Tag Archives: Luzon

Tropical Storm Khanun Forms Near Luzon

Tropical Storm Khanun formed near northern Luzon on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Khanun was located near latitude 18.0°N and longitude 121.6°W which put it about 240 miles (390 km) north of Manila, Philippines.  Khanun was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A center of circulation developed near the surface in an area of thunderstorms on Thursday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Khanun.  The circulation of Tropical Storm Khanun was still organizing.  The center of Khanun moved across northern Luzon and the passage over land interrupted the development of the circulation.  Despite the passage over land, a primary rainband wrapped around the western side of the circulation.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms developed in the western half of the circulation.  The rainbands were weaker in the eastern half of Khanun, especially in the part of the circulation still over northern Luzon.

Tropical Storm Khanun will move through an environment favorable for intensification when it moves over the South China Sea.  Khanun will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The tropical storm is moving under the western half of an upper level ridge.  The ridge is producing easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The shear will slow the rate of intensification, but it should not be strong enough to prevent Tropical Storm Khanun from intensifying.  Khanun should start to strengthen once the center move farther west of Luzon.  Tropical Storm Khanun is forecast to become a typhoon during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Khanun is moving south of a ridge which is steering the tropical storm toward the west.  A generally westward motion is expected to continue during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Khanun could approach Hainan Island in about 48 hours.  Khanun is likely to be a typhoon at that time.

Tropical Storm Pakhar Forms East of Luzon

Tropical Storm Pakhar formed east of Luzon on Thursday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Pakhar was located at latitude 15.2°N and longitude 124.7°E which put it about 280 miles (455 km) east of Manila, Philippines.  Pakhar was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A center of circulation developed on the eastern edge of a cluster of thunderstorms east of Luzon on Thursday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Pakhar.  The circulation of Pakhar is still in the early organizational stages.  Most of the showers and thunderstorms are occurring west of the center of circulation.  An upper level ridge north of Pakhar is producing easterly winds which are blowing across the circulation.  Those easterly winds are probably responsible for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms on the western side of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Pakhar will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 18 hours.  Pakhar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 30°C.  The easterly winds in the upper levels are causing moderate vertical wind shear and the shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Pakhar will weaken when it moves across Luzon.  After Pakhar moves out over the South China Sea, it will move back over water where the SST is near 30°C.  The forecast suggests that there could be less vertical wind shear at that time and Pakhar has a chance to intensify into a typhoon when it moves away from the Philippines.

Pakhar is being steered westward by a subtropical ridge north of the tropical storm.  Pakhar is forecast to turn more toward the northwest when it crosses Luzon.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Pakhar will reach the coast of Luzon near Baler in 12 to 18 hours.  Pakhar is forecast to continue moving toward the northwest and it could make another landfall in China west of Hong Kong in about three days.  However, there is more uncertainty about the future track of Pakhar after the tropical storm exits Luzon.

Tropical Storm Pakhar could bring heavy rain to Luzon and cause flooding in some locations.  If Tropical Storm Pakhar intensifies over the South China Sea and makes landfall west of Hong Kong as a typhoon, it could seriously affect the efforts to recover from damage caused by Typhoon Hato which hit that same area a few days ago.

Typhoon Nock-ten Moves South of Manila

Typhoon Nock-ten moved across southern Luzon and weakened on Sunday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Typhoon Nock-ten was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 120.9°E which put it near Batangas and about 75 miles (120 km/h) south-southeast of Manila, Philippines.  Nock-ten was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Typhoon Nock-ten weakened when the center moved over parts of southern Luzon.  Increased friction slowed the wind and areas of higher terrain temporarily disrupted the lower level circulation.  In addition easterly winds in the upper levels appeared to increase.  The increased vertical wind shear contributed to making the circulation more asymmetrical.  More of the thunderstorms formed in the western half of the circulation and there were fewer storms east of the center of circulation.

Typhoon Nock-ten will remain in a favorable environment for another day or so.  When Nock-ten moves west of Luzon into the South China Sea, it will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  Typhoon Nock-ten could maintain its intensity or weaken slowly during the next 24 hours.  After that time Typhoon Nock-ten will move into an environment where the upper level winds are stronger.  Increased vertical wind shear will weaken the circulation.

A subtropical ridge to the north of Nock-ten is steering the typhoon toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue for another day or two.  The center of Typhoon Nock-ten passed near Catanduanes Island.  The center then moved near Tabaco, Ligao, Burias Island, San Francisco, and Marinduque Island.  The center is near Batangas.  It will move across Lake Taal and Lubang Island before it passes into the South China Sea.  Typhoon Nock-ten will continue to produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain as the center passes south of Manila.

Strong Typhoon Nock-ten Makes Landfall in Luzon

Strong Typhoon Nock-ten made landfall in Luzon on Sunday after passing very close to Catanduanes Island.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Typhoon Nock-ten was located at latitude 13.5°N and longitude 123.5°E which put it near Tabaco and about 215 miles (345 km) east-southeast of Manila, Philippines.  Nock-ten was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (290 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 924 mb.

The circulation of Typhoon Nock-ten is very well organized.  There is a circular eye with a diameter of 14 miles (23 km) at the center of circulation.  A ring of very strong thunderstorms surrounds the eye and the strongest winds are occurring in those thunderstorms.  A second ring of thunderstorms nearly surrounds the inner eye and eyewall.  Nock-ten may have a double eyewall structure.  Additional bands of thunderstorms are occurring outside the core of the circulation.  Winds to typhoon force extend out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center.  The core of Typhoon Nock-ten is generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping out mass in all directions.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) is 31.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 15.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 47.1.  The indices indicate that Typhoon Nock-ten is capable of causing regional significant wind damage.

Typhoon Nock-ten will be moving through an atmospheric and oceanic environment that is supportive of tropical cyclones.  When the center of Typhoon Nock-ten is over water, it will move across areas where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  At times the center of Typhoon Nock-ten will move over portions of southern Luzon.  Nock-ten will weaken each time the center moves over land.  In addition, if an eyewall replacement cycle occurs, the strongest winds will slow as the inner eyewall decays.  However, the broader outer eyewall will cause Nock-ten to retain typhoon intensity for a longer period of time.

A subtropical ridge to the north of Nock-ten is steering the typhoon toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Nock-ten will pass near Naga, Calauag, Lucena, San Pablo,  and Manila in southern Luzon.

Typhoon Nock-ten is capable of doing significant wind damage.  Wind blowing water toward the coast will also create significant storm surges in east facing bays and inlets as the center of Nock-ten approaches.  When the center of circulation moves past parts of southern Luzon, the wind will shift to a southwesterly direction and there will be storms surges in in westerly facing bays and inlets.  Typhoon Nock-ten will produce very heavy rain over parts of southern Luzon.  Serious flooding and mudslides could occur in areas with steeper slopes.

Dangerous Typhoon Nock-ten Threatens the Philippines

Dangerous Typhoon Nock-ten intensified to super typhoon status on Saturday and it posed a significant threat to the northern Philippines.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Typhoon Nock-ten was located at latitude 13.5°N and longitude 127.1°E which put it about 440 miles (715 km) east of Manila, Philippines.  Nock-ten was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (290 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 928 mb.

Typhoon Nock-ten is a very strong, well organized typhoon.  Nock-ten has a small eye surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  A rainband is wrapping around the eye and concentric eyewalls could be forming.  Additional rainbands are rotating around the core of the circulation.  Winds to typhoon force extend out about 40 miles (65 km) from the center.  Thunderstorms in the core of the typhoon are generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping out mass in all directions.

Typhoon Nock-ten is moving through an environment that is favorable for tropical cyclones.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  If concentric eyewalls forms, then there could be a period of weakening as the inner eyewall dissipates and the inflow becomes concentrated in the outer eyewall.  Wind speeds could increase again if the outer eyewall starts to contract.  In either case Typhoon Nock-ten will be a dangerous typhoon when it reaches the Philippines

A subtropical ridge to the north of Nock-ten is steering the typhoon toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Nock-ten will reach Catanduanes Island within 24 hours.  Nock-ten is expected to move across southern Luzon.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) is 31.6 and the Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 15.5.  The Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 47.1.  Those indices indicate that Nock-ten is capable of producing regional significant wind damage.

Typhoon Nock-ten will cause significant wind damage when it moves across the Philippines.  It will also generate a significant storm surge in portions of the coast near the path of the center.  Nock-ten will cause heavy rain and create the potential for floods and mudslides over parts of Catanduanes Island and southern Luzon.

Typhoon Nock-ten Rapidly Intensifies Into Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Typhoon Nock-ten intensified rapidly into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Friday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Typhoon Nock-ten was located at latitude 13.2°N and longitude 128.6°E which put it about 545 miles (880 km) east of Manila, Philippines.  Nock-ten was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (18 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 935 mb.

Nock-ten is a very well organized typhoon.  There is an eye with a diameter of 14 miles (23 km) at the center of Typhoon Nock-ten.  The eye is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  Additional bands of thunderstorms surround the core of the circulation.  Winds to typhoon force extend out about 40 miles (65 km) from the center.  Thunderstorms around the center are generating strong upper level divergence in all directions.  The divergence is pumping out large amounts of mass which allowed the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) is 23.6 and the Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 15.5.  The Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 39.1.  Those indices indicate that Typhoon Nock-ten is capable of causing major regional wind damage.

Typhoon Nock-ten will continue to move through an environment that is very favorable for intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Nock-ten could intensify more during the next 24 hours and it could become a super typhoon before it reaches the Philippines.

A subtropical ridge to the north of Nock-ten is steering the typhoon toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Nock-ten could be near Catanduanes Island within 36 hours.  Nock-ten is likely to pass across southern Luzon and the center could move close to Manila.  Typhoon Nock-ten will be capable of causing major wind damage.  It will also bring heavy rain and create the potential for floods and mudslides.

Tropical Storm Nock-ten Strengthens on Its Way to the Philippines

Tropical Storm Nock-ten strengthened as it moved closer to the Philippines on Thursday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Nock-ten was located at latitude 12.0°N and longitude 132.7°E which put it about 850 miles (1370 km) east-southeast of Manila, Philippines.  Nock-ten was moving toward the west-northwest at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Even though Tropical Storm Nock-ten moved quickly on Thursday the circulation continued to organized.  A mid-level eye appeared to develop on microwave satellite imagery.  Additional rainbands developed outside the core of the tropical storm.  Thunderstorms around the core of Nock-ten generated strong upper level divergence that pumped out mass in all directions.

Tropical Storm Nock-ten is moving through an environment that is favorable for intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge to the east of Nock-ten is producing southeasterly winds that are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  However, Tropical Storm Nock-ten is moving fairly rapidly toward the west-northwest.  The rapid motion is reducing the effective vertical wind shear, and so the wind shear is not inhibiting intensification.  Tropical Storm Nock-ten will continue to strengthen and it should become a typhoon within 12 to 24 hours.

A subtropical ridge to the north of Nock-ten is steering the tropical storm toward the west-northwest.  That general motion is expected to continue for another 24 to 36 hours.  The subtropical ridge is expected to strengthen after that time and it will steer Nock-ten more toward the west.  On its anticipated track Nock-ten will approach southeast Luzon in about 48 hours.

Nock-ten is likely to be a strong typhoon when it reaches the Philippines.  It could be the equivalent of a major hurricane.  In addition to strong winds, Nock-ten will generate a storm surge  and produce locally heavy rains.  It will produce a risk of floods and mudslides.

Typhoon Haima Producing Strong Winds and Heavy Rain Over Northern Luzon

Typhoon Haima was producing strong winds and heavy rain as it moved across northern Luzon on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Haima was located at latitude 18.2°N and longitude 120.8°E which put it about 10 miles (15 km) east of Laoag, Philippines.  Haima was moving toward the west-northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 946 mb.

The center of Typhoon Haima moved quickly across northern Luzon on Wednesday.  Haima made landfall on northeastern Luzon east of Tuguegarao.  As it moved toward the west-northwest the center of Typhoon Haima passed near Tuao and Dingras.  The center also passed over the Cordillera Central, where it produced very heavy rain in places where the wind was blowing up the slopes of the mountains.

Movement across the mountain ranges in northern Luzon weakened Typhoon Haima and an eye is no longer evident on satellite images.  However, Haima is still a large, powerful typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extend out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 240 miles (390 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Haima is 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 25.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 46.2.  The indices indicate that Typhoon Haima is capable of causing widespread major wind damage.

The core of Typhoon Haima is not as well organized as it was before the typhoon made landfall in Luzon.   Some reorganization of the core could occur when Typhoon Haima moves over the South China Sea.  Haima will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level winds are weak and Typhoon Haima is still producing strong upper level divergence which is pumping mass away in all directions.  Typhoon Haima could restrengthen somewhat or maintain its intensity after the center moves northwest of the Philippines.  When Haima nears the coast of China, it will approach an upper level trough and vertical wind shear will increase.  So, Typhoon Haima is likely to be on a weakening trend when it makes landfall in China.

Typhoon Haima is moving around the western end of subtropical ridge which is steering it toward the west-northwest.  Typhoon Haima is likely to move more toward the northwest after it leaves Luzon and reaches the end of the ridge.  When Typhoon Haima nears the coast of China, it will move under southwesterly winds caused by an upper level trough over China.  Those winds will turn Haima more toward the north.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Haima could make a landfall in China northeast of Hong Kong in about 36 hours.

Typhoon Haima will continue to produce strong winds and heavy rains over parts of northern Luzon for a few more hours until the core of the typhoon moves northwest of that region.  The heavy rain has the potential to cause floods and mudslides.  Although Typhoon Haima is likely to be weakening when it reaches the coast of China, it will still be capable of producing strong winds, heavy rain, floods and a storm surge along the coast.

Typhoon Haima Equal to Cat. 5 Hurricane, Threatens Luzon

Typhoon Haima intensified into the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Tuesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Haima was located at latitude 15.9°N and longitude 128.4°E which put it about 400 miles (640 km) east of northern Luzon.  Haima was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 919 mb.

Typhoon Haima completed an eyewall replacement cycle and it intensified as the outer eyewall contracted.  Haima is a very well organized, symmetrical typhoon.  Haima has a clear circular eye surrounded by a ring of very strong thunderstorms.  Thunderstorms in the core of Typhoon Haima are generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping away large quantities of mass in all directions.  Winds to typhoon force extend out about 65 miles (105 km) from the center.

Typhoon Haima is moving through a very favorable environment.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is very little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Haima is moving on a track that is a little to the north of the track taken by Typhoon Sarika.  This means that the core of Haima is moving north of cooler water mixed to the surface by Typhoon Sarika.  Typhoon Haima could intensify more during the next 12 to 24 hours.  However, if another eyewall replacement cycle occurs, then there could be fluctuations in intensity.

A subtropical ridge is steering Typhoon Haima toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track the core of Typhoon Haima will approach northern Luzon in about 24 hours.  After Haima moves across Luzon it will reach the western end of the ridge and turn more toward the northwest.  Typhoon Haima could be near the coast of China in 72 hours.

Haima is an extremely dangerous typhoon.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Haima is 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 21.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 56.2.  The indices indicate that Typhoon Haima is capable of causing widespread catastrophic wind damage.  In addition Typhoon Haima will produce very heavy rain over northern Luzon including over some locations hit by Typhoon Sarika a few days ago.  The heavy rain will create the potential for flash floods and mudslides.  Haima will also generate a significant storm surge in locations where the wind pushes the water toward the coast.

Powerful Typhoon Sarika Makes Landfall in Luzon

Powerful Typhoon Sarika made landfall in Luzon near Baler on Saturday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Sarika was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 122.3°E which put it near Baler, Philippines and about 130 miles (210 km) east-northeast of Manila.  Sarika was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 941 mb.

Sarika is a powerful, well organized typhoon.  It has a circular eye surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  Additional rainbands are rotating around the core of Sarika.  The core of Typhoon Sarika is generating well developed upper level divergence which is pumping out mass in all directions.  Typhoon Sarika was intensifying rapidly until it made landfall.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Sarika is 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 17.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 37.6.  These indices indicate that Typhoon Sarika is capable of causing regional major wind damage.  Typhoon Sarika will also generate a storm surge along the coast of Luzon north of the eye where the wind will push water toward the coast.  Sarika will also produce heavy rain over northern Luzon which will create a risk of flash flooding and mudslides.

A subtropical ridge is steering Typhoon Marika toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track across Luzon the center of Typhoon Sarika will pass near San Jose City,  Baguio and Dagupan.  The center of Sarika could emerge over the South China Sea near the Lingayen Gulf.  The core of Typhoon Sarika will move across the Sierra Madre Mountains and the Cordillera Central.  Where winds blow up the slopes of the mountains, rising motion will be stronger and the rainfall will be heavier.  The mountains will also disrupt the airflow in the lower part of Sarika’s circulation and the typhoon will weaken.

It could take the center of Typhoon Sarika about 12 hours to move across Luzon.  The environment of the Sea China Sea will  be favorable for intensification.  The Sea Surface Temperature is warm and there will be little vertical wind shear.  If the core of the circulation remains reasonably intact, then Typhoon Sarika could intensify again while it moves across the South China Sea.  Sarika could eventually move near Hainan Island and into northern Vietnam in a few days.