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Tropical Storm Kai-tak Drops Heavy Rain on Philippines

Tropical Storm Kai-tak dropped heavy rain on places in the Philippines during the past several days.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Kai-tak was located at latitude 12.1°N and longitude 126.8°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) east-northeast of Tacloban, Philippines.  Kai-tak was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Storm Kai-Tak remains asymmetrical.  Kai-tak is south of an upper level ridge which is producing easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the tropical storm.  Those winds are causing moderate vertical wind shear and most of the thunderstorms are developing in the western half of the circulation.  The magnitude of the vertical wind shear fluctuates as the speed of the upper level winds increases or decreases.  Changes in the magnitude of the wind shear contributes to fluctuations in the intensity of the thunderstorms.  When the shear is stronger, most of the storms develop in the outer portion of the circulation of Kai-tak.  When the upper level winds slow, thunderstorms are able to develop closer to the western core of the tropical storm.  Daytime warming of the surface of some of the islands in the Philippines may increase the local instability, which also contributes to the formation of storms over those islands.

Tropical Storm Kai-tak moved very little during the past two days.  As a result, heavy rain fell repeatedly over portions of Samar, Leyte, Bohol, Cebu, Negros, Panay, Masbate and southeastern Luzon.  The heavy rain is creating the potential for floods and mudslides in those areas.

Tropical Storm Kaitak will move through an environment that is only marginally favorable for development.  Kai-tak will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  However, the upper level ridge will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Kai-tak could intensify a little during the next 24 hours, but the wind shear will limit the potential for strengthening.  Tropical Storm Kai-tak is likely to weaken when the center of circulation passes over islands in the Philippines.

The subtropical ridge north of Kai-tak is steering the tropical storm toward the northwest.  The ridge is forecast to strengthen during the weekend and it is likely to steer Tropical Storm Kai-tak more toward the west during the next 24 to 36 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Kai-tak could reach Samar in the next 12 to 18 hours.  The center could then move near Masbate and Panay.

Tropical Storm Kai-tak will continue to drop locally heavy rain on places in Samar, Leyte, Bohol, Cebu, Panay, Negros, Masbate and southern Luzon for several more days.  The heaviest rain will fall in locations where the wind pushes air up the slopes of mountains.  The potential for floods and mudslides will increase as more rain falls.

Tropical Storm Kai-tak Develops East of the Philippines

A tropical depression east of the Philippines strengthened on Wednesday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Kai-tak.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Kai-tak was located at latitude 11.2°N and longitude 127.2°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) east of Tacloban, Philippines.  Kai-tak was moving toward the west-northwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Kai-tak strengthened on Wednesday, but the distribution of thunderstorms was still asymmetrical.  Most of the stronger storms were occurring in bands in the western half of the circulation.  There were few thunderstorms in the eastern half of Kai-tak.  The center of circulation was located near the eastern edge of the strong thunderstorms.  The storms in the western half of the circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the west of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Kai-tak will move through an environment that is marginally favorable for intensification.  Kai-tak will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  So, there is enough energy in the upper ocean to support intensification.  However an upper level ridge east of the Philippines is producing easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are causing moderate vertical wind shear and the shear is probably the reason for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.  The moderate shear will limit the intensification of Tropical Storma Kai-tak.  Kai-tak could intensify slowly during the next day or two.  The center of Kai-tak will pass over some of the Philippines and the interaction with those islands will weaken the tropical storm.

The winds at the steering levels are weaker than the upper level easterlies.  Tropical Storm Kai-tak is forecast to move slowly toward the west-northwest during the next several days, but it could be nearly stationary at times.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Kai-tak could move very near Samar during the next 24 to 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Kai-tak is already dropping heavy rain over parts of Samar and Leyte.  The slow movement of Kai-tak could result in prolonged periods of heavy rain in that region.  The heavy rain has the potential to cause serious floods and mudslides.

Tropical Storm Haikui Develops Over the Philippines

Tropical Storm Haikui developed over the Philippines on Thursday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Haikui was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 119.8°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) west-southwest of Manila, Philippines.  Haikui was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  Thee minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A center of circulation developed within an area of showers and thunderstorms over the Philippines and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Haikui.  The circulation of Tropical Storm Haikui is still organizing.  Several areas of showers and thunderstorms are east and south of the center of circulation.  Broken bands of showers and storms are beginning to form farther away from the center.  There are fewer showers and thunderstorms in the western half of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Haikui will be moving through an environment that is somewhat favorable for intensification.  Haikui will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level ridge centered northeast of the Philippines is producing easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are causing moderate vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Haikui will move toward the western end of the ridge and the winds will blow from the southwest at that point.  So, the direction of the wind shear will change.  If Haikui stays far enough south, it will pass south of the stronger upper level winds and the tropical storm could intensify.

The ridge northeast of the Philippines is steering Tropical Storm Haikui toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Haikui will move away from the Philippines across the South China Sea.  Haikui could approach Hainan Island in a few days.

Tropical Storm Khanun Forms Near Luzon

Tropical Storm Khanun formed near northern Luzon on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Khanun was located near latitude 18.0°N and longitude 121.6°W which put it about 240 miles (390 km) north of Manila, Philippines.  Khanun was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A center of circulation developed near the surface in an area of thunderstorms on Thursday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Khanun.  The circulation of Tropical Storm Khanun was still organizing.  The center of Khanun moved across northern Luzon and the passage over land interrupted the development of the circulation.  Despite the passage over land, a primary rainband wrapped around the western side of the circulation.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms developed in the western half of the circulation.  The rainbands were weaker in the eastern half of Khanun, especially in the part of the circulation still over northern Luzon.

Tropical Storm Khanun will move through an environment favorable for intensification when it moves over the South China Sea.  Khanun will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The tropical storm is moving under the western half of an upper level ridge.  The ridge is producing easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The shear will slow the rate of intensification, but it should not be strong enough to prevent Tropical Storm Khanun from intensifying.  Khanun should start to strengthen once the center move farther west of Luzon.  Tropical Storm Khanun is forecast to become a typhoon during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Khanun is moving south of a ridge which is steering the tropical storm toward the west.  A generally westward motion is expected to continue during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Khanun could approach Hainan Island in about 48 hours.  Khanun is likely to be a typhoon at that time.

Tropical Storm Pakhar Forms East of Luzon

Tropical Storm Pakhar formed east of Luzon on Thursday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Pakhar was located at latitude 15.2°N and longitude 124.7°E which put it about 280 miles (455 km) east of Manila, Philippines.  Pakhar was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A center of circulation developed on the eastern edge of a cluster of thunderstorms east of Luzon on Thursday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Pakhar.  The circulation of Pakhar is still in the early organizational stages.  Most of the showers and thunderstorms are occurring west of the center of circulation.  An upper level ridge north of Pakhar is producing easterly winds which are blowing across the circulation.  Those easterly winds are probably responsible for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms on the western side of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Pakhar will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 18 hours.  Pakhar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 30°C.  The easterly winds in the upper levels are causing moderate vertical wind shear and the shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Pakhar will weaken when it moves across Luzon.  After Pakhar moves out over the South China Sea, it will move back over water where the SST is near 30°C.  The forecast suggests that there could be less vertical wind shear at that time and Pakhar has a chance to intensify into a typhoon when it moves away from the Philippines.

Pakhar is being steered westward by a subtropical ridge north of the tropical storm.  Pakhar is forecast to turn more toward the northwest when it crosses Luzon.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Pakhar will reach the coast of Luzon near Baler in 12 to 18 hours.  Pakhar is forecast to continue moving toward the northwest and it could make another landfall in China west of Hong Kong in about three days.  However, there is more uncertainty about the future track of Pakhar after the tropical storm exits Luzon.

Tropical Storm Pakhar could bring heavy rain to Luzon and cause flooding in some locations.  If Tropical Storm Pakhar intensifies over the South China Sea and makes landfall west of Hong Kong as a typhoon, it could seriously affect the efforts to recover from damage caused by Typhoon Hato which hit that same area a few days ago.

Strong Typhoon Nock-ten Makes Landfall in Luzon

Strong Typhoon Nock-ten made landfall in Luzon on Sunday after passing very close to Catanduanes Island.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Typhoon Nock-ten was located at latitude 13.5°N and longitude 123.5°E which put it near Tabaco and about 215 miles (345 km) east-southeast of Manila, Philippines.  Nock-ten was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (290 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 924 mb.

The circulation of Typhoon Nock-ten is very well organized.  There is a circular eye with a diameter of 14 miles (23 km) at the center of circulation.  A ring of very strong thunderstorms surrounds the eye and the strongest winds are occurring in those thunderstorms.  A second ring of thunderstorms nearly surrounds the inner eye and eyewall.  Nock-ten may have a double eyewall structure.  Additional bands of thunderstorms are occurring outside the core of the circulation.  Winds to typhoon force extend out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center.  The core of Typhoon Nock-ten is generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping out mass in all directions.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) is 31.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 15.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 47.1.  The indices indicate that Typhoon Nock-ten is capable of causing regional significant wind damage.

Typhoon Nock-ten will be moving through an atmospheric and oceanic environment that is supportive of tropical cyclones.  When the center of Typhoon Nock-ten is over water, it will move across areas where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  At times the center of Typhoon Nock-ten will move over portions of southern Luzon.  Nock-ten will weaken each time the center moves over land.  In addition, if an eyewall replacement cycle occurs, the strongest winds will slow as the inner eyewall decays.  However, the broader outer eyewall will cause Nock-ten to retain typhoon intensity for a longer period of time.

A subtropical ridge to the north of Nock-ten is steering the typhoon toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Nock-ten will pass near Naga, Calauag, Lucena, San Pablo,  and Manila in southern Luzon.

Typhoon Nock-ten is capable of doing significant wind damage.  Wind blowing water toward the coast will also create significant storm surges in east facing bays and inlets as the center of Nock-ten approaches.  When the center of circulation moves past parts of southern Luzon, the wind will shift to a southwesterly direction and there will be storms surges in in westerly facing bays and inlets.  Typhoon Nock-ten will produce very heavy rain over parts of southern Luzon.  Serious flooding and mudslides could occur in areas with steeper slopes.