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Tropical Cyclone Freddy Passes North of Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Freddy passed north of Rodrigues on Sunday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 17.6°S and longitude 63.2°E which put it about 140 miles (225 km) north of Rodrigues. Freddy was moving toward the west-southwest at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 925 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy was the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it passed north of Rodrigues on Sunday morning. Bands in the southern side of Freddy’s circulation brought gusty winds and rain to Rodrigues. A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Freddy’s circulation. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Freddy was very symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Freddy’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Freddy was 31.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 45.6. Tropical Cyclone Freddy was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Ida, when Ida hit the coast of Louisiana in 2021. Freddy was capable of causing regional severe damage.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will continue to move through an environment that will be favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls could form. Concentric eyewalls would likely cause an eyewall replacement cycle that would cause Tropical Cyclone Freddy to weaken temporarily.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Freddy will be north of Mauritius in less than 24 hours. Freddy will continue to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Rodrigues until it moves farther away. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will also affect Mauritius, La Reunion and Madagascar. Bands in the southern side of Freddy’s circulation will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Mauritius and La Reunion on Monday. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will approach the east coast of Madagascar in 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Moves East-Northeast of Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Freddy moved east-northeast of Rodrigues on Saturday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 68.8°E which put it about 430 miles (690 km) east-northeast of Rodrigues. Freddy was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy was still the equivalent of a major hurricane. The circulation around Freddy was very close to being in equilibrium with the environment around it. A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Freddy’s circulation. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Freddy was very symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Freddy’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Freddy was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 37.7. Tropical Cyclone Freddy was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey, when Harvey hit the coast of Texas in 2017. Freddy was capable of causing regional major damage.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will continue to move through an environment that will be favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Freddy has a structure similar to an annular hurricane. Tropical cyclones with a structure like an annular hurricane tend to maintain nearly a steady intensity.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west during the next24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Freddy will be north of Rodrigues in 24 hours. Freddy could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Rodrigues. Tropical Cyclone Freddy could eventually threaten Mauritius, La Reunion and Madagascar. Freddy could be north of Mauritius in 48 hours and it could be near the east coast of Madagascar in three days.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Passes South of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Freddy passed south of Diego Garcia on Friday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 15.9°S and longitude 73.2°E which put it about 580 miles (935 km) south of Diego Garcia. Freddy was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (270 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 937 mb.

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Freddy was still the equivalent of a major hurricane as it passed south of Diego Garcia on Friday. A circular eye with a diameter of 23 miles (37 km) was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Freddy’s circulation. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Freddy was 28.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 44.8.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will continue to move through an environment that will be favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall of Tropical Cyclone Freddy, then concentric eyewalls could form. That would start an eyewall replacement cycle that would cause Freddy to weaken temporarily.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Freddy will be northeast of Rodrigues in 48 hours. Freddy could eventually threaten Mauritius, La Reunion and Madagascar in a few days. Tropical Cyclone Freddy could approach Mauritius in 72 hours and it could be near the east coast of Madagascar in four days.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Still Moving West

Tropical Cyclone Freddy was still moving westward over the South Indian Ocean on Thursday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 15.1°S and longitude 78.8°E which put it about 720 miles (1165 km) southeast of Diego Garcia. Freddy was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 929 mb.

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Freddy continued to move toward the west over the South Indian Ocean. A smallcircular eye with a diameter of 8 miles (13 km) was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Freddy’s circulation. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Freddy was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Freddy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Freddy was 30.0. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 44.6.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment that will be favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing small inner core of Tropical Cyclone Freddy, then concentric eyewalls could form. That would start an eyewall replacement cycle that would cause Freddy to weaken temporarily.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move south of Diego Garcia in 36 hours. Freddy could eventually threaten Mauritius, La Reunion and Madagascar in a few days. Tropical Cyclone Freddy could be northeast of Rodrigues in three days. Freddy could approach Mauritius in four days and it could be near the east coast of Madagascar in five days.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Dingani completed a transition to an extratropical cyclone. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of former Tropical Cyclone Dingani was located at latitude 31.5°S and longitude 67.7°E which put it about 860 miles (1385 km) south-southeast of Rodrigues. Dingani was moving toward the south at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Rapidly Intensifies to near Threshold for Cat. 5 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Freddy rapidly intensified to near the threshold for a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Wednesday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 15.0°S and longitude 84.2°E which put it about 1000 miles (1615 km) southeast of Diego Garcia. Freddy was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 920 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy rapidly intensified over the South Indian Ocean during Tuesday night. Freddy was near the threshold for a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Wednesday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 15 miles (24 km) was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Freddy’s circulation. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Freddy was 33.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 45.7.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment that will be favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls could forms. That would start an eyewall replacement cycle that would cause Tropical Cyclone Freddy to weaken temporarily.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move south of Diego Garcia in three days. Freddy could eventually threaten Mauritius, La Reunion and Madagascar in a few days.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Dingani continued to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dingani was located at latitude 27.2°S and longitude 69.2°E which put it about 635 miles (1025 km) southeast of Rodrigues. Dingani was moving toward the southwest at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati Strengthens to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Emnati strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane east of Madagascar on Sunday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was located at latitude 17.3°S and longitude 55.5°E which put it about 220 miles (355 km) north-northwest of St. Denis, La Reunion. Emnati was moving toward the west-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 945 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane east of Madagascar on Sunday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 14 miles (22 km) was at the center of Emnati’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Emnati. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Microwave satellite images showed that the inner end of a rainband was wrapping around the existing eye and eyewall. Concentric eyewalls could be forming and an eyewall replacement cycle could be starting.

The potential start of an eyewall replacement cycle caused the size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Emnati to increase. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Emnati’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Emnati was 22.0. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 17.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 39.8. Tropical Cyclone Emnati was capable of causing regional major damage.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Emnati will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Emnati’s circulation. The winds in the lower atmosphere are also blowing from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear. Even though Tropical Cyclone Emnati will be in an environment favorable for intensification, if an eyewall replace cycle occurs Emnati will weaken when the current eyewall dissipates. Tropical Cyclone Emanti could eventually strengthen again after the eyewall replacement cycle is completed.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Emnati toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Emanti will move away from La Reunion on Sunday. Tropical Cyclone Emnati could reach the east coast of Madagascar in 48 hours. Emnati could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Madagascar. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will bring strong destructive winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Emanti will also cause a significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati Passes North of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Emnati passed north of Mauritius on Saturday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was located at latitude 16.7°S and longitude 57.7°E which put it about 260 miles (420 km) north-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. Emnati was moving toward the west-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati continued to have the intensity of a hurricane/typhoon on Saturday. A small eye was evident on microwave satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Emnati. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Emnati will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Emnati’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent strengthening. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will intensify during the next 36 hours. Emanti could eventually strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next three days.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Emnati toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Emanti will move away from Mauritius on Saturday. Emnati will pass north of La Reunion on Sunday. Tropical Cyclone Emnati could reach the east coast of Madagascar in three days.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Emnati strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon northeast of Mauritius on Friday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was located at latitude 14.6°S and longitude 60.9°E which put it about 475 miles (765 km) northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. Emnati was moving toward the west-southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Southwest Indian Ocean northeast of Mauritius on Friday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) formed at the center of Emnati’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were blowing in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Emnati. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles from the center of Emnati. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Emnati will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Emnati’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent strengthening. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will intensify during the next 36 hours. Emnati could intensify more rapidly now that an inner core with an eye and an eyewall have formed. Tropical Cyclone Emanti could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Emnati toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Emanti will pass north of Mauritius in 30 hours. Emnati could pass north of La Reunion in 60 hours. Tropical Cyclone Emnati could reach the east coast of Madagascar in four days.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati Intensifies Northeast of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Emnati intensified northeast of Mauritius on Thursday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was located at latitude 13.6°S and longitude 62.6°E which put it about 595 miles (960 km) northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. Emnati was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Emnati strengthened on Thursday. Microwave satellite imagery indicated that a circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) was forming at the center of Emnati’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms. The strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the developing core of Tropical Cyclone Emnati. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Emnati.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Emnati will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Emnati’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent strengthening. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will intensify to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours. Emnati could intensify more rapidly once the inner core with an eye and a complete eyewall forms.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high will steer Emnati toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Emanti will pass north of Mauritius in 36 hours. Emnati could pass north of La Reunion in 72 hours. Tropical Cyclone Emnati could reach Madagascar in less than five days.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati Forms Northeast of Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Emnati formed over the Southwest Indian Ocean northeast of Rodrigues on Wednesday. At 7:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was located at latitude 14.0°S and longitude 67.2°E which put it about 455 miles (735 km) northeast of Rodrigues. Emnati was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean northeast of Rodrigues strengthened on Wednesday and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Emnati. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Emnati appeared to be organizing quickly on Wednesday evening. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Emnati’s circulation and microwave satellite images suggested that a small eye could be forming at the center. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of the tropical cyclone. Bands in the eastern half of Emnati consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Emnati will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Emnati’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent strengthening. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will intensify during the next 48 hours and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon. Emnati could intensify more rapidly once an inner core with an eye and an eyewall forms.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high will steer Emnati toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Emanti will pass north of Rodrigues in 36 hours. Emnati could pass north of Mauritius and La Reunion during the weekend. Tropical Cyclone Emnati could hit Madagascar next week.