Tag Archives: Mexico

Tropical Depression Four-E Forms Southwest of Baja California

Tropical Depression Four-E formed just southwest of Baja California on Monday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was located at latitude 20.5°N and longitude 112.6°W which put it about 240 miles (385 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  The depression was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system southwest of Baja California exhibited more organization on Monday night and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Four-E.  The distribution of thunderstorms around the depression was asymmetrical.  A band of stronger thunderstorms wrapped around the northern side of the center of circulation.  The strongest winds were occurring in that band of storms.  Bands in other parts of the depression consisted of primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Depression Four-E will move into an environment mostly unfavorable for intensification.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 24.5°C.  An upper level trough over the western U.S. and an upper level ridge over Mexico will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the depression.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The colder water and moderate shear will prevent the potential for significant intensification.  The depression could maintain its intensity during the next six to twelve hours but it is likely to weaken later on Tuesday.

Tropical Depression Four-E will move around the western end of a ridge of high pressure over Mexico.  The ridge will steer the depression slowly toward the northwest.   On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Four-E will pass west of Baja California.

Tropical Depression Cristobal Moves North, Watches Issued for U.S. Gulf Coast

Tropical Depression Cristobal began to move toward the north on Friday morning and watches were issued for parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Cristobal was located at latitude 20.0°N and longitude 89.9°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km) east of Campeche, Mexico.  Cristobal was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana to the border between Alabama and Florida including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.  The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the portion of the coast from Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos.

The circulation around Tropical Depression Cristobal exhibited more organization on Friday morning.  Bands of strong thunderstorms wrapped around the eastern and northern portions of the circulation.  Bands in the southern and western sides of Cristobal still consisted primarily of shower and lower clouds.  The center of circulation was still over the Yucatan peninsula and there were not a lot of thunderstorms close to the center.

Tropical Depression Cristobal will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  Cristobal will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be large enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Depression Cristobal will strengthen into a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Depression Cristobal will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Cristobal toward the north during the next 36 to 48 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Depression Cristobal could approach the coast of Louisiana on Sunday afternoon.  Cristobal is likely to be a tropical storm when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast but there is a slight chance it could be a hurricane at that time.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will bring gusty winds to the north central Gulf Coast.  Those winds will push water toward the shore and they will generate a storm surge along the coast.  Many places could experience a rise in the water level of 1 to 4 feet (0.3 to 1.3 meters).  In some locations the water level could rise 4 to 6 feet (1.3 to 2.0 meters).  Rainbands on the northern and eastern sides of Cristobal could drop heavy rain.  Flood Watches have been issued for parts of southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into Tropical Depression Cristobal on Friday evening.  Their observations should provide important information about the circulation around Cristobal.

Tropical Depression Cristobal Meanders over the Yucatan

Tropical Depression Cristobal meandered over the Yucatan peninsula on Thursday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Cristobal was located at latitude 17.8°N and longitude 90.4°W which put it about 145 miles (235 km) south of Campeche, Mexico.  Cristobal was moving toward the east at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Depression Cristobal weakened on Thursday while the circulation meandered over the Yucatan peninsula.  Winds speeds gradually diminished because much of the circulation of Cristobal was over land.  Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  There were still strong thunderstorms in bands in the eastern half of the circulation.  Some of those bands were dropping heavy rain over the Yucatan peninsula, northern Belize and northern Guatemala.

Tropical Depression Cristobal will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea during the next several days.  The high will steer Cristobal toward the north.  On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Cristobal will move over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday.  Cristobal could approach the coast around the northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

Tropical Depression Cristobal will move into an environment somewhat favorable for intensification when it moves over the Gulf of Mexico.  Cristobal will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will be large enough to slow intensification but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent strengthening of Cristobal.  Tropical Depression Cristobal is likely to intensify back into a tropical storm over the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Cristobal could approach the coast of Louisiana on Sunday.  Watches could be issued for portions of the coast on Friday.

Tropical Storm Cristobal Drops Heavy Rain on Campeche

Tropical Storm Cristobal dropped heavy rain on Campeche on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located at latitude 18.3°N and longitude 91.8°W which put it about 20 miles (35 km) south of Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico.  Cristobal was moving toward the southeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning remained in effect for the portion of the coast from Campeche to Coatzacoalcos,, Mexico.

The center of Tropical Storm Cristobal move slowly onto the coast of Mexico just west of Ciudad del Carmen on Wednesday.  The circulation around Cristobal began to weaken slowly as the center moved over land.  However, the large circulation around Tropical Storm Cristobal meant that a significant portion of the tropical storm was still over water.  That allowed Cristobal to extract energy from the Bay of Campeche to support its circulation.

A weather radar at Sabancuy, Mexico showed that the circulation around Tropical Storm Cristobal remained well organized.  Strong bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Cristobal.  The bands were dropping heavy rain over parts of Campeche and flooding was likely in some areas that received persistent heavy rain.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will be near the center of a larger counterclockwise circulation sometimes called a Central American Gyre (CAG) during the next 24 to 36 hours.  The steering currents are weak at the center of the CAG and it will likely cause Cristobal to move in a slow counterclockwise loop on Thursday.  The CAG will contract around Tropical Storm Cristobal during the next day or so.  A high pressure system over the western North Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea will start to steer Cristobal toward the north on Friday.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Cristobal could approach the north coast of the Gulf of Mexico by late in the upcoming weekend.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will weaken slowly while the center is over land.  It could weaken to a tropical depression on Thursday.  However, Cristobal will continue to drop heavy rain over Campeche and parts of the Yucatan peninsula.  Very serious flooding could result from the heavy rainfall.  Tropical Storm Cristobal is likely to strengthen once the center of circulation moves back over the Gulf of Mexico on Friday.

Tropical Depression Three Strengthens Into Tropical Storm Cristobal

Former Tropical Depression Three strengthened into Tropical Storm Cristobal on Tuesday.  At 12:15 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located at latitude 19.3°N and longitude 92.7°W which put it about 75 miles (120 km) northwest of Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico.  Cristobal was moving toward the southwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz, Mexico

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane investigating former Tropical Depression Three on Tuesday found sustained winds of 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Cristobal.  The formation of Tropical Storm Cristobal on June 2 is the earliest date for the formation on the third named storm over the Atlantic Basin (including the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico) in the historical record.

The reconnaissance plane found that the circulation around Tropical Storm Cristobal was continuing to get better organized.  More thunderstorms were forming near the center of circulation.  Bands of showers were revolving around the center of Cristobal.  Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the east of the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Cristobal will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge centered over the western Caribbean Sea.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be great enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Cristobal is likely to strengthen during the next 12 to 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will move around the northwestern part of a larger counterclockwise circulation sometimes called a Central American Gyre (CAG).  The CAG will steer Cristobal toward the southwest during the next few hours.  Tropical Storm Cristobal will move more toward the south on Tuesday night.  The larger CAG will slowly contract around the circulation of Cristobal during the next several days.  Tropical Storm Cristobal will meander slowly near the south coast of the Bay of Campeche while the CAG contracts.  Eventually, a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean will steer Cristobal northward toward the U.S.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will mix cooler water to the surface while it meanders over the southern Bay of Campeche.  The cooler water will reduce the energy available to Cristobal and the tropical storm could weaken during the middle of the week.  Tropical Storm Cristobal will weaken even more if the center of circulation moves over land.  Cristobal will drop heavy rain over Campeche, Tabasco and eastern Veracruz.  Prolonged heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Depression Three Develops Over Bay of Campeche

Tropical Depression Three developed over the Bay of Campeche on Monday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Three was located at latitude 19.6°N and longitude 91.2°W which put it about 55 miles (90 km) north-northeast of Carmen, Mexico.  The depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the portion of the coast from Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz.  

The remnants of the center of circulation of former Tropical Storm Amanda moved northward across Honduras and emerged over the eastern Bay of Campeche on Monday afternoon.  The National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Three and initiated advisories on the system.

More thunderstorms began to form on the northern side of Tropical Depression Three after the center of circulation moved over the eastern Bay of Campeche.  More thunderstorms were developing near the center.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms that included the remnants of the the circulation of former Tropical Storm Amanda were revolving around the center of the depression.

Tropical Depression Three will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The ridge will produce northerly winds which will blow toward the top of the depression.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Depression Three is likely to intensify into a tropical storm on Tuesday.

Tropical Depression Three will move around the northern side of a larger counterclockwise circulation sometimes called a Central American Gyre (CAG).  The CAG will steer the depression toward the west-northwest during the next 12 to 24 hours.   The depression could move toward the southwest on Tuesday when it moves around the northwestern part of the CAG.  On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Three could approach the coast around the southern Bay of Campeche.   The depression could drop heavy rain over Campeche, Tabasco and eastern Veracruz.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Amanda Drops Heavy Rain on Guatemala and El Salvador

Tropical Storm Amanda dropped heavy rain on parts of Guatemala and El Salvador on Sunday.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Amanda was located at latitude 14.2°N and longitude 90.4°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) south-southeast of Guatemala City, Guatemala.  Amanda was moving toward the north-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings remained in effect for the entire coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador.

The circulation around former Tropical Depression Two-E strengthened on Sunday morning as it approached the coast of Guatemala and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Amanda.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) on the eastern side of Amanda.  Winds on the western side of the circulation were mostly less than tropical storm force.

The heaviest rain in Tropical Storm Amanda was falling near the center of circulation and in bands on the eastern side of the circulation.  Tropical Storm Amanda was located on the eastern side of a much larger counterclockwise circulation that is sometimes called a Central American Gyre (CAG).  The CAG will steer Amanda toward the north during the next 24 to 36 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Amanda will move across Guatemala toward the southern Yucatan peninsula.  Amanda will drop locally heavy rain over parts of El Salvador, Guatemala, Belize and eastern Mexico.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

The lower level part of the circulation of Tropical Storm Amanda will weaken while the tropical storm moves over land.  The circulation of Amanda that is above the surface could move over the Bay of Campeche early next week.  A new tropical cyclone could form over the Bay of Campeche if that happens.  The National Hurricane Center is indicating that there is a 50% probability of the formation of a tropical cyclone over the Bay of Campeche during the next five days.

TD 20-E Strengthens into Tropical Storm Raymond

Tropical Depression Twenty-E strengthened into Tropical Storm Raymond on Friday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Raymond was located at latitude 14.1°N and longitude 108.8°W which put it about 610 miles (985 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Raymond was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Raymond exhibited greater organization on Friday morning.  More thunderstorms developed close to the center of circulation.  Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  The distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  More of the stronger thunderstorms were forming in bands in the eastern half of the circulation.  There were fewer thunderstorms in the bands around the western side of Raymond.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the eastern half of the tropical storm.  Wind speeds on the western side of the circulation were mostly less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Raymond will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Raymond will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  it will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Raymond is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen into a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Raymond will move around the western side of a ridge of high pressure over Mexico.  The ridge will steer Raymond toward the north during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Raymond will move slowly toward the southern tip of Baja California.

Tropical Depression Twenty-E Forms South of Baja California

Tropical Depression Twenty-E formed south of Baja California on Thursday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-E was located at latitude 13.0°N and longitude 108.4°W which put it about 690 miles (1110 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  The depression was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h.(8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of a low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Thursday night and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Twenty-E.  The circulation around the depression was still organizing.  Thunderstorms were forming near the center of the depression.   The thunderstorms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the depression.  Other thunderstorms were developing in bands around the circulation.

Tropical Depression Twenty-E will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next day or two.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The depression is likely to strengthen into a tropical storm on Friday.

Tropical Depression Twenty-E will move around the western end of a ridge of high pressure over Mexico.  The ridge will steer the depression toward the north.  On its anticipated track the depression will move slowly toward the southern tip of Baja California.

Tropical Storm Priscilla Develops Near West Coast of Mexico

Tropical Storm Priscilla developed near the west coast of Mexico on Sunday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Priscilla was located at latitude 18.6°N and longitude 104.0°W which put it about 55 miles (90 km) southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Priscilla was moving toward the north at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was  1004 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico.

A distinct low level center of circulation formed within a cluster of thunderstorms near the west coast of Mexico on Sunday and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Priscilla.  Thunderstorms were forming near the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were also developing and the bands were revolving around the center of Priscilla.  Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the north of the tropical storm.  The circulation around Priscilla was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Priscilla will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  The center of Priscilla will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will be in a region where the upper level winds are not too strong and there will not be a lot of vertical wind shear.  However, the center of Tropical Storm Priscilla will be very close to Mexico.  The circulation around Priscilla will begin to pull drier air from over the land into the tropical storm.  Tropical Storm Priscilla could strengthen during the next few hours, but it is likely to weaken quickly when the center moves over Mexico.

Tropical Storm Priscilla will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high will steer Priscilla on a track that will be a little to the west of straight north.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Priscilla will make landfall on the west coast of Mexico between Tecoman and Manzanillo within a few hours.  Priscilla could drop locally heavy rain which could cause flash floods in some places.