Subtropical Storm Alberto moved over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto was located at latitude 23.9°N and longitude 84.6°W which put it about 120 miles (195 km) west-southwest of the Dry Tortugas. Alberto was moving toward the north-northeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.
Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Dry Tortugas and the portions of the coast from Bonita Beach to Anclote River and from the Aucilla River to the border between Alabama and Mississippi. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect from the border between Alabama and Mississippi to the Mouth of the Pearl River.
The circulation of Subtropical Storm Alberto remained poorly organized on Saturday. Several low level centers dissipated and new low level centers of circulation developed on the southwestern edge of an area of thunderstorms northeast of the center. Even though the center of circulation reorganized several times, the pressure did decrease slowly during the day. The strongest wind speeds were occurring in the area of thunderstorms northeast of the center of circulation. The winds were weaker south and west of the center.
Subtropical Storm Alberto will move through an environment that will become more favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Alberto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. An upper level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico was producing southwesterly winds which were blowing across the top of the circulation. Those winds were causing significant vertical wind shear which was inhibiting the intensification of Subtropical Storm Alberto. The shear was also preventing thunderstorms from persisting near the center of circulation, which was keeping Alberto from making a transition to a tropical storm. An upper level ridge was forming over Florida. The ridge was starting to enhance upper level divergence to the east of Subtropical Storm Alberto.
The upper level trough will gradually evolve into a closed upper level low. The vertical wind shear will slowly decrease during the next several days. When the shear decreases, it will allow Subtropical Storm Alberto to strengthen. Less vertical wind shear will also let thunderstorms persist closer to the center of circulation. If thunderstorms persist near the center, then Alberto could exhibit the structure of a tropical cyclone and it could be designated as a tropical storm. Subtropical Storm Alberto could intensify into a hurricane over the northern Gulf of Mexico.
The reformations of the low level center of circulation increase the uncertainty of track forecasts. The upper level trough is likely to steer Subtropical Storm Alberto toward the north on Sunday. Alberto could turn more toward the north-northwest when the trough changes into an upper level low. On its anticipated track Subtropical Storm Alberto could approach the coast of the northern Gulf of Mexico within 48 hours. Alberto could be a strong tropical storm or a hurricane at that time.
Subtropical Storm Alberto will be capable of causing minor wind damage when it makes landfall. Alberto will drop locally heavy rain north and east of the center of circulation. Flood Watches have been issued for several states in the southeastern U.S. The Gulf Coast is very susceptible to storm surge. There will be increases in the water level along the eastern and northern Gulf Coast where the winds blow water toward the shore.