Tag Archives: IO05

Tropical Cyclone Luban Makes Landfall in Yemen

Tropical Cyclone Luban made landfall in eastern Yemen near Nishtun on Sunday.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT the center of Tropical Cyclone Luban was located at latitude 15.9°N and longitude 51.8°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) northwest of Nishtun, Yemen.  Luban was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.ph. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Luban consists of several bands of showers and thunderstorms revolving a center of circulation.  Most of the heavier rain is falling north and east of the center of circulation.  Drier air is flowing into the western part of the circulation and the showers are lighter in that part of Tropical Cyclone Luban.

Tropical Cyclone Luban was the equivalent of a tropical depression or minimal tropical storm at the time of landfall.  Luban will weaken gradually as it moves farther inland and more drier air enters the circulation.  However, rainbands in eastern half of the circulation could drop heavy rain over parts of Yemen and western Oman.  Heavy rain cold cause flash floods in some places.

Tropical Cyclone Titli Forms Over Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone Titli formed over the Bay of Bengal on Tuesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Titli was located at latitude 15.4°N and longitude 86.3°E which put it about 265 miles (425 km) southeast of Visakhapatnam, India.  Titli was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A distinct center of circulation formed within a large cluster of thunderstorms over the Bay of Bengal and the Indian Meteorological Department designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Titli.  The circulation of Titli was still organizing.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were forming close to the center of circulation on the western side of the tropical cyclone.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were forming on the periphery of the eastern side of the circulation.  Storms near the center of Titli were starting to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Titli will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours.  Titli will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce southeasterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation, but the vertical wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Titli is forecast to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 to 36 hours.

The upper level ridge will steer Tropical Cyclone Titli slowly toward the north-northwest during the next two days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Titli will make landfall on the coast of India near Brahmapur in about 36 hours.  Titli will likely be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it makes landfall.  It will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of northeastern India.  The strong winds will produce a storm surge of 6 to 9 feet (2 to 3 meters) at the coast.  The heavy rain could cause flash flooding when Tropical Cyclone Titli moves inland.

Elsewhere over the northern Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Luban was gradually strengthening over the Arabian Sea.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Luban was located at latitude 13.5°N and longitude 59.5°E which put it about 450 miles (725 km) east-southeast of Salalah, Oman.  Luban was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Luban Forms Over Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone Luban formed over the Arabian Sea on Monday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Luban was located at latitude 12.3°N and longitude 61.4°E which put it about 580 miles (935 km) east-southeast of Salalah, Oman.  Luban was moving toward the west-northwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Luban was still organizing.  The distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands west of the center of circulation.  Rainbands in the eastern half of Tropical Cyclone Luban consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  An upper level trough centered over northern India was producing easterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and they were probably the reason why the stronger thunderstorms were forming on the western side of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Luban will move through a region that is somewhat favorable for intensification.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level ridge will continue to cause some vertical wind shear, but the winds are expected to weaken during the next day or two.  Tropical Cyclone Luban is forecast to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Luban is between the upper level ridge over India and another upper level ridge over Saudi Arabia.  As a result the steering winds are weak and Luban is moving slowly toward the west-northwest.  When Tropical Cyclone Luban moves farther west, the upper ridge over Saudi Arabia will steer it in a west-northwesterly direction.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Luban could approach western Oman and eastern Yemen in four or five days.

Tropical Cyclone Vardah Nears Somalia

Tropical Cyclone Vardah neared landfall in Somalia late on Sunday.  At 7:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vardah was located at latitude 8.9°N and longitude 51.2°E which put it about 80 miles (130 km) east of Eyl, Somalia.  Vardah was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (27 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (70 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Vardah has a small but well organized circulation.  A couple of rainbands wrap tightly near the center of circulation.  The are several other thin bands of showers.  Thunderstorms near the center are generating upper level divergence.  There is a distinct low level circulation, but it only extends about 120 miles (195 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Vardah is being steering a little south of due west by a subtropical ridge north of the cyclone.  That general motion is expected to continue and Vardah could make landfall on the coast of Somalia in about 12 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Vardah could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain where the center moves into Somalia.

Tropical Cyclone Vardah Moves Closer to Somalia

Tropical Cyclone Vardah moved closer to Somalia on Saturday.  At 7:00 p.m. EST on Saturday  the center of Tropical Cyclone Vardah was located at latitude 9.3°N and longitude 56.9°E which put it about 465 miles (745 km) east of Eyl, Somalia.  Vardah was moving toward the west-southwest at 18 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (70 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Vardah has a small but well defined circulation.  Several rainbands wrap close to the center.  However, the rainbands are thin and thunderstorms are scattered along them.  It appears that the circulation is pulling in drier air from the surrounding environment.  The thunderstorms near the core of the circulation are generating some upper level divergence.

Environmental conditions around Tropical Cyclone Vardah contain both positive and negative factors.  Vardah is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  So, there is enough energy in the upper ocean to support intensification.  The winds in the upper levels are not very strong and there is little vertical wind shear.  Drier air seems to be the primary negative factor that is preventing intensification of Tropical Cyclone Vardah.  The drier air could prevent significant intensification of Vardah, but the low level circulation could be strong enough to persist for several more days.

A strong subtropical ridge north of Vardah is steering the tropical cyclone toward the west-southwest and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Vardah could approach the coast of Somalia in a little over 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Vardah is small.  It could produce gusty winds when it reaches the coast.  Isolated areas could also receive locally heavy rain.

Tropical Cyclone Vardah Reorganizes Over the Arabian Sea

After moving across southern India and weakening Tropical Cyclone Vardah began to reorganize over the eastern Arabian Sea on Thursday.  At 7:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vardah was located near latitude 11.0°N and longitude 68.0°E which put it about 1140 miles (1840 km) east of Baargaal, Somalia.  Vardah was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Vardah retained a well organized low level circulation as it moved across southern India and into the eastern Arabian Sea.  However, almost all of the showers and thunderstorms dissipated as the cyclone crossed over land.  A few showers and thunderstorms began to redevelop about 24 hours ago.  There are now several rainbands that are spiraling around the circulation and stronger thunderstorms are forming in some of those bands.  The thunderstorms are beginning to produce upper level divergence.

Tropical Cyclone Vardah will be moving through an environment that is favorable for intensification.  Vardah will be moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is not much vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Vardah should continue to redevelop during the next 24 hours.

A subtropical ridge to the north of Vardah has been steering the tropical cyclone toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Vardah will move across the Arabian Sea toward eastern Africa during the next several days.

Tropical Cyclone Vardah Moving Across Southern India

Tropical Cyclone Vardah made landfall near Chennai and moved westward across southern India on Monday.  At 8:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vardah was located at latitude 13.1°N and longitude 77.9°E which put it about 60 miles (100 km) east of Bangalore, India.  Vardah was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Vardah was the equivalent of a hurricane when it made landfall and it brought strong winds and heavy rain to the area around Chennai, India.  Vardah weakened steadily after making landfall and most of the thunderstorms have weakened.  The spiral bands still contains scattered showers, but the winds have diminished.  The low level circulation is still well organized and there is a distinct center of low pressure at the surface.

A subtropical ridge to the north of Vardah continues to steer the tropical cyclone toward the west.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Vardah is expected to move over the Arabian Sea near Mangalore in about 24 hours.  Some numerical models are suggesting that Tropical Cyclone Vardah could reorganize after the center moves back over the water.

Tropical Cyclone Vardah Nearing Landfall in India

Tropical Cyclone Vardah moved steadily toward a landfall near Chennai India on Sunday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vardah was located at latitude 13.2°N and longitude 81.1°E which put it about 60 miles (105 km) east of Chennai, India.  Vardah was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

The Indian Meteorological Department’s radar at Chennai shows that Tropical Cyclone Vardah is very well organized and symmetrical.  There is a circular eye surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  The strongest storms are west and south of the eye, and the ring is thinner east of the eye.  There are multiple bands of thunderstorms and the heaviest thunderstorms in those bands are also in the western half of the circulation.  The thunderstorms are generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping out mass to the west and north of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Vardah is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The energy from the ocean will keep Vardah from weakening before it makes landfall.  Tropical Cyclone Vardah will weaken steadily once it begins to move over southern India.

A subtropical ridge north of Vardah is steering the tropical cyclone toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Vardah will make landfall near Chennai, India in a few hours.  Vardah will continue to move west across southern India after it moves inland.

Tropical Cyclone Vardah will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the area around Chennai.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) is 12.7.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 11.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 24.0.  Those indices indicate that Tropical Cyclone Vardah is capable of causing regional minor wind damage when it makes landafall.

Vardah will also generate a storm surge along portion of the coast north of Chennai where the wind will blow the water toward the coast.  Vardah will produce locally heavy rain over Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka.  The heavy rain could produce floods and mudslides.

Tropical Cyclone Vardah Reaches Hurricane Intensity

Tropical Cyclone Vardah intensified into the equivalent of a hurricane on Saturday as it moved across the Bay of Bengal toward India.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vardah was located at latitude 13.0°N and longitude 84.8°E which put it about 290 miles (470 km) east of Chennai, India.  Vardah was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Vardah is well organized, but the distribution of thunderstorms is asymmetrical.  There is a broken ring of thunderstorms around the center of circulation.  Outside of that ring most of the thunderstorms are forming in the western half of the circulation.  It appears that an upper level ridge to the north of Vardah is producing easterly winds which are causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear seems to be the primary cause of the asymmetry of the convection.  The thunderstorms are generating upper level divergence which is pumping out mass to the west of the cyclone.

The environment around Tropical Cyclone Vardah is marginal for further intensification.  Vardah is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  However, the moderate vertical wind shear may be strong enough to inhibit further intensification.  There are some indications that the upper level winds may be getting stronger and the shear could increase.  If the shear increases, then Tropical Cyclone Vardah could start to weaken even though it is over warm water.

The same ridge that is causing the wind shear is also steering Tropical Cyclone Vardah toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Vardah could make landfall near Chennai, India in about 36 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Vardah will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to portions of southern India.  The heavy rain could cause flooding and mudslides.  Vardah will also cause a storm surge along the coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Vardah Turns Toward India and Strengthens

Tropical Cyclone Vardah turned toward India and strengthened on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vardah was located at latitude 12.5°N and longitude 88.7°E which put it about 500 miles (800 km) southeast of Visakhapatnam, India.  Vardah was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Many more thunderstorms formed around the core of Tropical Cyclone Vardah and it exhibited a more symmetrical, circular shape on Friday.  The increasing organization of the circulation include multiple spiral rainbands in the outer portions of the cyclone.  The thunderstorms near the core of Vardah generated strong upper level divergence which pumped out mass and allowed the pressure to decrease more quickly.  An increased pressure gradient force generated stronger winds.

The environment around Tropical Cyclone Vardah has become much more favorable for intensification.  An upper level ridge to the east of Vardah was causing southeasterly winds and was producing moderate vertical wind shear.  Those winds have diminished and the wind shear is much less.  Since Vardah is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C, it is efficiently extracting energy from the ocean.  Tropical Cyclone Vardah will continue to intensify during the next 24 hours and it could intensify rapidly.  Vardah is likely to become the equivalent of a hurricane on Saturday.

A subtropical ridge north of Vardah is strengthening and building toward the west.  The ridge is steering Tropical Cyclone Vardah toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Vardah could approach the coast of southeast India in two or three days.

Tropical Cyclone Vardah could bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of southeastern India in three or four days.