Tropical Cyclone Herold dropped heavy rain over parts of northeast Madagascar on Saturday. A rainband on the western side of Herold was dropping locally heavy rain over northern Madagascar from Mananara to Iharana. At 5:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Herold was located at latitude 15.0°S and longitude 51.2°E which put it about 545 miles (880 km) northwest of Port Louis, Mauritius. Herold was moving toward the east at 1 m.p.h. (2 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.
Tropical Cyclone Herold strengthened into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Saturday. A large ragged circular eye with a diameter of 50 miles (80 km) formed at the center of Herold. A broken ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. One strong band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the eastern and southern sides of Tropical Cyclone Herold. A second strong band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the western and northern sides of Herold. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles from the center.
Tropical Cyclone Herold will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Herold will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move under an upper level ridge where the winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Herold will intensify during the next 48 hours and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane.
Tropical Cyclone Herold has been in an area where the steering winds are weak and it has not moved very far during the past 24 hours. A subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean will strengthen. Herold will move around the southwestern part of the high pressure system and the high will steer the tropical cyclone toward the east-southeast. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Herold will move away from Madagascar on Sunday. The center of Herold could pass north of Mauritius in three days. Tropical Cyclone Herold could approach Rodrigues in 84 to 90 hours.