Tag Archives: Kupang

Tropical Cyclone Seroja Intensifies South of Indonesia

Tropical Cyclone Seroja intensified south of Indonesia on Sunday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja was located at latitude 10.7°S and longitude 122.3°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) west-southwest of Kupang, Indonesia. Seroja was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A tropical low near West Timor intensified into Tropical Cyclone Seroja south of Indonesia on Sunday. Bands of strong thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Seroja. The strongest bands were in the northern and western parts of the circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days. Seroja will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 30°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge. The winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Seroja will continue to intensify during the next 48 hours. Seroja could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high will Seroja toward the southwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Seroja will remain northwest of Western Australia during the next two days. An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will approach Seroja later this week. The trough could turn Tropical Cyclone Seroja toward the southeast and it could eventually threaten Western Australia.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone 27S formed south of Christmas Island. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone 27S was located at latitude 15.0°S and longitude 104.8°E which put it about 330 miles (535 km) south of Christmas Island. The tropical cyclone was moving toward the south at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Low Develops Near West Timor

A tropical low developed near West Timor on Saturday. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of the tropical low was located at latitude 10.6°S and longitude 123.6°E which put it about 30 miles (50 km) west of Kupang, Indonesia. The tropical low was nearly stationary. The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

An area of low pressure near West Timor exhibited more organization on Saturday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology classified the system as a tropical low. Visible and microwave satellite images showed a distinct low level center of circulation. More thunderstorms formed near the center of the tropical low. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical low.

The tropical low will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days. The tropical low will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 30°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge. The winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. The tropical low is likely to intensify into the equivalent of a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. It could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon by early next week.

The tropical low will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours. It will remain near West Timor during that time. Thunderstorms in rainbands will drop locally heavy rain and flash floods could occur. A high pressure system over Australia will begin to steer the tropical low toward the southwest in a day or so. On its anticipated track the system will remain northwest of Western Australia during the next few days.