Tag Archives: Leyte

Strengthening Typhoon Phanfone Makes Landfall in Central Philippines

A strengthening Typhoon Phanfone made landfall in the central Philippines on Tuesday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Phanfone was located at latitude 11.6°N and longitude 124.1°E which put it about 30 miles (50 km) southeast of Placer, Philippines.  Phanfone was moving toward the west-northwest at 19 m.p.h. (31 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 966 mb.

Typhoon Phanfone strengthened quickly as it made landfall in the central Philippines.  A small circular eye became more distinct on  satellite imagery.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center.  The Hurricane intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Phanfone was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.8 and the Hurricane Wind intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 28.6.

The center of Typhoon Phanfone made landfall near Guiuan on Samar.  The center of Phanfone passed near Tacloban on Leyte before it moved over the Visayan Sea.  Typhoon Phanfone brought strong winds and heavy rain to Samar and Leyte.  The winds were strong enough to cause serious damage and regional power outages.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Typhoon Phanfone moved through a favorable environment that allowed to strengthen.  Phanfone moved over water where the Sea Surface Temperature was near 29°C.  It moved through a region where the upper level winds were weak and there was little vertical wind shear.  The core of Phanfone moved quickly over narrow portions of Samar and Leyte and the core remained intact.  Typhoon Phanfone could strengthen while the enter moves across the Visayan Sea and it could intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Typhoon Phanfone will move south of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean during the next several days.  The ridge will steer Phanfone toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Phanfone will pass near Masbate and the northern end of Panay Island.  Phanfone could be near Mindoro in about 12 hours.  Typhoon Phanfone will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Masbate, the northern end of Panay Island, the northern end of Negros and Mindoro.  Conditions will improve gradually when Phanfone moves away from Samar and Leyte.

Phanfone Strengthens to a Typhoon, Closing in on Central Philippines

Former Tropical Storm Phanfone strengthened to a typhoon as it closed in on the central Philippines on Monday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Typhoon Phanfone was located at latitude 10.9°N and longitude 126.9°E which put it about 80 miles (130 km) east of Guiuan, Philippines.  Phanfone was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Typhoon Phanfone strengthened on Monday.  The circulation became more symmetrical and an eye began to form at the center of Phanfone.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Phanfone.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.  The circulation around Typhoon Phanfone was relatively small.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center.

Typhoon Phanfone will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Phanfone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and the will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Phanfone will continue to intensify until it makes landfall in the central Philippines.  Phanfone will begin to weaken when the center moves over land.  It could regain some strength while the center passes over the Visayan Sea.

Typhoon Phanfone will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Phanfone toward the west-northwest during the next several days.  On it anticipated track the center of Typhoon Phanfone will pass over southern Samar near Guiuan in a few hours.  The core of Phanfone will also pass near Tacloban and northern Leyte.  Typhoon Phanfone will move over the Visayan Sea before moving near Roxas City and northern Panay Island.

Typhoon Phanfone will bring strong winds to southern Samar, Leyte and northern Panay Island.  Phanfone will drop locally heavy rain and flash floods could occur in some locations.  Typhoon Phanfone could produce a storm surge of six feet (two meters) along portions of the coast where the wind blows the water toward the shore.

Tropical Storm Sanba Brings Rain to the Southern Philippines

Tropical Storm Sanba brought rain to the southern Philippines on Monday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Sanba located at latitude 9.9°N and longitude 125.1°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) east of Cebu, Philippines.  Sanba was moving toward the west-northwest at 19 m.p.h. (31 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Storm Sanba dropped locally heavy rain on parts of northern Mindanao, Siriagao Island, Dinegat Island, Leyte, southern Samar, Bohol and Cebu on Monday.  The circulation of Tropical Storm Sanba was not well organized.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were occurring to the north and west of the center of circulation.  There were thin bands of showers and low clouds to the south and east of the center.  An upper level ridge to the north of Sanba was producing easterly winds which were blowing over the top of the circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear which was the primary reason for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Storm Sanba will move through an environment marginal for intensification.  Sanba will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  The upper level ridge will continue to produce moderate vertical wind shear, which will inhibit intensification.  In addition, the center of circulation will move across Cebu and Negros.  Increased friction caused by the and could weaken Tropical Storm Sanba.  Sanba could intensify a little when the center moves over the Sulu Sea.

A ridge north of Sanba is steering the tropical storm toward the west.  A general motion toward the west is expected to continue for another 24 to 36 hours.  After that time Sanba could move a little more toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Sanba is forecast to move over Cebu and Negros during the next 12 to 18 hours.  Sanba will move across the Sulu Sea toward Palawan and over the South China Sea.  Tropical Storm Sanba could drop locally heavy rain over Cebu, Negros, Panay and Palawan.  Prolonged heavy rain could cause flooding in some places.

Tropical Storm Tembin Forms East of the Philippines

Tropical Storm Tembin formed east of the Philippines on Wednesday.  At 1:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Tembin was located at latitude 9.0°N and longitude 130.7°E which put it about 270 miles (435 km) east of Mindanao.  Tembin was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A more well organized center of circulation developed on the eastern edge of a cluster of thunderstorms east of the Philippines and the Japan Meteorological Agency classified the system as Tropical Storm Tembin.  The distribution of thunderstorms in Tembin is asymmetrical.  Most of the storms are forming in bands north and west of the center of circulation.  Those storms are generating upper level divergence which is pumping mass away from the core of Tembin.  There are a few thunderstorms in bands on the eastern periphery of the circulation, but most of the bands in the eastern half of Tropical Storm Tembin contain only low clouds and showers.

Tropical Storm Tembin will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Tembin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level ridge north of Tembin is producing easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are causing moderate vertical wind shear and they are probably the reason why most of the thunderstorms are developing west of the center of circulation.  However, the shear has not been enough to prevent Tembin from organizing and Tembin is likely to strengthen during the next 24 hours.  The center of Tembin will move over Mindanao later on Thursday and it will weaken while the center is over land.  Tropical Storm Tembin will likely intensify once the center moves west of Mindanao.

A subtropical ridge north of Tembin is steering the tropical storm toward the west and a general westerly motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Tembin could approach Mindanao in about 24 hours.  Tembin is then forecast to move over the Bohol Sea and Sulu Sea and on toward Palawan.  It currently looks like Tropical Storm Tembin will take a track a little to the south of the track taken by Tropical Storm Kai-tak across the Philippines last week.

Tropical Storm Tembin will drop heavy rain over parts of Mindanao, southern Leyte, Bohol, Cebu, Negros, Siargao, and Dinagat.  The heavy rain could cause floods and mudslides.  The northern part of Tropical Storm Tembin could drop heavy rain in some of the places affected by Tropical Storm Kai-tak last week.  Any additional rain in those locations would hamper efforts to recover from floods and mudslides caused by Kai-tak.

Tropical Storm Kai-Tak continue to move southwest over the South China Sea.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Kai-tak was located at latitude 6.4°N and longitude 111.1°E which put it about 440 miles (710 km) southeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.  Kai-tak was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Storm Kai-tak Drops Heavy Rain on Philippines

Tropical Storm Kai-tak dropped heavy rain on places in the Philippines during the past several days.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Kai-tak was located at latitude 12.1°N and longitude 126.8°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) east-northeast of Tacloban, Philippines.  Kai-tak was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Storm Kai-Tak remains asymmetrical.  Kai-tak is south of an upper level ridge which is producing easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the tropical storm.  Those winds are causing moderate vertical wind shear and most of the thunderstorms are developing in the western half of the circulation.  The magnitude of the vertical wind shear fluctuates as the speed of the upper level winds increases or decreases.  Changes in the magnitude of the wind shear contributes to fluctuations in the intensity of the thunderstorms.  When the shear is stronger, most of the storms develop in the outer portion of the circulation of Kai-tak.  When the upper level winds slow, thunderstorms are able to develop closer to the western core of the tropical storm.  Daytime warming of the surface of some of the islands in the Philippines may increase the local instability, which also contributes to the formation of storms over those islands.

Tropical Storm Kai-tak moved very little during the past two days.  As a result, heavy rain fell repeatedly over portions of Samar, Leyte, Bohol, Cebu, Negros, Panay, Masbate and southeastern Luzon.  The heavy rain is creating the potential for floods and mudslides in those areas.

Tropical Storm Kaitak will move through an environment that is only marginally favorable for development.  Kai-tak will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  However, the upper level ridge will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Kai-tak could intensify a little during the next 24 hours, but the wind shear will limit the potential for strengthening.  Tropical Storm Kai-tak is likely to weaken when the center of circulation passes over islands in the Philippines.

The subtropical ridge north of Kai-tak is steering the tropical storm toward the northwest.  The ridge is forecast to strengthen during the weekend and it is likely to steer Tropical Storm Kai-tak more toward the west during the next 24 to 36 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Kai-tak could reach Samar in the next 12 to 18 hours.  The center could then move near Masbate and Panay.

Tropical Storm Kai-tak will continue to drop locally heavy rain on places in Samar, Leyte, Bohol, Cebu, Panay, Negros, Masbate and southern Luzon for several more days.  The heaviest rain will fall in locations where the wind pushes air up the slopes of mountains.  The potential for floods and mudslides will increase as more rain falls.

Tropical Storm Kai-tak Develops East of the Philippines

A tropical depression east of the Philippines strengthened on Wednesday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Kai-tak.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Kai-tak was located at latitude 11.2°N and longitude 127.2°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) east of Tacloban, Philippines.  Kai-tak was moving toward the west-northwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Kai-tak strengthened on Wednesday, but the distribution of thunderstorms was still asymmetrical.  Most of the stronger storms were occurring in bands in the western half of the circulation.  There were few thunderstorms in the eastern half of Kai-tak.  The center of circulation was located near the eastern edge of the strong thunderstorms.  The storms in the western half of the circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the west of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Kai-tak will move through an environment that is marginally favorable for intensification.  Kai-tak will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  So, there is enough energy in the upper ocean to support intensification.  However an upper level ridge east of the Philippines is producing easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are causing moderate vertical wind shear and the shear is probably the reason for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.  The moderate shear will limit the intensification of Tropical Storma Kai-tak.  Kai-tak could intensify slowly during the next day or two.  The center of Kai-tak will pass over some of the Philippines and the interaction with those islands will weaken the tropical storm.

The winds at the steering levels are weaker than the upper level easterlies.  Tropical Storm Kai-tak is forecast to move slowly toward the west-northwest during the next several days, but it could be nearly stationary at times.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Kai-tak could move very near Samar during the next 24 to 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Kai-tak is already dropping heavy rain over parts of Samar and Leyte.  The slow movement of Kai-tak could result in prolonged periods of heavy rain in that region.  The heavy rain has the potential to cause serious floods and mudslides.