Tag Archives: IO03

Tropical Cyclone 04B Forms over Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone 04B formed over the Bay of Bengal east of Sri Lanka. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gati (03A) was located at latitude 9.9°N and longitude 83.0°E which put it about 210 miles (340 km) east-southeast of Puducherry India and about 200 miles (320 km) east of Jaffna, Sri Lanka. It was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system east of Sri Lanka strengthened on Monday. More thunderstorms developed near the center of the low and the wind speeds increased. The distribution of thunderstorms around the low was asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of the circulation. Bands in the eastern half of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone 04B will move through an environment that is mostly favorable for intensification during the next during the next 36 hours. It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. The tropical cyclone will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge over the Bay of Bengal. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and they are probably the reason for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. The wind shear will slow the rate of intensification, but the shear will not be large enough to keep the tropical cyclone from strengthening. Tropical Cyclone 04B could intensify into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon with 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 04B will move south of a ridge of high pressure over the Bay of Bengal. The high will steer the tropical cyclone toward the west-northwest. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone 04B will pass north of Sri Lanka in about 24 hours. The tropical cyclone will approach the coast of India near Puducherry in 36 hours. It could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it reaches the southeast coast of India.

Tropical Cyclone 04B will drop locally heavy rain over northern Sri Lanka. It will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern India later this week. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Gati weakened as it moved across northeastern Somalia toward the Gulf of Aden. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gati (03A) was located at latitude 11.9°N and longitude 47.5°E which put it about 45 miles (75 km) northwest of Maydh, Somalia. Gati was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gati Intensifies Explosively near Somalia

Tropical Cyclone Gati intensified explosively near the northeast coast of Somalia during Saturday night. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gati (03A) was located at latitude 10.3°N and longitude 52.0°E which put it about 70 miles (110 km) east of Hafun, Somalia. It was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gati strengthened extremely rapidly on Saturday night. A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) developed at the center of Gati. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms around the core of Gati generated very strong upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of large amounts of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease very rapidly, which contributed to the explosive intensification.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Gati was very small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Gati. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Gati was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 5.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.1. The structure of Gati was similar to that of midget typhoons sometimes observed over the Western North Pacific Ocean.

Tropical Cyclone Gati could strengthen further during the next few hours before it makes landfall on the northeast coast of Somalia. Gati will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C. It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Gati will weaken quickly after it makes landfall in Somalia.

Tropical Cyclone Gati will move south of a high pressure system over th Arabian Peninsula. The high will steer Gati toward the west during the next 36 to 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Gati wil make landfall near Hafun, Somalia in about six hours. Gati will be capable of causing major damage around Hafun. It will drop heavy rain over parts of northeastern Somalia and flash floods could occur.

Tropical Cyclone 03A Forms East of Somalia

Tropical Cyclone 03A formed over the Arabian Sea east of Somalia on Saturday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone 03A was located at latitude 10.8°N and longitude 55.0°E which put it about 270 miles (435 km) east of Hafun, Somalia. It was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of a low pressure system east of Somalia on Saturday and it strengthened into Tropical Cyclone 03A. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone 03A will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C. The tropical cyclone will move under the southern portion of an upper level ridge over southern Asia. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Cyclone 03A is likely to strengthen during the next 24 hours in spite of the wind shear.

Tropical Cyclone 03A will move south of a high pressure system over the Arabian Peninsula. The high will steer the tropical cyclone toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 03A will pass south of Socotra Island during the next 12 hours. It will approach the coast of Somalia near Hafun in about 24 hours. The tropical cyclone will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to northeastern Somalia in about a day or so.

Tropical Cyclone Hikaa Makes Landfall on Central Coast of Oman

Tropical Cyclone Hikaa made landfall on the central coast of Oman near Duqm on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Hikaa was located at latitude 19.6°N and longitude 56.4°W which put it about 85 miles (135 km) west of Duqm, Oman.  Hikaa was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Hikaa was the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it made landfall on the central coast of Oman.  Hikaa brought wind and rain to Masirah Island before it reached the coast of Oman.  Tropical Cyclone Hikaa brought strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coast near Duqm when it made landfall.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Hikaa was small.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  The small size of Hikaa will limit the potential for serious damage to locations close to the track of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Hikaa will drop heavy rain over portions of east-central Oman.  The rain could be heavy enough to cause flash floods in some locations.  Hikaa will weaken quickly as it moves into the drier environment over central Oman.  The small circulation around Tropical Cyclone Hikaa means that it will spin down fairly quickly now that it is over land.

Tropical Cyclone Hikaa Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon East of Oman

Tropical Cyclone Hikaa rapidly intensified into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the northern Arabian Sea east of Oman on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Hikaa was located at latitude 20.2°N and longitude 61.7°E which put it about 225 miles (365 km) east of Masirah Island.  Hikaa was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975mb.

Tropical Storm Hikaa intensified from the equivalent of a minimal tropical storm into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon in 24 hours.  A small eye developed quickly at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Hikaa was very small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 15  miles (25 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Hikaa may have reached its peak intensity.  Hikaa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  So, there will be enough energy in the upper ocean to support intensification.  However, the atmospheric conditions will become less favorable.  An upper level ridge over southwestern Asia will produce easterly winds which will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  In addition, the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Hikaa will begin to draw drier air from eastern Africa into the circulation on Tuesday.  Since Hikaa is so small, the tropical cyclone could weaken quickly if the environment becomes less favorable.

The ridge over southwestern Asia will steer Tropical Cyclone Hikaa toward the west.  On its anticipated track Hikaa could approach the coast of Oman near Masirah Island in less than 18 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Hikaa will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the central coast of Oman near Masirah Island.  Heavy rain could cause isolated flash floods.

Tropical Cyclone Ockhi Moves Closer to India

Tropical Cyclone Ockhi moved closer to India on Monday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center to Tropical Cyclone Ockhi was located at latitude 17.9°N and longitude 70.7°E which put it about 170 miles (270 km) west-southwest of Mumbai, India and about 250 miles (400 km) southwest of Surat.  Ockhi was moving toward the northeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

An upper level trough over the northern Arabian Sea was producing strong southwesterly winds which were blowing across the top of Tropical Cyclone Ockhi.  Those winds were causing significant vertical wind shear.  Microwave satellite imagery was indicating that the shear may be strong enough to push the upper part of Ockhi’s circulation to the northeast of the lower part of the tropical cyclone’s circulation.  The circulation in the middle and upper levels continued to show evidence of an eye surrounded by a ring of strong storms.  Several bands of strong storms were occurring north of the center of circulation.

The upper level trough is steering Tropical Cyclone Ockhi toward the northeast and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track Ockhi will make landfall in Gujarat along the coast of the Gulf of Khambhat within 24 hours.  Strong vertical wind shear will continue to weaken Tropical Cyclone Ockhi.  Ockhi is likely to make landfall as the equivalent of a tropical storm.  Drier air is wrapping around the southern side of the circulation.  The heavy rain will fall over parts of Gujarat before the center of circulation reaches the coast.  Locally heavy rainfall could create the potential for flash floods in some places.

Tropical Cyclone Ockhi Turns Back Toward India

Tropical Cyclone Ockhi turned back toward India on Sunday night as it moved over the eastern Arabian Sea.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ockhi was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 68.9°E which put it about 405 miles (650 km) southwest of Mumbai, India.  Ockhi was moving toward the north-northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ockhi started to weaken on Sunday.  An upper level trough over the northern Arabian Sea was producing southwesterly winds which were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  In spite of the weakening trend, the structure of Tropical Cyclone Ockhi remained well organized.  There was a circular eye at the center of Ockhi.  A ring of strong storms surrounded the eye, but the ring was broken east of the center of circulation.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were occurring north of the core of Tropical Cyclone Ockhi.  The bands in the other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of low clouds and showers.  It appeared that some drier air might be wrapping around the southern and western parts of the circulation.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center or circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 180 miles (290 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Ockhi is likely to continue to weaken.  The upper level trough will continue to produce significant vertical wind shear over Ockhi.  The wind shear and drier air will weaken Ockhi to the equivalent of a tropical storm on Monday.  Some models dissipate the circulation of Ockhi before it makes a landfall in India, while other models move a weakened Tropical Cyclone inland before it dissipates.

The trough over the northern Arabian Sea will steer tropical cyclone Ockhi toward the northeast during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Ockhi could make a landfall on the coast of India between Mumbai and Veraval in 36 to 48 hours.  Ockhi could bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the Gulf of Khambhat and surrounding land areas in Gujarat.

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Ockhi Churns West of India

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Ockhi churned over the Arabian Sea west of India on Saturday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ockhi was located at latitude 12.1°N and longitude 69.1°E which put it about 535 miles (860 km) south-southwest of Mumbai, India.  Ockhi was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ockhi intensified again on Saturday and it was the equivalent of a strong Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  There was an elliptical eye at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye, but there was a weaker area in the eastern side of the ring.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  The storms around the center of circulation were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the northeast of Tropical Cyclone Ockhi.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 160 miles (260 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Ockhi has been moving through an environment favorable for intensification, but it will move into a less favorable environment on Sunday.  Ockhi will continue to move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  So, there will be enough energy in the upper ocean to support a strong tropical cyclone.  Tropical Cyclone Ockhi could intensify a little more during the next 12 hours.  However, an upper level trough over Saudi Arabia will approach Ockhi from the west.  Southwesterly winds ahead of the trough will increase the vertical wind shear over Tropical Cyclone Ockhi and the increased shear is likely to cause the tropical cyclone to start to weaken later on Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Ockhi is moving around the western end of a ridge centered over the Bay of Bengal.  The ridge is steering Ockhi toward the northwest.  Tropical Cyclone Ockhi will turn more toward the north on Sunday when it moves around the western end of the ridge.  The upper level trough approaching Ockhi from Saudi Arabia will steer the tropical cyclone toward the northeast in about 24 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Ockhi will approach the west coast of India north of Mumbai in about 60 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Ockhi Strengthens to Hurricane Equivalent

Tropical Cyclone Ockhi strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Friday as it moved over the Arabian Sea west of India.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ockhi was located at latitude 9.4°N and longitude 71.7°E which put it about 655 miles (1055 km) south of Mumbai, India.  Ockhi was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ockhi continued to intensify on Friday and it is now the equivalent of a hurricane or typhoon.  An eye has appeared intermittently on satellite imagery.  A ring of strong storms surrounded the eye, although there have been occasional breaks in the northeastern segment of the ring.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms were occurring outside the core of the circulation.  There were more showers and thunderstorms in the western half of the circulation.  Storms near the core of Tropical Cyclone Ockhi were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the west and north of the cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Ockhi will continue to be in an environment favorable for intensification for another 24 to 48 hours.  Ockhi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level ridge east of Ockhi is producing southeasterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds may be the reason why more of the stronger rainbands are in the western half of the circulation.  The winds are also causing some vertical wind shear, but the shear is not strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Ockhi is likely to continue to intensify for another 24 to 36 hours and it could become the equivalent of a major hurricane during the weekend.

The upper level ridge is steering Tropical Cyclone Ockhi toward the west-northwest.  Ockhi will move more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the upper level ridge.  Tropical Cyclone Ockhi will approach the midlatitude westerly winds in two or three days and those winds will start to steer Ockhi more toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Ockhi could approach the west coast of India in three or four days.

Tropical Cyclone Ockhi Strengthens Quickly Southwest of India

Tropical Cyclone Ockhi strengthened quickly southwest of India on Thursday.  At 7:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ockhi was located at latitude 8.0°N and longitude 76.2°E which put it about 810 miles (1305 km) south-southeast of Mumbai, India.  Ockhi was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

The core of the circulation of a tropical depression that developed near Sri Lanka on Wednesday organized quickly on Thursday.  A primary rainband wrapped most of the way around the center of circulation and an eye began to appear on some satellite imagery.  The storms in the eyewall were strongest west of the eye and weakest north of the eye.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms formed outside the core of the circulation.  Thunderstorms in the core of Ockhi generated strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the north and west of the tropical cyclone.  The divergence was allowing the surface pressure to decrease and the wind speeds to increase.

Tropical Cyclone Ockhi will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Ockhi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  Tropical Cyclone Ockhi is near the western end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge is producing southeasterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are causing some vertical wind shear, but they are also enhancing the upper level divergence to the north and west of Tropical Cyclone Ockhi.  The positive effects of enhanced divergence will exceed the negative effects of the vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Ockhi will continue to intensify and it could intensify rapidly.  Ockhi will likely become the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within the next 24 hours.

The upper level ridge is currently steering Tropical Cyclone Ockhi toward the west-northwest.  Ockhi will turn more toward the north in a day or two when it reaches the western end of the ridge.   On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Ockhi will move farther away from the coast of India during the next 24 to 48 hours.  The outer rainbands on the eastern side of Ockhi will drop locally heavy rain over portions of southern India and flash floods could occur in some places.  Tropical Cyclone Ockhi is likely to turn toward the northeast in three or four days and it could eventually make landfall in western India.