Tag Archives: Martinique

Tropical Storm Watches Issued for Windward Islands

Tropical Storm Watches were issued for the Windward Islands on Wednesday afternoon because of the forecast intensification of a tropical wave. The National Hurricane Center changed the designation of the tropical wave from Invest 97L to Potential Tropical Cyclone Five when it began issuing advisories on the system. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five was located at latitude 9.6°N and longitude 43.7°W which put it about 1195 miles (1920 km) east of the Windward Islands. The tropical wave was moving toward the west-northwest at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches were issued for Barbados, St. Vincent, the Grenadines, St. Lucia and Martinique.

A tropical wave east of the Windward Islands exhibited more organization on Wednesday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Potential Tropical Cyclone Five in order to be able to issue Tropical Storm Watches for several of the Windward Islands. The center of the tropical wave continued to be elongated. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing around the elongated center. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical wave. The strongest upper level divergence was to the west of the wave.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. The tropical wave will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27.5°C. It will move through a region where the winds in the upper and lower levels will blow from the east. The winds in the lower levels could be stronger, which would generate vertical wind shear. The shear will inhibit intensification, but Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is forecast to develop into a tropical storm.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next few days. The high is forecast to steer the tropical wave toward the west-northwest. On its anticipated track Potential Tropical Cyclone Five could approach the Windward Islands on Friday morning. It is forecast to be a tropical storm when it reaches the Windward Islands.

Potential Tropical Storm Prompts Warnings for Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, Leeward Islands

A low pressure system that has the potential to organize into a tropical storm prompted the issuance of Tropical Storm Warnings for Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and many of the Leeward Islands on Tuesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 53.7°W which put it about 585 miles (940 km) east-southeast of the Leeward Islands.  It was moving toward the west at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were issued for Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Antigua, Barbuda, the British Virgin Islands, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Martin, Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten.

The circulation around Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine was very broad and it stretched from the southwest toward the northeast.  The stronger thunderstorms were occurring in the southwestern and northeastern ends of the circulation.  There were few thunderstorms or bands in the broad middle of the low pressure system.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) on the northern side of the circulation.  The winds in the southern half of the low pressure system were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next two days.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The large broad circulation will contribute to a slow, gradual intensification.  If thunderstorms consolidate around a center of circulation and an inner core begins to form, then the system may be designated as a tropical storm.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the North Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer the potential tropical storm toward the west-northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine could approach the Leeward Islands on Wednesday morning.  It could approach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Wednesday night.  The large circulation means that Potential Tropical Nine will bring a prolonged period of gusty winds.  It could also drop heavy rain and cause flash floods on some islands.

Tropical Storm Dorian Brings Wind and Rain to Barbados

Tropical Storm Dorian brought wind and rain to Barbados on Monday night.  Observations made by a U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated that the center of Tropical Storm Dorian passed just south of Barbados on Monday night.  Dorian brought winds to tropical storm force and locally heavy rain.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located at latitude 13.2°N and longitude 59.7°W which put it about 95 miles (155 km) east-southeast of St. Lucia.  Dorian was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Barbados, St. Lucia, Martinique, St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for Puerto Rico, Grenada, Dominica, Saba and St. Eustatius.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Dorian remained fairly small on Monday.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Thunderstorms were occurring primarily in bands in the northern half of the circulation.  Bands in the southern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Dorian were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Dorian will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification.  Dorian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  Tropical Storm Dorian will move south of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear should not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Dorian will move just south of a large mass of drier air.  It appears that some drier air will get pulled into circulation at times and the drier air will interrupt periods of intensification.  Since the circulation around Tropical Storm Dorian is very small, Dorian could strengthen or weaken very quickly if environmental conditions change.

Tropical Storm Dorian will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Dorian toward the west-northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Dorian will pass near St. Lucia on Tuesday morning.  Dorian could approach Puerto Rico on Wednesday.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Depression Six formed off the southeast coast of the U.S.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Six was located at latitude 31.5N and longitude 72.2W which put it about 320 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. It was moving toward the east at 3 m.p.h. The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

Stronger Tropical Storm Dorian Causes Warnings for Lesser Antilles

Tropical Storm Dorian strengthened on Sunday and the threat it posed caused warnings and watches to be issued for some of the Lesser Antilles.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Barbados, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines.  Tropical Storm Watches were issued for Grenada and Martinique.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located at latitude 11.5°N and longitude 54.2°W which put it about 375 miles (605 km) east-southeast of Barbados.  Dorian was moving a little to the north of due west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Dorian exhibited greater organization on Sunday afternoon.  The inner end of a band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped tightly around the northern and western sides of the center of circulation.  The strongest winds were occurring in that band.  Several other bands of showers and storms were revolving around the small core of Dorian.  Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the north of the tropical storm.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Dorian was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Dorian will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification.  Dorian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are relatively weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  A large area of drier air is north of Tropical Storm Dorian.  If the circulation draws drier air into the tropical storm, it would interrupt intensification.  Tropical Storm Dorian is likely to strengthen during the next 24 to 48 hours.  Since Dorian has a small circulation, it could intensify or weaken quickly if the environmental conditions change.

Tropical Storm Dorian will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the North Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Dorian toward the west-northwest during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Dorian could approach Barbados late on Monday.  It could be a hurricane by that time.  Dorian could reach the southern and central Lesser Antilles on Tuesday.  Tropical Storm Dorian could bring strong winds and heavy rain to those islands.

Tropical Storm Kirk Redevelops East of Lesser Antilles, Warnings Issued

Tropical Storm Kirk redeveloped east of the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday morning and Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches were issued for some of those islands.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located at latitude 12.1°N and longitude 54.3°W which put it about 360 miles (575 km) east-southeast of Barbados.  Kirk was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for Barbados, St. Lucia, Dominica, Martinique and Guadeloupe.  A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) indicated that former Tropical Storm Kirk had weakened to a tropical wave on Monday and NHC ceased issuing advisories on the system.  The remnants of former Tropical Storm Kirk moved quickly westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean.  More thunderstorms began developing in the system on Tuesday.  NHC determined that sufficient thunderstorms had formed near the center of circulation by Wednesday morning to reclassify the system as a tropical cyclone and it started issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Kirk again.

A cluster of strong thunderstorms developed near the center of Tropical Storm Kirk.  Thunderstorms were also forming in several bands which were revolving around the center of circulation.  Thunderstorms near the core of Kirk were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the east of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Kirk will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Kirk will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are not too strong.  There will be some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification in the short term.  When Tropical Storm Kirk moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea, it will encounter stronger westerly winds and the vertical wind shear will increase.

Tropical Storm Kirk will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The subtropical high will steer Kirk on a path a little north of due west.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Kirk could be near Barbados on Thursday morning.  Kirk could reach the Lesser Antilles later on Thursday.  Tropical Storm Kirk will bring gusty winds and it could drop locally heavy rain.

Hurricane Florence Moves Closer to the Carolinas

Hurricane Florence moved closer to the Carolinas on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Florence was located at latitude 32.0°N and longitude 73.7°W which put it about 280 miles (455 km) east-southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina.  Florence was moving toward the northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 957 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from South Santee River, South Carolina to Duck, North Carolina including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.  A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Edisto Beach, South Carolina to South Santee River, South Carolina.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of coast from Duck, North Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginia border.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the North Carolina-Virginia border to Cape Charles Light, Virginia and for Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort.

The wind speed in Hurricane Florence decreased on Wednesday but the circulation increased in size.  It appeared that another eyewall replacement cycle could have started.  Satellite microwave images suggested that there could be two eyewalls and a reconnaissance plane reported a double wind maxima.  Both of those things could be evidence of concentric eyewalls.  In addition, counterclockwise flow around a small upper level low near Florida may have produced southerly winds that blew toward the south side of Hurricane Frances.  Those winds may have inhibited the upper level divergence to the south of Florence.  Since the hurricane was unable to pump out as much mass, the surface pressure increased and the wind speed decreased.

The circulation of Hurricane Florence increased in size on Wednesday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 200 miles (320 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Florence was 19.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 25.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 44.7.  Those indices are very similar to the numbers for Hurricane Jeanne just before Jeanne made landfall in southeast Florida in 2004.

Hurricane Florence will move through an environment favorable for intensification on Thursday.  Florence will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  Florence will move farther away from the upper low near Florida and the low should not inhibit divergence to the south of the hurricane as much.  In addition, Hurricane Florence will move over the warm water in the Gulf Stream about 6 to 12 hours before it reaches the coast.  It will be able to extract extra energy at that time.  If the inner core becomes more organized, then Hurricane Florence could intensify on Thursday.  If the inner core does not get better organized, then Florence will likely maintain its current intensity or weaken slowly.

Hurricane Florence will move near the western end of the subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Florence toward the northwest on Thursday.  On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Florence will be near the coast of North Carolina on Thursday night.  A ridge over the eastern U.S. is likely to block the northward motion of Hurricane Florence when it reaches the coast.  The ridge will steer Florence slowly toward the west-southwest on Friday and Saturday.

Hurricane Florence will have the impact of a major hurricane regardless of the actual sustained wind speed.  The large circulation and slow rate of movement when Florence reaches the coast means that locations could experience strong winds for extended periods of time.  Wind damage and power outages could be extensive.  Some places in North Carolina had a rainy summer and strong winds could uproot trees.  Hurricane Florence will produce a dangerous storm surge along the coast.  The surge could exceed 10 feet (3 meters) in some locations east of where the center makes landfall.  The slow forward speed also means that Hurricane Florence could drop locally heavy rain and severe flooding could occur.

Elsewhere the rest of the Atlantic Ocean was also very active.  Tropical Storm Isaac was nearing the Lesser Antilles, Hurricane Helene was weakening south of the Azores and Subtropical Storm Joyce formed northwest of Helene.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 58.0°W which put it about 220 miles (355 km) east of Dominica.  Isaac was moving toward the west at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Guadeloupe, Martinique and Dominica.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Antigua, Montserrat, St, Kitts and Nevis, Saba and St. Eustatius, St. Martin and St. Maarten.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Helene was located at latitude 22.4°N and 36.9°W which put it about 1270 mile (2045 km) south-southwest of the Azores.  Helene was moving toward the north at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (155 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Subtropical Storm Joyce was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 46.6°W which put it about 910 miles (1465 km) west-southwest of the Azores.  Joyce was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Hurricane Warnings Issued for Carolinas for Hurricane Florence

Hurricane Warnings were issued for the Carolinas on Tuesday for the potential impacts of Hurricane Florence.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Florence was located at latitude 28.4°N and longitude 68.7°W which put it about 670 miles (1075 km) east-southeast of Cape Fear, North Carolina.  Florence was moving toward the west-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (270 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 946 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from South Santee River, South Carolina to Duck, North Carolina.  Hurricane Watches were in effect for the portions of the coast from Edisto Beach to South Santee River, South Carolina and from Duck, North Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginia border.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the portions of the coast from Duck, North Carolina to Cape Charles Light, Virginia and for Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort.

Hurricane Florence completed an eyewall replacement cycle and it continues to be a powerful hurricane.  There was a circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (48 km) at the center of Florence.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  The eyewall replacement cycle resulted in a larger circulation.

Winds to hurricane force extended out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation of Hurricane Florence.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 175 miles (280 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Florence was 28.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 18.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 47.1.  Hurricane Florence is capable of causing extensive significant damage.

Hurricane Florence will move through an environment favorable for strong hurricanes during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Florence will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  it will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Florence is likely to maintain its intensity and it could strengthen.  If another eyewall replacement cycle occurs, then there could be fluctuations in intensity.

Hurricane Florence will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Florence toward the west-northwest during the next 24 to 36 hours.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Florence could approach the coast of the Carolinas later on Thursday.  The steering winds are forecast to weaken when Florence nears the coast and there is great uncertainty about the track when that occurs.  Hurricane Florence will bring strong winds to coastal North Carolina and eastern South Carolina.  Wind pushing water toward the shore will cause a significant storm surge.  A slow forward speed will mean that Hurricane Florence will drop a lot of rain and there is a risk of significant flooding of rivers and streams.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Isaac was speeding toward the Lesser Antilles and Hurricane Helene was weakening far south of the Azores.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 52.3°W which put it about 580 miles (935 km) east of Martinique.  Isaac was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Dominica, Martinique and Guadeloupe.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Antigua, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Saba and St. Eustatius.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Helene was located at latitude 18.0°N and longitude 35.4°W which put it about 1479 miles (2370 km) south-southwest of the Azores.  Helene was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Hurricane Florence Causes Watches for Carolinas, Isaac for the Lesser Antilles

The potential impacts of Hurricane Florence caused Hurricane Watches to be issued for the Carolinas on Tuesday morning while the approach of Tropical Storm Isaac also caused Watches to be issued for some of the Lesser Antilles.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Florence was located at latitude 26.7°N and longitude 65.3°W which put it about 905 miles (1455 km) east-southeast of Cape Fear, North Carolina.  Florence was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 950 mb.  A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Edisto Beach, South Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginia border including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

Hurricane Florence was nearing the end of an eyewall replacement cycle on Tuesday morning.  A thin ring of showers and thunderstorms around the center of circulation was all that was left of the original eyewall.  A larger ring of thunderstorms surrounded an eye with a diameter of 36 miles (58 km).  Several other bands of showers and thunderstorms surround the new, larger eyewall.  Storms near the core of Hurricane Florence generated strong upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The eyewall replacement cycle temporarily weakened Hurricane Florence, but it also made the circulation larger.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 40 miles (65 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 150 miles (240 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Florence was 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 15.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 40.4.

Hurricane Florence will be moving through an environment favorable for strong hurricanes.  Florence will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Florence is likely to strengthen during the next 24 hours, but additional eyewall replacement cycles could cause the intensity to fluctuate.

Hurricane Florence will move around the western end of the subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Florence in a general west-northwesterly direction.  On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Florence could approach the coast of North Carolina and South Carolina on Thursday.  It will very likely be a major hurricane at that time.

Tropical Storm Isaac moved steadily toward the Lesser Antilles and Watches were issued for some of those islands.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 49.7°W which put it about 775 miles (1250 km) east of the Lesser Antilles.  Isaac was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.  Hurricane Watches were in effect for Guadeloupe, Martinique and Dominica.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Antigua and Montserrat.

Elsewhere over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Helene moved far south of the Azores.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Helene was located at latitude 16.5°N and longitude 34.3°W which put it about 1550 miles (2495 km) south-southwest of the Azores.  Helene was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 966 mb.

Tropical Storm Chris Develops South of Cape Hatteras, Beryl Nears Lesser Antilles

Tropical Storm Chris developed south of Cape Hatteras on Sunday morning, while Tropical Storm Beryl neared the Lesser Antilles.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Chris was located at latitude 32.9°N and longitude 75.0°W which put it about 160 miles (260 km) south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Chris was nearly stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Thunderstorms developed closer to the center of circulation on Sunday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated former Tropical Depression Three as Tropical Storm Chris.  The circulation of Chris was organizing quickly.  A band of showers and thunderstorms was wrapping around the center of circulation.  Several other rainbands were revolving around the core of the tropical storm.  The bands northwest of the center were weaker because there was drier air in that part of Chris.  The storms near the center of circulation were beginning to generate upper level divergence.

Tropical Storm Chris will remain in an environment favorable for intensification for the next two or three days.  The water in the upper portion of the Atlantic Ocean east of the Carolinas is warmer than normal.  Tropical Storm Chris will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  Chris will be southeast of an upper level trough over the northeastern quarter of the U.S. and it will be under a small upper level ridge.  The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Chris will continue to intensify and it could strengthen to a hurricane in the next day or two.

Since Tropical Storm Chris is under the small upper level ridge, the steering winds are weak.  Chris may not move much during the next 24 to 48 hours.  Tropical Storm Chris is forecast to linger of the coast of the Carolinas for several days.  Eventually an upper level trough will approach from the west and start to push Chris toward the northeast.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Beryl was nearing the Lesser Antilles on Sunday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located at latitude 14.4°N and longitude 57.9°W which put it about 210 miles (335 km) east of Martinique.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Dominica and Guadeloupe.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, St. Martin, Martinique, St. Lucia, and St. Barthelemy.

Thunderstorms continued to develop near the center of Tropical Storm Beryl on Sunday morning and the weakening trend halted at least temporarily.  Beryl remained a small tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  There were several bands of showers and thunderstorms in the eastern half of Tropical Storm Beryl.  The bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and low clouds.

Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast to into a region where the easterly winds in the lower levels are stronger.  That would increase the vertical wind shear and make it difficult for the circulation to stay vertically coherent.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  So, there will be enough energy in the upper ocean to support a tropical storm if the wind shear is not too strong.  Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast to weaken when it moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea, but that will depend on how strong the vertical shear gets.

Tropical Storm Beryl is moving south of the subtropical high over the Atlantic Ocean which is steering Beryl toward the west-northwest.  A general motion toward the west-northwest is forecast to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Beryl will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to St. Lucia, Martinique, Dominica and Guadeloupe during the next few hours,

Tropical Storm Beryl Weakens East of the Lesser Antilles

Tropical Storm Beryl weakened on Saturday as it move closer to the Lesser Antilles.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of circulation was located at latitude 13.1°N and longitude 54.3°W which put it about 495 miles (795 km) east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Dominica and Guadeloupe.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Martinique, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, Barbados and St. Lucia.

Tropical Storm Beryl moved into a region where the easterly winds in the lower level were stronger and the increased vertical wind shear started to blow the lower part of the circulation to the west of the upper part of Beryl.  It also seemed to move into an area of drier air, which caused most of the stronger thunderstorms to weaken.  There was still a well organized circulation in the lower levels, but it weakened on Saturday.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation and on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Beryl in recent hours.  If those storms persist then Beryl could strengthen again, but if they dissipate quickly, then the tropical storm could weaken again on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Beryl will move through an environment that contains factors that are favorable for intensification and other factors that are unfavorable.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It will move through an area where the lower level winds are stronger and so there will be more vertical wind shear.  There will be areas of moister air within a larger area of drier air.  If the recently developed thunderstorms persist on Sunday, then the Beryl could strengthen again.  However, if the storms dissipate in a few hours, then Tropical Storm Beryl could weaken further.  The small size of the circulation means that rapid changes in intensity can occur.

Tropical Storm Beryl was moving south of the subtropical high over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high was steering Beryl toward the west-northwest and that general motion is forecast to continue for the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Beryl could reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday night.  There is a lot of uncertainty about how strong Beryl may be when it reaches those islands.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean Tropical Depression Three spun south of Cape Hatteras.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Three was located at latitude 32.9°N and longitude 75.1°W which put it about 160 miles (260 km) south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  It was nearly stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1014 mb.