Tropical Cyclone Desmond brought wind and rain to Mozambique on Monday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Desmond was located at latitude 18.8°S and longitude 36.3°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) west of Conceicao, Mozambique. Desmond was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.
Tropical Cyclone Desmond made landfall in Mozambique near Ponta Timbue on Monday. Thunderstorms developed on the western side of the circulation where the winds were blowing toward the land. Those thunderstorms were dropping heavy rain over parts of Mozambique. The strongest winds were occurring along the coast of Mozambique and over the Mozambique Channel. Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) on the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Desmond. Wind speeds were slower over land.
Tropical Cyclone Desmond will move around the eastern end of a subtropical high pressure system over southern Africa. The high will steer Desmond toward the north-northwest. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Desmond will move farther inland over the Zambezi River toward southern Malawi. Desmond will drop locally heavy rain over parts of the lower Zambezi River basin and flooding could occur in some locations.
Tropical Cyclone Berguitta intensified into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Sunday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Berguitta was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 63.1°E which put it about 415 miles (670 km) east-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. Berguitta was nearly stationary. The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.
The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Berguitta continued to get better organized on Sunday. An eye appeared intermittently at the center of circulation. The eye was surrounded by an elliptical ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in those storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation. Storms near the center of Berguitta were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the center of circulation.
Tropical Cyclone Berguitta will continue to move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days. Berguitta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Berguitta will continue to strengthen and it could intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane.
Tropical Cyclone Berguitta is moving in a region where the steering winds are weak. Berguitta moved little on Sunday. A subtropical ridge south of Berguitta is forecast to steer the tropical cyclone slowly westward during the next 24 to 48 hours. Berguitta will near the western end of the ridge in about two days and it is likely to move toward the southwest after that time. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Berguitta could reach Mauritius within 72 hours.
The core of Tropical Cyclone Berguitta could move very close to Mauritius and La Reunion. Berguitta could be the equivalent of a major hurricane at that time. It has the potential to cause major wind damage, a storm surge, heavy rain and floods.
Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean microwave images of Invest 99S depicted a structure that looked very much like a tropical cyclone. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Invest 99S was centered at latitude 15.1°S and longitude 41.6°E which put it about 75 miles (120 km) east of Lumbo, Mozambique. Microwave satellite images showed a clear area at the center of circulation surrounded by broken ring of showers and thunderstorms. A primary rainband wrapped around the eastern side of the circulation and secondary bands of showers and thunderstorms existed in all quadrants of the circulation. However, no official government agency is classifying the system as a tropical cyclone at the current time.