Tag Archives: Iwo To

Typhoon Jebi Turns Toward Japan

Typhoon Jebi turned toward Japan on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Jebi was located at latitude 23.1°N and longitude 135.4°E which put it about 410 miles (665 km) west-southwest of Iwo To.  Jebi was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) and there wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 939 mb.

Typhoon Jebi was nearing the completion of an eyewall replacement cycle on Saturday night.  The original inner eyewall had mostly dissipated, although a portion of the lower part of that eyewall was evident on satellite images.  A large circular eye was present at the center of Typhoon Jebi.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Multiple bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Jebi.  Storms around the core were generating strong upper level divergence.  Winds to typhoon force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 175 miles (280 km) from the center.

Typhoon Jebi will move through an environment capable of supporting a typhoon during the next 48 hours.  Jebi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  Typhoon Jebi will move through an area where the upper level winds are relatively weak on Sunday. Jebi will move closer to an upper level trough northwest of Japan on Monday.  Stronger southwesterly winds will cause more vertical wind shear and Typhoon Jebi will start to weaken at that time.

Typhoon Jebi will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  Jebi will turn more toward the north on Sunday.  The upper level trough northwest of Japan will steer Typhoon Jebi more toward the northeast on Monday.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Jebi could approach Shikoku and Honshu in about two days.  Jebi is forecast to be a typhoon when it approaches Japan.

Typhoon Jebi Strengthens to Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Powerful Typhoon Jebi strengthened into the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Friday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Jebi was located at latitude 18.8°N and longitude 141.0°E which put it about 400 miles (645 km) south of Iwo To.  Jebi was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 210 m.p.h. (335 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 907 mb.

The circulation of Typhoon Jebi was very well organized and symmetrical.  There was a circular eye at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Numerous bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon in all directions.

Jebi is a large and powerful typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out about 65 miles (105 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 195 miles (315 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Jebi was 40.4.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 21.6 and the Hurricane Wind intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 62.0.

Typhoon Jebi may have reached its maximum intensity.  Microwave satellite imagery suggested that an inner rainband may have wrapped around the existing eye and eyewall.  If that has occurred, then an eyewall replacement cycle may have begun.  An eyewall replacement cycle will cause a typhoon to weaken when the inner eyewall, where the strongest wind are, dissipates.

Typhoon Jebi will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  Jebi will gradually turn toward the north as it moves around the end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Jebi should pass west of Iwo To.  Jebi could be approaching Japan in three days or so.

Typhoon Jebi Hits Northern Marianas

Typhoon Jebi hit the Northern Mariana Islands on Thursday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Jebi was located at latitude 17.8°N and longitude 146.2°E which put it about 35 miles (55 km) east-southeast of Pagan.  Jebi was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 940 mb.  A Typhoon Warning was in effect for Agrihan, Pagan and Alamagan.

Typhoon Jebi was very well organized.  There was a small eye at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Jebi.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.

Winds to typhoon force extended out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 185 miles (295 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Jebi was 23.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 19.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 43.0.  Those indices indicate that Typhoon Jebi was capable of causing major damage.

Typhoon Jebi will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification during the next day or so.  Jebi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Jebi is forecast to intensify during the next 24 hours.  If an outer rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause the typhoon to weaken at least temporarily.

Typhoon Jebi will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  Jebi will make a gradual turn toward the north during the next few days while it moves around the end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Jebi will move slowly away from the Northern Marianas.  Weather conditions should slowly improve when Jebi moves away.  The center of Jebi is forecast to pass south of Iwo To.  Typhoon Jebi could approach Honshu in four or five days.

Typhoon Jebi Intensifies Rapidly East of Northern Marianas

Typhoon Jebi intensified rapidly east of the Northern Marianas on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Jebi was located at latitude 17.5°N and longitude 149.8°E which put it about 270 miles (435 km) east of Pagan.  Jebi was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.  A Typhoon Warning was in effect for Agrihan, Pagan and Alamagan in the Northern Marianas.

The circulation of Typhoon Jebi was very well organized and it was symmetrical.  A small circular eye formed at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Jebi.  Storms around the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping large quantities of mass away from the typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out about 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center.

Typhoon Jebi will be moving through an environment very favorable for further intensification.  Jebi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Jebi is likely to intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Thursday.

Typhoon Jebi will move south of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific for several more days.  The ridge will steer Jebi in a general westerly direction during that time.  Typhoon Jebi will reach the western end of the ridge in about 48 hours.  Jebi will make a gradual turn toward the north when it reaches the end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Jebi will reach the northernmost Mariana Islands within 24 hours.  Jebi will be capable of causing major damage when it arrives.  Jebi is forecast to pass south of Iwo To, but it will turn toward the major islands of Japan during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Jebi Forms East of the Marianas

Tropical Storm Jebi formed east of the Marianas on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Jebi was located at latitude 15.8°N and longitude 156.6°E which put it about 745 miles (1200 km) east of Saipan.  Jebi was moving toward the northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation developed in a cluster of showers and thunderstorms east of the Northern Marianas and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Jebi.  The circulation of Jebi was still organizing.  A primary rainband wrapped around the eastern and northern sides of the center of circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing in the eastern half of the circulation.  Storms near the center started to generate upper level divergence.

Tropical Storm Jebi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Jebi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will cause some vertical wind shear.  Two upper level lows northwest and northeast of Jebi will enhance upper level divergence to the north of the tropical storm.  Tropical Storm Jebi will strengthen and it could become a typhoon later this week.

Tropical Storm Jebi will move southwest of a ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge is forecast to strengthen and it will steer Jebi in a general west-northwesterly direction during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Jebi could be near the northernmost Mariana Islands in about three days.  Jebi could be a typhoon by that time.  Jebi could be south of Iwo To by the end of the week.

Typhoon Soulik Strikes Cheju Island

Typhoon Soulik struck Cheju Island on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Soulik was located at latitude 33.0°N and longitude 125.7°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) west of Cheju Island.  Soulik was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

Typhoon Soulik had a large eye and the eastern eyewall, which was the strongest part of the circulation, moved directly over Cheju Island on Wednesday.  The island would have experienced winds to typhoon force and heavy rain.  The heavy rain could produce flash floods.  Typhoon Soulik weakened as it approached Cheju.  The circulation appeared to draw some drier air around the western and southern side of the circulation.  The heaviest rain was falling in the northern and eastern quadrants of the typhoon.  Soulik was moving over cooler water and an upper level trough over eastern Asia was causing vertical wind shear.

The upper level trough will turn Typhoon Soulik toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Soulik could pass near the southwestern tip of South Korea in about 12 hours.  Soulik could make landfall near Kunsan in about 24 hours.  The eastern side of Typhoon Soulik, which is the stronger side, will pass over much of South Korea during the next 24 hours.  Soulik will produce gusty winds and it will drop locally heavy rain.  The rain could produce flash floods on the Korean peninsula.

Elsewhere over the tropical Western North Pacific Ocean, Typhoon Cimaron moved closer to Japan.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Cimaron was located at latitude 29.4°N and longitude 135.6°E which put it about 335 miles (540 km) south of Osaka, Japan.  Cimaron was moving toward the northwest at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Typhoon Cimaron is forecast to move quickly toward Japan during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Cimaron will approach the coasts of Shikoku and Honshu between Tokushima and Tanabe in about 12 hours.  Cimaron is forecast to be a typhoon when it makes landfall in Japan.  It will bring strong winds and Cimaron will drop locally heavy rain.  Flash floods could occur, especially in regions of steeper terrain.

Typhoon Soulik Threatens South Korea, Cimaron Heads Toward Japan

Typhoon Soulik threatened South Korea on Tuesday night and Typhoon Cimaron headed toward Japan.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Soulik was located at latitude 30.8°N and longitude 127.3°E which put it about 200 miles (320 km) south-southeast of Cheju, South Korea.  Soulik was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

There was a large eye with a diameter of 65 miles (105 km) at the center of Typhoon Soulik.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surround the eye, but there were some breaks in the ring of storms.  The strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Soulik.  Winds to typhoon force extended out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 250 miles (400 km) from the center.

Typhoon Soulik will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Soulik more toward the north during the next 24 to 36 hours.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Soulik will be near Cheju Island in 18 to 24 hours.  Soulik could be near Seoul, South Korea in less than 48 hours.   Typhoon Soulik will move over cooler water when it moves northward.  Vertical wind shear will also increase as an upper level trough approaches the typhoon from the west.  Soulik is likely to be a typhoon when it approaches Cheju Island.  It will drop heavy rain over South Korea and there will be a risk for flash floods.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Cimaron was located at latitude 24.8°N and longitude 139.3°E which put it about 95 miles (150 km) west-southwest of Iwo To.  Cimaron was moving toward the northwest at 19 m.p.h. (31 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

Upper level divergence from Typhoon Soulik had less of an effect on the outflow from Typhoon Cimaron and Cimaron strengthened on Tuesday.  Typhoon Cimaron strengthened into the equivalent of a major hurricane.  Cimaron was moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge.   On its anticipated track Typhoon Cimaron could be near the coast of Shikoku and Honshu in about 36 hours.

Large Typhoon Soulik Nears Ryukyu Islands, Cimaron Brushes Northern Marianas

Large Typhoon Soulik neared the Ryukyu Islands on Monday night, while Typhoon Cimaron brushed the Northern Mariana Islands.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Soulik was located at latitude 28.0°N and longitude 131.7°E which put it about 160 miles (260 km) south-southeast of Yaku Shima, Japan.  Soulik was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (215 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

A large circular eye with a diameter of 50 miles (80 km) developed at the center of Typhoon Soulik.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in the ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Soulik.  The strongest rainbands were occurring in the eastern half of the circulation.  Winds around the core Soulik were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.

Typhoon Soulik has a large circulation.  Winds to typhoon force extend out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 230 miles (370 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Soulik was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 23.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 44.1.

The large symmetrical structure of Typhoon Soulik will allow it to maintain its intensity for a longer period than a smaller tropical cyclone.  Soulik will move through an environment during the next 24 to 36 hours that will support a strong typhoon.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through an environment where the vertical wind shear will not be too strong.

Typhoon Soulik will move around the western end of ridge centered north of Japan.  The ridge will steer Soulik toward the northwest for another 24 to 36 hours.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Soulik will move over the northern Ryukyu Islands on Tuesday.  Soulik could approach South Korea within 36 hours.

Typhoon Cimaron brushed the northernmost Mariana Islands on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Cimaron was located at latitude 20.5°N and longitude 144.5°E which put it about 90 miles (145 km) north-northwest of Agrihan.  Cimaron was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Typhoon Cimaron is forecast to be near Iwo To in about 24 hours.  Cimaron could approach Honshu within 48 hours.  Upper level divergence from Typhoon Soulik is inhibiting the divergence on the western side of Cimaron.  The effects of Soulik will reduce the potential intensification of Typhoon Cimaron, but Cimaron could strengthen slowly during the next day or two.

Typhoon Soulik Moves Toward Ryukyu Islands, Cimaron Approaches Northern Marianas

Typhoon Soulik moved toward the northern Ryukyu Islands on Sunday and Typhoon Cimaron approached the Northern Mariana Islands.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Soulik was located at latitude 25.9°N and longitude 135.8°E which put it about 450 miles (730 km) east-southeast of Yaku Shima.  Soulik was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

The structure of Typhoon Soulik changed on Sunday.  A large circular eye with a diameter or 45 miles (75 km) developed at the center of circulation.  A circular ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye.  The ring was thinner on the western side of the eye and there may have been breaks in the ring.  Several bands of thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Soulik.  Storms around the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 195 miles (315 km) from the center.

Typhoon Soulik will move through an environment that should allow it to maintain its intensity for another day or two.  Soulik will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level ridge north of Japan will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the typhoon, but the winds will not cause significant vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Soulik could weaken a little, but it is likely to maintain most of its strength for another 24 to 48 hours.

Typhoon Soulik will move around the western end of the ridge north of Japan.  The ridge will steer Soulik toward the northwest for another 36 to 48 hours.  When Soulik reaches the western end of the ridge, it will turn toward the north.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Soulik could reach the northern Ryukyu Islands in about 36 hours.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Cimaron was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 148.5°E which put it about 240 miles (390 km) east-northeast of Saipan.  Cimaron was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.  A Typhoon Warning was in effect for Agrihan, Pagan, Almagan.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Saipan and Tinian.

Typhoon Cimaron will move through an environment that could allow it to intensify during the next several days.  Cimaron will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  Upper level divergence from Typhoon Soulik could inhibit the divergence generated by Cimaron on the northern side of the circulation.  Typhoon Cimaron is likely to intensify during the next day or two,

Typhoon Cimaron will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge will steer Cimaron toward the northwest during the next two or three days.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Cimaron will move over the Northern Marianas during the next 12 to 18 hours.  Cimaron could reach Iwo To within 48 hours and it could be south of Honshu in about three days.

Tropical Storm Cimaron Prompts Warnings for Northern Marianas, Soulik Strengthens West of Iwo To

Tropical Storm Cimaron developed east of the Northern Marianas on Saturday and it prompted Typhoon Warnings for some of the islands, while Typhoon Soulik strengthened west of Iwo To.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Cimaron was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 151.6°E which put it about 420 miles (675 km) east of Saipan.  Cimaron was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.  A Typhoon Warning was in effect for Agrihan, Pagan and Almagan.

A distinct center of circulation developed in an area of thunderstorms east of the Northern Marianas on Saturday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Cimaron.  Numerous bands of showers and thunderstorms developed around the circulation of Tropical Storm Cimaron.  The rainbands west and south of the center of circulation were stronger than the bands east and north of the center.  An inner bands of thunderstorms started to wrap around the south side of the center.  Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence.

Tropical Storm Cimaron will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Cimaron will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  Tropical Storm Cimaron will move through an area where it will be near the upper level divergence from Typhoon Soulik.  Tropical Storm Cimaron is forecast to stay just southeast of the divergence from Soulik.  If it does that, Cimaron will strengthen into a typhoon during the next few days.  However, if Cimaron moves under the upper level divergence from Typhoon Soulik, then the vertical wind shear will keep Cimaron from strengthening.

Typhoon Soulik strengthened into the equivalent of a major hurricane west of Iwo To on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Soulik was located at latitude 25.2°N and longitude 138.8°E which put it about 145 miles (235 km) west-northwest of Iwo To.  Soulik was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (215 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

Typhoon Soulik is well organized.  There is a circular eye at the center of circulation.  The eye is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds are occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the core of Soulik.  Storms near the core are generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping mass away in all directions.  Winds to typhoon force extend out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 170 miles (280 km) from the center.

Typhoon Soulik will move through an area favorable for strong typhoons.  Soulik will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Soulik could maintain its intensity for another 24 to 48 hours.

Typhoon Soulik will move around the western end of a ridge in the middle troposphere.  The ridge will steer Soulik in a general northwesterly direction.  On it anticipated track Typhoon Soulik will move toward the Ryukyu Islands.  Tropical Storm Cimaron will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  On its anticipated track, Cimaron will move near the northern Marianas in 24 to 36 hours.  Tropical Storm Cimaron could approach Iwo To in about three days.