Tag Archives: Kerala

Tropical Cyclone Forms over Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 01A formed over the southeastern Arabian Sea on Friday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone 01A was located at latitude 12.4°N and longitude 73.3°E which put it about 450 miles (725 km) south of Mumbai, India, Philippines. The tropical cyclone was moving toward the northeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

An area of low pressure strengthened into a tropical cyclone over the southeastern Arabian Sea on Friday. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Cyclone 01A. Thunderstorms were also increasing in bands revolving around the center of the tropical cyclone. The strongest rainbands were in the western half of the circulation. Bands in the eastern side of the tropical cyclone were dropping locally heavy rain and producing high waves along the coasts of Kerala and Karnataka. Storms near the center of Tropical Cyclone 01A generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and east of the system. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the southern half of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northern half of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone 01A will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31°C. It will move the western portion of an upper level ridge over India and the eastern Arabian Sea. The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone 01A will intensify and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within 24 hours. Once an inner core with an eye and an eyewall develops, rapid intensification could occur.

Tropical Cyclone 01A will move around the western side of a high pressure system over India. The high will steer the tropical cyclone toward the north-northwest during the next two days. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone 01A will stay west of India during the weekend. Rainbands on the eastern side of the tropical cyclone could produce gusty winds, drop locally heavy rain and bring high waves to the west coast of India. Tropical Cyclone 01A could move over the northern Arabian Sea by the end of the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Burevi Stalls over Gulf of Mannar

Tropical Cyclone Burevi stalled over the Gulf of Mannar on Friday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Burevi was located at latitude 9.0°N and longitude 79.4°E which put it about 80 miles (130 km) east of Toothukudi, India. Burevi was nearly stationary. The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Burevi stalled over the Gulf of Mannar between Sri Lanka and the southern tip of India on Friday. Although the center of Burevi was over water, the tropical cyclone weakened since some of the circulation passed over Sri Lanka or southern India. The parts of the circulation that were over land experienced increased friction and were unable to extract as much energy from the surface. The wind speeds around Tropical Cyclone Burevi decreased gradually as a result of more friction and less available energy.

Tropical Cyclone Burevi dropped locally heavy rain over parts of southern Tamil Nadu and Kerala in India. Persistent rain fell in some locations because Burevi stalled. If the rain continues to fall over the same locations, then flash floods are likely to occur.

A high pressure system over India could start to push Tropical Cyclone Burevi toward the west during the weekend. Burevi will weaken further if the center moves across southern India. Tropical Cyclone Burevi could strengthen slowly next week, if the circulation is still relatively intact when it reaches the Arabian Sea.

Tropical Cyclone Burevi Rains on Sri Lanka and Southern India

Tropical Cyclone Burevi dropped rain on northern Sri Lanka and southern India on Wednesday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Burevi was located at latitude 9.1°N and longitude 80.4°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) south-southeast of Jaffna, Sri Lanka. Burevi was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Burevi made landfall on the coast of Sri Lanka north of Trincomalee on Wednesday. The center moved westward across northern Sri Lanka after it made landfall. Bands of showers and thunderstorms in the northern and western parts of Burevi dropped rain over northern Sri Lanka, southern Tamil Nadu and southern Kerala. Prolonged rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Burevi could weaken during the next few hours while the center is over northern Sri Lanka. The center of Burevi will move over the Gulf of Mannar in a few hours. The center of Tropical Cyclone Burevi could make another landfall on the coast of southern India near Thoothukudi in about 18 hours. Burevi will move across the southernmost parts of Tamil Nadu and Kerala. Tropical Cyclone Burevi could move over the Arabian Sea in about 36 hours. Burevi could slowly strengthen when it moves over the Arabian Sea.

Tropical Cyclone Burevi Strengthens East of Sri Lanka

Tropical Cyclone Burevi strengthened over the Bay of Bengal east of Sri Lanka on Tuesday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Burevi was located at latitude 8.0°N and longitude 84.4°E which put it about 220 miles (350 km) east of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka. Burevi was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (110 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A former tropical depression over the Bay of Bengal east of Sri Lanka strengthened into Tropical Cyclone Burevi on Tuesday. More thunderstorms formed close to the center of circulation. More thunderstorms also formed in bands revolving around the center of Burevi. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles from the center of Tropical Cyclone Burevi.

Tropical Cyclone Burevi will move through a region favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Burevi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move under the eastern end of an upper level ridge centered over India. The upper winds will be weaker during the next day or so and there will be less vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Burevi will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Burevi will move south of a high pressure system over India and the Bay of Bengal. The high will steer Burevi toward the west-northwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Burevi will approach northern Sri Lanka in about 24 hours. Burevi will bring gusty winds to the northeast coast of Sri Lanka and the coastal waters around southern India. Tropical Cyclone Burevi will drop heavy rain over parts of Sri Lanka and southern India. Flash floods could occur in portions of Sri Lanka, southern Tamil Nadu and southern Kerala.

Tropical Cyclone Gaja Makes Landfall in Southern India

Tropical Cyclone Gaja made landfall on the coast of southern India just south of Nagappattinam on Thursday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Gaja was located at latitude 10.5°N and longitude 79.7°E which put it about 10 miles (15 km) south of Nagappattinam, India.  Gaja was moving toward the west-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gaja strengthened rapidly into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon while it approached the coast of Southern India.  A small circular eye formed at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Gaja.  The circulation of Gaja was small, which allowed it to strengthen quickly before landfall.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force only extended out about 10 miles (15 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out about 65 miles (105 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Gaja produced winds strong enough to cause damage in the area near Nagappattinam.  Those winds could bring a storm surge of 5 to 8 feet (1.5 to 2.5 meters) near where the center made landfall.  The small size of Tropical Cyclone Gaja and the fact it did not intensify until it neared the coast will limit the magnitude of the storm surge.  Gaja is forecast to move westward across southern India.  Tropical Cyclone Gaja will weaken when it moves inland but it will drop locally heavy rain over Tamil Nadu, Kerala and southern Karnataka.  The heavy rain could cause flash flooding in those regions.

Tropical Cyclone Gaja will weaken while it moves across southern India.  The small size of the circulation and mountains in that area will contribute to a fairly rapid weakening.  The circulation in the lower levels could be seriously disrupted when it moves over the mountains, but the circulation in the middle levels may persist.  Some numerical models are forecasting that Tropical Cyclone Gaja could strengthen back into the equivalent of a tropical storm when it moves over the Arabian Sea.

Tropical Cyclone Gaja Moves Closer to Southern India

Tropical Cyclone Gaja moved closer to southern India and strengthened on Wednesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gaja was located at latitude 11.7°N and longitude 83.6°E which put it about 260 miles (420 km) east of Cuddalore, India.  Gaja was moving toward the southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gaja strengthened on Wednesday.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation.  Some microwave images exhibited the appearance of an eyelike feature in the lower levels.  The inner end of a rainband appeared to be wrapping around the center of Gaja.  There were several bands of stronger thunderstorms in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Gaja.  Rainbands in the eastern half of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The storms around the center of circulation were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the northeast of Gaja.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Gaja was relatively small.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out about 65 miles (105 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Gaja will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Gaja will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move southwest of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce southeasterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will restrict upper level divergence to the southeast of Gaja.  They will also cause moderate vertical wind shear, which is probably the reason why most of the stronger thunderstorms are occurring in the western half of the circulation.  The wind shear will slow intensification, but Tropical Cyclone Gaja will strengthen during the next 24 hours.  Gaja could intensify to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Gaja will move south of a ridge in the middle troposphere during the next 48 hours.  The ridge will steer Gaja on a track that is a little south of straight westward.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Gaja will approach the coast of southern India in about 24 hours.  Gaja will make landfall in Tamil Nadu between Cuddalore and Nagappattinam in a little over a day.  It could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it makes landfall.  Gaja will bring strong winds and it could cause a storm surge of 5 to 8 feet (1.5 to 2.5 metres) at the coast.  Tropical Cyclone Gaja will drop locally heavy rain over portions of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Kerala.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.