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Tropical Storm Watches Issued for Jamaica, Haiti, Eastern Cuba and Southeastern Bahamas

The potential risk posed by a low pressure system over the western Caribbean Sea prompted the issuance of Tropical Storm Watches for Jamaica, Haiti, eastern Cuba, the Southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos on Thursday afternoon. The U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the low pressure system as Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo was located at latitude 15.2°N and longitude 81.5°W which put it about 365 miles (590 km) west-southwest of Kington, Jamaica. The low pressure system was moving toward the north-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Jamaica, Haiti, the Southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos, and the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane investigated the low pressure system over the western Caribbean Sea on Thursday afternoon. The crew of the plane found that there was a large counterclockwise rotation, but the was not a well defined low level center within that large rotation. There were several smaller counterclockwise rotations within the larger low pressure system. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo. Bands in the western side of the low pressure system consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of the low pressure system. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo is likely to intensify to a tropical storm during the next 36 hours.

The upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo toward the northeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo will be near Jamaica on Friday afternoon. The low pressure system will be near eastern Cuba and Haiti on Friday night. It will be over the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos on Saturday.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Jamaica, Haiti, eastern Cuba, the Southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos. Gusty winds could cause localized electricity outages. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Lisa Develops South of Jamaica

Tropical Storm Lisa developed over the Caribbean Sea south of Jamaica on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 77.3°W which put it about 175 miles (285 km) south of Kingston, Jamaica. It was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Jamaica.

The National Hurricane Center designated former Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen as Tropical Storm Lisa on Monday morning. The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Lisa was still asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Lisa’s circulation. Bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Lisa consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the eastern side of Lisa. The winds in the western side of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Lisa will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Lisa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea. The upper level ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Lisa’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Storm Lisa is likely to strengthen gradually during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Lisa will move south of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Lisa could be north of Honduras by Tuesday night. Lisa could approach Belize on Wednesday afternoon. Tropical Storm Lisa could be a hurricane when it approaches Belize.

Low Pressure System over Caribbean Sea Prompts Tropical Storm Watches for Jamaica and Grand Cayman

A low pressure system over the central Caribbean Sea prompted the issuance of Tropical Storm Watches for Jamaica and Grand Cayman on Sunday afternoon. The National Hurricane Center designated the low pressure system as Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Potential Tropical Tropical Cyclone Fifteen was located at latitude 15.7°N and longitude 73.6°W which put it about 265 miles (425 km) southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. It was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches were issued for Jamaica and Grand Cayman.

Reconnaissance planes from the U.S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA found winds to tropical storm force in the northern side of a low pressure system over the central Caribbean Sea on Sunday. Based on data collected by the planes, the National Hurricane Center designated the low pressure system as Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen. There was a large counterclockwise rotation around the low pressure system. Several small counterclockwise swirls were revolving around the larger low pressure system. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the northern side of Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen. The winds in the southern half of the low pressure system were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge over the eastern two thirds of the Caribbean Sea. The upper level ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen will be designated as a tropical storm if more thunderstorms form closer to the center of circulation. It could eventually strengthen to a hurricane later this week.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen will move south of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen toward the west-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen will pass south of Jamaica on Monday. It will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Jamaica. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Fiona Nears Canadian Maritimes

Hurricane Fiona neared the Canadian Maritimes on Friday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Fiona was located at latitude 44.5°N and longitude 60.8°W which put it about 140 miles (220 km) east of Halifax, Nova Scotia. Fiona was moving toward the north at 46 m.p.h. (74 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 933 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Hubbards to Brule, Nova Scotia. Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Prince Edward Islands and Isle de la Madeline. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Parson’s Pond to Francois, Newfoundland. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for St. Andrews, New Brunswick to Hubbards, Nova Scotia. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Brule, Nova Scotia to Cap Madeline, Quebec. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Anticosti Island and for the portion of the coast from Sheldrake, Quebec to Parson’s Pond, Newfoundland. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Boat Harbor to Hare Bay, Newfoundland. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Francois to St. Lawrence, Newfoundland. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Boat Harbor, Newfoundland to West Bay, Labrador.

Hurricane Fiona was making a rapid transition to a large, powerful extratropical cyclone on Friday night. The former eye and eyewall were no longer present at the center of Fiona. Most of the remaining thunderstorms were in bands northeast of the center of Fiona’s circulation. Cooler drier air was wrapping around the western and southern sides of the circulation. Upper level divergence above Hurricane Fiona was still pumping mass away and the surface pressure remained around 933 mb.

Hurricane Fiona grew much larger during the transition to an extratropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Fiona’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 345 miles (555 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Fiona was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 48.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 66.2. Hurricane Fiona was capable of causing extensive serious damage.

An upper level trough over eastern Canada will steer Hurricane Fiona quickly toward the north during the weekend. The strongest winds will occur over eastern Nova Scotia and western Newfoundland. Strong winds will also affect the rest of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island, parts of New Brunswick, Quebec and Labrador. The large circulation around Hurricane Fiona could cause widespread electrical outages. Locally heavy rain could cause floods in some places. Large waves and a storm surge could cause damage along the coast.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Gaston brought wind and rain to the Azores, Tropical Storm Hermine moved northeast of the Cabo Verde Islands and Tropical Storm Ian formed over the Caribbean Sea.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was located at latitude 38.9°N and longitude 29.5°W which put it about 50 miles (80 km) west-northwest of the Faial, Azores. Gaston was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Corvo, Flores, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and Terceira.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was located at latitude 19.4°N and longitude 20.8°W which put it about 315 miles (505 km) northeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Hermine was moving toward the north at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located at latitude 14.8°N and longitude 72.0°W which put it about 385 miles (625 km) southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. Ian was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Hurricane Watches were in effect for the Cayman Islands including Grand Cayman, Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Jamaica.

Hurricane Fiona Blows Past Bermuda

Hurricane Fiona blew past Bermuda on Thursday night. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Fiona was located at latitude 34.1°N and longitude 64.9°W which put it about 125 miles (200 km) north of Bermuda. Fiona was moving toward the north-northeast at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 936 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Bermuda. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Hubbards to Brule, Nova Scotia. Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Prince Edward Islands and Isle de la Madeline. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Parson’s Pond to Francois, Newfoundland. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for St. Andrews, New Brunswick to Hubbards, Nova Scotia. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Brule, Nova Scotia to Cap Madeline, Quebec. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Anticosti Island and for the portion of the coast from Sheldrake, Quebec to Parson’s Pond, Newfoundland. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Boat Harbor to Hare Bay, Newfoundland. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Francois to St. Lawrence, Newfoundland. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Boat Harbor, Newfoundland to West Bay, Labrador.

The center of Hurricane Fiona passed west of Bermuda on Thursday night. The L. F. Wade International Airport in Bermuda reported a sustained wind speed of 64 m.p.h. (103 km/h) and a wind gust of 83 m.p.h. (134 km/h). There were reports of stronger wind speeds measured by automated stations in higher locations in Bermuda.

Hurricane Fiona continued to be a large, well organized hurricane. A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) was at the center of Fiona’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the core of Hurricane Fiona. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

Hurricane Fiona grew into a large hurricane as it moved farther north on Thursday night. Winds to hurricane force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Fiona. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 345 miles (555 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 32.70 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 56.3. Hurricane Fiona was larger than Hurricane Jeanne was in 2004.

Hurricane Fiona will move through an environment that will become less favorable for a major hurricane during the next 24 hours. Fiona will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures colder than 26˚C. An upper level trough near the East Coast of the U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fiona’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Hurricane Fiona will start to weaken gradually when the wind shear increase. A combination of colder Sea Surface Temperatures and moderate vertical wind shear will cause Hurricane Fiona to make a transition to a very strong extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough near the East Coast of the U.S. will steer Fiona toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Fiona will move away from Bermuda on Friday. Hurricane Fiona will approach the Canadian Maritimes on Friday night. Fiona will bring strong, destructive winds to the Canadian Maritimes. Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Gaston was bringing wind and rain to the Azores and Tropical Depression Nine formed over the southeastern Caribbean Sea. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Corvo, Flores, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and Terceira. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was located at latitude 40.5°N and longitude 29.2°W which put it about 135 miles (215 km) north-northwest of the Faial. Gaston was moving toward the east-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located at latitude 13.9°N and longitude 68.6°W which put it about 615 miles (985 km) east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. The tropical depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb. Tropical Depression Nine is forecast to intensify to a hurricane over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the weekend. It could move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico early next week.

Elsa Weakens South of Hispaniola

Former Hurricane Elsa weakened back to tropical storm intensity while it passed south of Hispaniola on Saturday. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 73.0°W which put it about 255 miles (410 km) east of Kingston, Jamaica. Elsa was moving toward the west-northwest at 29 m.p.h. (46 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Port Au Prince, Haiti to the southern border with the Dominican Republic. Hurricane Watches were in effect for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Santiago de Cuba. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portion of the coast from Port Au Prince to the northern border with the Dominican Republic and from Punta Palenque, Dominican Republic to the southern border with Haiti. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for Jamaica and the Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Palenque to Cabo Engano, Dominican Republic. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Cayman Brac, Little Cayman and the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos, Villa Clara and Matanzas.

Strong winds in the lower levels pushed the surface center of former Hurricane Elsa to the west of the center in the middle levels early on Saturday. The displacement between the two centers disrupted the vertical circulation of Elsa and it weakened back to tropical storm intensity. More thunderstorms started to develop east of the center of Tropical Storm Elsa on Saturday morning. Mountains in southwestern Haiti appeared to deflect the low level flow around the northern side of Elsa. More thunderstorms began forming to the north of the center of Tropical Storm Elsa on Saturday afternoon. A NOAA plane appeared to find that the surface pressure was decreasing again at the center of Elsa on Saturday afternoon. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. The center of Tropical Storm Elsa will pass just south of Haiti and just north of Jamaica. Elsa will move more slowly during the next 24 hours. It will move into a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be less vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Elsa could intensify back to a hurricane on Saturday night.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next 18 hours. The high will continue to steer Tropical Storm Elsa toward the west-northwest, but Elsa is likely to more more slowly. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. is forecast to weaken the high pressure system on Sunday. When the high weakens, then Tropical Storm Elsa will move more toward the northwest. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Elsa will pass just to the south of the southwestern coast of Haiti. The center of Tropical Storm Elsa could pass north of Jamaica and be near eastern Cuba by Sunday morning. Elsa could approach the Florida Keys on Monday. Elsa will cause gusty winds and locally heavy rain over parts of Haiti, Jamaica and Cuba.

Tropical Depression 29 Forms over the Central Caribbean Sea

Tropical Depression Twentynine formed over the central Caribbean Sea on Saturday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Twentynine was located at latitude 15.0°N and longitude 73.2°W which put it about 315 miles (510 km) southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. The depression was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Visible satellite images strongly suggested that a low level center of circulation had developed in an area of thunderstorms over the central Caribbean Sea on Saturday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Twentynine. The circulation around the depression exhibited more organization. Thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms formed and began to revolve around the center. Storms near the center started to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Twentynine will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will be in a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. The depression could intensify into a tropical storm during the next 12 hours. It could strengthen into a hurricane within 48 hours.

Tropical Depression Twentynine will move south of a ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic Ocean. The ridge will steer the depression toward the west during the next couple of days. On its anticipated path the depression could approach Nicaragua and Honduras in about 48 hours. It could be a hurricane when it gets there.