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Typhoon Hagibis Strengthens to Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane over Northern Marianas

Typhoon Hagibis strengthened to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the Northern Marianas on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon was located at latitude 16.8°N and longitude 144.8°E which put it about 195 miles (305 km) north-northwest of Guam.  Hagibis was moving toward the west-northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 915 mb.

Typhoon Hagibis rapidly intensified into the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on Monday.  A small, pinhole eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  The strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  A rainband appeared to be wrapping around the original eye and eyewall and an eyewall replacement cycle could be underway.  The start of an eyewall replacement cycle may have ended the period of rapid intensification.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Hagibis.  Storms around the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.

The apparent beginning of an eyewall replacement cycle produced an increase in the size of the circulation around Typhoon Hagibis.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 250 miles (400 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Hagibis was 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 27.8 and the Hurricane Wind intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 62.8.  Hagibis was capable of causing catastrophic damage.

The center of Typhoon Hagibis passed north of Tinian and Saipan.  Hagibis would have produced very strong winds on some of the Northern Marianas.  The strongest winds would have occurred between Saipan and Alamagan.  Typhoon Hagibis also dropped heavy rain over Saipan, Tinian, Rota and Guam.

Typhoon Hagibis will remain in an environment very favorable for strong typhoons during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Hagibis will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Hagibis is likely to weaken, while the inner eyewall dissipates and the outer eyewall becomes the part of the typhoon with the strongest winds.  Hagibis could strengthen again if the outer eyewall begins to contract.  An eyewall replacement cycle would increase the size of the circulation.

Typhoon Hagibis will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Hagibis toward the northwest during the next several days.  Typhoon Hagibis will move toward the northeast after it moves around the western of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Hagibis could approach the coast of Honshu near Tokyo by the end of this week.

Typhoon Hagibis Rapidly Intensifies Into Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Typhoon Hagibis rapidly intensified into the equivalent of a major hurricane east of the Marianas on Sunday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the cener of Typhoon Hagibis was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 148.8°E which put it about 320 miles (515 km) east-northeast of Guam.  Hagibis was moving toward the west-northwest at 19 m.p.h. (31 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 953 mb.

Typhoon Warnings were in effect for Tinian, Saipan, Alamagan and Pagan.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Rota and Agrihan.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Guam.

Typhoon Hagibis intensified very rapidly on Sunday night.  The maximum sustained wind speed increased from 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) in six hours.  A small circular eye formed at the center of Hagibis and a ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye.  The strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the typhoon.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away in all directions.  The removal of mass was allowing the minimum surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Typhoon Hagibis was increasing in size.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Hagibis was 20.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 18.1 and the Hurricane Wind intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 38,3,  Typhoon Hagibis was capable of causing major damage.

Typhoon Hagibis will continue to move through an environment very favorable for intensification for another 24 to 36 hours.  Hagibis will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Hagibis could continue to intensify rapidly and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale during the next 24 hours.  At some point a rainband is likely to wrap around the existing eye and eyewall and an eyewall replacement cycle will end the intensification of Typhoon Hagibis.

Typhoon Hagibis will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Hagibis toward the west-northwest during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Hagibis will turn more toward the northwest in a day or so.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Hagibis will reach the Marianas in about 12 hours.  The center of Hagibis is likely to pass north of Saipan.  Typhoon Hagibis will bring strong winds and heavy rain.  It will be capable of causing major damage to the Northern Marianas.  Typhoon Hagibis could approach southwestern Japan in four or five days.

Hagibis Strengthens to a Typhoon, Warnings Issued for Marianas

Former Tropical Storm Hagibis strengthened into a typhoon Sunday and warnings were issued for the Marianas.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Hagibis was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 150.3°E which put it about 425 miles (685 km) east-northeast of Guam.  Hagibis was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Typhoon Warnings were in effect for Tinian, Saipan, Alamagan and Pagan.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Rota and Agrihan.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Guam.

Typhoon Hagibis exhibited much better organization on satellite images on Sunday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped almost entirely around the center of circulation and an eye was forming in the middle of Hagibis.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Hagibis.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon in all directions.  Winds to typhoon force extend out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 145 miles (230 km) from the center.

Typhoon Hagibis will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 48 to 72 hours.  Hagibis will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Hagibis will continue to intensify and it is likely to intensify rapidly once the eye and eyewall are fully developed.  Hagibis could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane within 36 hours and it could intensify to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale within 72 hours.

Typhoon Hagibis will move around the southwestern portion of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Hagibis toward the west-northwest during the next 24 to 48 hours.  Typhoon Hagibis will move more toward the northwest when it gets closer to western end of the ridge in a couple of days.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Hagibis will move through the Marianas in about 24 hours.  The center of Hagibis is forecast to pass north of Saipan.  Typhoon Hagibis will bring strong gusty winds and heavy rain to portions of the Northern Marianas.

Tropical Storm Hagibis Forms East of the Marianas

Tropical Storm Hagibis formed east of the Marianas on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Hagibis was located at latitude 15.0°N and longitude 155.0°E which put it about 735 miles (1185 km) east of Guam.  Hagibis was moving toward the west at 21 m.p.h. (34 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of a low pressure system east of the Marianas and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Hagibis.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Hagibis was organizing quickly.  The inner end of a band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the southern and eastern sides of the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms formed and were revolving around the center of Hagibis.  Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Hagibis will move through an environment very favorable for intensification.  Haigibis will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Hagibis will continue to strengthen and it could intensify rapidly once an eye and an eyewall create a fully developed inner core.  Hagibis could strengthen into a typhoon within 24 hours.  It could be the equivalent of a major hurricane in two or three days.

Tropical Storm Hagibis will move south of a subtropical ridge of high pressure over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Hagibis toward the west during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Hagibis will move toward the northwest next week when it gets closer to the western end of the subtropical ridge.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Hagibis could reach the Northern Marianas within 36 hours.  Hagibis could be a typhoon when it reaches the Marianas.

Tropical Storm Francisco Forms Northeast of the Marianas

Tropical Storm Francisco formed northeast of the Marianas  on Thursday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Francisco was located at latitude 20.4°N and longitude 152.4°E which put it about 800 miles (1290 km) east-southeast of Iwo To.  Francisco was moving toward the northwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A surface low pressure system developed southeast of an upper low north of the Marianas and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Francisco.  The distribution of thunderstorms around Francisco was asymmetrical.  Stronger thunderstorms were occurring east of the center of circulation and in a band south of the center of Tropical Storm Francisco.  Bands in other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The upper low was producing southwesterly winds which were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear was the main factor responsible for asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Storm Francisco will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Francisco will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper low north of the Marianas will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear during the next day or so.  Tropical Storm Francisco could intensify slowly on Friday.  Francisco will move farther north of the upper low over the weekend.  When it gets farther away from the upper low, the wind shear will diminish and Tropical Storm Francisco could strengthen more quickly.

Tropical Storm Francisco will move southwest of a subtropical ridge over Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Francisco toward the northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Francisco could be northeast of Iwo To in about 48 hours.  Francisco could approach southwestern Japan in about fours days.  It is forecast to be a typhoon by that time.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Wipha was moving slowly near the south coast of China.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Wipha was located at latitude 21.1°N and longitude 109.2°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) south of Beihai, China.  Wipha was moving toward the southwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Pola Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Pola strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Wednesday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Pola was located at latitude 20.2°S and longitude 177.6°W which put it about 170 miles (275 km) west-northwest of Nuku’alofa, Tonga.  Pola was moving toward the south-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

There was a small, circular eye at the center of Tropical Cyclone Pola.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Storms near the core of Pola were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Pola.  The strongest rainbands were occurring in the northwestern half of the circulation.  Bands in the southeastern half of Pola consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 40 miles (65 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 160 miles (260 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Pola will move through an environment favorable for support a strong tropical cyclone for another day or so.  Pola will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will not be much vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Pola could strengthen during the next 24 hours.  Pola will stat to move over cooler water on Thursday.  An upper level trough will approach Tropical Cyclone Pola from the west.  The trough will produce northwesterly winds which will increase the vertical wind shear.  A combination of cooler water and more vertical wind shear will cause Pola to weaken.  Tropical Cyclone Pola could make a transition to an extratropical cyclone later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Pola will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge over the South Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Pola toward the south-southwest during the next day or two.  Eventually, the upper level trough will turn Tropical Cyclone Pola toward the southeast.  On its anticipated track the core of Pola and the strongest winds will pass west of Tonga.  Rainbands on the eastern side of the circulation could bring gusty winds and heavy rain at times to parts of Tonga.

Elsewhere, Typhoo Wutip continued to weaken west-northwest of the Marianas.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Wutip was located at latitude 16.3°N and longitude 139.4°E which put it about 370 miles (595 km) west-northwest of Guam.  Wutip was moving toward the north-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Pola Organizes Quickly Between Fiji and Tonga

Tropical Cyclone Pola organized quickly between Fiji and Tonga on Tuesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Pola was located at latitude 18.8°S and longitude 176.7°W which put it about 185 miles (295 km) north-northwest of Nuku’alofa, Tonga.  Pola was moving toward the south at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 55 m.p.h. (90 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

A well organized low level center of circulation consolidated within a much larger area of showers and thunderstorms north of Tonga on Tuesday and the Fiji Meteorological Service classified the system as Tropical Cyclone Pola.  A small circular eye was beginning to appear at the center of circulation on some satellite images.  The eye was surrounded by a narrow ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Storms near the center of Pola were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Pola.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 175 miles (280 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Pola will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Pola will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Pola will intensify during the next day or so and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.  Pola will move over colder water and into a region where the upper level winds are stronger later this week and it will start to weaken at that time.

Tropical Cyclone Pola will move around the northwestern portion of a subtropical ridge over the South Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Pola in a southward direction.  On its anticipated track the core and strongest part of Tropical Cyclone Pola will pass west of Tonga.  The outer rainbands on the western side of the circulation could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southeastern Fiji.  Rainbands on the eastern side of the circulation could also bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Tonga.

Elsewhere, Typhoon Wutip was weakening west of the Marianas.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Wutip was located at latitude 15.7°N and longitude 139.9°E which put it about 345 miles (560 km) west-northwest of Guam.  Wutip was moving toward the north at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Typhoon Wutip Strengthens to Equivalent of a Category 5 Hurricane

Typhoon Wutip strengthened into the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Monday.  At 5:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Typhoon Wutip was located at latitude 14.0°N and longitude 140.1°E which put it about 300 miles (480 km) west-northwest of Guam.  Wutip was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km.h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 929 mb.

Typhoon Wutip completed an eyewall replacement cycle on Sunday and then it rapidly intensified into the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane.  The inner eyewall dissipated completely and the outer eyewall contracted around a circular, symmetrical eye.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the new eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Storms near the core of Typhoon Wutip were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Wutip.

Winds to typhoon force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Typhoon Wutip.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 160 miles (260 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Wutip was 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 51.6.

Typhoon Wutip will remain in an environment capable of supporting a strong typhoon for another 12 to 24 hours.  Wutip will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  A band of stronger westerly winds north of the Philippines will approach Typhoon Wutip in another day or so.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase and the increased shear will cause Wutip to weaken.

Typhoon Wutip will move southwest of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge is forecast to steer Wutip in a west-northwesterly direction.  On its forecast track Typhoon Wutip will gradually move farther away from the Northern Marianas.

Powerful Typhoon Wutip Moving West of Guam

Powerful Typhoon Wutip moved west of Guam on Saturday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Typhoon Wutip was located at latitude 12.9°N and longitude 141.9°E which put it about 170 miles (280 km) west-southwest of Guam.  Wutip was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 924 mb.  Typhoon Wutip was the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Visible and microwave satellite imagery  indicated that Typhoon Wutip may have started an eyewall replacement cycle.  An inner rainband wrapped around the original eye and eyewall.  An outer eyewall formed around the original inner eyewall.  The strongest winds were occurring in the inner eyewall.  The eyewall replacement cycle and the formation of an outer eyewall contributed to an increase in the size of Typhoon Wutip.  Winds to typhoon force extended out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 200 miles (320 km) from the center.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Wutip was 33.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 21.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 54.8.

Typhoon Wutip will move into an environment that will gradually become less favorable for strong typhoons.  Wutip will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  The eyewall replacement cycle will cause Typhoon Wutip to weaken when the inner eyewall starts to dissipate.  Wutip also appears to be moving toward a region of drier air.  Rainbands in the western side of Typhoon Wutip seemed to be weakening as they moved into the region of drier air.  Typhoon Wutip will weaken during the next few days.

Typhoon Wutip will move southwest of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Wutip toward the northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Wutip will move away from the Marianas.

Typhoon Wutip Strengthens to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane South of Guam

Typhoon Wutip strengthened into the equivalent of a major hurricane south of Guam on Friday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Typhoon Wutip was located at latitude 10.1°N and longitude 144.7°E which put it about 240 miles (385 km) south of Guam.  Wutip was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Guam, Rota and Faraulep.  Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for Tinian, Saipan, Agrihan and Pagan.

Typhoon Wutip was a very well organized tropical cyclone.  A small eye was at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Wutip.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.

Typhoon Wutip had a large circulation.  Winds to typhoon force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 185 miles (295 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Wutip was 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 17.3 and The Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 39.4.  Typhoon Wutip was capable of causing major damage.

Typhoon Wutip may be near its peak intensity.  Wutip will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  So, there is enough energy in the upper ocean to support a strong typhoon.  Typhoon Wutip has been in an area where the upper level winds were weak and there was little vertical wind shear.  The shear will remain small for another 12 to 24 hours.  Then an upper level trough will approach Typhoon Wutip from the west in a day or so.  The trough will bring southwesterly winds and the vertical wind shear will increase.  Wutip will start to weaken when the shear increases.

Typhoon Wutip will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  Wutip will gradually turn more toward the north while it moves around the end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track the core of Typhoon Wutip will pass west of Guam and the Northern Marianas.  Wutip could bring winds to tropical storm force to Guam and some of the other islands, which is why the warnings and watches were issued.