Tag Archives: Mexico

TD 20-E Strengthens into Tropical Storm Raymond

Tropical Depression Twenty-E strengthened into Tropical Storm Raymond on Friday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Raymond was located at latitude 14.1°N and longitude 108.8°W which put it about 610 miles (985 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Raymond was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Raymond exhibited greater organization on Friday morning.  More thunderstorms developed close to the center of circulation.  Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  The distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  More of the stronger thunderstorms were forming in bands in the eastern half of the circulation.  There were fewer thunderstorms in the bands around the western side of Raymond.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the eastern half of the tropical storm.  Wind speeds on the western side of the circulation were mostly less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Raymond will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Raymond will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  it will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Raymond is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen into a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Raymond will move around the western side of a ridge of high pressure over Mexico.  The ridge will steer Raymond toward the north during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Raymond will move slowly toward the southern tip of Baja California.

Tropical Depression Twenty-E Forms South of Baja California

Tropical Depression Twenty-E formed south of Baja California on Thursday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-E was located at latitude 13.0°N and longitude 108.4°W which put it about 690 miles (1110 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  The depression was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h.(8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of a low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Thursday night and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Twenty-E.  The circulation around the depression was still organizing.  Thunderstorms were forming near the center of the depression.   The thunderstorms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the depression.  Other thunderstorms were developing in bands around the circulation.

Tropical Depression Twenty-E will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next day or two.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The depression is likely to strengthen into a tropical storm on Friday.

Tropical Depression Twenty-E will move around the western end of a ridge of high pressure over Mexico.  The ridge will steer the depression toward the north.  On its anticipated track the depression will move slowly toward the southern tip of Baja California.

Tropical Storm Priscilla Develops Near West Coast of Mexico

Tropical Storm Priscilla developed near the west coast of Mexico on Sunday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Priscilla was located at latitude 18.6°N and longitude 104.0°W which put it about 55 miles (90 km) southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Priscilla was moving toward the north at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was  1004 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico.

A distinct low level center of circulation formed within a cluster of thunderstorms near the west coast of Mexico on Sunday and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Priscilla.  Thunderstorms were forming near the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were also developing and the bands were revolving around the center of Priscilla.  Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the north of the tropical storm.  The circulation around Priscilla was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Priscilla will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  The center of Priscilla will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will be in a region where the upper level winds are not too strong and there will not be a lot of vertical wind shear.  However, the center of Tropical Storm Priscilla will be very close to Mexico.  The circulation around Priscilla will begin to pull drier air from over the land into the tropical storm.  Tropical Storm Priscilla could strengthen during the next few hours, but it is likely to weaken quickly when the center moves over Mexico.

Tropical Storm Priscilla will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high will steer Priscilla on a track that will be a little to the west of straight north.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Priscilla will make landfall on the west coast of Mexico between Tecoman and Manzanillo within a few hours.  Priscilla could drop locally heavy rain which could cause flash floods in some places.

Tropical Storm Octave Forms over Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Storm Octave formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Thursday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Octave was located at latitude 9.8°N and longitude 127.2°W which put it about 1455 miles (2345 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Octave was moving toward the west at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of a small low pressure system between Mexico and Hawaii and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Octave.  The circulation around Octave exhibited more organization and tropical characteristics on Thursday evening.  There was a distinct low level center of circulation with thunderstorms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Octave was small.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Octave will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification.  Octave will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is 28°C.  It will be in a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, there appears to be drier air north of Tropical Storm Octave.  If the circulation pulls drier air into the core of Octave, then thunderstorms around the center would weaken which would make intensification unlikely.  Tropical Storm Octave could strengthen a little during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Octave will be in a region where the winds at the steering level are weak.  Octave is forecast to move little during the next few days.  Because Tropical Storm Octave will not move much, it will remain well away from any land area.

Low Pressure System Forms Over Southwest Gulf of Mexico

A surface low pressure system formed over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of the low pressure system was located at latitude 20.8°N and longitude 95.4°W which put it about 70 miles (110 km) east-southeast of Nautla, Mexico.  The low was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

The northern end of a trough of low pressure moved over the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday and a surface low formed when the trough moved over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of the low pressure system.  Divergence from a surface high pressure system over the U.S. was converging with the northern periphery of the circulation around the surface low and a band of showers and thunderstorms was occurring over the west central Gulf of Mexico.  Storms near the center of the low were starting to generate some upper level divergence.

The low pressure system will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  The low will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under an upper level ridge where the winds are weak and divergent.  The low could intensify slowly if it gets better organized on Thursday.  The National Hurricane Center is indicating that there is a 60% probability of formation of either a tropical or subtropical storm.  A reconnaissance plane has been tentatively tasked to investigate the low pressure system on Thursday afternoon.

The upper level ridge over the surface low pressure system will steer the low toward the northeast during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the low could approach the northeastern coast of the Gulf of Mexico on Friday.  The low will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain.  The winds will generate higher waves and there could be a storm surge of 3 to 6 feet (1 to 2 meters).

Tropical Low Pressure System Will Drop Heavy Rain on Southern Mexico

A tropical low pressure system designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E by the National Hurricane Center will drop heavy rain on parts of southern Mexico.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E was located at latitude 13.7°N and longitude 93.4°W which put it about 210 miles (340 km) southeast of Salina Cruz, Mexico.  It was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was1005 mb.

The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the portion of the coast from Barra de Tonala to Puerto Escondido.

A large low pressure system moved slowly from the western Caribbean Sea into the extreme Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Guatemala during the past few days.  The low pressure system dropped heavy rain over parts of Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala and Belize.  Several smaller centers of circulation developed within the larger low pressure system on Tuesday.  More thunderstorms developed around one of the smaller centers west of Guatemala on Tuesday evening and the sustained wind speed increased to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h).  Some bands of showers and thunderstorms were beginning to develop around the low pressure system.  A potential primary rainband appeared to be wrapping around the western and southern portions of the center of circulation.

The low pressure system will move through an environment favorable for some intensification on Wednesday.  The low will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29.5°C.  An upper level high over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will produce northeasterly winds which will blow toward the top of the low pressure system.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear which will inhibit intensification.  The low pressure system will be close to the coast of Mexico, which will also limit intensification.  The low pressure system could intensify while the center is over the warm water.  It is forecast to become a tropical storm on Wednesday, which is why the Tropical Storm Watch was issued.

A high pressure system over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Caribbean Sea will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E toward the northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the low pressure system could make landfall on the coast of Mexico between Barra de Tonala and Puerto Escondido within 24 hours.  It will bring gusty winds to that portion of the coast.  The low pressure system will drop heavy rain on parts of Chiapas and Oaxaca.  It could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Narda Moves Along West Coast of Mexico

Tropical Storm Narda moved along the west coast of Mexico on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Narda was located at latitude 24.0°N and longitude 107.4°W which put it about 85 miles (135 km) northwest of Mazatlan, Mexico.  Narda was moving toward the northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from San Blas to Guaymas, Mexico.

The center of Tropical Storm Narda move just to the west of the coast of Mexico on Monday, which allowed Narda to strengthen during the day.  A distinct low level center of circulation was evident on satellite images.  The center was over the warm water in the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  A ring of strong thunderstorms formed around the center of circulation and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Storms near the center of Narda were generating upper level divergence.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Narda.  The strongest rainbands were over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Mexico.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  The stronger winds were also occurring in the rainbands over the water.

Tropical Storm Narda could strengthen further during the next 12 to 24 hours, if the center of circulation remains over water.  Narda will move over a portion of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level ridge over Mexico was producing southeasterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds were causing some vertical wind shear, but the shear was not strong enough to prevent intensification.  However, the center of Tropical Storm Narda is very near the west coast of Mexico and Narda will start to weaken again whenever the center moves inland.

The upper level ridge over Mexico will continue to steer Tropical Storm Narda toward the northwest for several more days.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Narda will continue to move very close to the west coast of Mexico.  Any wobble toward the east could bring the center of Narda inland again.  Tropical Storm Narda will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to coastal parts of Sinaloa and Sonora.  Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some parts of western Mexico.

Tropical Storm Narda Brings Rain to Mexico

Tropical Storm Narda brought rain to parts of the west coast of Mexico on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Narda was located at latitude 19.1°N and longitude 103.3°W which put it about 55 miles (90 km) east of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Narda was moving toward the northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

The center of former Tropical Storm Narda made landfall on the west coast of Mexico between Lazaro Cardenas and Manzanillo on Sunday.  Narda weakened to a tropical depression after the center moved over land.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were dropping locally heavy rain along and just inland of the portion of the coast from Acapulco to Manzanillo, Mexico.  The rain could be heavy enough in some locations to cause flash floods.

Tropical Depression Narda is moving around the western side of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high is steering Narda quickly toward the northwest.  Tropical Depression Narda will move along the west coast of Mexico during the next day or two.  The center of Narda could move back over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean near Cabo Corrientes.  Tropical Depression Narda will continue to drop heavy rain near the coast while it moves toward the northwest.

Tropical Storm Narda Forms South of Mexico

Tropical Storm Narda formed south of Mexico late on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Narda was located at latitude 15.4°N and longitude 100.6°W which put it about 115 miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.  Narda was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (15 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

An area of low pressure exhibited more organization late on Saturday and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Narda.  A low level center of circulation formed within the area of low pressure.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms developed and began to revolve around the center of circulation.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms were in bands in the western half of the circulation.  Bands in the eastern half of the circulation contained more showers and lower clouds.  An area of winds to tropical storm force was occurring about 120 miles (195 km) southeast of the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Narda will move through an environment only marginally favorable for intensification on Sunday.  Narda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  However, an upper level ridge over Mexico will produce northeasterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear which will inhibit intensification.  In addition, the circulation could draw drier air into the northern portion of the tropical storm.  Tropical Storm Narda is not likely to strengthen much during the next 12 to 24 hours.

The ridge over Mexico will steer Tropical Storm Narda toward the northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Narda will approach the coast of Mexico near Lazaro Cardenas in about 12 hours.  Narda will move along the coast toward Cabo Corrientes.  Tropical Storm Narda could drop locally heavy rain in parts of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco.  The rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Lorena Brings Rain to Northwestern Mexico

Tropical Storm Lorena brought rain to parts of northwestern Mexico on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday was located at latitude 27.6°N and longitude 111.2°W which put it about 35 miles (55 km/h) southwest of Guaymas, Mexico.  Lorena was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gust to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Huatabampito to Puerto Libertad, Mexico.

Former Hurricane Lorena weakened on Saturday as it moved northward across the Gulf of California.  The inner core of Lorena was disrupted on Saturday morning when the eye moved near the southern tip of Baja California.  An upper level trough over the southwestern U.S. produced strong southwesterly winds which caused moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear inhibited the development of new thunderstorms while Tropical Storm Lorena moved over the warm water in the Gulf of California.  By Saturday night the strongest thunderstorms were occurring just to the northeast of the center circulation.

Tropical Storm Lorena will make landfall on the west coast of Mexico near Guaymas on Saturday night.  Lorena will move northward over Sonora toward Hermosillo after it make landfall.  Tropical Storm Lorena is a small storm and it will weaken rapidly when it moves inland.  Lorena will drop locally heavy rain over parts of Sonora.  The locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.