Tag Archives: Ireland

Tropical Storm Wanda Speeds Northeast

Tropical Storm Wanda sped toward the northeast over the Atlantic Ocean west of the Azores on Sunday morning. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was located at latitude 38.5°N and longitude 35.5°W which put it about 460 miles (745 km) west of the Azores. Wanda was moving toward the northeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

An upper level trough and a cold front over the central Atlantic Ocean were steering Tropical Storm Wanda quickly to the northeast on Sunday morning. The upper level trough was also producing strong southwesterly winds that were blowing across the top of Wanda’s circulation. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear and the shear was causing Tropical Storm Wanda to weaken. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in a band in the southeastern part of Wanda. Bands in the other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The strongest winds were occurring with the thunderstorms in the southeastern part of Tropical Storm Wanda. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the southeastern quadrant of Wanda. The winds in the other parts of Wanda’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

The upper level trough and the cold front will continue to steer Tropical Storm Wanda toward the northeast during the next several days. Tropical Storm Wanda will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Wanda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 20˚C. The upper level trough will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The cold front is moving faster than Tropical Storm Wanda and Wanda is likely to merge with the cold front during the next 24 hours. Strong vertical wind shear and cold water will cause Wanda to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone when it merges with the cold front. On its anticipated track Wanda could approach Ireland as an extratropical cyclone early next week.

Pablo Strengthens into a Hurricane Northeast of the Azores

Former Tropical Storm Pablo strengthened into a hurricane northeast of the Azores on Sunday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Pablo was located at latitude 42.8°N and longitude 18.3°W which put it about 535 miles (865 km) northeast of Lajes, Azores.  Pablo was moving toward the north-northeast at 32 m.p.h. (52 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

Thunderstorms around the eye of former Tropical Storm Pablo strengthened on Sunday morning and Pablo intensified into a hurricane.  The circulation around Hurricane Pablo was still small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 10 miles (15 km) from the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Pablo.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center.

Hurricane Pablo was moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature was near 18°C.  Water that cold would not normally contain enough energy to support a hurricane.  However the temperature of the air in the middle and upper troposphere is cold enough to allow for potential instability.  Convergence around the center of Hurricane Pablo generated enough rising motion to produce thunderstorms with tall, cold clouds tops around the eye at the center of the hurricane.  Enough water vapor condensed in the thunderstorms to produce a warm core which made Pablo a tropical cyclone.

Even though Hurricane Pablo is over Sea Surface Temperatures that would normal cause a hurricane to weak, Pablo could strengthen a little more during the next 12 hours.  It will move through a region where there is not a lot of vertical wind shear.  A larger low pressure system west of Pablo is likely to absorb the hurricane in a day or so.

Hurricane Pablo will move around the eastern side of the larger low pressure system.  The low will steer Pablo toward the north during the next 12 hours.  The larger low will turn Pablo toward the northwest on Monday.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Pablo is forecast to remain southwest of Ireland.

Hurricane Lorenzo Brings Wind and Rain to the Azores

Hurricane Lorenzo brought wind and rain to the Azores on Tuesday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located at latitude 39.1°N and longitude 32.7°W which put it about 85 miles (135 km) west-southwest of Flores Island, Azores.  Lorenzo was moving toward the northeast at 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for the western and central Azores including Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa and Terceira. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the eastern Azores including Sao Miguel and Santa Maria.

Although Hurricane Lorenzo moved into a more extratropical environment, it remained a large and powerful hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 390 miles (630 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Lorenzo was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 50.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 66.7.  The radius of hurricane force winds was larger in Hurricane Lorenzo than it was in Hurricane Sandy in 2012.  The overall size of Hurricane Lorenzo was similar to the size of Hurricane Sandy.

Hurricane Lorenzo will move into an extratropical environment during the next several days.  Lorenzo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is colder than 24°C.  An upper level trough over the north Atlantic Ocean will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  The colder water and strong shear will cause Hurricane Lorenzo to weaken gradually.  The cooler, more strongly sheared environment will also cause Hurricane Lorenzo to make a transition into a strong extratropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

The upper level trough will steer Hurricane Lorenzo rapidly toward the northeast during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Lorenzo will turn more toward the east later on Thursday.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Lorenzo will bring strong winds, large waves and heavy rain to the Azores on Wednesday.  Lorenzo will be capable of causing extensive serious damage.  The extratropically transitioned Hurricane Lorenzo could approach Ireland and the United Kingdom on Thursday night and Friday.

Hurricane Lorenzo Strengthens to Cat. 5 Southwest of the Azores

Hurricane Lorenzo strengthened to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located at latitude 24.2°N and longitude 44.9°W which put it about 1420 miles (2285 km) southwest of the Azores.  Lorenzo was moving toward the north at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 925 mb.

Hurricane Lorenzo strengthened to Category 5 farther east in the Atlantic Ocean than other hurricane on record.  Lorenzo appeared to complete an eyewall replacement cycle earlier on Saturday and then it start to strengthen quickly.  A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) became evident at the center of circulation.  A ring of very strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Lorenzo.

The circulation around Hurricane Lorenzo was large.  Wins to hurricane force extended out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 275 miles (445 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 21.2 and the Hurricane Wind intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 56.2.

Hurricane Lorenzo will remain in a very favorable environment for another 12 to 24 hours.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  An upper level trough will approach Lorenzo from the west later on Sunday.  The trough will produce southwesterly winds which will create more wind shear.  Hurricane Lorenzo will start to weaken when the wind shear increases.  Lorenzo will also move over cooler water on Monday, which will cause more weakening.

The upper level trough will steer Hurricane Lorenzo toward the northeast during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Lorenzo could approach the Azores on Tuesday night.  Lorenzo is likely to be a hurricane when it reaches the Azores.  Hurricane Lorenzo will eventually make a transition to a strong extratropical cyclone.  It could be near Ireland in four or five days.

Ernesto Makes Transition to Tropical Storm

Former Subtropical Storm Ernesto made a transition to a tropical storm on Thursday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located at latitude 43.0°N and longitude 41.0°W which put it about 645 miles (1035 km) east-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland.  Ernesto was moving toward the northeast at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Even though now Tropical Storm Ernesto moved over water where the Sea Surface Temperature was between 24°C and 25°C, there was enough energy in the upper ocean to cause more thunderstorms to develop.  In addition, many of the thunderstorms developed close to the center of circulation.  The inner bands of showers and thunderstorms became stronger and the bands in the outer parts of the circulation weakened.  Ernesto exhibited a structure like a tropical cyclone and the National Hurricane Center classified the system as a tropical storm in the 5:00 p.m. EDT advisory.

Tropical Storm Ernesto will move over much cooler water during the next 24 hours.  It is likely to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone when it moves over the cooler water.  Ernesto could strengthen when colder air is pulled into the western half of the circulation and a cold front forms south of the center.  The development of the cold front and upper level divergence could strengthen the pressure gradient force which would give the air a stronger push.  An upper level trough east of the U.S. is forecast to steer Ernesto in the general direction of Ireland and the United Kingdom.

Tropical Depression 19 Strengthens to Tropical Storm Rina

Tropical Depression Nineteen strengthened into Tropical Storm Rina on Monday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Rina was located at latitude 30.4°N and longitude 49.9°W which put it about 890 miles (1430 km) east of Bermuda.  Rina was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

Although an upper level low northwest of Tropical Depression Nineteen continued to produce westerly winds which caused moderate vertical wind shear, stronger thunderstorms developed east of the center of circulation.  Downdrafts in those storms were able to transport stronger winds to the surface and winds to tropical storm force were occurring at the surface.  The National Hurricane Center upgraded Tropical Depression Nineteen to Tropical Storm Rina on Monday night.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Rina is asymmetrical.  The stronger storms are occurring east of the center of circulation.  The winds to tropical storm force are occurring northeast of the center.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 60 miles to the northeast of the center of circulation.  The bands west of the center consist primarily of lower clouds and showers.  The upper level westerly winds are tilting the circulation toward the east with height.

The moderate vertical wind shear will continue to inhibit the intensification of Tropical Storm Rina.  Rina will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 25°C.  Although the water is cooler than it is in the tropical, colder air in the upper levels will make the atmosphere unstable enough to allow thunderstorms to continue to develop.  The vertical wind shear could decrease during the next 24 to 36 hours and some intensification is possible.  When Tropical Storm Rina moves farther north, it will move over colder water.

The upper level low to the northwest of Tropical Storm Rina and a ridge to the east of Rina are steering the tropical storm toward the north.  A general motion is expected to continue for another day or two.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Rina will pass between Labrador and the Azores.

Tropical Depression Nineteen Forms East of Bermuda

Tropical Depression Nineteen formed east of Bermuda on Monday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen was located at latitude 29.5°N and longitude 50.4°W which put it about 875 miles east of Bermuda.  It was moving toward the north-northeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1013 mb.

A small low pressure system has been meandering over the Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Azores.  More showers and thunderstorms formed near the center of the the low and the circulation became more circular.  Because the low pressure system developed the characteristics of a tropical cyclone, the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Nineteen on Monday morning.

The circulation of Tropical Depression Nineteen is being affected by vertical wind shear.  An upper level low located to the northwest of the system is producing easterly winds which are blowing across the top of the depression.  Those winds are producing moderate vertical wind shear shear which is tilting the upper portion of the circulation to the east.  The surface center of circulation was exposed on visible satellite images.  Most of the showers and thunderstorms were occurring to the east of the center.

Tropical Depression Nineteen is forecast to intensify into a tropical storm.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 25.5°C, which is marginally warm enough to support intensification.  The upper level low will continue to produce vertical wind shear which will inhibit intensification during the next 12 to 24 hours.  The shear is forecast to decrease on Tuesday and Tropical Depression Nineteen could strengthen into a tropical storm before it moves over colder water.

Tropical Depression Nineteen is currently in an area where the steering currents are weak.  The circulation around the upper level low to the northwest of the Tropical Depression is being deflected around an upper level ridge to the east of the depression.  Some of the flow is turning northward and the rest of the flow is turning toward the south.  The orientation of the upper low and ridge is forecast to change and the two systems are forecast to steer the depression toward the northeast later this week.  However, if the wind shear stays strong enough to prevent the circulation of the depression from growing vertically, then the winds in the lower level could steer the depression more toward the west.

Former Hurricane Ophelia Brings Strong Winds to Ireland

Former Hurricane Ophelia brought strong winds to Ireland and parts of the United Kingdom on Monday.  Although former Hurricane Ophelia had made a transition to an extratropical cyclone before it reached Ireland, it was still a very powerful storm when it moved across that region.  There were reports of several fatalities, damage and power outages across Ireland.  Met Eireann (the Irish meteorological agency) reported the following wind gusts during the passage of former Hurricane Ophelia.

At the Fastnet Lighthouse (anemometer at 200 feet [61 meters] ) there was a gust of 191 km/h (118 m.p.h.).  Sherkin Island reported a wind gust of 135 km/h (84 m.p.h.) before the power went out.  Cork airport reported a wind gust of 126 km/h (78 m.p.h.) before the power went out. Shannon airport reported a wind gust of 122 km/h (76 m.p.h.).  Roches Point reported a wind gust of 156 km/h (97 m.p.h.).  The Kinsale Platform reported a wind gust of 141 km/h (87 m.p.h.) and the Dublin airport reported a wind gust of 104 km/h (65 km/h).

Ophelia Strengthens to Major Hurricane South of the Azores

Hurricane Ophelia strengthened into a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Saturday morning as it moved south of the Azores.  That made Ophelia a major hurricane.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located at latitude 34.8°N and longitude 26.6°W which put it about 220 miles (355 km) south of the Azores.  Ophelia was moving toward the northeast at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (220 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

It is very unusual to have such a strong hurricane near the Azores, but Ophelia contains all of the elements of a major hurricane.  There is a circular eye at the center of circulation.  The eye is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds are occurring in that ring of storms.  Well formed rainbands exists in the outer portions of the circulation.  Storms in the core of Ophelia are generating upper level divergence which is pumping mass away to the northeast of the hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extend out about 40 miles (65 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 125 miles (205 km) from the center.

Hurricane Ophelia is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 25°C.  Normally, water at that temperature would be considered to be too cool to support the development of a major hurricane.  However, the temperature of the air in the upper troposphere is also cool and so the atmosphere is unstable enough to allow for the development of deep convection.  An upper level trough west of Ophelia is producing southwesterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  There are also southwesterly winds in the lower and middle levels of the atmosphere and so the vertical wind shear is not strong enough to inhibit intensification

Hurricane Ophelia will be moving over cooler water and it is likely to weaken gradually during the next several days.  When Ophelia moves over the cooler water it will make a transition to an extratropical cyclone.  The size of the circulation will increase during the transition.  Hurricane Ophelia will evolve into a large very powerful extratropical cyclone during the next several days.

The trough west of Ophelia is steering the hurricane toward the northeast.  Hurricane Ophelia is expected to turn more toward the north during the next two or three days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Ophelia will pass east of the Azores later today.  The strong extratropical cyclone that Ophelia will transition into could approach Ireland and the United Kingdom by Monday morning.  That cyclone will bring very strong winds and heavy rain to that region.

Hurricane Ophelia Moves Closer to the Azores

Hurricane Ophelia moved closer to the Azores on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located at latitude 32.3°N and longitude 31.8°W which put it about 480 miles (770 km) southwest of the Azores.  Ophelia was moving toward the east-northeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 971 mb.

Despite moving over slightly cooler water, Hurricane Ophelia maintained its structure and intensity on Friday.  There was a small circular eye at the center of circulation, although there appeared to be a break on the northwest side of the ring of thunderstorms around the eye.  Thunderstorms in the core of Ophelia were generating upper level divergence which was pumping away mass.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Ophelia.  The stronger rainbands were in the eastern half of the circulation.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center.

Hurricane Ophelia will move through an environment that is capable of supporting a strong cyclone.  Ophelia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 25°C.  Normally, that water would be too cool to support a strong hurricane.  However, the temperature in the upper levels of the atmosphere is also cool and that is keeping the atmosphere unstable enough to allow for thunderstorms to develop.  The speed of the winds in Hurricane Ophelia is likely to decrease gradually during the next several days.

When Hurricane Ophelia moves farther north, it will move into a cooler environment with stronger westerly winds in the upper levels.  A cooler environment with more vertical wind shear will cause the structure of Hurricane Ophelia change into the structure of an extratropical cyclone.  The area of stronger winds will expand and the cyclone will become much larger.

Hurricane Ophelia is being steered toward the east-northeast by westerly winds in the middle levels.  A trough will approach Hurricane Ophelia from the west.  Southwesterly winds ahead of the trough will carry Ophelia more toward the north in about 36 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Ophelia will move south of the Azores on Saturday.  Ophelia could bring gusty winds and rain to the Azores when it moves by those islands.  The strong extratropical cyclone that evolves from Hurricane Ophelia could approach Ireland and the United Kingdom on Monday.  That cyclone could bring very strong winds and heavy rain to that region.