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Major Hurricane Ian Hits Western Cuba

Hurricane Ian rapidly intensified to a major hurricane before it hit western Cuba on Tuesday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Ian was located at latitude 22.6°N and longitude 83.6°W which put it about 10 miles (15 km) north-northeast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba. Ian was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 950 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to Anclote River, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included Tampa Bay. Hurricane Warnings were in effect for the Cuban provinces of Isla Juventud, Pinar del Rio and Artemisa. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Suwannee River, Florida. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Lower Florida Keys from Channel 5e Bridge to Key West including the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Bonita Beach, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropcial Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Suwannee River, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line, Florida. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque and Matanzas. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Suwannee River to Indian Pass, Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet, Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Volusia/Brevard County Line, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

Hurricane Ian rapidly intensified to a major hurricane before making landfall in western Cuba on Tuesday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) was at the center of Ian’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Ian. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away form the hurricane in all directions. The removal of large quantities of mass was allowing the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Hurricane Ian’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 23.6 The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 35.1. Hurricane Ian was very similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey from 2017 and Hurricane Delta from 2020. Hurricane Ian was capable of causing regional major damage.

Hurricane Ian is not likely to spend enough time over western Cuba for Ian to weaken significantly. After the core of Hurricane Ian moves north of Cuba, Ian will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Ian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Ian is likely to intensify to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale by Wednesday. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ian’s circulation on Wednesday. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Hurricane Ian is likely to start to weaken slowly when the vertical wind shear increases.

Hurricane Ian will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ian toward the north during the next 18 hours. The upper level trough will steer Hurricane Ian more toward the north-northeast on Wednesday. On its anticipated track Hurricane Ian will move away from western Cuba. Weather conditions should gradually improve over western Cuba as Ian moves farther away. Hurricane Ian will be south-southwest of Tampa, Florida on Wednesday morning. The winds steering Ian could weaken later on Wednesday. Hurricane Ian could make landfall just south of Tampa, Florida on Wednesday evening. Ian could move very slowly inland over Central Florida on Thursday.

Hurricane Ian is likely to bring a prolonged period of strong gusty winds to the area around Tampa and St. Petersburg and to Central Florida. Ian will be capable of causing major damage. A prolonged period of strong winds could cause widespread electricity outages. Hurricane Ian will move slowly inland and 10 to 20 inches of rain could fall in some locations. Extensive fresh water flooding could occur in Central Florida. A storm surge of 5 to 10 feet (1.5 to 3 meters) could occur in parts of Tampa Bay. Storm surges will also occur along the coast of Southwest Florida.

Hurricane Ian Rapidly Intensifies to Cat. 2

Hurricane Ian rapidly intensified to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale south of Cuba on Monday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Ian was located at latitude 20.3°N and longitude 83.2°W which put it about 155 miles (250 km) southeast of the western tip of Cuba. Ian was moving toward the north-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Englewood to Anclote River, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included Tampa Bay. Hurricane Warnings were in effect for the Cuban provinces of Isla Juventud, Pinar del Rio and Artemisa. Hurricane Watches were in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Suwannee River, Florida and from Englewood to Bonita Beach, Florida. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to Key West including the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Englewood, Florida. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque and Matanzas. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to Channel 5 Bridge. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Suwannee River to Indian Pass, Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Jupiter Inlet, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Lake Okeechobee.

Hurricane Ian rapidly intensified to Category 2 over the northwestern Caribbean Sea south of Cuba on Monday afternoon. A circular eye with a diameter of 13 miles (20 km) formed at the center of Ian’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a nearly complete ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Ian. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away form the hurricane in all directions. The removal of large quantities of mass was allowing the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Hurricane Ian got bigger on Monday afternoon as Ian got stronger. Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Ian’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 16.5 The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.1. Hurricane Ian was capable of causing regional serious damage.

Hurricane Ian will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Ian is likely to intensify rapidly during the next 24 hours. Ian is likely to intensify to a major hurricane during the next 18 hours. Hurricane Ian could intensify to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale by Wednesday.

Hurricane Ian will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ian toward the north-northwest during the next 12 hours. Ian will move toward the north when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system. On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Ian will be near western Cuba on Tuesday morning. Hurricane Ian could be a major hurricane when it approaches western Cuba. Ian will be southwest of Tampa, Florida on Wednesday afternoon.

Hurricane Ian will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to western Cuba. Ian will be capable of causing regional major damage in western Cuba. Widespread outages of electricity are likely. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

The steering currents could weaken on Wednesday. If the steering currents weaken, the center of Hurricane Ian could stall just west or northwest of the area around Tampa and St. Petersburg. The strongest winds will be in the eastern side of Ian’s circulation. The area around Tampa and St. Petersburg could experience a prolonged period of strong winds. When the center of Ian is west of Tampa, the winds will blow from the south in the area around Tampa. Southerly winds will push water into Tampa Bay and a storm surge of 5 to 10 feet (1.5 to 3.0 meters) is possible. If Hurricane Ian stalls, some locations in west central Florida could receive 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm) of rain. Heavy rain is likely to cause fresh water flooding.

Ian Intensifies to a Hurricane, Watch Issued for Tampa

Former Tropical Storm Ian intensified to a hurricane during Sunday night and a Hurricane Watch was issued for the area around Tampa, Florida. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Ian was located at latitude 18.7°N and longitude 82.4°W which put it about 90 miles (145 km) west-southwest of Grand Cayman. Ian was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Grand Cayman and for the Cuban provinces of Isla Juventud, Pinar del Rio and Artemisa. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Englewood, Florida. The Hurricane Watch included Tampa Bay. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to Key West including the Dry Tortugas. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque and Matanzas. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Englewood to Chokoloskee, Florida. Tropical Storm Watches were also in effect for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.

Former Tropical Storm Ian rapidly intensified to a hurricane during Sunday night. An eye was forming at the center of Ian’s circulation. The developing eye was surrounded by ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Ian. Storms near the center of circulation generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass was allowing the surface pressure to decrease rapidly. Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Hurricane Ian. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Ian’ circulation.

Hurricane Ian will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Ian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Ian is likely to intensify rapidly during the next 36 hours. Ian is likely to intensify to a major hurricane during the next 24 hours. Hurricane Ian could intensify to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale by Wednesday.

Hurricane Ian will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ian toward the northwest during the next 12 hours. Ian will move toward the north when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system. On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Ian will pass west of Grand Cayman on Monday afternoon. Ian could be near western Cuba on Tuesday morning. Hurricane Ian could be a major hurricane when it approaches western Cuba. Ian could be southwest of Tampa, Florida on Wednesday afternoon.

Hurricane Ian will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to western Cuba. Ian will be capable of causing regional major damage in western Cuba. Widespread outages of electricity are likely. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

The steering currents could weaken on Wednesday. If the steering currents weaken, the the area around Tampa and St. Petersburg could experience a prolonged period of strong winds even if the center of Hurricane Ian moves west of Tampa. When the center of Ian is west of Tampa, the winds will blow from the south in the area around Tampa. Southerly winds will push water into Tampa Bay and a storm surge of 5 to 8 feet (1.5 to 2.5 meters) is possible.

Tropical Storm Ian Strengthens South of Grand Cayman

Tropical Storm Ian strengthened south of Grand Cayman on Sunday evening. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 81.4°W which put it about 140 miles (225 km) south of Grand Cayman. Ian was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Grand Cayman and for the Cuban provinces of Isla Juventud, Pinar del Rio and Artemisa. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to Key West including the Dry Tortugas. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque and Matanzas. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Englewood to Chokoloskee, Florida. Tropical Storm Watches were also in effect for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.

Tropical Storm Ian began to intensify quickly on Sunday evening. Microwave satellite images indicated that an eye was forming at the center of Ian’s circulation. The developing eye was surrounded by broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Ian. Storms near the center of circulation generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass was allowing the surface pressure to decrease rapidly. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Ian’ circulation.

Tropical Storm Ian will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Ian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Ian is likely to intensify rapidly during the next 36 hours. Ian is likely to strengthen to a hurricane during the next 12 hours. Ian is likely to intensify to a major hurricane during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Ian will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ian toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. Ian will move toward the north when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Ian will pass west of Grand Cayman on Monday. Ian could be near western Cuba on Tuesday morning. Ian could be a major hurricane when it approaches western Cuba. Ian could be southwest of Tampa, Florida on Wednesday afternoon.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Drops Heavy Rain on South Florida

Potential Tropical Cyclone One dropped heavy rain on South Florida during Friday night and Saturday morning. There were reports of up to 10 inches of rain falling on locations in the area around Miami. The heavy rain caused urban and street flooding in some locations. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone One was located at latitude 27.0°N and longitude 82.2°W which put it about 45 miles (75 km) south-southwest of Ft. Myers, Florida. Potential Tropical Cyclone One was moving toward the northeast at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the coast of Florida from Bonita Beach on the west coast to the Volusia/Brevard County Line on the east coast and for all of the Florida Keys. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas and the Cuban provinces of Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas and the Isle of Youth.

Thunderstorms on the eastern side of Potential Tropical Cyclone One dropped heavy rain on parts of South Florida during Friday night and Saturday morning. A rain gauge at Biscayne Park measured 10.98 inches (27.9 cm) of rain. Media reports showed urban and street flooding in some locations.

The circulation around Potential Tropical Cyclone One remained poorly organized on Saturday morning. There was a broad area of low pressure over South Florida and the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The center of low pressure was located south-southwest of Naples, Florida. There was another circulation center located west-southwest of the Florida Keys. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring over South Florida and over the Northwestern Bahamas. The western half of Potential Tropical Cyclone One contained mainly showers and lower clouds. The strongest winds were occurring in thunderstorms in the eastern half of the low pressure system.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification when it moves over the Atlantic Ocean east of Florida on Sunday. Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico and an upper level ridge over the Northwest Caribbean Sea and western Atlantic Ocean will interact to produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical shear will somewhat inhibit intensification. However, the upper level ridge will also enhance the upper level divergence over Potential Tropical Cyclone One. More upper level divergence would cause the surface pressure to decrease. Potential Tropical Cyclone One could strengthen to a tropical storm when it moves over the warm water in the Gulf Stream on Sunday.

The upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico and the upper level ridge over the Northwest Caribbean Sea and western Atlantic Ocean will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone One toward the northeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move across South Florida on Saturday. Potential Tropical Cyclone One will bring continue to drop heavy rain on parts of South Florida and the Northwestern Bahamas during Saturday. More heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Watch Issued for Florida for Tropical Storm Elsa

A Hurricane Watch was issued for a portion of the west coast of Florida because of Tropical Storm Elsa. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 24.1°N and longitude 82.4°W which put it about 50 miles (80 km) southwest of Key West, Florida. Elsa was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Egmont Key to Steinhatchee River, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key to the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Ochlockonee River, Florida. That warning included Naples, Ft. Myers, Tampa, St. Petersburg and Tampa Bay. Tropical Storm Warnings remained in effect for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana and Artemisa. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the St. Marys River, Georgia to the South Santee River, South Carolina.

The center of Tropical Storm Elsa was southwest of Key West, Florida on Tuesday morning. The National Weather Service office in Key West reported a wind gust of 47 m.p.h. (76 km/h). The distribution of thunderstorms around Elsa continued to be asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Elsa. Bands on the western side of the storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center or Elsa generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge. The ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Elsa. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear that will inhibit intensification. However, the southwesterly winds may also increase upper level divergence to the northeast of Elsa. Additional upper level divergence could cause the surface pressure to decrease on Tuesday. Tropical Storm Elsa could intensify on Tuesday and there is a chance that Elsa could strengthen to a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move around the western end of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next several days. The high will steer Elsa toward the north on Tuesday. Tropical Storm Elsa will turn toward the northeast on Wednesday when it reaches the westerly winds in the middle latitudes. On its anticipated track the center of Elsa will pass west of the Key West on Tuesday morning. The center of Tropical Storm Elsa could pass west of Tampa on Tuesday night. The stronger winds and heavy rain will occur on the eastern side of Elsa. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Winds pushing water toward the coast could cause a storm surge of up to six feet (two meters) in Tampa Bay. Tropical Storm Elsa could cause a storm surge of 2 to 5 feet (0.6 to 1.6 m) in the Florida Keys and along the west coast of Florida. A higher storm surge could occur near where the center of Elsa makes landfall. Gusty winds could cause power outages in the Florida Keys and on the Florida peninsula. Elsa will continue to drop heavy rain over parts of Cuba as rainbands on the southern side of the circulation move across the regions

Tropical Storm Elsa Crosses Cuba

Tropical Storm Elsa moved across Cuba during Monday afternoon and evening. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 23.5°N and longitude 82.3°W which put it about 80 miles (130 km) south-southwest of Key West, Florida. Elsa was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key to the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Ochlockonee River, Florida. That warning included Naples, Ft. Myers, Tampa, St. Petersburg and Tampa Bay. Tropical Storm Warnings remained in effect for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana and Artemisa. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida.

The center of Tropical Storm Elsa moved across western Cuba during Monday afternoon and evening. The center passed just to the east of Havana before it moved over water north of Cuba. Tropical Storm Elsa continued to exhibit an organized circulation on satellite and radar imagery even after it spent half a day over land. A reconnaissance plane found sustained winds of 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) over water north of Cuba. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern and northern sides of the center of Elsa. Strong thunderstorms were occurring in bands near south Florida and south of Cuba. Storms near the center of Tropical Storm Elsa generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge. The ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Elsa. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear that will inhibit intensification. However, the southwesterly winds may also increase upper level divergence to the northeast of Elsa. Tropical Storm Elsa could intensify on Tuesday and there is a chance that Elsa could strengthen to a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move around the western end of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next several days. The high will steer Elsa toward the north-northwest during the next few hours. Elsa will move more toward the north on Tuesday. On its anticipated track the center of Elsa will pass west of the Florida Keys on Tuesday morning. The center of Tropical Storm Elsa could pass west of Tampa on Tuesday night. The stronger winds and heavy rain will occur on the eastern side of Elsa. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Winds pushing water toward the coast could cause a storm surge of up to six feet (two meters) in Tampa Bay. Tropical Storm Elsa could cause a storm surge of 2 to 5 feet (0.6 to 1.6 m) in the Florida Keys and along the west coast of Florida. A higher storm surge could occur near where the center of Elsa makes landfall. Gusty winds could cause power outages in the Florida Keys and on the Florida peninsula. Elsa will continue to drop heavy rain over parts of Cuba as rainbands on the southern side of the circulation move across the regions

Tropical Storm Eta Drops Heavy Rain on South Florida

Tropical Storm Eta dropped heavy rain on parts of South Florida on Sunday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located at latitude 24.6°N and longitude 80.5°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km) east of Marathon, Florida. Eta was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Brevard/Volusia County Line to Englewood, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Andros Island, the Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island and New Providence. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Englewood to Anna Maria Island, Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Eta weakened when it moved across Cuba on Sunday morning. Drier air wrapping around the southern side of an upper level low over the northwestern Caribbean Sea was pulled into the core of Tropical Storm Eta and the thunderstorms near the core weakened. Even though the inner core of Eta was weaker, the tropical storm still had a well developed low level circulation. Stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands north and east of the center of Tropical Storm Eta. Bands south and west of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The asymmetric distribution of thunderstorms and the lack of thunderstorms in the core of Tropical Storm Eta was also affecting the wind pattern. Low pressure at the center of Eta and a strong high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean generated a strong pressure gradient northeast of the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 300 miles (485 km) to the northeast of the center of Tropical Storm Eta. Several stations along the southeast coast of Florida were reporting winds to tropical storm force. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 mile (240 km) northwest and southeast of the center of Eta. Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 40 miles (65 km) in the southwestern quadrant of Eta.

Tropical Storm Eta will move through an environment more favorable for intensification during the next several days. Eta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. The upper level low over the northwestern Caribbean Sea will produce easterly winds which blow toward the top of Eta’s circulation on Monday. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear, but the shear will slowly decrease. Tropical Storm Eta could move over the Loop Current when it moves west of the Florida Keys. The Sea Surface Temperature of the water in the Loop Current is near 29°C. Eta is likely to strengthen to a hurricane when it moves over the Loop Current.

Counterclockwise rotation around the upper low over the northwestern Caribbean Sea will steer Tropical Storm Eta toward the west during the next 12 hours. Eta will move more toward the southwest on Monday night. Eta could stall for a period on Tuesday. An upper level trough over the western U.S. will move toward the Gulf of Mexico. The upper level trough will start to pull Eta toward the north later in the week. Eta could move toward the west coast of Florida on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Eta will move across the Lower Florida Keys during the next 12 hours. Eta will produce gusty winds over Keys on Monday. Those winds could cause a storm surge of up to 4 feet (1.3 meters). Bands revolving around the northern side of Tropical Storm Eta will continue to drop heavy rain over parts of South Florida. Urban flooding will occur in some locations and Flash Flood Watches are in effect for South Florida.

Tropical Storm Laura Prompts Hurricane Watch for Northwest Gulf Coast

The potential threat from Tropical Storm Laura prompted the issuance of a Hurricane Watch for a portion of the northwest Gulf Coast on Monday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located at latitude 21.7°N and longitude 82.2°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km) east of the Isle of Youth, Cuba.  Laura was moving toward the west-northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Port Bolivar, Texas to Morgan CIty, Louisiana.  A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Morgan City to the Mouth of the Mississippi River.  A Tropical Storm Warning remained in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West and the Dry Tortugas.  Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Carla, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio and Isle of Youth.

The appearance of Tropical Storm Laura did not change much on Monday afternoon.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of the circulation.  bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center on the eastern side of Laura.  Winds were blowing at less than tropical storm force in the western half of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Laura will move near Cuba for another 12 to 18 hours.  So, the flow of air across Cuba is likely to continue to disrupt the northern half of the circulation during the time period.  When Laura moves over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday , it will move into an environment favorable for intensification.  Tropical Storm Laura will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move into an area where the upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Laura will intensify into a hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico and it could strengthen into a major hurricane.

Tropical Storm Laura will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Laura toward the west-northwest during the next 12 to 24hours.  Laura will move more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the high.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Laura could make landfall on the northwest coast of the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night.  Laura could be a major hurricane when it makes landfall.

Elsewhere,  the center of Tropical Storm Marco was very close to the Mouth of the Mississippi River.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Marco was located at latitude 29.0°N and longitude 88.9°W which put it about 15 miles (25 km) east-southeast of the Mouth of the Mississippi River.  Marco was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.  All coastal watches and warnings for Tropical Storm Marco have been discontinued.

Marco Strengthens to a Hurricane, Laura Drenches Hispaniola

Former Tropical Storm Marco strengthened into a hurricane on Sunday over the Gulf of Mexico while Tropical Storm Laura dropped drenching rain on Hispaniola.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Marco was located at latitude 25.3°N and longitude 87.4°W which put it about 280 miles (450 km) south-southeast of the Mouth of the Mississippi River.  Marco was moving toward the north-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River, Mississippi.  Hurricane Watches were in effect for the portion of the coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana to Morgan City and for New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border.

Former Tropical Storm Marco strengthened into a hurricane on Sunday.  A small eye developed at the center of circulation.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Marco.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the northeast of the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Marco was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center.

Hurricane Marco will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours.  Marco will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level trough over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Hurricane Marco.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent Marco from strengthening during the next 18 hours.

The upper level trough and a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean will steer Hurricane Marco toward the north-northwest during the next day or so.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Marco will approach southeast Louisiana on Monday.  Marco will bring gusty winds and drop locally heavy rain over southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Laura dropped heavy rain on the Dominican Republic and Haiti.  There were reports of flash floods.  At 2:00 pm. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located at latitude 19.4°N and longitude 74.3°W which put it about 80 miles (130 km) southeast of Guantanamo, Cuba.  Laura was moving toward the west-northwest at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portion of the northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Samana to the border with Haiti and for the entire coast of Haiti.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Turks and Caicos, the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, and the Ragged Islands.  Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Carla, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Florida Keys to the Isle of Youth.  Tropical Storm Watches were also in effect for the Central Bahamas and Andros Island.