Tag Archives: La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Eloise Develops Northeast of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Eloise developed northeast of Mauritius on Sunday. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Eloise was located at latitude 12.7°S and longitude 61.5°E which put it about 605 miles (980 km) north-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. Eloise was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system northeast of Mauritius strengthened on Sunday morning and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Eloise. The distribution of thunderstorms around Eloise was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Eloise. Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Eloise generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Eloise will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next several days. Eloise will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under the northern portion of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear which will inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Eloise could intensify slowly during the next 24 hours despite the moderate vertical wind shear.

Tropical Cyclone Eloise will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high will steer Eloise toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Eloise could approach northern Madagascar in about three days.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Joshua moved far to the southeast of Diego Garcia. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Joshua was located at latitude 18.5°S and longitude 89.8°E which put it about 1405 miles (2265 km) southeast of Digeo Garcia. Joshua was moving toward the southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Weak Danilo Passes North of Rodrigues

Weak Tropical Cyclone Danilo passed north of Rodrigues on Saturday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Danilo was located at latitude 19.1°S and longitude 61.5°E which put it about 275 miles (445 km) east of Port Louis, Mauritius. Danilo was moving toward the west-southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo weakened into the equivalent of a tropical depression while it passed north of Rodrigues on Saturday. Dry air continued to limit the development of thunderstorms in the circulation around Danilo. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southeastern quadrant of Tropical Cyclone Danilo. Bands in the other parts of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Danilo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under the center of a small upper level ridge east of Madagascar. The upper level winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Even though the environment is somewhat favorable for intensification, the drier air around Danilo is likely to continue to inhibit strengthening of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Danilo toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Danilo will pass near pass near Mauritius in about 20 hours. Danilo could be near La Reunion in a day or so. Tropical Cyclone Danilo could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Mauritius and La Reunion.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo Moves Northeast of Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Danilo moved northeast of Rodrigues on Friday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Danilo was located at latitude 18.1°S and longitude 66.2°E which put it about 215 miles (350 km) east-northeast of Rodrigues. Danilo was moving toward the west-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Danilo continued to be affected by drier. Thunderstorms became more numerous for a time on Thursday and then those storms weakened during Thursday night. A few new thunderstorms began to develop on Friday morning. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Danilo. Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 60 miles (95 km) in the southern side of Danilo. Winds in the northern half of the tropical cyclone were weaker than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next two days. Danilo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under the center of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. The drier air around Danilo will continue to inhibit intensification of the tropical cyclone. If the recent increase in thunderstorms persists, then Tropical Cyclone Danilo could intensify a little during the next 24 hours. If the drier air causes those thunderstorms to dissipate, then Danilo could weaken to the equivalent of a tropical depression.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Danilo toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Danilo will pass north of Rodrigues during the next 12 hours. Since the most of the thunderstorms and the strongest winds are in the southern half of the circulation, Danilo will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Rodrigues. Tropical Cyclone Danilo could approach Mauritius and La Reunion in less than 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo Weakens South of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Dailo weakened south of Diego Garcia on Wednesday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Danilo was located at latitude 16.6°S and longitude 74.0°E which put it about 665 miles (1070 km) south of Diego Garcia. Danilo was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Northerly winds carried dry air from Asia across the Indian Ocean and some of the dry air was pulled into the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Danilo. The dry air mixed with the moister air in the eyewall and rainbands, which caused the thunderstorms in those regions to weaken. When the thunderstorms weakened, downdrafts that transported stronger winds to the surface also weakened. The eye and eyewall at the center of circulation dissipated. Bands in the northern half of Danilo consisted of showers and lower clouds. Some thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Danilo. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next several days. Danilo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak under the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. If the flow of drier air diminishes, then Tropical Cyclone Danilo could strengthen again. However, if the flow of drier air remains strong, then intensification is unlikely. Slight intensification is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The ridge will steer Danilo toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Danilo could be north of Rodrigues in 60 hours. Danilo could approach Mauritius and La Reunion in about four days.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo Intensifies to Equivalent of a Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Danilo intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Monday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Danilo was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 76.4°E which put it about 675 miles (1090 km) south of Diego Garcia. Danilo was moving toward the south at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo intensified south of Diego Garcia on Monday night. After the circulation around Danilo fully absorbed the circulation of a tropical depression, the tropical cyclone began intensify again. An eye at the center of Tropical Cyclone Danilo was evident on microwave satellite images. A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Danilo. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Danilo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak under the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Danilo is very likely to intensify during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The ridge will steer Danilo toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Danilo could be northeast of Rodrigues in four days. Danilo could approach Mauritius and La Reunion during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Chalane Forms Northeast of La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Chalane formed over the South Indian Ocean northeast of La Reunion on Thursday. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chalane was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 58.2°E which put it about 410 miles (665 km) north-northeast of La Reunion. Chalane was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system northeast of La Reunion strengthened on Thursday and the system was designated at Tropical Cyclone Chalane. The circulation around Chalane was still organizing. The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone Chalane was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands southeast of the center of circulation. The strongest winds were occurring in those rainbands. Bands in other parts of Chalane consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms southeast of the center of circulation generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the south of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Chalane will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Chalane will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce northerly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and they will inhibit intensification during the next 12 hours. Chalane will move into an area where the upper level winds will be weaker on Friday and it could strengthen more.

Tropical Cyclone Chalane will move south of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high will steer Chalane toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Chalane will pass north of Mauritius and La Reunion. Chalane could approach northern Madagascar in about 48 hours. Tropical Cyclone Chalane will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of northern Madagascar. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Herold Brings Wind, Rain to Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Herold brought wind and rain to Rodrigues on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Herold was located at latitude 21.4°S and longitude 64.1°E which put it about 125 miles (200 km) south-southeast of Port Mathurin, Mauritius.  Herold was moving toward the southeast at 21 m.p.h. (34 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

The core of Tropical Cyclone Herold passed west of Rodrigues on Tuesday, but it came close enough to that island to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain.  A weather station at the Plaine Corail airport on Rodrigues reported a wind gust of 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).

Although Tropical Cyclone Herold began to weaken on Tuesday.  It remained strong enough to generate wind gusts to hurricane/typhoon force over parts of Rodrigues.  Microwave satellite imagery indicated the there was still an eye at the center of Herold, although the eye was not evident on conventional infrared images.  The eye was surround by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 150 miles (240 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Herold will continue to weaken during the next several days.  An upper level trough near Madagascar and an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean will interact to produce strong northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Herold.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear and they will cause the tropical cyclone to weaken.

The upper level trough and ridge will steer Tropical Cyclone Herold toward the southeast.  On its anticipated track Herold will move quickly away from Rodrigues.  Weather conditions on that island will gradually improve as Tropical Cyclone Herold moves farther away.

Tropical Cyclone Herold Passes North of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Herold passed north of Mauritius on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Herold was located at latitude 17.3°S and longitude 57.6°E which put it about 230 miles (370 km) north of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Herold was moving toward the east-southeast at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Herold remained well organized on Monday.  Microwave satellite imagery indicated that there was an eye at the center of circulation, but the eye was not visible on conventional satellite images.  The eye was surround by a narrow ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Herold.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms were in bands south and east of the center of circulation.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (215 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Herold may have reached its maximum intensity.  Herold will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  So, there will be plenty of energy in the upper layer of the South Indian Ocean to support intensification.  However, an upper level trough near Madagascar and an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean will interact to produce strong northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Herold.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and they will likely prevent further intensification.  In fact the wind shear is likely to be strong enough to cause Herold to start to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough and ridge will combine to steer Tropical Cyclone Herold quickly toward the east-southeast.  On its anticipated track Herold could reach Rodrigues within 24 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Herold is likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Port Mathurin and the rest of Rodrigues.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Gretel Speeds By New Caledonia

Tropical Cyclone Gretel sped by New Caledonia on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gretel was located at latitude 25.9°S and longitude 169.4°E which put it about 750 miles (1210 km) north-northwest of Auckland, New Zealand.  Gretel was moving toward the southeast at 37 m.p.h. (60 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gretel moved around the western end of high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean.  The high steered Gretel rapidly toward the southeast and the tropical cyclone sped over the Coral Sea west of New Caledonia.  Rainbands on the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Gretel brought wind and rain to portions of New Caledonia on Sunday.

An upper level ridge produced strong northwesterly winds which created strong vertical wind shear.  The wind shear tilted the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Gretel toward the southeast and Gretel began to weaken.  The stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands south and east of the center of Gretel.  Bands in other parts of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The wind field around Gretel expanded when the tropical cyclone started to weaken.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Gretel will continue to move rapidly toward the southeast during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Gretel could pass north of New Zealand in 24 to 36 hours.

Elsewhere, over the South Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Herold strengthened east of Madagascar.  At 5:00 p.m EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Herold was located at latitude 15.5°S and longitude 53.2°E which put it about 405 miles (655 km) west-northwest of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Herold was moving toward the east-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.  Tropical Cyclone Herold could reach Rodrigues in about 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Herold Drops Heavy Rain Over Northeast Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Herold dropped heavy rain over parts of northeast Madagascar on Saturday.  A rainband on the western side of Herold was dropping locally heavy rain over northern Madagascar from Mananara to Iharana.  At 5:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Herold was located at latitude 15.0°S and longitude 51.2°E which put it about 545 miles (880 km) northwest of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Herold was moving toward the east at 1 m.p.h. (2 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Herold strengthened into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Saturday.  A large ragged circular eye with a diameter of 50 miles (80 km) formed at the center of Herold.  A broken ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  One strong band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the eastern and southern sides of Tropical Cyclone Herold.  A second strong band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the western and northern sides of Herold.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Herold will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  Herold will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under an upper level ridge where the winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Herold will intensify during the next 48 hours and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Herold has been in an area where the steering winds are weak and it has not moved very far during the past 24 hours.  A subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean will strengthen.  Herold will move around the southwestern part of the high pressure system and the high will steer the tropical cyclone toward the east-southeast.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Herold will move away from Madagascar on Sunday.  The center of Herold could pass north of Mauritius in three days.  Tropical Cyclone Herold could approach Rodrigues in 84 to 90 hours.