Tag Archives: Manzanillo

Tropical Storm Xavier Causes Warning for Coast of Mexico

Potential impacts of Tropical Storm Xavier caused the government of Mexico to issue a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the coast.  The Tropical Storm Warning was in effect from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico.  At 1:00 p.m. EST the center of Tropical Storm Xavier was located at latitude 17.8°N and longitude 105.4°W which put it about 110 miles (175 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Xavier was moving toward the north at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

An upper level trough is producing strong southwesterly winds which are blowing toward the top of Tropical Storm Xavier.  Those winds are causing significant vertical wind shear and they blew the upper portion of Xavier northeast of the lower level circulation earlier on Sunday morning.  However, new thunderstorms formed around the center of circulation and in a rainband northeast of the center.  There are several bands of showers and thunderstorms west of the center of circulation.  The bands southeast of the center consist primarily of low clouds and showers.  The strongest winds are occurring in the northeast portion of Tropical Storm Xavier.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds are blowing to tropical storm force near the coast of Mexico which is why the Tropical Storm Warning was issued.

The future intensity of Tropical Storm Xavier will be determined by the strength of the upper level winds.  Xavier will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  So, there is plenty of energy in the upper ocean to support a tropical storm.  However, the upper level winds were almost strong enough to shear Xavier apart on Sunday morning.  If the upper level winds do not get any stronger, then Xavier could persist as a tropical storm for another day or two.  If the upper level winds do get stronger, which is the forecast of many numerical models, then Xavier will quickly weaken to a tropical depression.  The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center follows the second scenario and it weakens Xavier to a tropical depression by Monday night.

The upper level trough will also determine future track of Tropical Storm Xavier.  If the upper level winds allow Xavier to persist as a tropical storm, then the trough will steer Xavier north-northeast toward the coast of Mexico.  If the upper level winds blow the top of the circulation away from the lower level circulation, then the winds closer to the surface would turn the lower part of Xavier back toward the west.  The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center follows the second scenario.

Bands of showers and thunderstorms in the northeaster part of Tropical Storm Xavier are already dropping rain over the coastal regions of Colima and Jalisco.  Prolonged heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  Winds could reach tropical storm force along the coast even if the center of Tropical Storm Xavier does not make landfall.  There could also be a minor storm surge where the wind blows water toward the coast.

Tropical Storm Xavier Forms Southwest of Manzanillo

Tropical Storm Xavier formed southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico on Friday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Xavier was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 108.2°W which put it about 405 miles (650 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Xavier was moving toward the east-northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A center of circulation developed in an area of thunderstorms southwest of Mexico on Friday.  When more thunderstorms developed closer to the center of circulation on Friday night, the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Xavier.  The core of Tropical Storm Xavier was small.  The inner part of a band of showers and thunderstorms was wrapping around the center of circulation.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence.  Other short bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Xavier.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation, but the strongest winds were occurring primarily in the southeastern quadrant of Xavier.

Tropical Storm Xavier will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the weekend.  Xavier will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  So, there will be plenty of energy in the upper ocean to support intensification.  However, an upper level trough west of Xavier will produce strong southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical storm.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and they will inhibit upper level divergence to the west of Tropical Storm Xavier.  Xavier is likely to intensify on Saturday, but its small circulation means that it could weaken if the wind shear increases.

The upper level trough will also steer Tropical Storm Xavier in a north-northeasterly direction during the next day or two.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Xavier could approach the west coast of Mexico by Sunday night.

Tropical Storm Tara Develops South of Manzanillo

Tropical Storm Tara developed south of Manzanillo, Mexico on Monday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Tara was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 104.4°W which put it about 95 miles (155 km) south of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Tara was moving toward the west-northwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Tara is still organizing.  More thunderstorms are developing near the center of circulation.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms are beginning to form around the center.  Storms near the center are starting to generate upper level divergence which is pumping mass away to the east of the tropical storm.  The circulation around  Tropical Storm Tara is small.  Winds to tropical storm force only extend out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Tara will be in an environment somewhat favorable for intensification.  Tara will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level trough near Baja California will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear which will inhibit intensification.  The wind shear will not stop intensification, but they will slow it.  Tropical Storm Tara will remain close to Mexico and there is a chance that drier air from land could enter the northern part of the circulation.  Tropical Storm Tara is forecast to strengthen gradually.  However, because the circulation around Tropical Storm Tara is small, it could intensify or weaken very quickly if the environmental conditions change.

Tropical Storm Tara will be in an area where the steering currents are weak for another day or two.  Tara is forecast to move slowly toward the west-northwest during the next 24 to 48 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Tara will remain west of Mexico.  However, several forecast models predict that Tara will move more northward and make landfall west of Manzanillo.  The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for that portion of the coast in case Tara brings tropical storm force winds to the coast.

Tropical Storm Rosa Develops Southwest of Mexico

Tropical Storm Rosa developed southwest of Mexico on Tuesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Rosa was located at latitude 14.7°N and longitude 108.0°W which put it about 385 miles (620 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Rosa was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A distinct center of circulation consolidated in an area of thunderstorms southwest of Mexico on Tuesday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Rosa.  An inner rainband wrapped tightly around the center.  Several other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Storm Rosa.  The circulation was symmetrical and rainbands were occurring in all parts of the tropical storm.  Storms near the core began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from Rosa.

Tropical Storm Rosa will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Rosa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Rosa could intensify into a hurricane by later on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Rosa will move southwest of a middle level ridge over northern Mexico.  The ridge will steer Rosa in a general west-northwesterly direction during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Rosa will move southwest of Baja California later this week.

Bud Rapidly Intensifies Into a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Bud rapidly intensified Monday into a major hurricane southwest of Mexico.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Bud was located at latitude 16.7°N and longitude 106.8°W which put it about 265 miles (425 km) south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  Bud was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.  A Tropical Storm Watch remained in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

The circulation around Hurricane Bud is very well organized.  A circular eye exists at the center of circulation.  The eye is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds are occurring in the ring of storms.  A number of bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the core of the circulation.  The overall circulation is quite symmetrical and there are rainbands in all quadrants of Hurricane Bud.  Storms near the core are generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping mass away from the hurricane in all directions.

Hurricane Bud exhibits all of the characteristics of a well organized hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extend out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 140 miles (225 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Bud is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 12.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 34.5.

Hurricane Bud will move through an environment favorable for a major hurricane for another 12 to 24 hours.  Bud is currently over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C, but the Sea Surface Temperature of the water ahead of the hurricane is cooler.  Hurricane Bud will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Bud could intensify during the next 12 to 24 hours, because of little shear.  However, Bud is likely to weaken after that, when it moves over cooler water.

Hurricane Bud is moving near the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering the hurricane toward the northwest.  That general motion is expected to continue for another day or so.  Bud is forecast to turn more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track the core of Hurricane Bud is expected to remain west of the west coast of Mexico.  Bud could approach the southern part of Baja California in about four days.

Elsewhere, former Tropical Storm Aletta weakened to a tropical depression.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Aletta was located at latitude 16.8°N and longitude 117.8°W which put it about 665 miles (1070 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Aletta was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Bud Quickly Strengthens to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Bud quickly strengthened into a hurricane on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Bud was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 104.2°W which put it about 365 miles (590 km) south-southeast of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  Bud was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.  The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes.

Hurricane Bud strengthened quickly and the circulation exhibited the structure of a hurricane.  An eye formed at the center of circulation, although the eye was obscured intermittently by clouds.  A nearly complete ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in the ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the core of Hurricane Bud.  Most of the stronger rainbands were occurring in the eastern half of the circulation.  Winds near the core of Bud were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass allowed the pressure to decrease rapidly, which generated a stronger pressure gradient force and higher wind speeds.

Most of the stronger winds were occurring on the eastern side of Hurricane Bud.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 25 miles (40 km) to the east of the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 150 miles (240 km) to the east of the center.  The large area of tropical storm force winds on the eastern side of Hurricane Bud is the reason the government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the west coast of Mexico.

Hurricane Bud will continue to move through a very favorable environment for several more days.  Bud will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  Bud will move through a region where the upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Bud will strengthen more and it could intensify rapidly during the next day or two.  Bud could strengthen into a major hurricane on Monday or Tuesday.

Hurricane Bud is moving near the western end of a ridge over Mexico.  The ridge is steering Bud toward the northwest  and that motion is forecast to continue for another day or two.  Hurricane Bud is likely to move more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Bud will remain west of the west coast of Mexico.  Bud could approach the southern end of Baja California in four days.

Even though the center of Hurricane Bud is likely to remain west of the west coast of Mexico, some of the outer rainbands could move over parts of western Mexico.  Bud could bring gusty winds to places near the coast.  In addition Hurricane Bud could drop locally heavy rain in those areas and flash flooding will be possible.  Bud is likely to weaken before it reaches Baja California, but it could also bring gusty winds and heavy rains to that region later this week.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Aletta continued to weaken over cooler water.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Aletta was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 115.7°W which put it about 575 miles (925 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Aletta was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Aletta Strengthens Into a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Aletta strengthened into a hurricane on Thursday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Aletta was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 110.0°W which put it about 455 miles (730 km) west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Aletta was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

A circular eye developed at the center of Hurricane Aletta on Thursday afternoon.  The inner ends of several rainbands wrapped part of the way around the eye and a broken ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye.  The strongest winds were occurring in the broken ring of storms.  Several other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Aletta.  Storm near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 90 miles (150 km) from the center.

Hurricane Aletta will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Aletta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Aletta is likely to strengthen during the next day or two and it could intensify rapidly if the ring of storms completely encircles the eye.

Hurricane Aletta is moving southwest of a ridge over Mexico which is steering the hurricane toward the west-northwest.  Aletta could move a little more toward the northwest when it reaches the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Aletta will move farther away from the west coast of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Aletta Forms West of Mexico

Tropical Storm Aletta formed west of Mexico on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Aletta was located at latitude 14.3°N and longitude 108.4°W which put it about 425 miles (680 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Aletta was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation developed within a large area of showers and thunderstorms over the eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Mexico on Wednesday and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Aletta.  The circulation of Aletta was still organizing.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms developed east of the center of circulation.  The bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and low clouds.  Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from Tropical Storm Aletta.

Tropical Storm Aletta will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  Aletta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level trough located northwest of Tropical Storm Aletta will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Aletta will likely strengthen into a hurricane during the next several days.

Tropical Storm Aletta is moving south of a ridge over Mexico.  The ridge is steering Aletta toward the west.  A general motion toward the west-northwest is forecast for the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Aletta will move farther away from the west coast of Mexico.