to weaken later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Teratai toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move farther away from Indonesia. Teratai could move north of Cocos Island later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja Moves away from Indonesia

Tropical Cyclone Seroja moved slowly away to the south of Indonesia on Monday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja was located at latitude 11.7°S and longitude 119.8°E which put it about 460 miles (740 km) north-northwest of Broome, Australia. Seroja was moving toward the west-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

After dropping heavy rain over parts of eastern Indonesia and causing flash floods and mudslides, Tropical Cyclone Seroja moved slowly away from the area on Monday. The circulation around Seroja appeared to be a little stronger on Monday night. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around a well defined low level center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storms force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next several days. Seroja will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 30°C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge centered over northwestern Australia. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Seroja could intensify gradually during the next 48 hours. Seroja could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next several days. The wind shear will decrease later this week and Tropical Cyclone Seroja could strengthen more rapidly when that occurs.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high will Seroja toward the southwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Seroja will remain northwest of Western Australia during the next two days. An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will approach Seroja later this week. The trough could turn Tropical Cyclone Seroja toward the southeast and it could eventually threaten Western Australia.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone 27S churned south of Christmas Island. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone 27S was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 105.5°E which put it about 700 miles (1100 km) northwest of Learmonth, Australia. The tropical cyclone was moving toward the southeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja Intensifies South of Indonesia

Tropical Cyclone Seroja intensified south of Indonesia on Sunday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja was located at latitude 10.7°S and longitude 122.3°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) west-southwest of Kupang, Indonesia. Seroja was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A tropical low near West Timor intensified into Tropical Cyclone Seroja south of Indonesia on Sunday. Bands of strong thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Seroja. The strongest bands were in the northern and western parts of the circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days. Seroja will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 30°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge. The winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Seroja will continue to intensify during the next 48 hours. Seroja could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high will Seroja toward the southwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Seroja will remain northwest of Western Australia during the next two days. An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will approach Seroja later this week. The trough could turn Tropical Cyclone Seroja toward the southeast and it could eventually threaten Western Australia.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone 27S formed south of Christmas Island. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone 27S was located at latitude 15.0°S and longitude 104.8°E which put it about 330 miles (535 km) south of Christmas Island. The tropical cyclone was moving toward the south at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Low Develops Near West Timor

A tropical low developed near West Timor on Saturday. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of the tropical low was located at latitude 10.6°S and longitude 123.6°E which put it about 30 miles (50 km) west of Kupang, Indonesia. The tropical low was nearly stationary. The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

An area of low pressure near West Timor exhibited more organization on Saturday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology classified the system as a tropical low. Visible and microwave satellite images showed a distinct low level center of circulation. More thunderstorms formed near the center of the tropical low. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical low.

The tropical low will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days. The tropical low will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 30°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge. The winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. The tropical low is likely to intensify into the equivalent of a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. It could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon by early next week.

The tropical low will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours. It will remain near West Timor during that time. Thunderstorms in rainbands will drop locally heavy rain and flash floods could occur. A high pressure system over Australia will begin to steer the tropical low toward the southwest in a day or so. On its anticipated track the system will remain northwest of Western Australia during the next few days.

Tropical Cyclone Lili Forms Over Timor Sea

Tropical Cyclone Lili formed over the Timor Sea on Thursday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Lili was located at latitude 9.1°S and longitude 128.8°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) southeast of Tutuala, East Timor.  Lili was moving toward the south-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the Timor Sea exhibited more organization on Thursday and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Lili.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms began to wrap around the low level center of circulation.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms began to develop around the periphery of the circulation.  Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.   The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Lili was relatively small.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Lili will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Lili will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under the western portion of an upper level ridge.  Tropical Cyclone Lili will move through an area where the upper level winds are not too strong during the next 12 to 24 hours and there will not be a lot of vertical wind shear.  Lili could intensify during that period.  Tropical Cyclone Lili will move closer to the western end of the ridge in about 24 hours.  There are strong northerly winds blowing around the western end of the ridge and there will be more vertical wind shear.  If the shear increases, then the circulation around Lili is likely to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Lili will move north of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge is likely to steer Lili more toward the west.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Lili could reach East Timor in about 36 hours.  Lili will bring gusty winds, but heavy rain and flooding are greater risks.  An alternative forecast scenario is possible.  If the vertical wind shear is not too strong and the vertical structure of Tropical Cyclone Lili remains intact, the upper level ridge could steer Lili more toward the south.  In that case Tropical Cyclone Lili could bring rain to Western Australia.

Typhoon Tembin Nears Southern Vietnam

Typhoon Tembin moved nearer to southern Vietnam on Sunday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Typhoon Tembin was located at latitude 8.0°N and longitude 109.3°E which put it about 290 miles (470 km) southeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.  Tembin was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Typhoon Tembin weakened during the past 12 hours as it moved over the South China Sea.  An upper level ridge north of Tembin generated stronger easterly winds on Sunday which increased the vertical wind shear.  The strong upper level winds weakened the rainbands in the eastern half of the circulation of Typhoon Tembin.  Those winds also tilted the upper portion of the circulation toward the west.  The low level circulation of Typhoon Tembin remained well organized, but the storms around the center weakened.  The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands west of the core of Tembin.  Winds to typhoon force extended out about 40 miles (65 km) from the center in the northern half of the circulation and about 25 miles (40 km) in the southern half.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 155 miles (250 km) from the center.

Typhoon Tembin is likely to continue to weaken on Monday.  Typhoon Tembin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  However, the upper level ridge is likely to continue to generate strong easterly winds and the significant vertical wind shear will make it difficult for tall thunderstorms to develop around much of the circulation.  The wind shear will probably weaken Tembin to a tropical storm on Monday.

The ridge north of Tembin is steering the typhoon toward the west and a general westerly motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Tembin will pass near the southern tip of Vietnam in about 24 hours.  Tembin will likely move into the Gulf of Thailand as a tropical storm or tropical depression.

The heavy rain with Typhoon Tembin is occurring in bands west of the core of the typhoon.  So, the heavy rain will begin to fall before the center of circulation reaches places.  The heaviest rain will fall over the Mouths of the Mekong River and the part of Vietnam south of that area.  The rain could be heavy enough to cause floods in some locations.  Gusty winds could produce isolated damage as well in the southern part of Vietnam.

Tembin Strengthens to a Typhoon Over South China Sea

Tropical Storm Tembin strengthened into a typhoon on Saturday as it moved over the South China Sea.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Typhoon Tembin was located at latitude 8.2°N and longitude 113.6°E which put it about 540 miles (880 km) east of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.  Tembin was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Typhoon Tembin became much better organized on Saturday.  A primary rainband wrapped around the center of circulation and an eye became apparent on microwave satellite imagery.  Several other rainbands strengthened outside the core of Typhoon Tembin.  Storms near the core of the circulation generated strong upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the west and northeast of the typhoon.  The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease and the wind speed to increase.  Winds to typhoon force extended out about 40 miles (65 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 155 miles (250 km) from the center.

Typhoon Tembin will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Tembin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level ridge north of Tempin is producing easterly winds which are blowing toward the typhoon.  However, the easterly winds are blowing at most levels of the atmosphere and there is not a lot of vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Tembin is likely to continue to intensify on Sunday.

The subtropical ridge north of Tembin is steering the typhoon quickly toward the west.  A general motion toward the west is expected to continue.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Tembin could approach the southern part of Vietnam in about 36 hours.  Tembin has the potential to bring strong winds, heavy rain and a storm surge to the southern coast of Vietnam.

Tropical Storm Tembin Strengthens Over the Sulu Sea

Tropical Storm Tembin moved west of Mindanao and it strengthened over the Sulu Sea on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Tembin was located at latitude 8.0°N and longitude 120.8°E which put it about 200 miles (320 km) southeast of Puerto Princesa, Philippines.  Tembin was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Tropical Storm Tembin weakened when the center moved across Mindanao.  The center is back over water in the Sulu Sea and the circulation of Tembin is strengthening again.  There is a distinct low level center of circulation, but the distribution of thunderstorms is asymmetrical.  Most of the strong thunderstorms are occurring in bands in the western half of the circulation.  Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consist primarily of low clouds and showers.  The storms west of the center are generating upper level divergence which is pumping mass away to the west of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass has caused the surface pressure to decrease and the wind speeds have started to increase.

Tropical Storm Tembin will be moving through an environment that is favorable for intensification.  Tembin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level ridge north of Tropical Storm Tembin is producing easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.   Those winds are causing vertical wind shear, which is probably the reason for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.  However, the shear is not strong enough to prevent Tropical Storm Tembin from intensifying.  Tembin could strengthen into a typhoon during the next day or two while is moves over the South China Sea.

The subtropical ridge north of Tembin is steering the tropical storm toward the west.  A general motion toward the west-northwest west is forecast for the next two or three days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Tembin will move across Palawan in about 18 hours.  Tembin could reach the southern coast of Vietnam in about three days.  Tembin will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to Palawan.  Tembin could be a typhoon when it approaches southern Vietnam.

Elsewhere over the western North Pacific Ocean Tropical Depression Kai-tak is approaching the east coast of Malaysia.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Kai-tak was located at latitude 4.0°N and longitude 104.4°E which put it about 175 miles (285 km) north-northeast of Singapore.  Kai-tak was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.  Tropical Depression Kai-tak will drop locally heavy rain over portions of Malaysia, which could cause floods and mudslides.