Tag Archives: IO06

Tropical Cyclone Pawan Near Landfall in Somalia

Tropical Cyclone Pawan neared a landfall on the coast of Somalia near Eyl on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Pawan was located at latitude 8.0°N and longitude 50.2°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) east of Eyl, Somalia.  Pawan was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Pawan strengthened on Friday as it neared the coast of Somalia.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation and in bands revolving around the center.  Storms near the center generated more upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease and the wind speed to increase.  Pawan was a relatively small tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Pawan will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over North Africa.  The high will steer Pawan toward the west during the next 12 to 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Pawan will make landfall on the coast of Somalia near Eyl during the next few hours.  Pawan will bring gusty winds, and locally heavy rain will create the potential for flash floods.  Tropical Cyclone Pawan will weaken quickly when it moves into drier air over eastern Africa.

Two Tropical Cyclones Churn over the Arabian Sea

Two tropical cyclones churned over the Arabian Sea on Tuesday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 06A was located at latitude 7.4°N and longitude 57.6°E which put it about 530 miles (855 km) east of Eyl, Somalia.  The tropical cyclone was moving toward the northeast at 1 m.p.h. (2 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 07A was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 69.1°E which put it about 450 miles (725 km) southwest of Mumbai, India.  The tropical cyclone was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone 06A exhibited more organization on Tuesday night.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation.  There were more thunderstorms in bands in the northern half of the tropical cyclone, but thunderstorms were forming in bands in the southern half of the circulation.  Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (185 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone 06A will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move near the western end of an upper level ridge centered over southern India.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear, and the wind shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Cyclone 06A will likely strengthen during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 06A is currently in an area where the steering winds are weak and it moved little on Tuesday.  A second ridge of high pressure is forecast to build north of the tropical cyclone during the next several days.  The second ridge will steer Tropical Cyclone 06A toward the west.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 06A could approach the coast of Somalia in three days.

Tropical Cyclone 07A developed more quickly on Tuesday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped part of the way around the center of circulation.  Another band of strong thunderstorms formed in the eastern half of the circulation.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the north of the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center or circulation.

Tropical Cyclone 07A will also move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  The upper level ridge centered over southern India will also produce southerly winds which will cause some vertical wind shear around Tropical Cyclone 07A.  The shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Cyclone 07A is also likely to strengthen during the next 24 hours.

The ridge over southern India will steer Tropical Cyclone 07A toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 07A will move roughly parallel to the west coast of India.

Tropical Cyclone 06A Forms over Western Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 06A formed over the western Arabian Sea on Monday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone 06A was located at latitude 6.7°N and longitude 56.1°E which put it about 420 miles (620 km) east-southeast of Eyl, Somalia.  The tropical cyclone was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone 06A was still organizing on Monday night and the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern half of the circulation.  Bands in the southern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Satellite images suggested that the upper levels of the circulation were tilted to the north of the surface circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone 06A was near the western end of an upper level ridge centered over southern India.  The ridge was producing southerly winds which were blowing toward the top of the tropical cyclone.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear,  The wind shear was causing the apparent tilt of the circulation with height and it was contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Cyclone 06A will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification.  The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level ridge will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear during the next several days.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification.  If the vertical wind shear remains moderate, Tropical Cyclone 06A could continue to intensify slowly.  However, if the wind shear increases, then the shear could be strong enough to weaken the tropical cyclone.  The forecast is for slight intensification of Tropical Cyclone 06A during the next 24 to 36 hours.

The ridge centered over southern India will steer Tropical Cyclone 06A toward the north during the next day or two.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 06A will move parallel to the coast of Somalia during the next 24 to 36 hours.  The tropical cyclone could turn toward Somalia later this week, but there is much uncertainty about the longer range forecast because of uncertainty about the future intensity of Tropical Cyclone 06A.

Tropical Cyclone Titli Brings Wind and Rain to India

Tropical Cyclone Titli brought wind and rain to India on Wednesday night when it made landfall.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Titli was located at latitude 19.1°N and longitude 84.4°E which put it about 30 miles (50 km) southwest of Brahmapur, India.  Titli was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Titli intensified rapidly on Wednesday prior to making landfall on the coast of India near Brahmapur.  An eye developed at the center of circulation and a ring of strong thunderstorms formed around the eye.  The strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Titli.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 170 miles (275 km) from the center of circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Titli was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Index (HWISI) was 34.1.  Tropical Cyclone Titli was capable of causing regional serious damage.

Tropical Cyclone Titli will move around the western end of an upper level ridge over the Bay of Bengal.  The ridge will steer Titli toward the north during the next 24 hours and then the tropical cyclone will move toward the northeast in a day or so.  On its anticipated track Tropical   Cyclone Titli will move slowly northward in Orissa state in India on Friday.  Titli will cause wind damage and it will drop locally heavy rain over Orissa.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Titli will spin down slowly as it moves north over Orissa.

Tropical Cyclone Titli Forms Over Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone Titli formed over the Bay of Bengal on Tuesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Titli was located at latitude 15.4°N and longitude 86.3°E which put it about 265 miles (425 km) southeast of Visakhapatnam, India.  Titli was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A distinct center of circulation formed within a large cluster of thunderstorms over the Bay of Bengal and the Indian Meteorological Department designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Titli.  The circulation of Titli was still organizing.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were forming close to the center of circulation on the western side of the tropical cyclone.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were forming on the periphery of the eastern side of the circulation.  Storms near the center of Titli were starting to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Titli will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours.  Titli will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce southeasterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation, but the vertical wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Titli is forecast to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 to 36 hours.

The upper level ridge will steer Tropical Cyclone Titli slowly toward the north-northwest during the next two days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Titli will make landfall on the coast of India near Brahmapur in about 36 hours.  Titli will likely be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it makes landfall.  It will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of northeastern India.  The strong winds will produce a storm surge of 6 to 9 feet (2 to 3 meters) at the coast.  The heavy rain could cause flash flooding when Tropical Cyclone Titli moves inland.

Elsewhere over the northern Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Luban was gradually strengthening over the Arabian Sea.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Luban was located at latitude 13.5°N and longitude 59.5°E which put it about 450 miles (725 km) east-southeast of Salalah, Oman.  Luban was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.